Big man draft expectations

Rookies are young, raw and inexperienced so don't expect a big time game changer in this years draft. Below link list the players for the last 15 years,  in their rookie year,  whose height is 6'10" or taller, played at least 1100 minutes, averaged 7 points and 7 rebounds per game.  Of all the first year big men that played in the nba over those 15 years only 17 qualified for the list.  4 were number 1 picks, 1# 2 pick, 2# 3 picks, 1 # 4 pick, 2 # 5 picks, 1 # 6 pick, 1 # 7 pick,2 # 9 picks, 1 # 10 pick, 1 # 12 pick, 1 #13 pick.

http://bkref.com/tiny/CcFAk

swish

The NBA draft shrank to 2 round in 1989. When you consider that only 5 of those 17 were taken in the 1st 2 rounds, that should tell you just how unusual it is for a "modern" big man to be able to just step in and play well from the start.


bob


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At this point in their progression, the Celtics don't need a fully developed big time game changer. They need a promising rim protector who will immediately provide better defensive balance by contesting the efforts of other teams (particularly good teams) to run a virtual layup line against the Celtics.  That kind of defensive asset (even at an early stage) could have spelled a pronounced difference in the W/L record last season.  (I guess that would qualify as a little time game changer.)

Then he can hopefully take a couple of years to develop into the kind of mainstay who could anchor the team defensively for a long time.  And, after all, Noah didn't play 30 mpg or score or rebound in double figures until his third season.

Sam

In my opinion getting a rim protector now, unless he's all-league,  plays second fiddle to landing 2 or more all-league scorers or 1 all league scorer plus an all-league rebounder.  Now if one of the scorers happens to be a top notch rebounder, so much the better. To be a serious contender for a ring its imperative that a club have at least 2 all-league scorers on its roster, and in my opinion, all the teams assets ( draft picks,money, etc.) should be used to meet this goal.

  Question: Rim protector vs rebounder. What distinguishes a rim protector from a rebounder ?

swish

swish wrote:In my opinion getting a rim protector now, unless he's all-league,  plays second fiddle to landing 2 or more all-league scorers.  Now if one of the scorers happens to be a top notch rebounder, so much the better. To be a serious contender for a ring its imperative that a club have at least 2 all-league scorers on its roster, and in my opinion, all the teams assets ( draft picks,money, etc.) should be used to meet this goal.

  Question: Rim protector vs rebounder. What distinguishes a rim protector from a rebounder ?

swish

well then all the chatter about Love and Aldridge should make you very happy.

both are top scorers and solid (or better) rebounders.

kdp59

Love yes. Aldridge as a final piece to the puzzle this year or next - yes. For the future beyond next year.- no. Age becomes a factor.

swish

I agree that the Cs need a young rim protector who will be much more ready in 2016-17 than he will be next season as I expect the Celtics to improve again next year, but probably not to the upper echelons of the league.

This young rim protector will not only block some shots but also will force opponents to alter their shots when near him. Zeller, for example, is not a terrible one on one defender. He, however, lacks the ability to help cover for his teammates which makes him a very poor 'rim protector'.

Whomever the Cs add next year as their young rim protector doesn't have to have very much offensive game for next year and can contribute offensively with put backs and dunks (maybe average 8-10 ppg), but he does need to show progress on offense towards being much more complete by 2016-17 when I would expect the Cs to rise into the top tier of teams in the league.

Excellent question of what makes a difference between a rim protector and a good rebounder. Going back to days gone by, Paul Silas was an excellent rebounder but could never have been considered a 'rim protector'. He did his superior rebounding work by utilizing his brain and his desire to get rebounds as he never really had any exceptional physical jumping ability.

This guy does need to rebound at the defensive end immediately upon putting on a Cs uniform however. I would say if he gets 24 minutes of playing time per game he will need to have somewhere around 9 rebounds per game with a good number of those rebounds on the defensive end.

Last year, I was preaching the need to get a center who would at least fill the role in making the Celtics a more balanced team, especially on the offensive end.  To an extent, that happened with Zeller.

This past season, when they went 20-31 before the All-Star break and exploded to 20-11 afte the all-Star break, they improved by 1.5 ppg on offense by improved by double that amount (2.9 ppg) on defense.  They had 100 ppg offense pretty much through the season, but it was at the defensive end that they improved enough to get them over the hump in so many close games down the stretch.

They need to retain that "defense first" mentality going forward, taking it up a notch in the lane.  It would be nice to get one or two strong scorers too.  But strong scorers are a heck of a lot easier to find and integrate into the system (even at mid-season) than strong defenders.  Defenders (especially big defenders) should almost always take precedence, and this is no exception.

