Bulpett: Celtics' flexibility is envied at NBA draft camp

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics_nba/boston_celtics/2015/05/bulpett_celtics_flexibility_is_envied_at_nba_draft_camp




Bulpett: Celtics' flexibility is envied at NBA draft camp






Photo by: The Associated Press
Danny Ainge



Friday, May 15, 2015


By:  Steve Bulpett






CHICAGO — Danny Ainge might be one of the most popular people at the NBA’s draft combine.

And he’s not even here.

Though the Celtics president of basketball operations was checking into flight possibilities as late as yesterday morning, he chose to remain home to deal with his flu. So he worked his phone and watched the proceedings on television, entrusting the in-person discussions to assistant general manager Mike Zarren and director of player personnel (and son) Austin Ainge.

And what all are finding is that this could be an extremely eventful offseason for the Celtics as they head into the marketplace with a pocketful of picks and players.

It was hard for a reporter to move more than a few steps around the Quest Multisport Complex without one of the league’s executives asking questions about current Celts or wondering what Ainge the elder will do with all the draft picks he has at his disposal (two first-rounders and two in the second this year).

While the C’s aren’t currently scheduled to make their first pick until No. 16 — and it’s important to make that “currently” distinction — they appear to be hopeful they can make a move or series of moves that accelerates their rebuilding process.

Their possibilities will come into better focus after next Tuesday’s draft lottery. Teams with the top 14 picks will then know precisely where they will draft in the opening round and can, therefore, better assess the value of their selection, both to keep and in trade.

The Celts are biding their time and laying groundwork here, with, again, the feeling theirs will be one of the more active stores in the NBA mall.

“We’ve got a lot of opportunities to do something significant this summer,” said Zarren. “There’s going to be a lot of good free agents. We could move up in the draft. We’ve got assets of every kind that other teams like.

“It’s too early to really know what’s going to happen — the lottery hasn’t even happened yet — but we’ll be very, very active in all phases of front office work this summer.”

The trade market figures to explode in the coming year as the NBA salary cap increases greatly in the summer of 2016 when the new television deals are factored into the revenue stream that’s shared with the players.

That could loosen the screws on some teams that would otherwise be playing their cards close to the vest.

Said one league source, “The cap going up is going to make a big difference with a lot of teams, and it’s not just going to be next summer. Knowing that change is coming, teams aren’t going to be so afraid to take on big contracts this year. That’s going to make them more open to trades.”

The Celtics have just one contract in the double digit millions — the last year of Gerald Wallace at $10,105,855 — but just the fact that other clubs will be willing to take on other contracts could lead to an opening for Ainge and his staff.

“There’s a lot of teams that are going to be active this summer, so that makes for a more liquid trade market for us,” said Zarren.

Asked if said organizations will be more active than we usually see, Zarren nodded.

“I think so,” he said. “I think there’s just a lot of teams in the middle in the NBA right now, and they all sort of feel like they need to do something.

“That will create more opportunities for us, because we’ve got as many assets as any other team, if not more.”

That fluidity in the market could be very important to the Celtics’ chances to get much better next season. If they remain at 16 and 28 in the first round, they know they will not be able to draft anyone who could immediately fill one of their two major needs — a magnetic scorer and large interior defender.

Those picks could net them a rotation player or even someone who could grow into an impact entity down the line.

“Look, Boston still doesn’t know what they have in James Young,” said one general manager of the player the Celts took at 17 last June. “But what we do know is that if Young went back to school for another year, we’d be talking about him as a top-10 pick in this draft.”

The Celtics have to be prepared to continue along this draft-and-develop path, but, from indications here, they will be popular dance partners as teams grow more serious about making trades.




bob
MY NOTE:  So, this TUESDAY, we will know where every team will be picking and that's when Danny will start matching up their needs/likes/desires/assets/players with ours.  Interesting that, according to Bulpett (who is pretty good) GMs want to talk about Boston's flexibility and are envious.  Are they just saying that because the reporters are covering the Celtics?  Bulpett doesn't say if NON-Boston beat reporters are hearing that too.  Unless they are just completely shining Bulpett on, there probably is some envy here.  Good.  When someone wants what you have or wishes they had what you have that is the basis and starting point for negotiations and that's what Danny wants.  He wants trading partners and to get them you have to have something they want.  

3 days, and the speculation machines go into full-throated nitrous-fueled overdrive until its cacophonous conclusion on draft day, 6/25/15.  That's 37 days of some founded, mostly unfounded chaos.  Strap yourselves in, return your tray tables to their fully upright position.  In 3 days the doors will be closed, everybody who has a ticket will be in their assigned seats and we'll begin to push back from the gate...






