Who can come from under the radar to protect the rim?

S NATION

By Wes Howard

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

With so much focus on Deandre Jordan, Marc Gasol, and the centers at the top of the draft, there are some free agent rim-protectors who have escaped much of the public eye.

I would love to land Marc Gasol in free agency this year. Oh sweet goodness, that would be wonderful, he could run some offense out of the post, with quick and accurate passing to shooters on the perimeter. More importantly, he would protect the rim.

I would also love to land Deandre Jordan in free agency this year. I can picture the pick and rolls with Isaiah Thomas, and it puts butterflies in my stomach. More importantly, he would protect the rim.

Unfortunately, it is not very likely that we land either of these players in free agency, or any other big-name free agent big men. However, there are a lot of centers who will be free to move to a different organization during this summer, and are capable of providing the defensive presence in the paint that the Celtics have been missing since the departure of Kevin Garnett.

Alexis Ajinca


Alexis Ajinca is a 27-year-old Frenchman who has spent 6 seasons in the NBA (he took a brief hiatus from 2011-2013, to attempt to play overseas). He has spent the past two seasons playing center for the Pelicans, logging occasional starts and demonstrating notable improvement on both ends of the floor. He received a salary of $981,084 in 2014-'15, so will likely neither expect nor command a huge contract.

The Pros:

The first positive with Ajinca is his size. The Frenchman stands 7'1" tall, with a massive 7'9" wingspan, according to DraftExpress. He has bulked up considerably since entering the league, and now weighs almost 250 lbs. Ajinca uses his size effectively on both sides of the court, scoring efficiently out to 16 feet, and functioning as a steady rim protector.

In 14.1 minutes per game this past season, Ajinca averaged 6.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, .7 assists, and .8 blocks on 55% shooting from the floor. While those raw numbers are hardly eye-popping, his per-36 minute numbers of 16.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.9 blocks paint him in a significantly more favorable light, as does his PER of 19.9. While it seems unlikely that he would retain such efficiency and effectiveness with more minutes, he is definitely a rim protector that could give the Celtics the defensive they need. 82games.com awarded Ajinca a block rating of 8.2, which certainly compares favorably to Tyler Zeller's score of 3.5.

Furthermore, Ajinca could be a minimal financial risk. He was labelled a bust after playing poorly in his first stint in the league, and was picked up by the Pelicans on a very small contract. He might be had this off-season without too much of a financial commitment from the Celtics. The importance of the projected size of his contract cannot be overstated, given the Celtics' well-known desire to land a big-name free agent this off-season.

The Cons:

Ajinca only played 14.1 minutes per game for the Pelicans last season, and logged an average of 3 minutes per game in the Pels' playoff series against the Warriors. While this is anecdotal evidence, it does reveal an important fact about the big man; he is slow-footed, and doesn't match up well against the increasingly prevalent focus on small ball and outside shooting.

Ajinca's success came in very limited minutes, so a direct per-36 extrapolation is unreasonable. Analytically, Ajinca could be very successful with more minutes, but he would be far less successful in longer stretches against quicker opposition. He has not yet proven that he has the potential to be a good starting center, or a starting center at all. Picking up Ajinca on even a medium-sized contract would certainly be a gamble.

By The Numbers (This season):

Block Percentage: 4.0%

Total Rebound Percentage: 18.7%

Opponent FG Percentage at the Rim: 52.3%

Blocks per 36 minutes: 1.8

PER: 19.9

Opponent PER (per 48 minutes): 16.7

Ed Davis

Ed Davis is a 6'10" center/power forward, who is currently under contract with the Lakers (player option). He is a 5-year NBA veteran out of UNC, and turns 26 in just a couple of days. He has played consistently for the Lakers, moving into and out of the starting lineup, and playing 23.3 minutes per game. Davis has a player option for this coming year, so while he is not technically a free agent, he may be available to sign during the off-season.

This past season, Davis averaged 8.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game on 60.1% shooting. He played 23.3 minutes per game for a Lakers team that was in a down year. He was the only player on the roster that could both effectively protect the rim and shoot efficiently (20.0 PER). He has a player option for this coming year, so while he is not technically a free agent, he may be available to sign during this off-season.

The Pros:

This past season, Davis averaged 8.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game on 60.1% shooting for a Lakers team that was in a down year. He was the only player on the roster that could both effectively protect the rim and shoot efficiently, and was a bright spot for a team lacking in talent.

First of all, Davis projects as a quality rim-protector. His blocks per minute extrapolate out to 1.9 per 36 minutes, which is certainly significant. This season, he had a block rating of 8.1, according to 82games.com, and a block percentage of 4.3.