Sam

so let me see if I get this right.

to make us all happy, all Ainge need to do is get a guy  who can score 20 a night, pull down 10 or more rebounds AND play high end defense.

I'm not on the "scoring 20 a night" list.  Maybe not even 10.  Putbacks and close-in shots are fine with me as long as the potential for strong defense and rebounding is there.

Sam

I specifically said all-league credentials. Like 1 0f the top 15 in the league. Out of the 450 players in the league the 15 all-leaguers are the cream of the crop. And of course salary cap restrictions make it an even more difficult task to land I of them. But that's exactly what Danny did back in 07-08 when he added all-leaguers Allen and Garnett to a roster that already had All- leaguer Pierce. You want to be a serious contender - It all starts with all-league scorers and or rebounders.

swish

Given the wealth of assets Danny has on three separate fronts (draft, cap space, trade chips), he'll hopefully be able to fill several needs this summer.  But, if push came to shove and priorities had to be set, I believe that getting a potentially stud rim protector/rebounder to develop over the next couple of seasons is a higher priority than getting even one top 10 scorer.

Sam

I agree with Sam's thoughts on getting a defensive center is more important than finding a big scorer on the wing.

This need has been pretty glaring since even before the end of the Garnett and Pierce era, in my opinion. Remember the entire year that Garnett had to spend most of his minutes at the center position? He was out of position and the team was absolutely weaker at both the center and the power forward position as a result.

Last year without any help in the middle the entire roster was hindered defensively even though they did play hustling, tough defense for the second half of the year. Someone to make drivers have to adjust their shots allow the rest of the defenders to play more aggressively on the perimeter.

This guy also needs to be able to rebound a good percentage of the available defensive rebounds even if he is not yet an impact scorer next season.

I was just reading some articles on Robert Upshaw, including one from the Seatle Times, where Upshaw last played college basketball.

Some commenters below the articles made some pretty good points. Upshaw at some point in the past admitted to an alcohol problem, in addition to whatever drugs he was abusing.

All the Washington/Seatle Times commenters agreed that Upshaw wasn't kicked off the team just for weed. They would have just suspended him a game or two or three rather than kick him off the team.

A couple of the commenters made the good point that Upshaw hasn't actually hit rock bottom yet. Sure, he was kicked off his second team, and that was a low, but the draft and millions of dollars was always right around the corner. Making $800,000 a year instead of 3 million dollars isn't the kind of devastating rock bottom low that inspires a drug addict to really change their life around.

And Upshaw already has a lot of experience in saying all the right things. He was saying all the right things at Washington while using drugs and testing positive for whatever it was, probably cocaine. His head was so big that he thought he could fail multiple drug tests and still stay on the team because he was one of the best players in the country.

Even if Upshaw's saying all the right things right now is sincere, NBA money, lifestyle, and success/fame can make it extremely hard for an addict to stay on the straight and narrow and not relapse.

So I think we're dealing with a Vin Baker like case, where Upshaw is still probably years away from hitting rock bottom, but may have years of success before then. Or not. Gin Baker was an all star before his alcoholism ruined his career.

Upshaw thought Washington needed him too much to just dismiss him from the team and ruin their season. He thought wrong. But his best chance for multi-year success in the NBA will come if he knows a team won't tolerate an active hard drug addiction.
If the Celtics draft him at 16, that's a big investment and sends the wrong message to a kid prone to a soaring ego and boundary-pushing.

He may very well be better than Joakim Noah, but we can't have our season and success revolve around the drama of whether Upshaw can keep it together week to week.

But given our massive stockpile of draft picks, both this year and for the foreseeable future, I think taking a chance on him at 28 makes a lot of sense. It's still a guaranteed two years of salary, but it's about half the guaranteed money of the 16th pick, and we simply have the assets to easily afford being able to dismiss Upshaw from the team should the situation not work out, for any reason.

Upshaw knowing that the Celtics don't need him and will dismiss him will be good for Upshaw, and is more likely to keep him on the straight and narrow.

And if Upshaw is gone by 28, well, maybe it wasn't meant to be.

so no one liked my Boogie Cousins picture?

Looks like a guy who's perpetually wronged.

Sam

Now Upshaw is approaching the hardest part of his journey. He can't just get clean; he has to stay that way. If he can do it, there could be a hundred million dollars in his future.

At his best, Upshaw projects as a DeAndre Jordan-type, right down to the 40 percent free throw shooting. He could be a dominant shot-blocker and defender on one end and a screen setter and rim roller on the other. He says he's been working on his perimeter skills as well and is trying to model his game after LaMarcus Aldridge. He also knows it will only happen if he can stay disciplined.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/5/21/8627453/nba-draft-2015-robert-upshaw-washington-sleeper

At 28 I like Upshaw.