.

I think that envy - and it's shared by fans and journalists for other teams - is behind the rumor that Danny would trade a first rounder just to clear the last year of Wallace's contract.

If they remain at 16 and 28 in the first round, they know they will not be able to draft anyone who could immediately fill one of their two major needs — a magnetic scorer and large interior defender.

These guys haven't heard of Robert Upshaw.

Which brings me to the next part of the article, how James Young would be a lotto pick in this draft. If we take a calculated risk on Upshaw at 16, that will make it much easier to give James Young minutes next year, even if his defense isn't good or even average yet.

James Young has easy #1 scoring potential, and that potential is turning more and more into ability. His 21 ppg average in the DLeague on 45% 3 point shooting on sky-high volume should not be ignored.

With another year of added muscle, and a more professional mentality, Young could very well win the starting SF position over Turner next year.

Bradley
Smart
Young
KO
Upshaw

could very well be the future starting lineup of this team.

Rambone,

I really thought that after the trade deadline this past year that Young would start to get minutes necessary for him to be able to show that he would be ready at either the small forward or shooting guard spot by next season.

Turns out Stevens was giving him the minutes, but Young flopped in using them to get to the starting line up and then even to stay in the rotation. Gerald Wallace had some things to say about Young not taking advantage of coaching and opportunity at just about the time Young played himself back to the Red Claws. No one on the Cs is saying it, but, in fact, he may have been the least improved player on the entire team throughout the 2014-15 season.

I am not sure that he is going to make it as his progress this year was way less than I anticipated and probably quite a bit less than Stevens and Ainge hoped for as well. It is really too bad that he kind of wasted his first year as a pro. Now, I will be surprised if he can find his way into the rotation next season and that is if he is still even on the roster. There may still be time to trade his 'potential' before he takes himself completely out of the league which is likely if he flops for a second straight year.

wide clyde wrote:Rambone,

I really thought that after the trade deadline this past year that Young would start to get minutes necessary for him to be able to show that he would be ready at either the small forward or shooting guard spot by next season.

Turns out Stevens was giving him the minutes, but Young flopped in using them to get to the starting line up and then even to stay in the rotation.  Gerald Wallace had some things to say about Young not taking advantage of coaching and opportunity at just about the time Young played himself back to the Red Claws.  No one on the Cs is saying it, but, in fact, he may have been the least improved player on the entire team throughout the 2014-15 season.

I am not sure that he is going to make it as his progress this year was way less than I anticipated and probably quite a bit less than Stevens and Ainge hoped for as well.  It is really too bad that he kind of wasted his first year as a pro.  Now, I will be surprised if he can find his way into the rotation next season and that is if he is still even on the roster.  There may still be time to trade his 'potential' before he takes himself completely out of the league which is likely if he flops for a second straight year.

clyde,

I concur.  If there was an award for "Least Improved" I think James Young and Phil Pressey would be arm-wrestling for the dubious honor.

Playing defense is like finding religion, you either embrace it or you don't.  Unfortunately, James Young thought he could be an agnostic on this team, and that isn't going to happen, not on this team and not on any other NBA team unless he only want to see time during blowouts.

James Young is a 6'6" SF.  That is small, really a tweener in a league with 6'9" SFs like Green, George and Durant.  The trend in point gaurds seem to be trending towards shorter but more shoot first pass second while the trend in wings seem to be bigger.  Can you name a SF that is shorter than 6'7" that's a younger player?  I don't think I can.  If some GM is drooling over him and has someone we want, I'm just fine with Danny using him as the cherry on top.


bob


.

rambone wrote:I think that envy - and it's shared by fans and journalists for other teams - is behind the rumor that Danny would trade a first rounder just to clear the last year of Wallace's contract.

If they remain at 16 and 28 in the first round, they know they will not be able to draft anyone who could immediately fill one of their two major needs — a magnetic scorer and large interior defender.

These guys haven't heard of Robert Upshaw.

Which brings me to the next part of the article, how James Young would be a lotto pick in this draft. If we take a calculated risk on Upshaw at 16, that will make it much easier to give James Young minutes next year, even if his defense isn't good or even average yet.

James Young has easy #1 scoring potential, and that potential is turning more and more into ability. His 21 ppg average in the DLeague on 45% 3 point shooting on sky-high volume should not be ignored.

With another year of added muscle, and a more professional mentality, Young could very well win the starting SF position over Turner next year.