Additionally, Davis is a solid rebounder. He has a rebounding percentage of 18%, pulling down 11.7 per 36 minutes. Perhaps even more exciting, Davis notched 2.9 offensive rebounds per game. Celtics fans will surely be able to appreciate the value of offensive boards after getting gashed by Tristan Thomson in the playoffs this year (seriously, that guy killed us on the glass).

His efficient shooting is also valuable. Davis shot 60% from the floor, with 96.1% of his shots coming from within 10 feet. He understands his role, sticking around the basket and finishing consistently.

The Cons:

Davis does not have enough size to play center against many of the bigger 5s in the league. He stands 6'9.75" (in shoes), with a 7' wingspan. He is athletic enough to make up for many of the issues created by his height, but he likely does not have the mass and strength (227 lbs.) to bang with the big boys down low. This shows up in the PERs posted by his opponents. He is holding power forwards to a PER of 20.0 per 48 minutes, but allows centers to post a PER of 21.8, according to 82games.com.

Additionally, he does not have much of an outside shot, so may not fit in well with Stevens's pace and space offense. This past season, he only shot 35.3% from outside of 10 feet. His need to stay around the basket on offense could gum up slashing lanes for Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, or driving lanes for Isaiah Thomas.

By The Numbers (This Season):

Block Percentage: 4.3%

Total Rebound Percentage: 18.0%

Opponent FG Percentage at the Rim: 53.9%

Blocks per 36 minutes: 1.9

PER: 20.0

Opponent PER (at center, per 48 minutes): 19.8

Kosta Koufos


Koufos is perhaps the most well-known player on this list. He has been a successful backup to Marc Gasol in Memphis for the past two years, and was a starting center in Denver before that. It has been reported by various sites that he could be targeted by the Celtics this off-season, and he would certainly fill some needs for the team.

He is a 7-year NBA veteran, and is still just 26 years old. His salary last year for the Grizzlies was $3M, and he will be looking for a raise as a free-agent this off-season.

The Pros:

The first positive aspect of Koufos' game is his defense. Koufos held opposing centers to a PER of 15.3 this past season, and blocked 1.7 shots per 36 minutes. That second figure is somewhat misleading, because Koufos is more of a straight-up defender, altering more shots than he blocked. This year, Koufos held opposing players to a shooting percentage of 46.9% at the rim. This figure legitimizes Koufos's case as a legitimate starting-caliber rim-protector.

His rebounding is also very strong. Koufos pulled down 5.3 rebounds per game this season, at a rate of 11.4 per 36 minutes. This figure has remained consistent; over the past 4 years, and regardless of playing time, Koufos has averaged over 11 rebounds per 36 minutes (5 years ago, he averaged 10.. The big Greek will certainly help Boston's poor rebounding (Boston ranked 20th in rebounding differential this past season).

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Koufos has a lot of experience as a starter. Over the past four years, he has started in 130 NBA games, and has been successful as a defensive center. Signing Koufos doesn't project to be very much of a gamble (unless the contract is enormous), which is a huge positive. That's not something that can be said about the other two prospects discussed here, and its value cannot be overstated.

The Cons:

Koufos did not have a very efficient offensive season last year. He finished with a PER of 14.2, which is below league average. He shot 50.8% from the floor on the year, which is certainly lower than optimal for a center. His performance from the line was not great, either. He shot 64.7% from the stripe, which is better than Deandre Jordan, but certainly not good. What's more, he only shot 33.3% from the floor outside of 10 feet, indicating that he has little to no value as a floor spacer in Boston's pace and space offense.

Despite his apparent offensive limitations, Koufos will certainly be a highly sought-after free agent during this off-season. His experience and success as a rim-protector make him desirable, which means other teams will be bidding for his services as well. The Celtics will have to spend much more money to sign him than they would have to spend on either of the other two players discussed here. This means that while Koufos isn't much of a gamble from an on-the-court perspective, he represents a larger gamble from a financial perspective. Of course, this will be mitigated by the massive projected salary cap looming in the near future.

By The Numbers (This Season):

Block Percentage: 3.9%

Total Rebound Percentage: 18.1%

Opponent FG Percentage at the Rim: 46.9%

Blocks per 36 minutes: 1.7

PER: 14.2

Opponent PER (at center, per 48 minutes): 15.3

Final Thoughts

All three of these players could provide the rim protection that Celtics fans have been absolutely clamoring for for the past couple of seasons. As a team, Boston has not done an adequate job of defending the paint. That could change this upcoming free agency, with the signing of a player that may not be on everyone's radar.

