Robert Upshaw = Major Fireworks

One of the arguments by people who would trade half our roster and draft pick stockpile for DeMarcus Cousins is that his moods and attitude swings are well worth the risk because he's pretty much the top center in the NBA, or at least top 3-5 by any standard.

You can't win without stars, and the egos and attitudes they bring is just part of package that includes contending for championships.

We saw that Stevens handled Rondo very well over the last couple years, which we now know was no easy task. And the well-known loose cannon Jordan Crawford was well contained by Stevens, who brought out the best in him before trading him, where he was subsequently pretty much blacklisted by the NBA because of his attitude. He ended up playing in China and finishing the year in DLeague with no call-up, despite his competence as a bench sparkplug. Rondo similarly finished the season out of the league, sent home in the middle of the playoffs.

We've even heard questions about Joel Embiid's attitude in Philly, where he had a blow up or two with the training staff after a few skipped rehab sessions. And yet he's still considered a future franchise center with major trade value.

At this point, having read the title of this thread, you might be thinking, "yeah but Robert Upshaw isn't a star".

Please get a load of this recent workout/interview video
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Robert-Upshaw-Workout-Video-4967

We already knew he was pretty much a world-class rim protector, as rate of blocked shots was much higher than WCStein's before Upshaw got kicked off the team.
But in the video above Upshaw shows clear evidence of advanced (and unblockable) offensive moves from all levels of the court. Of course it's a highlight video, but there's still much we can conclude from the natural, fluid, and mechanically sound moves he makes. The kid is a special talent, perhaps even right there with Karl Anthony Towns, or not far behind.

With all the talk about fireworks and roster-rattling trades this summer, Upshaw at #16 could be as big a move as any reasonable trade Danny could be looking at, and it wouldn't cost us quality talents like KO or Sully or our precious bundle of draft picks.

If Upshaw didn't work out at some point, the odds are good that we'd still be able to trade him mid-season in any year for a first rounder to a playoff team. Cleveland traded two first round picks for Mosgov, and Upshaw is probably just as good, TODAY.

The total financial cost of a four year contract for the 16th pick is roughly 10-12 million dollars, and I believe the last two years are not guaranteed, or at least the 4th year is a team option.

So I'm pretty sure the only guaranteed money is the first two years, 5-6 million dollars.
Upshaw could play like a 10 million dollar player as a rookie. These days, 10 million gets you a top backup center or a mid-low level starter.

This is the kind of relatively low risk gamble that can re-define a franchise. At 16, Upshaw would be both the best player available and the position/role we need most.
There will be other very talented players available, but most of them are power forwards, and the depth of power forwards is so incredible this year that there will be a power forward available at 28 who is not too much less of a prospect than the power forwards available at 16.

The Celtics could even double down and cover their Upshaw risk by drafting Dakari Johnson at 28 if he is still there, and if he isn't, we can still draft a rim protecting PF/Center hybrid like Montrezl Harrell, Cliff Alexander, Rakeem Christmas, or a few other guys.

Let's face it, the Celtics have a ton of draft picks, a roster full of solid role players who work hard, are young, and still have plenty of potential to get better.

We have the lockerroom, the coach, the Tradition, and the stockpile of assets that makes the risk of drafting Upshaw at 16 very minimal in the grand scheme of things.

As far as fireworks go, this is about as good a deal as you can get, with just as high a potential payoff as as any other deal available.

I am not a big follower of college basketball, but did see this guy play two years ago and he is a very good athlete with many skills for a big man.

He is in the high risk, possibly high reward category, but will be considered by Boston and probably all of the other clubs as well because no NBA team leaves any stone unturned.

Getting kicked off of two different college teams (especially wehn you are as talented as Upshaw is) is a pretty big red flag, but there is lots to be said for young men learning from their past mistakes and turning their lives around.

The Cs have lots of good things in place for any such guy to get plenty of help. It will be interesting to see if Ainge pursues this guy.

Rambone, I also like the Johnson kid from Kentucky and would not think that taking him at 28 would be a bad move. Even though neither he nor Upshaw are outside shooters who will play small forward or shooting guard, big men are always tougher to find than a shooter.

rambone,

I watched the video and listened to the interview, which was most of it.

He has a fairly smooth, flat-footed shot from mid-range and hit one from the corner too. Didn't know he had that. He also had a fantastic baseline spin move that could work in the pros.