Bradley
Smart
Young
KO
Upshaw

could very well be the future starting lineup of this team.

rambone,


His 21 ppg average in the DLeague on 45% 3 point shooting on sky-high volume should not be ignored.

Big fish, small pond.  We've seen players like Dionte Christmas who looked awesome in Orlando Summer League who can't stay on NBA rosters. Just imagine what James Young's college scoring average would have been if he played on, and against, a Division 2 team instead of a Division 1 team like Kentucky.

He's beating the snot out of players who can't play in the NBA. Sorry, unimpressed, especially when he does get called up to Boston and he can't even spell defense.


bob



.

Another vote of agreement from this corner.  As the season progressed, I evolved from being sympathetic about Young's lack of minutes to frustrated at his consistent inability to demonstrate growth at the NBA level even when his minutes increased.  Yes, he has a nice stoke, but 25.8% from three (25.7% before the All Star break and 25.8 after the break)?  Give me a break!  The only statistical category in which he showed improvement after the break was in steals, where he vaulted from 0.1 all the way to 0.4.

He seems to be turning into a one trick pony, and that trick is only 25.% efficient.  More than two-thirds of his field goal attempts are threes, and only very occasionally (actually make that "rarely") does he show any promise for consistently being able to take the ball to the hoop with any authority.

Nice kid.  But I'm afraid he may be hiding his Chris Johnson undershirt from the public.

Sam

Clyde, in Young's defense, he was the youngest player in the draft, like barely 19.

Stephen Curry played 3 years of college basketball, and still came into the league as a terrible defender.
Klay Thompson played 3 years of college.
Damian Lillard played 4 years of college
Jimmy Butler played 3
James Harden played 2
Russell Westbrook played 2
Wade played 2
Rudy Gay played 2
Gordon Hayward played 2
LaMarcus Aldridge 2
Chris Paul played 2

Looking at the top 20 leading scorers in the NBA from this season, here are the names of those who played 1 year or less of college ball:

LeBron
Anthony Davis
DeMarcus Cousins
Kyrie Irving
DeMar DeRozen
Monta Ellis
Pau Gasol

Among the next ten leading scorers (20-30):
John Wall
Marc Gasol
Dirk
Eric Bledsoe
Brandon Knight

Among the next 10 leading scorers (31-40)
Wiggins
Al Jefferson
Tyreke Evans
Kevin Love
Goran Dragic
Zach Randolph

That's 18 out of the top 40 scorers who went to college for one year or less, and four of them are Euros where they play pro ball at age 16, and only 7 were one-and-dones like James Young. 7 were straight from high school as James Young probably would have been if he were allowed.

And only a handful of those 18 with one year or less of college made an impact as rookies.

James Young is an extremely gifted shooter, with a great NBA body, but he's a bit of a tweener, and isn't gifted with great lateral quickness for defense.
Too slow to defend 2s, and too weak to defend 3s as a 19 year old.

On top of that he got drafted by a playoff team. There was no room for an unprepared 19 year old rookie during the playoff run when every single game mattered.

On top of that Danny signed Evan Turner in September, an experienced vet.

On top of that, James Young missed all of summer league because he was in a car accident, which helped make him available at 17 because he missed some pre-draft workouts while injured.

Similarly, Avery Bradley was injured during the pre-draft process which allowed Danny to draft him at 19 I believe. Bradley missed all of summer league and a summer of practice, and had a very unproductive rookie year. Then his second year he took Ray Allen's job in the starting lineup, and outperformed Ray.

Bradley basically shot as well as Ray Allen, while playing better defense, just one year after a majority of fans were insisting he could not shoot, was a complete bust, and was in no way an NBA player. We should have drafted Joe Blow and Flip Bergers instead.

Young not only missed summer league, but he missed training camp as well. All while being a year younger than Avery during his nightmare rookie season.

In high school, super star scorers like James Young are coddled, and AAU doesn't emphasize defense and lets big-time scorers like Young slip into lazy habits instead of developing their defensive skills and mentalities.

And Young was good enough at Kentucky that he never got benched because of bad habits.

If Young had been drafted by Philly or a dozen other teams, he would have had plenty of opportunities to get big minutes, and his defense would not keep him on the bench.

Young has an outstanding mentality for a scorer, but simply hasn't developed his defensive mentality yet. James Harden was the same way, and didn't even start working on his defensive mentality until this season.

Young has a lot of Harden in him. Great confidence, great natural scoring ability, but some of the same diva tendencies which comes with a lot of great scorers, just like with great wide receivers in football.