Ajinca could prove to have a game as giant as he is, if given extended minutes.

Davis could prove that he has the athleticism to make up for his size, and be a small-ball rim protector for the Celtics.

Koufos (who almost didn't make this list, due to his presence on several teams' free-agent wish lists) could prove that he truly does deserve the money and the permanent starting job that he's been craving all along.

There is one more thing to consider; one thing that we often forget, in our rush to identify a 'missing piece' on a team, is the importance of raw talent. While Zeller is no rim-protector, he spent the past season proving that he is definitely talented. When we consider the free-agents we could acquire this off-season, we must continue to ask ourselves if adding that 'missing piece' is worth sacrificing the presence, or playing time, of the pieces we already have.

So, what do you think; could one of these lesser-known players grow into our defensive-anchoring center of the future?

All stats from Nba.com, basketball-reference.com, espn.com, and 82games.com

112288

Of these three my choices are, in order:  Koufos, Ajinca and Davis WAY in the rear.  We do NOT need another undersized center.

Koufos has played some big minutes, has showed he can play in the NBA.  I would be quite happy to have Koufos.

Ajinca is Festus Ezeli.  He has defensive talents that can be attributed to his size and wingspan, but not much else.  Nevertheless, I'd take Ajinca if Danny comes up dry everywhere else and, at worst, consider him to be another Danny 'rental' until he can roll the deal forward again and get someone he really wants.  Next year we'll still only be entering year 3 of a minimum 3-5 year rebuild, so if it takes another year to find that special piece, we're not far behind schedule if we're getting other pieces in place now.  You can't teach 7'9" wingspan.  If he's added bulk, that will slow him down but help him in the blocks.  He only averaged 14mpg last year, but I'm thinking "so what?".  Unless Danny can snag a legit NBA center, either Cousins or move up for WCS or someone that we can have confidence is, or will become, a legit starting NBA center, then we're looking at center by committee and if so then a 14mpg shot blocker with a 25mpg Tyler Zeller gets us almost all the way there and reduces the minutes at center by Jelly Sullynk down to an acceptable handful or two.    

And who is to say that Ajinca couldn't get a few more minutes, 17-20mpg?, under Brad, or maybe even more?  Perhaps I'm getting a little carried away here but I am positively gushing after seeing the absolutely masterful way Brad managed and coached his ever-changing roster last year.  I have no doubt whatsoever that whatever Ajinca was giving his previous coaches, Brad could get more out of him and figure out ways to minimize/cover his drawbacks.  Brad was the best player on our team last year and he got better as the year went on, not just with ATOs but because he finally, after the trade deadline, knew who/what he was working with and we saw how well they did in the last few months of the season.  We all rolled our eyes when we saw the collection of even younger college assistant coaches he brought on board and thought it was "amateur hour" (exceptions were Ron Adams and Larranagga), but now you've got Detroit and OKC looking to bring in college coaches after seeing what Brad did for us.  Just like with the 3 Amigos, and the Heat and the Cavs went for a "Big 3" approach, the teams around the league are emulating our success.  I realize this is getting a little 'off point' here, but I think it is still relevant.  Just as Rondo was the hub of the wheel that made the spokes spin faster and made everybody else on his team better (didn't happen in Dallas, but it did here) Brad is the hub of this wheel now.  Looking at a player's past stats is not necessarily indicative of what he will do here.  Look at Jae Crowder.  An underused, underappreciated player in Dallas but an almost indispensable glue guy here under Brad.  Jonas Jerebko.  Once a starter in Detroit, traded by SVG to acquire the 34 year old Tayshaun Prince (talk about underappreciated!  Getting traded for a 34 year old who wants to be bought out!) showed great value here under Brad.  Even Gigi, a guy who couldn't get off the bench in Detroit became a crowd favorite because Brad figured out exactly when and how to use him best, and that was when when he needed scoring punch from the 3 (and at least a little more defense than he could get from James Young).

Doc had veterans who he let "play their game". When Doc was short of talent, in the years before 2008, he struggled. Ok, that's understandable, no knock on Doc, it's hard to win in the NBA without talent but Brad is a Swiss army knife coach. He has a system, more than Doc does it seems to me, but when the system isn't working because he doesn't have the talent he adapts and does it very quickly. That is a precious talent.

We all want to see what Brad can do with some top shelf NBA talent, but I'm ok with another year of him developing middle-tier talent and showcasing them for Danny too. Ajinca might fit that bill and, as we all know, Danny is not afraid to make a deal knowing he'll still need to roll it forward once or twice more before before he gets the guy he really wants.


bob



.