Assessing the Trade Value of the Boston Celtics: Part 2

http://redsarmy.com/2015/02/16/assessing-the-trade-value-of-the-boston-celtics-part-2/



Assessing the Trade Value of the Boston Celtics: Part 2
Geoffrey Simpson


Assessing the Trade Value of the Boston Celtics: Part 2



The NBA trade deadline is coming up this Thursday, so before we get into the Celtics trade value, let’s take a look at a couple of rumors. There has been some support for the Celtics to become buyers at the deadline, but they should only do so for players that have the potential to be a building block of a playoff contender.


That means trading for a guy like Enes Kanter or Isaiah Thomas is not good move. Kanter is a nice player, but his per 36 averages (18 and 10) are not all that much better than Tyler Zeller’s (17 and 10), and Zeller is probably a better defender. Thomas would be interesting, as he addresses a number of the Celtics immediate weaknesses, particularly on offense. He can score, create and get to the foul line for a small guy. Thomas is also one of the best catch and shoot players in the league, meaning he can even play off the ball on offense if the Celtics want Smart to share ball handling responsibilities. His contract is a friendly one for a guy who would probably average 20 a night on the Celtics. Still, I’m not sure Thomas moves the needle a whole lot and Danny Ainge may feel the same way. Thomas could have been had in the offseason at a cheap price, but instead Danny gave Avery Bradley more money than Thomas is currently making for the same number of years. At 5’9, Thomas doesn’t match up well with NBA point guards defensively. He may be versatile on the offensive end with his ability to play the 1 or 2, but defensively he is not versatile at all, and has struggled to guard his own position.

Can you win with Thomas as your starting point guard? Sure, you could probably make it as the 7th or 8th seed in the East, but Thomas is not a building block type of player for a contending team. The Suns are barely holding onto a playoff spot and Thomas is the third best point guard on that team. He would help the Cs score the ball, but that isn’t saying a whole lot. He has also been labeled as a selfish player at times in his career and is not the kind of guy who is looking to keep the ball moving. Right now that’s a huge part of the Celtics identity on offense. Make the simple play, find the open man and take shots guys are capable of making. Accompany that with the fact that he is not a good or versatile defender on the perimeter (another important part of the Celtics identity) and Thomas simply isn’t a good fit. I understand the temptation given his contract and the fact that he’d be a significant talent upgrade, but trading for Thomas is the exact short-sighted move Danny Ainge needs to avoid.

Don’t mistake my argument against Thomas as a pro-tanking point of view. Brad Stevens and the Celtics players should do everything they can to make the playoffs. Winning games means that the team’s young players are developing and playing well while learning how to win. I’m a proponent of establishing a winning culture, but it’s Ainge’s job as general manager to keep one eye towards the future. The reason you stockpile draft picks is not to sell them for guys who can help you be a 7 or 8 seed, it’s to get a top player for a championship contending team.

A guy who I’ve wanted the Celtics to target is Goran Dragic. He’s a better player than Thomas, and if the Suns can’t find a trade partner for the 5’9 guard, Dragic may be available for a first round pick. If Dragic is open to re-signing in Boston, I would absolutely give up the Clippers or Mavs pick for him. However, given the risk involved with his free agent status and the contract he will garner this offseason, giving up a lottery pick is too high of a price for Boston. Dragic, unlike Thomas, can be a top two or three player on a championship contending team, in my opinion, and would fit perfectly with the Celtics pace and space strategy and pick and pop big men. If we knew he was serious about re-signing with Boston, I’d be willing to give up a first and give him a max deal, but the fact of the matter is we don’t know. That being said my message to Danny (who definitely won’t read this) is if he can get Dragic for the Clippers pick and the 76ers 2nd rounder from this season, that’s a risk worth taking.

Zach Lowe wrote today that the Celtics have had exploratory talks about Ty Lawson, but I don’t see the Celtics making a move for him. Dragic fits well next to Smart because he can also play off the ball. Lawson, on the other hand, is a true point guard. I would also prefer Dragic at, say, 4/$80M than Lawson for the next two years at $12/13M and here’s why: Lawson for two years after this one gives the Celtics a small window before he looks to cash in when he is 30 years old. I’m not sure I would want to give a guy who depends so much on his quickness a multi-year deal at 30. A similar risk is run with Dragic (will be 29 when he signs his deal this summer), but he does not rely on quickness and athleticism nearly as much. His versatility and efficiency as a scorer make him a more valuable player than Lawson, in my mind, but that argument could go either way. Keep in mind that acquiring Lawson would come at a higher cost than Dragic. Denver is reportedly seeking a “godfather” offer. It may take multiple firsts and another player to get Denver to consider a deal. No thanks.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that the Celtics will most likely let the deadline pass without making a major move. For me, that is fine. There may be a deal out there that we don’t know about, and Ainge has said he will be opportunistic, but if all that is available is the quick fix trade, let’s roll with the guys we have. At the end of the day, the ability to build a championship contender will more so be based on the development of the young players on this team rather than the quick fix trade. If the young core of players make progress in their developments, they will not only make the Cs a better team, but also boost their trade value.

