Has The NBA Left Rajon Rondo Behind?

http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball/2015/03/01/has-the-nba-left-rajon-rondo-behind/4DAAs582tEmtff2QE0sWvN/story.html



Has the NBA Left Rajon Rondo Behind?




Is Rajon Rondo compatible with the increasing league emphasis on ball movement, three-pointers and free throws?



By Nik DeCosta-Klipa @NikDeCostaKlipa
Boston.com Staff | 03.01.15 | 5:39 PM



It hasn’t been a good week for Rajon Rondo. And with the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in town this past weekend, it’s probably fortunate that the former Celtic is now a Dallas Maverick. As far away as Dallas is from the MIT campus, Rondo might be even more distant from the style and direction analytics is leading the NBA.

You don’t need advanced stats to see that things aren’t going well for Rondo and the Mavs. After getting into a shouting match with head coach Rick Carlisle—reportedly for ignoring a play call—the point guard was benched for the final 20 minutes of the Mavs’ win against the Toronto Raptors. The argument continued after the game in the locker room and Rondo was eventually suspended for Wednesday trip (and loss) to Atlanta.

He returned to the lineup Saturday, putting up 8 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 turnovers and a team-worst -22 in plus-minus as the Mavericks lost 104-94 against the usually hapless Brooklyn Nets.

Though the Mavs are still fifth in the West, since acquiring Rondo their offense has declined notably. A month into the season, Dallas was scoring at a blistering league-record pace of 115.2 points per 100 possessions. According to Grantland’s Zach Lowe, the team’s offense lived off lots of corner threes, rapid ball movement and highly efficient shots in the paint. At the time of Lowe’s writing, the Mavs were “shooting 68.2 percent in the restricted area on an above average number of attempts.”

In Rondo’s first 21 games with the Mavs, their points per 100 possessions dropped to 106.0. With Rondo in the lineup, the offense scored more than 10 points less per 100 possessions than it did with Jameer Nelson.

The Mavs’ offense never needed Rondo. They already had a great pick-and-roll, slash-and-kick spacing offense and Rondo’s skillset overlaps with the one ball-dominant guard, Monta Ellis, they started.

According to the NBA’s player tracking statistics, during Nelson’s 23 games at point guard, he averaged 4.0 minutes of possession a game. In the 26 games Rondo has played for the Mavs, his ball possession has bumped up to 5.1 (the same 1.1 minute difference as between Kobe Bryant and Dennis Schroder).

ESPN Dallas’s Tim MacMahon wrote that because Rondo is notoriously weak from outside (for a point guard, at least), his “shooting woes allow defenses to dare him to beat them from the perimeter, screwing up the spacing for everybody else.”

This is as an existential problem for Rondo as it is a tactical problem for the Mavs. NBA teams are increasingly emphasizing the “three and key” offense, triggered by advanced stats showing three-pointers—particularly corner threes—and close-range shots to be the most efficient.

The Spurs just won the title on the strategy of maximizing their corner three opportunities and eliminating the same shot for opponents. Likewise, the Atlanta Hawks are currently leading the East running a similar motion offense dependant on creating layups and open shots. It’s no coincidence Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer used to be an assistant to Spurs coach Gregg Popovich.

In January, Kirk Goldsberry wrote an article titled “The Future of Basketball is Here, and It Looks a Lot Like James Harden.” He wrote about how Houston’s general manager Daryl Morey (an NBA nerd apostle who also co-chairs the Sloan conference) wants Harden running an offense explicitly designed to get close shots, corner threes and free throws.

Harden led the league in assisted three-pointers and assisted corner three-pointers, as well produced (made plus assisted) three-pointers. The Rockets currently score more than 34 percent of their points from threes. They also avoid taking inefficient shots, scoring less than six percent of points from mid-range two-pointers. Harden also gets to the line 9.5 times a game and shoots just under 87 percent.

It’s an offense explicitly based off shot efficiency analytics that has turned Harden into a top MVP candidate.

Meanwhile, if the Rockets represent the future, Rondo represents the past. He avoids the free throw line like it’s a disease, and for him it actually might be. He’s shooting 28 percent from the stripe with the Mavs. Twenty-eight percent. Only 15 percent of his points come from threes, while nearly a quarter came from mid-range jumpers.