What is dampening my enthusiasm, through no fault of his, is that his opponents were all obviously much smaller than him. Putting the ball on the floor and dribbling to the middle, without a real snap to it so the ball comes up quickly like it did, is a lot easier when everybody around you is smaller and slower. Try that against pros and they might pluck you as clean as a chicken.

He said all the right things during the interview. Admitted mistakes. Every time he was suggesting it was someone else's fault he caught himself and turned it back onto his own immaturity and mistakes. I've always said I learned a helluva lot more from being fired than I ever have from getting promoted.

He said he's spent the last few weeks getting his head and attitude straight, and is a little out of shape, got winded early in 5-on-5s. That might show up at the Combine and make him stay down at the end of the draft.

Solid beef on the hoof, this kid.


Projected by draftexpress @ #25, #50 by nbadraft.net and #27 by mynbadraft.com (by the Lakers).

Would you rather have Upshaw or Dakari Johnson, rambone?


bob



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Clyde, agreed. And I think Upshaw may be a better shooter than I previously knew/thought. I don't even think an Upshaw/Johnson frontcourt would be out of the question, at least in spurts.

And while KO seemed to play much better at center than pf according to some advanced stats, KO playing with Upshaw or Johnson behind him would be a completely different story.

Bob:

What is dampening my enthusiasm, through no fault of his, is that his opponents were all obviously much smaller than him. Putting the ball on the floor and dribbling to the middle, without a real snap to it so the ball comes up quickly like it did, is a lot easier when everybody around you is smaller and slower. Try that against pros and they might pluck you as clean as a chicken.

The thing is, he's going to be bigger than most everybody in the NBA as well. Guys like Dwight and Drummond are actually more like 6'10.5" in shoes. Any skill level on a 7 footer is going to work well in the NBA, and Upshaw showed a lot of it in that video. with a 9'5 standing reach and solid explosiveness, he could be a major major force in the NBA on both ends of the court.

To put his 9'5" standing reach in perspective, Rudy Gobert's standing reach is just two inches taller, and Upshaw weighs about 25-30 lbs more. That standing reach is Shaq level[edit: yup, exact same as Shaq]. 5 inches higher than Anthony Davis' standing reach. And Upshaw is much more mobile than a Roy Hibbert, and much stronger than a Rudy Gobert or JaVale McGee.

I would absolutely take Upshaw before Dakari, because of his better mobility and better coordination/touch.

But I also absolutely wouldn't hesitate to draft Dakari after drafting Upshaw.

big risk guy.

I've hawked him as worth the risk at 328 or #33. only because at those pick we really are not counting on him to be anything more than a BU. I've figured all along some team will find the risk/reward worth the pick late in the first round.

maybe its the same at #16, but there will probably be players still on the board with Upshaw's talent (though not size) and none of his issues. Perhaps in his interviews he has explainations for being kicked off two schools programs in the middle of the year, that makes sense to a team and he goes higher.

Dakari 's sheer size has probably ensured he's a late first now. But I doubt he'll ever be a starting center in the NBA myself.

either guy is fine with me at #28 or #33 if still on the board.

frankly, right now I'd rather see if Danny cna trade up to get Turner if he falls past #10. There might be a team (Utah,Charlotte) who may be interested in #16 & 28 along with a secdon reounder next year come draft day.

KDP, I think Upshaw is a top 10 talent even in this stacked draft. He was starting to get talked about as such before he got kicked off the team last year.

He's definitely got starting center talent, and I'd argue he's ready right now to start over Zeller, and you know I think Zeller is a solid starting center.

Upshaw is just about the whole package as a center prospect, and in the video linked above he shows some examples of elite stretch skills/scoring moves.

Looks like his agent is Bill Duffy, who had a tiff with Danny this year when Danny didn't cut Tayshaun Prince and traded him to Detroit instead.

I also don't recall seeing Upshaw on the Celtics list of 30 minute interviews yesterday.

Upshaw's off the court stuff drives hm down for me, IF I had to rank the "big men" in this years draft today.

