Draft leaves Celtics future foggier than ever

CSNE

RICH LEVINE

The Celtics selected point guard Terry Rozier with the 16th pick in last night’s draft, but based on the reaction in Boston you’d have thought they drafted Ted Wells. Fans were pissed. They were confused. And that led to more anger and more confusion—and really, all those emotions boil down to this:

If the Celtics are going to climb back into contention, there are holes that need to be filled, and right now there are plenty of options. However, last night Danny Ainge chose to re-fill the same hole he filled last summer, and then reinforced at last year’s trade deadline. That leaves the Celtics with a roster where the best player and two most recent top picks are point guards, and unless the future holds a Finals match-up against the Tyrion Lannister All Stars, that roster’s not built to win. It’s not even close.

After last year’s marked improvement, it felt like this team was trending in the right direction, and this draft was a chance to build on that. Instead, last night felt like a step back, or at best a lateral slide. Even if you don’t hate the addition of Rozier, it’s hard to love it. But as is the case with any draft, you can’t say that you didn’t like what the team did unless you have a valid rebuttal for what they should have done. So in this case, let’s ask the question: What should the Celtics have done?

Don’t say “miss the playoffs” because they didn’t miss the playoffs. They were where they were and we don’t have a time machine.

Don’t say “trade into the top 10” because they tried to do that. They tried for the last two weeks, but the asking price was too high. The same people killing Ainge for not moving up are the same ones who’d be killing him three years from now for giving up too much.

Don’t say “they should have drafted this guy, or that guy” unless you watched this guy or that guy play more than 10 times in college, and at least once in person. That’s fair, right? When you consider that Ainge and his crew have been watching these players for years, and worked them out and interviewed them multiple times, it’s crazy to pretend that you know better. Sure, anyone can sit here today and claim that Terry Rozier will have an underwhelming NBA career. After all, he was the No. 16 pick. History suggests that he WILL have an underwhelming career. When you look at the last 10 No. 16 picks—Jusuf Nurkic, Lucas Nogueira, Royce White, Nikola Vucevic, Luke Babbitt, James Johnson, Marreese Speights, Nick Young, Rodney Carney and Joey Graham—you’ll find zero All Stars and only one guy (Vucevic) with even the potential to become an All Star. Of the remaining nine, Nurkic could be pretty good, Speights was relevant on the regular season Warriors and Swaggy P is Swaggy P, but in general No. 16 hasn’t been special. There’s a good chance that Rozier won’t go on to stardom. Or maybe he will? I don’t know. I have no idea what happens next with him. But here are two things we do know:

1) Of all the players still on the board last night, Rozier is the one that Boston felt has the best chance to be a star. He was their best player available. He’s the guy they’d choose to build a team around. While some past draft night hiccups—JaJuan Johnson comes to mind—could be chalked up to circumstance, this Rozier pick will be easy to evaluate moving forward. Anyone drafted after him who has a better career THAN him is a knock on Boston’s system and process.

2) The Celtics are much farther from contending than we’d like to believe. The core of this team isn’t even a core. It’s a collection of talent with no end in sight. When Rozier was drafted last night and people started screaming, the majority screamed about those other needs: a rim protector, a wing scorer and/or anyone with size. The fact that the Celtics so brazenly shrugged that off simply shows that Ainge doesn’t think this team is there. He wasn’t drafting the best available big man just because they need a big man, he was drafting the best available player because he still needs players. It doesn’t matter who they are or what they do as long as they do it well.

Things can change quickly of course. There are free agents to sign, and trades to be made, and you have to assume that there will be trades. It’s seems incredibly unlikely that the Celtics will start next season with all three points guards plus Avery Bradley on this roster. You know that someone has to go and it won’t be long before the rumors kick back into the headlines.

That situation in Philly looks particularly perfect. They have all young big men and no guards. Boston has all young guards and no big men. It’s a match made in heaven and it doesn’t matter that Philly is in the same division. Ainge doesn’t care about that. NBA divisions grow more meaningless by the day. And then there’s Sacramento. At this point either DeMarcus Cousins or George Karl has to go. That bridge has most definitely been burned. And considering what Ainge was reportedly willing to give up for the chance to draft Justise Winslow—some say it was as many as four picks—you can only imagine what he’d give up for Cousins. At least enough to get the Kings attention. But again, those are just rumors for now—only guesses—and that’s what so frustrating about last night.

Celtics fans are tired of guessing. They want answers. They want a clear path. The draft is supposed to help with that but last night just fogged things up.

And now all we can do is what we’ve already been doing for two years:

Wait.

And hope.

And trust that the next franchise-altering move is on the horizon.

Speaking of which, how about a trade for Ty Lawson?

112288

It would be helpful if, when quoting media articles, posters would clarify where an article ends and personal opinion begins.