The only team with a higher mid-range rate are the New York Knicks and the only other teams with a rate more than 20 percent are the Wizards, Hornets, Lakers, Pacers and Timberwolves. I’ll wait if you want to look up their records.

It should then be no surprise that Carlisle didn’t necessarily want to hand over play-calling duties to mid-range happy Rondo. To paraphrase Goldsberry, the stats say it’s better to be even slightly inefficient from an efficient area, than to be efficient from an inefficient area.

As McMahon wrote after the Brooklyn loss, “the Mavs’ biggest issue is figuring out how to make the square peg that is Rondo fit into the round hole that is the point guard’s role in Carlisle’s system.”

However,in 2015, that round hole might not just be the Mavericks. For Rondo, the mismatch might be with the future of the NBA.



bob



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for a bit their I was thinking Rondo was HOF material and even perhaps worthy of having his Jersey hanging from the rafters.

While it looks as though Rondo might be doing a mii implosion I wouldn't write him off just yet.. the talent is there. as some other fella I know says, "come talk to me in april"

Interesting take on a sad state of affairs for Rondo. A couple of things caught my eye.

In Rondo’s first 21 games with the Mavs, their points per 100 possessions dropped to 106.0. With Rondo in the lineup, the offense scored more than 10 points less per 100 possessions than it did with Jameer Nelson.

Ouch. When you're doing significantly worse than Jameer Nelson, things are not going well.

Meanwhile, if the Rockets represent the future, Rondo represents the past. He avoids the free throw line like it’s a disease, and for him it actually might be. He’s shooting 28 percent from the stripe with the Mavs.

He's made three -- count 'em, three -- free throws in 2015, and we're into March. Part of that is that he's lousy at shooting free throws -- he's 3-15 or 20.0% during that time -- and another part is that he avoids getting to the free throw line because he knows he's so bad there -- he's has only 0.7 free throw attempts per game since the first of the year.

Rondo needs a system that accentuates his assets and masks his liabilities, but he's found the exact opposite in Dallas.

dbrown4 wrote:I have to begin to wonder what Cuban had in mind when he pulled the trigger on this deal.  Certainly he spoke with his GM, players, etc. before stepping up to the plate.  

I must be watching too much Shark Tank because he is very shrewd on there.  And he does have a championship under his belt.  Sounds like someone rang his doorbell only to have him open the door and see the proverbial flaming bag o' poo on the porch.

db  

dbrown,

That "someone" is called Trader Ainge.


bob


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It's easy to Monday morning QB about Rondo's play so far with the Mavericks.
As shown by this ESPN article most felt at the time that the Mavericks made a very good trade.
Sometimes trades look good but when players get hurt or underperform, the trade might not work out as expected.
I think all should wait to see how Dallas does in the playoffs with Rondo.
Rondo has a reputation of stepping up his play in the playoffs.
To me, it's too early to say what team got the best of that trade.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-141218/breaking-rajon-rondo-trade-dallas-mavericks

Rondo's calling card for years has been the assist. About 2 years ago I posted an article condemning the individual assist as being the most useless of all stat line statistics. This, combined with his short comings as a scorer, have rendered his game to run of the mill caliber. Cousy was the first scorer-assist player. Rondo has never added the scoring to his game.

swish

The whole premise is that the new "analytics" based approach is truly the way to go. Not saying it isn't, but maybe it's a little premature to jump to that conclusion. Maybe I am wrong, but the only two teams to win with that approach have been the Spurs and Mavs. Earlier Spurs incarnations did not necessarily play that way. The Lakers didn't. Detroit didn't. Pierce/Garnett/Alle Celtics didn't. Jordan's bulls didn't. Hakeem's Rockets didn't. I could go on, but i think it would be foolish to say any of those teams would not be competitive in todays nba. It wouldn't surprise me if some team eventually decides to take a more old-fashioned approach and is successful - with everyone doing the same thing, sometimes it is better to take a totally different approach. I make no claims about which style is "better" or "more aesthetically pleasing", just noting that players like Rondo, Bass, and others can still be effective, and might end up being cheap given the value on analytics these days. There is more than one way to skin a cat.