I fully expect Young to crush it in the summer league, just like he crushed the DLeague.
And if Danny is able to upgrade one of the worst defensives frontcourts in the NBA, Young will have a real shot at a big role and even the starting position over Turner. But he's going to need to gain weight, show more maturity, and learn not to take things for granted. A lot of big time scorers had to learn the same lessons. And most big time scorers got to do their growing up in college for 2-4 years. They make up a majority of the top 40 scorers.

As far as how much Young improved over the year, I would say he improved quite a bit. His stepback jumper and footwork in general were much improved, and he went from shooting 35% from the college 3 point line on 6 attempts per game, to shooting 44% on 9 3pt attempts per game from the deeper NBA 3 point line in the DLeague. He not only increased his volume 50%, but he greatly improved his % while doing so, which is extremely impressive and bodes extremely well for his career.

To put that in perspective, Stephen Curry shot the exact same 43% from 3 on one less attempt per game in his MVP season this year.

Young as a 19 year old has already shown that he can shoot like that, at an age when Curry was still an underclassman in college.

Yes, Young hasn't yet proven he can shoot like that in the NBA, but he has already shown the ability to shoot like that in games, and at high volume. Over and over and over again. And we know he's a natural big game performer from his eye opening NCAA tourney performance as an 18 year old.

Rookie shooting performance in the NBA should be taken with a grain of salt, especially so for extremely young rookies. There's simply too much to adjust to, to much thinking getting in the way of playing, visiting each city for the first time in your life, living on the road, dealing with money and money problems, all while being a kid in a man's world.

Just the transition from the college 3 point line to the NBA 3 point line is a major one, and Young has already shown he's a pure shooter of the first order from that distance. KGarnett never made that jump in his entire career. He was a knockdown shooter from college 3 point line distance, but was never able to stretch his range that extra 2.5 feet. Bass at 29 is just starting to dabble with the corner 3. Young has already mastered that distance as a teenager. Very few have.

Aside from that most important 3 point shooting, Young has also developed his ball handling a good deal, and has shown real flashes of being a great dribble penetrator, something Avery Bradley still struggles mightily with.

Young is coming back as a much more savvy veteran, and having learned so many of the very basics, you could argue he's improved more than anybody on the team. Certainly learned way more. And that shot...

Young may not ever be an even average defender, but he can be a top 15 scorer and make it look as effortless as his rookie year defense.

Joe Johnson was never a good defender, but he slipped right through Rick Pitino's hands. And while young Joe Johnson isn't going to walk through that door, James Young is already here, with a whole lot to prove.

Bob, you're right and that's a great way of putting it. Young is either going to join the religion of defense or he might be on his way out of Boston.

However, there are other teams that will put much less value on defense, and Young will most assuredly thrive somewhere in the NBA.

Stephen Curry's coach last year, Mark Jackson, preferred for Curry to not focus on defense. And that was Curry's breakout year as a borderline MVP candidate. Scal was an assistant coach for Golden State last year, and he ended up leaving the team in part because he couldn't believe that Jackson wasn't pushing Curry to be a better, more focused defender. However, that same coaching approach helped Curry really master the offensive side of the game, and laid the foundation for his MVP season this year. His defense has also greatly improved this year, but he's 27 years old and has finally been asked to focus on his defense.

One of the top 3 picks in this draft is D'Angelo Russell, a kid with the same super sweet shooting stroke as James Young, but better ball handling and passing.

But Russell too lacks defensive gifts, and also lacks a defensive mentality. And yet he'll be drafted top 3 or top 5 by some excited NBA team who puts a higher priority on scoring than defense.

So, James Young indeed needs to get the defense religion if he wants to stick with Boston, but he can and will still succeed in the NBA as a scorer, and as a clutch scorer, doing exactly what Danny says this team now needs. And maybe that's okay, to lose a good player that doesn't fit the system.

But finding and acquiring an offensive star who also has a defensive mentality is almost as hard as finding a foundational big man.

The one thing that translates clearly from DLeague play to the NBA is 3 point shooting. It's the same ball, the same distance, the same rim at the same height. It just might not translate for the first year or even two of an NBA players career.

And while many have thrived in the DLeague but been unable to do the same in the NBA, very few if any have shown James Young's accuracy on such high volume from that distance. The one guy who has, just won the NBA MVP award in doing so.

You guys are definitely right that Young is a tweener.

On draft day Danny called him a classic small forward, and Young called himself a classic shooting guard, basically. Evan Turner is the same kind of tweener, though he has 5-10 lbs on Young, in addition to years of experience and seeing his NBA life flash before his eyes when he turned into a near-minimum salary type player last year.

I suspect Turner also has better natural lateral quickness, which a lot of his game has always been based on.