Speaking of the trade value of Boston’s core players, here is part 2 of assessing the Celtics trade value. If you need a refresher on the rules, or missed part one, check it out here.

7. Jae Crowder-Crowder was initially ranked 6 for me, but that was probably over-valuing him some. His contract is cheap for the rest of this season, and the Cs will most likely make a qualifying offer and try to keep him. Still, his immediate trade value is not all that high. Some team might be willing to make a deal to add him to the rotation, but the Celtics wouldn’t get a whole lot back.


6.Avery Bradley-I don’t think anyone is calling the Celtics up and asking about Bradley, but if the Celtics were to shop him, they might be able to get an OK piece in return. While his contract was criticized, it won’t look so bad after the cap goes up after next season as it inevitably will. Bradley has his flaws, but he has proven he can be part of a championship contending team. I could see him coming off the bench as a third guard on a contender and bringing energy on the defensive end.

With that being said, it would have to be the right fit. Bradley has proven he cannot play the point guard spot, and at just 6’2, that’s a deterrent for a lot of teams. Bradley’s offensive game is more or less limited to catch and shoot at this point, and he has been inconsistent with his decision making coming off screens and hand-offs.

Bradley’s value right now is as a defender, and that’s his reputation across the league. A team could potentially give up an interesting piece to get him, but I doubt he goes anywhere unless it’s part of a larger deal. The Celtics like Bradley more than Celtics fans like Bradley. Brad Stevens clearly trusts him, calling plays for him down the stretch, and Ainge made a statement in what he wants the team’s identity to be by inking Bradley to 4/$32M and drafting Marcus Smart.

5. Tyler Zeller-Zeller was the steal of the offseason for the Celtics, seeing as they basically got him for free. He has continued to improve throughout the season, even after many expected him to struggle post Rajon Rondo. At this point, Zeller is a solid backup center on most teams in the league with potential to be a low-end starting center. But 7-footers are valuable in the NBA, and Zeller has the skill to go along with his height. He will continue to improve both defensively and offensively as he continues to get stronger, and will continue to be dangerous on the pick and roll given his good hands and touch around the rim.

Zeller is under team control for at least the rest of this season and next before becoming a restricted free agent. The Celtics should hold onto him for now, as his value continues to rise. While he doesn’t have the upside of a guy like Kelly Olynyk or Jared Sullinger, he could be a solid role player on a contending team.

4. Kelly Olynyk-The Celtics are high on Olynyk’s offensive ability and potential, and Kelly has made strides this year on both ends of the floor. He’s one of the Cs more consistent shooters and now uses his shot to set himself up to attack the basket. He also shows good feel for the game with his passing. He still has room to improve on the offensive end, particularly in the post. I’m not sure he’ll ever be a guy you through it down to on the block consistently, but he needs to be able to take advantage of mismatches down low. I’d like to see him develop a little face up game and use his shot fake to get defenders off balance down low.

On the other hand, there are questions about Olynyk’s defensive ability. He has improved this year and with his high basketball IQ he could potentially be an average defender. At this point it remains unclear what position he is, as he struggles to guard centers due to his lack of strength and can’t chase around most 4s with his lack of quickness. But Olynyk is not as bad of a defender as most people think, and he’s shown flashes of making great defensive rotations and contesting a shooter at the rim.

Olynyk could be a piece in the Celtics pursuit of a superstar, but at this point it seems the Celtics value him more than other teams do. If they believe he’s going to continue to improve, then his trade value will only increase as time moves on. Olynyk has a team option after next season and will be a restricted free agent the year after that.

3. Jared Sullinger-Sully gets the nod over Olynyk because he has proven he can be a solid NBA player for a longer stretch while also having the potential to get better. He could step in right now and contribute on most teams in the league with his rebounding ability on both ends of the floor. Looking to the future, he’s a paleo diet and an improved jumpshot away from being one of the better stretch power forwards in the league.

Sully will be a restricted free agent after next season, making this offseason a big one for him. If he makes strides with his weight and jumpshot, he could either be a big part of the Celtics future or a key trade chip, even with his impending restricted free agent status.

James Young2. James Young-This might be the most controversial pick, but ask yourself this: if Jared Sullinger or Kelly Olynyk were on a different team and they offered the Celtics one of the two straight up for James Young, would you do it? I wouldn’t.


Young can flat out shoot the ball. At the very worst, he’s going to be a lengthy wing who can stretch the floor. Those guys fit on any team in the league. He also has upside as a defender with his length at 6’7 (7’ wingspan) and as he gets stronger and adjusts to the NBA game, he’ll only get better defensively. Brad Stevens has made it clear to the rookie that defense is where he needs to improve to get playing time, and given Young’s work ethic, I doubt he’ll ignore his coach.