At the very least though, I will be surprised if Rondo gets a max deal (though Jimmy Buss could easily make a fool of me).

Lets all pile on while he is down boys.

Assists arent important?
Rondos time has past?

And now we are using this as an example to pile on the use of analytics? LOL.

As TJ said, lets see what the playoffs bring. You put a healthy full attacking Rondo on the court feeding Dirk, Ellis, Parsons and throwing ally-ops to Chander and I dont know too many teams that would want to face the Mavs.

mrkleen09 wrote:Lets all pile on while he is down boys.

Assists arent important?
Rondos time has past?

And now we are using this as an example to pile on the use of analytics?  LOL.

As TJ said, lets see what the playoffs bring.  You put a healthy full attacking Rondo on the court feeding Dirk, Ellis, Parsons and throwing ally-ops to Chander and I dont know too many teams that would want to face the Mavs.

Cowens says we don't need a center, Mrkleen quotes TJ to substantiate his point.

It really is the coming apocalypse.


bob


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bobheckler wrote:

mrkleen09 wrote:Lets all pile on while he is down boys.

Assists arent important?
Rondos time has past?

And now we are using this as an example to pile on the use of analytics?  LOL.

As TJ said, lets see what the playoffs bring.  You put a healthy full attacking Rondo on the court feeding Dirk, Ellis, Parsons and throwing ally-ops to Chander and I dont know too many teams that would want to face the Mavs.

Cowens says we don't need a center, Mrkleen quotes TJ to substantiate his point.

It really is the coming apocalypse.


bob


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Can't we all just get along?

I love Rondo, hes my sons favorite player, but 3-15 from the line!!! unbelievable!! he must be about to set a record for fewest FT's of any starting guard in a season.....3 free throws whole season up to now, you've got to be kidding?

Cow, just to clarify, I said he's made three free throws (out of 15 attempts) since the start of the year, as in January 1, not the entire season. Three free throws made in 21 games is stunning enough.

All i can say is,Rajon plays with a great deal of heart, is a great passer, and can rebound with the best of them. I wish him well.

Meanwhile i just watched Ky beat GA. Towns is awesome, and Cauley-Stein is no slouch either. I 'd be thrilled for Boston to draft either of them Thrilled.

mrkleen09 wrote:Lets all pile on while he is down boys.

Assists arent important?
Rondos time has past?

And now we are using this as an example to pile on the use of analytics?  LOL.

As TJ said, lets see what the playoffs bring.  You put a healthy full attacking Rondo on the court feeding Dirk, Ellis, Parsons and throwing ally-ops to Chander and I dont know too many teams that would want to face the Mavs.

Agree 101%.

Celtics fans have become like the guy who justifies being split from his ex-girlfriend saying she's not that pretty anyway, even though she's still gorgeous. The stuff I'm seeing downgrading Rondo is getting to the point of absurdity.  When he was here, everyone was popping blood vessels trying to prove he was a top tier point guard, now he's not.  Unreal.

Rondo was/is an extraordinary role player who was able to really get up for big games and play to his strengths, tenacious defense, superb speed and quickness, court vision and he had the respect of the Big 3 to run the offense and they made him look good and he made them look good. We had great chemistry, for years Rondo was always the quickest guy on the floor.....now that isn't the case anymore, he was the young gunslinger moving in on J Kidds and Steve Nash's territory, now he has to reinvent himself and his game to a new core, so far the results have not been smooth as his deficiencies have been exposed. Good Luck Rondo, my son Johnny and I were thrilled by you many a night.

It's not a sin to articulate questions about a former Celtic, especially if one asked the same questions while he was a Celtic.  It had become increasingly obvious that he viewed the Celtics to be a team that needed to proceed in his image.

One needn't have been a basketball fan—only a proponent of logic—to see the warning signals.  When Brad kept saying publicly that he wanted an uptempo team and Abby faithfully reported his exhortations that the push the ball, and yet Rondo still walked the ball up the court, it doesn't take a Red Auerbach to recognize a conflict of some kind.  When Brad kept saying publicly that he wanted more of a motion offense and Rondo responded by holding the ball on the perimeter rather than creating motion himself (which Isaiah does, regardless of any other faults Isaiah may have), it doesn't take a Dr. Jack Ramsey to conclude that something strange is going on.  When Rondo made public statements that suggested strong defense was an option that he could avail himself at his whim, it didn't take a Popovich to realize that there was something wrong with that picture.  When Rondo consistently failed to improve (and arguably regressed) at a skill (free throws) that is pretty much required of a true closer at the NBA level, Alex Hannum didn't have to walk through that door to alert us that our pin ball wizard had a "TILT" sign on his backside.