The one thing Young has on Turner is wingspan. Turner has a 6'8" wingspan and 8'7.5" standing reach, while Young has a 7 foot wingspan and 8'8" standing reach.

Jeff Green, for all his great height for the position, only has an 8'7" standing reach.
Blake Griffin, power forward, only has an 8'9" standing reach.

Rambone, I'm not quite sure what you mean by "high volume," and 44% from the arc in the DL is very nice; but I believe certain shooting conditions are much tougher in the bigs.  The much more accomplished defense at the NBA level requires a much quicker release, the ability to shoot with a hand in your face, and a certain maneuverability to get the shot off.  And the NBA also requires more that, to be a successful three-point shooter have another move to keep from being over-guarded solely for the three.  Lowry, for instance, goes to the hoop with authority.  For that matter, so did Ray Allen. (Wasn't it Ray who waved off the pick and cruised right around Vujacic in the ultimate championship game?)

The problem is that, whatever the reason, Young's 44% three-point shooting at the DL level has been cut nearly in half (25.8%) at the NBA level.  That suggests to me that there's loads of work ahead just to get his specialty to the NBA level.  Another go-go move and much improved defense?  I'm not claiming it's an impossible chore; and, maybe with the right nurturing situation, he could become a force over time.  I just don't know what that situation might be.  But, with the Celtics' need to capitalize on last season's late momentum right out of the gate this coming season, I can't see how that situation would be in Boston.

Sam

Sam, I paid close attention to Young when he was in the DLeague. He's got a very quick, high release, and he was steadily hitting 3s right in guys' faces. Much better than he shot 3s when contested in college.

And he's quite fearless attacking closeouts off the dribble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlARGQ1yrW0

Outside shooting is the most delicate of NBA skills. If it wasn't, everybody would shoot like Stephen Curry. Tons of All Star scoring legends didn't shoot well from 3 as rookies, especially one-and-dones.

Curry would have been exposed as an imperfect shooter under unfamiliar circumstances, and his defense would have been D2 college level.

I know you respect Brad Stevens, and Stevens had James Young ranked as his 11th pick in the draft last year. You just gotta wait until he's 20.

By high volume I meant his nine 3ptfga's per game over 19 games, making over four 3 pointers every single game.

Nobody shoots 9 threes a game.

Shooting 45% from 3 in the DLeague is one thing when a guy shoots two of them a game, and wide open looks at that.

Here's a one game sample of his game.



Tons of great shooters didn't shoot the lights out as rookies. Just rookie adjustment. Like Avery Bradley, who is nowhere near the all around scorer Young is.

This is what Young will look like most nights, as soon as this year, except he'll get his number called a lot more, and be more free to go one on one against his man. Not to mention more screens called for him.


He's been making quiet but sneaky improvements to his game, and he won't be Paul Pierce but he'll be about Joe Johnson good.

Yeah, he might not have the instincts and reaction time to ever really get it together on defense. Trouble focusing, easily faked by change of direction. Some of that just might be a natural lack of the gift of good instincts.

Rambone, for Jame's sake, I hope you're right about him.  But something caused the huge disparity between his three point shooting percentage in the DL vs. the NBA.  How much of the differential was a function of many possible variables is not completely clear.  Perhaps Brad's magic will work on James.  But I don't believe it's a particularly good sign that, just when the team was cooking toward the end of the season, James got sent down for what appeared to be lack of relevance.

Sam

Rambone,

For Young and the Celtics we all hope that Young can be much improved next season. He has a very long way to go, but we on this forum are all Cs fans so we want him to make a stronger contribution than he did last year.

You make good points, but the Cs are not the 76ers in that Boston has made much more progress in their re-build to this point than Philly. This means that Young's opportunities easily could be fewer and further between this year. Boston is much more about winning games now rather than working to lose games like the 76ers have been doing now for three years.

I am still very concerned that old sage, Gerald Wallace had to rip Young to the press during the season as it could be a sign that this guy (no matter what his age or experience) just doesn't "get it". I am sure that Wallace lent his thoughts to Young many times before mentioning his concerns to the press. It was also noteworthy that neither Stevens or Ainge had anything to say about Young later in the season after pumping him up to the press for about 2/3rds of the season.

I hope he makes it, but right now it looks like a very long road for this young guy.

with Young's early injuries this past season, I put him in the Bradley school of rookies.

lets see if he steps up like Bradley did in his second year OR if he continues to be an end of the bench type.

Coaching staff should know by the end of summer I think and a trade could be worked out if needed then.

I thought Bradley was a completely wasted pick after his rookie year too.