Thanks,

Sam

Wow. Celtics tried to trade up for Charlotte's #9 pick and offered a king's ransom to get it but were rebuffed. SIX picks (!) including four potential first rounders!! And MJ turned them down:

"The Celtics made a strong final push to multiple teams in spots 4-9 on draft day. It culminated with an all-in effort in attempt to get Charlotte to deliver the No. 9 pick with Boston lusting for Duke forward Justise Winslow (the same player they coveted while trying to shuffle higher).

According to sources, the Celtics' final offer to the Hornets was a package that could have featured as many as six draft picks, including four potential first-round selections (a combination of picks from this draft and in the future). But the Hornets could not be swayed and turned down multiple offers to select Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky."

http://www.sbnation.com/2015/6/26/8852517/nba-draft-2015-frank-kaminsky-charlotte-hornets-michael-jordan

I've seen it described as six nickels (the draft picks) are better than one quarter (Frank Kaminsky), so the Hornets should have accepted the swap. However, one can only play five of the nickels at a time, so one quarter plus four other coins of any denomination are better than five nickels.

In other words, quality is better than quantity. Now where have I read that before?

gyso

After getting rebuffed in his attempt to move up in the draft it seems that DA went back into asset gathering mode, drafting guys who may or may not be better than what he already has but who may be good trade bait along with current players.

DA is still sowing the seeds. We still must wait to see if there's a harvest to reap.

Sure, there's the "quality over quantity" thing but if any of those draft picks being offered were the ones from Brooklyn, then MJ is freaking nuts because those could be quite high, higher than #9.

I do agree with the first half of the article. Forget the "woulda, coulda, shoulda" of making the playoffs. Forget the "woulda, coulda, shoulda" of trading up. For whatever reason, Ainge's greed or MJ's tunnel vision or owners being afraid of being bamboozled by Trader Danny, it didn't happen. Forget the "woulda, coulda, shoulda" of drafting this guy or the next. College games don't always translate well to the NBA and vice-versa.

I even agree with the part about how our future is no clearer today. HOWEVER, I feel that way because I don't know what else Danny has up his sleeve. We know every GM in the league is on the phone talking deals, we don't know what's cooking (and, as we just saw, we cannot believe the 'reports' that come out unless they are from Woj). One trade, just one, and suddenly things might become as clear as crystal. If Danny trades Sully and a bunch of picks for Cousins and then Danny signs Kevin Love that makes things a lot more clear, right? You might not like Cousins' attitude or Love's defense, but there'd be no doubt about who/what we have, is there?

Stay calm, grasshoppers, stay calm. As another poster quite accurately said on another thread (NYCelt?), this is the first intermission of a 3 act play. I've seen no evidence yet, just 2 days after the draft, to change my opinion that Trader Danny isn't still in full-blown active mode. In fact, if anything, Danny has said that we have too many guards and "some tough decisions have to be made" and that means he's not done. They won't ship EVERYBODY off to Maine or Europe.


bob


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I don't know why the Celtics' situation is foggier after the draft than before it.  Once it became apparent that none of the lottery teams would part with its #1, I didn't count on this draft to have any major impact in the Celtics' development.  And there's a good possibility that will be exactly the case, although a couple of the picks might have some bonus value.

Sam

Foggier?  Wait…

if the goal is to be playing in a conference final within the next 4 or 5 seasons, then 3 or 4 seasons from now we could hypothetically look like…

PG-Rozier, Thomas, Player
SG-Smart, Hunter, Player
SF-Player, Turner, Crowder
PF-Player, Mickey, Player
C-Player, Zeller, Player

Clearer picture than last year at this time, with a guard rotation taking shape and some key reserves on the roster.  Half of that future contending roster could already be here; young, talented and learning.

Tell that CSNE writer to get his glasses checked.  I think he needs a new prescription.

sam wrote:It would be helpful if, when quoting media articles, posters would clarify where an article ends and personal opinion begins.

Thanks,

Sam

SAM,

RICH LEVINE ARTICLE >CSNE  

WHEN I POST ARTICLES WRITTEN BY OTHERS I DO NOT INJECT PERSONAL OPINIONS! I DO NOT NEED TO HIDE BEHIND SOMEONE ELSE ............I CALL IT AS I SEE IT ON MY OWN AND DON'T NEED THE COVER OF SOMEONE ELSE'S WORK!

112288

112288,

I wasn't criticizing.  I was just confused as to whether the last sentence (regarding Lawson) was you or the author doing the writing.  After all, you signed the post immediately after that sentence.  I've seen many posters respond to the posting of articles as though they assumed the posts were the opinion of the posters rather than the real authors, and one of the jobs of a moderator is to try to minimize possibilities for misunderstanding.  No one is impugning your freedom to express or not express your own opinions as you see fit.

If you never inject personal opinions when you post articles written by others, not everybody will instinctively know, assume, or remember that fact every time they read a post signed by you (or anyone else).  As moderator, I was simply suggesting a small concession to posting clarity, just as Bob Heckler makes it a point to leave no question about what is a writer's opinion and what consists of Bob's own "notes."