1. Okafor
2. Towns
3. Porzingis
4. Cauley- Stein
5. Turner
6. Lyles
7. Kaminsky
8. Portis
9. Wood
10. Harrell
11. Looney
12. Dakari
13. Upshaw

upshaws talent alone puits him higher, but his birdbrain drops him.

rambone wrote:Looks like his agent is Bill Duffy, who had a tiff with Danny this year when Danny didn't cut Tayshaun Prince and traded him to Detroit instead.

I also don't recall seeing Upshaw on the Celtics list of 30 minute interviews yesterday.

rambone,

On the other hand, Duffy is Rondo's agent and he got Rondo what he thought he wanted.

Detroit didn't cut Prince either. Maybe Duffy has gotten over the fact that teams actually liked his client and didn't get him just to free him.

Besides, draft picks don't have a choice. You sign with the team who owns your rights, via draft or trade, or you never play in the NBA.


bob


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kdp59 wrote:Upshaw's off the court stuff drives hm down for me, IF I had to rank the "big men" in this years draft today.

1. Okafor
2. Towns
3. Porzingis
4. Cauley- Stein
5. Turner
6. Lyles
7. Kaminsky
8. Portis
9. Wood
10. Harrell
11. Looney
12. Dakari
13. Upshaw

upshaws talent alone puits him higher, but his birdbrain drops him.

Upshaw's talent alone puts him in the top 5 on your list, ahead of WCS. Maybe even ahead of Okafor. I think Porzingis and Turner both might be better than Okafor as well.

Bob, good points. Danny did Duffy right with the Rondo trade.

I still wonder if we would have been a better team, especially in the playoffs, had Prince been a good sport and been willing to stick around. 3 point shooting was our biggest weakness in the playoffs, and Prince is a big-time playoff performer.

Now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure Jameer Nelson would have helped us in that playoff series too.

I'm high on Bobby Portis at pick 16, and think he'd be a poor man's LaMarcus Aldridge with a very solid game in all aspects. I think he'd step right in to our starting lineup at PF.

But I think Upshaw is the Rudy Gobert of this draft, but arguably an even better overall prospect. Gobert still gets pushed around very easy, despite his great overall defensive impact.

Psychology-wise, I'd put Upshaw in the Big Baby Davis category. A knucklehead who can largely be contained by a good environment, even if he gets drunk once in a while and gets caught on video smashing a hotel phone.

But Upshaw could be as good as post 2008 KG for us.

well, perhaps we'll disagree about one point here, I don't see anyomne we pick at #16 starting right away on this team. Much less anyone at the #28 pick.

the HOPE would be that the #16 pick ends up becoming a starter down the road( year 2-3).

but then again I don't put much stock in 19-20 YO's being NBA ready right away.

Upshaw is 21. And if he didn't start right away over Zeller, it wouldn't be because of performance.

Here's one way to look at it:
Standing reach:
Upshaw: 9'5", same as Shaq.
Zeller: 8'8.5", 1/2" higher than James Young.

This stat is flawed because of level of competition, and because it was only half a season against non-conference opponents. But it's definitely worth noting to give you guys an idea of Upshaw's shot blocking instincts, which is different but related to length and athletic ability:

Blocks per 40 minutes, pace adjusted

Player 1: 5.4
Player 2: 5.8
Player 3: 2.7
Player 4: 4.8
Player 5: 7.0

1 is Nerlens Noel at Kentucky
2 is Anthony Davis ""
3 is WCS this past season
4 is WCS as a sophomore where he played center
5 is Robert Upshaw in his 19 games for Washington

The fact that Upshaw now shows some real offensive skills in the post and in face up situations just makes him an elite prospect.

i'd be willing to wager that Zeller plays more NBA minutes next year than Upshaw.no matter where each is playing.

if standing reach or size alone made a NBA player, then Bhulller would have been rookie of the year this year.

but I hope IF Upshaw turns out as well as you think, that Danny drafts him and we never look back for at least 10 years.

Even if Upshaw worked out for two years, we still might never look back.

One big F/A signing or trade for a stud, combined with Upshaw as at least a dominant rim protector off the bench and situationally starting, and we'll probably be contenders next year. 55-65 wins in the East.

One thing's for certain.  By the time of the draft, all of these guys are going to be household names in this forum.