None of that is intended to impugn Rondo's talents, which are considerable.  In some environments, they might be harnessed sufficiently to make it work.  For example, if he had three veteran hall of fame candidates keeping him on the straight and narrow.  In other situations, the very strength of his iron will could potentially become a positive.  And, by the way, when one of those candidates (Ray Allen) who was a self-proclaimed mentor for Rondo earlier in Rajon's career appeared to have became disenchanted enough for Rondo's presence to have been a factor in his (Ray's) departure, we didn't need Dr. Naismith to help us surmise that there was something wrong with that picture.

Talent shmalent.  The fit between Rondo and the Celtics had become suspect (to put it mildly).  Just as, in retrospect, the fit between Jeff Green and the Celtics had become questionable, when it became apparent that Brad Stevens was trying to get the team to become more aggressive and Jeff's considerable strengths were not headed by consistent aggressiveness.

I'll always be grateful to Rajon for that very first half-court, on-the-money, bounce pass that thrilled both Tommy Heinsohn (who still talks about it) and me.  It was that pass, as much as anything, that put Rondo on the path to become my favorite Celtic of the time.  But, if one thing is true in the NBA, it's that players evolve.  The direction of the evolution can differ from player to player.  I wish Rondo and Jeff good luck in their respective new affiliations.  And I'm glad the Celtics have veered off in their current direction.

Sam

The article claims that Rondo represents the past. I can't agree with that. How many pointguards who can't shoot have ever been capable of dominating a game like Rondo could at his best?

Play off of him conceding him the shot and he becomes like a football quarterback without a pass rush free to pick out his targets. Play him tight and he penetrates creating scoring chances.

Rondo's skills are unique and he is one of the most creative passers I've ever seen.

I got a huge kick watching him and wish him the best.

Great posts by everyone, its too bad he didn't have the ability of certain players to add something every year to their game, in other words, improve. J Kidd willed himself to become a deadly 3 point shooter, Bird, Magic, Kobe, Lebron, Pierce would always add to their game year after year. Rondo seemed so stubborn on the floor in a good way, was he too stubborn in real life to figure out he had to bend and adapt his game, add to it? The guy had so much natural talent, and skills he had to work on, a shame he couldn't overcome his flaws after all those years.

Unless Rondo shows some life down the stretch and in the playoffs, his best hoops are most certainly in the behind him IMHO. I've seen enough of Dallas's games and the "mesh" with others is just not there.

Rondo's greatest physical asset was his quickness. He has lost that edge and as Cowen's pointed out he has not adjusted to improve in other areas to compensate for it. I still have to wonder if the ACL injury took a greater toll than we might know. Perhaps as much mentally as physically at this point.

beat

Cow ...good point. The greats always added to their game in the summertime. Rondo's outside shot improved, marginally. That's about it. Still, I wish him well. Much gratitude Rajon for many happy memories.

Rondo played the worst game of his life last night....sad how things have turned for him.

I became so frustrated with Rondo's play that I posted (half-seriously) that I was willing to trade him for a bag of peanuts.

While I'm happy that Danny got more than that in return, I'm glad that Rondo is no longer our problem. Aside from not developing his game his main problem is not in his physical attributes: his main problem is in his head.

I see no reason to back-track on my opinion of Rondo and I'm not going to be hypocritical about it.

Berlin-T

Should Dallas go down 4-0 and Rondo continue to stink up the place.........who will take him? With every missed foul shot ( if he ever takes any ( and every bonehead turnover and tech foul the $$$$$ are just getting smaller and smaller. I would think any Max deal has left the building a while ago. Just to many other players that give a shit to waste money on one with this sort of attitude. What coach even wants to have that issue? Thank goodness he is not our problem anymore.

beat