Sorry if you were somehow offended.

Sam

Sam,

No I always sign off any post that I post regardless if it is a copy and paste.  If you go to CSNE you'll see Levines story word for word that I posted.  In retrospect, after looking at what I copied and posted I did not notice that I did not pickup Levine's name last night.  My error on clarity.

No hard feeling Sam, You know I Love you..............I guess I am a little grumpy and on edge as to what Danny did in the draft.  The only, and I say only business Danny had in drafting Rosier is there must be a sign and trade or trade waiting to happen that includes one or more of our guards and that is why he drafted him.  Dekker was the choice or Portis.

112288

What Danny has to do now is lie low and wait in the weeds until someone is stuck with a situation that needs the Celtics assistance.

Then Danny can play hardball..............I think Danny was chasing ghosts and made a fatal negotiating error by overplaying the hand by overpaying in his offer.   He knew it would be revealed in the press by some loud mouth if he failed.  Now everyone will be banging Danny for the same terms on other deals.

Danny has to hit the free agency market hard and not worry about loose change in negotiating price. Just get a deal done.

112288

PS................FIRST CALL SHOULD BE TO LARRY SANDERS AGENT!

112288,

Your comments are always as welcome as the articles you post.  It needn't be "either or."

Agreed on hitting the free agent market hard.  I always thought all the emphasis on the draft as a solution for the Celtics was misplaced.

In terms of marrying need with opportunity, i'm hoping Danny will make a big push for Robin Lopez, who's unrestricted.  My own belief is that solidifying the defensive center situation will create the kind of foundation that will pave the way for Danny to shift his focus to (1) shoring up positions that are easier to upgrade and (2) transition from player quantity to quality, and (3) ensuring that players are assigned to positions for which they're best suited.  I'm not bullish on expending max free agent money for any other position until the Celtics have addressed the center spot.

Sam

Lopez could be a sleeper that the Celtics could just blow him away with an offer that no one could come close to.

I'll take him!

The Celtic I think have to back into a star center by signing several star players in other positions i.e. small forward, power forward and surround them with very good role players. Crowder is a very good role player.

Play hard, improve your record, and you'll attract a great center and for that matter a great point guard as well.

What made the Garnett and Allan deal happen was having a super star named Paul Pierce on your team. That is what we have to replicate.

112288

Nets do it again with latest trade:

http://deadspin.com/we-need-to-talk-about-that-dumb-trade-the-brooklyn-nets-1714229372

I have no problem with the Nyets continuing to go backward with the abundance of their picks we own. Love it.

steve3344 wrote:Nets do it again with latest trade:

http://deadspin.com/we-need-to-talk-about-that-dumb-trade-the-brooklyn-nets-1714229372

I have no problem with the Nyets continuing to go backward with the abundance of their picks we own.  Love it.

steve,

Thanks for the link.

So, here's some roster resets, players under contract only; () indicate players in a secondary position

Portland Trailblazers

5 - Plumlee, Leonard, (Vonleh)
4 - Vonleh
3 - Henderson, Connaughton, Crabbe
2 - CJ McCollum,
1 - Lillard,

Kaman with a team option, as yet unannounced if they will pick it up
Aldridge and Lopez UFAs, Aldridge almost certainly gone.


Brooklyn Nyets

5 -
4 -
3 - (Bogdanovich)
2 - Joe Johnson, Bogdanovich, Karasev
1 - DWill, Jack, Blake

UFAa = Lopez, T. Young
Player Option = Alan Anderson
Team Option =  Earl Clark

There's going to be some real activity going on with both of these teams this off-season, they both have SO many holes to fill.  Brooklyn's problem is that they only have overpaid, over-the-hill players to trade and only their 2017 and 2019 picks to offer.  Maybe Danny could give them Sully and Wallace + $10M TPE (to pay for Wallace, so they get him for free) for their 2017 pick?  They're in free fall.  If their draft pick next year, which we own, isn't in the top 5 it probably will be the year after that.  As far as Portland goes, give them Sully and whatever for a sign-and-trade for Lopez.


bob



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We already have the right to take their '17 first rounder, the right to swap picks.

That could be worth another 3-4 first rounders in a trade down to our original draft position that year.

I like the idea of the continuing to work backwards as well. Hope they stay with this plan for at least a few more seasons.

Kosta Koufos is the center most likely to sign with the Celtics and it will not cost a fortune. You can get a deal done below $10M.

He is young, tough, rim protector and you are not giving away the kitchen sink to get a good center. By far much better then Asik.

112288

112288 wrote:Kosta Koufos is the center most likely to sign with the Celtics and it will not cost a fortune.  You can get a deal done below $10M.

He is young, tough, rim protector and you are not giving away the kitchen sink to get a good center. By far much better then Asik.

112288

112288,

I have no idea how likely it is or is not that Koufos would sign with the Celtics but I agree with you he is preferable to Asik, maybe preferable to Lopez although I like Lopez's BBIQ.


bob



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