On offense, Young has potential to be more than just a spot shooter. He has nice touch in the lane and is athletic and long enough to finish at the rim against bigger defenders. He will need to improve his ball handling and ability to use screens to make the leap from shooter to scorer, but at 19 years old, he has time to do it. If I’m the Celtics, I’m not including Young in any deal unless it’s a homerun type of offer that they can’t pass up to get a superstar player.

1. Marcus Smart-Smart comes in as the Celtics most valuable trade asset even as a rookie mainly because he is already an elite defender at just 20 years old. His instincts and ability at that end of the floor are superb and will continue to improve. Smart even locked up James Harden, perhaps the best offensive player in the league, when the Rockets came to Boston. Yes, he does gamble off the ball a little too much, but he’s also a rookie learning NBA defense. Once he figures out that players can shoot the ball too well to gamble as much in the NBA, he could be in the running for a defensive player of the year at some point.

On offense, Smart continues to improve. He has shown good instincts as a passer and has demonstrated the ability to knock down shots, addressing his two biggest question marks coming into the NBA. As he gets better at reading NBA defenses he will attack the rim and get to the foul line more often. His offensive numbers look underwhelming, but the Cs are more than 7 points better per 100 possessions with Smart on the floor, and he holds the best offensive rating on the team among the guys who have played at least 300 minutes.

Smart and Young are the building blocks of the future, with Sullinger, Olynyk, Zeller, Bradley and Crowder in secondary roles. Smart is a guy the Celtics don’t want to trade unless it’s for a player who is top 5ish at their position (depending on the position) and on the right contract, but those guys don’t get traded often. Young is slightly below that in value. I’d include him in a deal that would bring back a star, but I wouldn’t feel great about losing him. I would feel comfortable including Sullinger or Olynyk in a deal at this point, but I’m not sure other teams view either as a young player they can build around, which is what most teams look for when trading a really good player. Of course, Ainge has all of those draft picks to work with as well. I’ll take a stab at valuing those in part 3.



bob



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For the life of me, I wish I could get more excited about the prospects for Kelly Olynyk's future.  Perhaps it's only a physical resemblance (without all the hair), but he reminds me of Brad Lohaus.  Brad lasted 11 seasons in the league, playing 15 mpg and averaging 6 ppg and 3 rpg.  Kelly already surpasses those figures, and I don't imagine he's any worse a defender than Brad was.

So I guess my perceived similarity is that I considered both of them heavy-legged and low on the agility scale.  I know neither of them could stop on a dime; but I don't believe either could stop on a five foot pathway of $20 bills.

I can't see that type of player exceeding a certain ceiling in today's NBA.  I'm not sure what Kelly's ceiling is, but it's tough for me to see him being a mainstay on a championship team down the road.  He's got a great stroke.  He even attacks the basket cleverly.  Perhaps, given his basketball smarts, he'll make a fool of me, and I wish him all the luck in the world.

Sam

Sam,

I think Kelly's upsiade is higher than sully's myself.

I see them both as at best average defenders in the NBA.

Sully is a below the rim offensive player with below average range on his shot. I like him, butsee him as a career 14 pt/ 8 reb guy. Can we win a championship with him at PF...sure thing!

Kelly I see as no bettr or worst on defense, and also a below the rim inside player. BUT his outside shot is alreay at a high level. I think his passing is also better than Sully overall, though Sully is a better rebounder. I see Kelly as a 16 pt/6 reb career type player. can we win a championship with Kelly at PF, sure thing!

can we win with both on the team?

Not both starting!

Sully can move people and clear space in the paint, as we saw against the Hawks hes a beastly rebounder. He has potential to be a Zack Randolph/Adrian Dantley type, hes just playing out of position because hes constantly battling the 7 footers that we have to keep away from KO.

He can battle those 7 footers way stronger and better than KO. KO is a wasted pick, his defense is non existent as foes can go over him, around him or through him fairly easily. At least Sully will bull rush you, hes hard to move and can fight you for position.

Cow and Sam,

Your points relating to Olynyk are quite just if you are going to judge him right now and might not be willing to
give him some more time to develop.

I believe that this kid is much better at everything than he was last year.  His ankle injury is very likely to make this season look like a loss if he ends up limping the rest of the season, but until hurt he was making distinct progress in every part of his game from his rookie season.

That does not mean that he is an all-star yet by any means, but it does show that he is very capable of getting better again next season.  He will be stronger and quicker again next year as he is clearly, body wise, a late bloomer which is not completely uncommon for a guy who was still a point guard only 8 years ago and now is a 7 footer.

I will predict that he will weigh between 250 and 260, will be much quicker and stronger as a result before his fourth year in the league begins.  He will look much better and have a lot more physical confidence nearer the basket on both offense and defense.