Sam

I like him, might be considered a bit of a reach at 16, but if we don't take him there he could easily be gone by 28, at worst he could be another Perk, at best he could anchor a defense for the next 10 years and be some kind of version of Gobert or Jordan.

cowens/oldschool wrote:I like him, might be considered a bit of a reach at 16, but if we don't take him there he could easily be gone by 28, at worst he could be another Perk, at best he could anchor a defense for the next 10 years and be some kind of version of Gobert or Jordan.

at worst he could never play a game in the NBA.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25186793/five-things-to-know-about-the-nba-draft-combines-friday-session

Upshaw part:

3. Robert Upshaw does well in media session, but his stock is still all over the board

Upshaw held court with the media today, and overall came off positively in the session. He was polished, eloquent, and very well-put-together in his responses, blaming all of his past transgressions on himself, citing “bad decision-making and immaturity.” He also said that he's getting “some of the top help in the country” to surround and help with what has plagued him. That's a great sign, because Upshaw has an awful lot of talent that he can provide to an NBA team. If he had a clean background, it's fair to say that he would be a consensus lottery pick given the value on shot-blocking and protecting the rim in the NBA.

But that's obviously not the case, and that's why Upshaw is probably the most complicated situation in the 2015 NBA Draft. I've chatted with a few different scouts this week about him, and it's basically been all over the place. A pair of those guys even said that personally they do not consider him to be a draftable player. But it only takes one team, and that's what Upshaw is going to have to do: convince one team on what he's selling as far as being a reformed person. That could happen as early as the 20s or as late as the 50s. My guess is someone takes a shot on him, but it's tough to predict when that will happen right now

Here's some other fans talking about whether or not we should take him at 16.
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=78112.msg1884771#new

If the Celtics didn't have such a huge stockpile of picks, and if the big man depth wasn't so loaded at the 28th and 33rd pick this year, then taking the risk would make a lot less sense.

We're going to have up to 4 rookies this year, and like 4 first round picks next year. It's not like we have room for even more than half of them.

And if we were going to trade draft picks for a good center, it would probably take 2 or 3 first rounders, and they probably wouldn't even be (much) better than Upshaw.

Cleveland traded two first rounders for two years of Mozgov, who Upshaw should be just as good as as a rookie.

Last year the Pelicans traded their 2015 first round pick for a one year 15 million dollar rental of Omer Asik, who Upshaw will be better than from day one.

And of course, the Nets traded 3.5 first rounders for a one year rental of KG and Pierce, as well as taking JET's contract off our hands.

Right now there's a rumor, probably a false rumor, that Danny would trade a first rounder just to unload the last year of GWallace's contract.

And as much as I'd like to use pick 16 to upgrade power forward with all the good options at 16, like Portis and Looney and Wood, the fact is that we still have Sullinger in his contract year, where he will be on his best behavior and diet as he tries to score a big contract.

Drafting Upshaw might not make sense for any other team in the teens, but he sure would make a lot of sense for the Celtics.

And as much as I've been talking about Dakari Johnson, his max vertical leap number went down 9" from the Kentucky pro day number, which was obviously a big lie by Kentucky. And without the explosiveness I believed he had, his high foul rate makes a lot more sense, and his ability to overcome that while still bothering shots is very much in doubt.

I guess I was too high on him after all.

A gamble (if that is what some might call Upshaw) with a center at #16 is much more a logical choice than a gamble at any other position of need. The difference makers at the wing position will be long gone before draft pick number 16 happens.

There appear to be some decent options at the power forward around pick 16, but the Celtics have needed a center since even before Pierce and Garnett were traded who can play defense and gather defensive rebounds.

Are Portis and Wood going to be less of a risk in helping the team next year than a 'gamble' at the center position?

Centers are difficult to find, but Rambone makes some nice comparisons (Mozgov and Osik) of what you sometimes give up and get in trades for centers.

Rambone, kdp and anyone else:

Bottom line on all the often dizzying pros and cons of the centers (NOT "big men" but specifically centers) available in the draft, what percentage of likelihood do you believe there is that the Celtics will realistically be able to draft a center who will be the kind of impact defensive intimidator/rebounder who could become a major building block for the team's future?

Forget all the "ifs, ands an buts."  Obviously, there are a lot of qualifiers.  Please forget them for a moment.  And I'm not even looking for one or more names unless you care to volunteer them.  I'm just looking for a percentage of likelihood that they can draft the kind of impact defensive intimidator/rebounder who will realistically become a major building block AT THE CENTER POSITION for the team's future

Thanks,

Sam