Rondo vs the field

In some moments of weakness, I went over to BDC and did some posting. Mostly because Dudder was pissing me off. He was still going on and on about how Rondo isn't a top tier point guard. I decided life was too bucolic, so I clubbed him like a baby seal. Some of the players below are there because Dudder specifically claimed they were better point guards than Rondo, NOT because I thought they were worthy. In fact, I got a kick out his claim that Luther Head and Acie Law are better point guards than Rondo.

Here's my last post to him:

Here are some stats for a bunch of point guards. These are courtesy of 82games.com. The first number is the PER for the player, the second is the PER of the point guards who have opposed him. The difference between them tells you whether they do better than the players they played against. If the difference is negative, they played worse than their opponent. I've highlighted players with a negative PER versus their opponents.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with PER, it is John Hollinger's attempt to take into account a player's efficiency. Hollinger freely admits that it does not do a good job of taking into account a players defensive abilities. It includes blocks and steals, but doesn't take into account many of the little things that make up a good defensive player (e.g. shot intimidation, ball denial). Furthermore, Hollinger gives heavier weight to 3pt fgs than 2pt fgs by a 1.6:1 ratio even though the 3pter is only worth 1.5x as much. So, we have to take this stuff with a grain of salt. Also, for those of you who are unfamiliar, 15.0 is the league average. If a player's PER is higher than 15.0, he's above average. Last caveat, some players play multiple positions. 82games.com breaks down the player's PER based upon how much time they spend at each position (e.g. DWade plays PG and SG, mostly SG. He'll have 2 PERs; one for PG and another for SG). I am ONLY using their point guard PERs.

Player PER/ Opposing PER /Difference
C Paul 28.8/ 19.4 /+9.4
Nash 25.6/ 15.7 /+9.9
Billups 23.9/ 16.9 /+7.0
D Williams 22.6/ 14.3 /+8.3
Rondo 22.3/ 16.5 /+5.8
Bibby 14.7/ 16.8 /-2.1
Kidd 20.5/ 17.1 /+3.4
Arenas 21.1/ 19.6 /+1.5
Tyreke Evans 20.7/ 16.9 /+3.8
B Davis 20.0/ 17.9 /+2.1
T Parker 19.2/ 15.6 /+3.6
Jose Calderon 19.2/ 22.6 / -3.4
D Rose 18.9/ 15.0 /+3.9
Randy Foye 18.4/ 15.9 /+2.5
Mo Williams 17.9/ 18.0 / -.1
Devin Harris 17.8/ 19.5 /-1.7
Andre Miller 17.6/ 15.4 /+2.2
Aaron Brooks 17.3/ 14.9 /+2.9
Felton 16.6/ 16.1 /+.5
J Jack 16.4/ 15.6 /+.8
J Nelson 15.3/ 17.9 /-2.6
TJ Ford 15.3/ 16.1 /-.8
M. Chalmers 13.7/ 17.4 /-.7
Mike Conley 13.5/ 17.3 /-3.8
Hinrich 12.9/ 9.3 /+3.6
Head 12.2/ BUT 0 TIME AS PG
Rafer Alston 10.9/ 13.5 /-2.6
Acie Law 10.8/ 43.0 /-32.2
J. Tinsley 9.2/ 16.2 /-8.0

I am not defending Rondo's free throw shooting. It makes me sick. I see no excuse for a player who's used to having the ball in his hands not being able to shoot a 15' standing set shot with nobody trying to stop you. But I think it's clear we can stop talking about Rondo as if he's not an upper-tier NBA point guard. He's 5th in PER and he's 5th in PER differential. If you look at the Roland Ratings (a variation of PER), he's 4th. And let's remember that Hollinger admits he doesn't give enough credit to defense, which is one of All-NBA Defensive Second Team nominee's Rajon Rondo's strengths.

bob

bobheck

stay in the light and away from the darkness

Bob-

thanks for not listing Fisher's PER differential. I can only imagine how bad it is. In fact, it's probably ghastly.

Acie Law and Luther Head are far superior to Rondo, huh ? If that's the level of discussion on BDC these days, just one more reason to be glad for Sam's World.

I would put Rondo as the 6th best PG in the game. CP3, Nash, Billups and Williams are no brainers. I would also rank Rose slightly ahead of him, but I think you can make a good argument either way. Nash and Billups are better players right now, but that's going to change over the next couple of years as Rondo keeps developing and father time catches up with those guys.

So if I were starting a team from scratch today, Rondo would be # 4 behind only CP3, DWill and Rose. Not too shabby for a guy who was picked in the 20's in the draft- all those other guys were top 5 picks.

The next two guys on the list for me would be Steph Curry and Darren Collison. Both really impressive. Add in John Wall next year and that's an amazing group of young point guards- the best I can ever remember.

babyskyhook wrote:Bob-

thanks for not listing Fisher's PER differential. I can only imagine how bad it is. In fact, it's probably ghastly.

Acie Law and Luther Head are far superior to Rondo, huh ? If that's the level of discussion on BDC these days, just one more reason to be glad for Sam's World.

I would put Rondo as the 6th best PG in the game. CP3, Nash, Billups and Williams are no brainers. I would also rank Rose slightly ahead of him, but I think you can make a good argument either way. Nash and Billups are better players right now, but that's going to change over the next couple of years as Rondo keeps developing and father time catches up with those guys.

So if I were starting a team from scratch today, Rondo would be # 4 behind only CP3, DWill and Rose. Not too shabby for a guy who was picked in the 20's in the draft- all those other guys were top 5 picks.

The next two guys on the list for me would be Steph Curry and Darren Collison. Both really impressive. Add in John Wall next year and that's an amazing group of young point guards- the best I can ever remember.

bsh,

I looked up D-Fish's PER when I was putting this together and you're right, it's pretty ghastly. Farmar is better, but not by much. Oh well, I don't think you were any delusions that you were going to make your repeat based upon the quality of your point guard corp and every team has a weakness. What surprised me, though, is that Shannon Brown isn't better. His PERs as both pg and sg are below 15.0 and his opponent's PERs are higher. Another good reason to take all this crap with a bucket of salt.

Rondo just turned 25. His shooting is getting a little better. As he improves he'll start to look better against the other players you mentioned. Even so, I can live with the 5th or 6th top point guard out of 30.

bob

I was just over at that other bored, too. I find the archives to be interesting reading, if you can navigate your way around. I found the two posts below, dated 11/10/07, and thought they provided a good reference point for the present. The name of the guy who wrote them is at the end, as always.

spike



"A year ago, I saw a young man whose open court skills truly were Cousyesque - not his entire game, but his open court skills. I also saw a young man who could be a defensive disruptor, whose hands were like fly paper, and who could actually turn games around accordingly. But he struggled to some extent in the halfcourt and, of course, with his shot.A year later, here's my assessment. Despite the fact that last season's Celtics were clearlly in need of weapons, and despite the fact that they had some greyhounds on the team, the team never really ran a lot (after the first two preseason games) and never really capitalized on Rondo's transition skills to any major degree. Moreover, rather than trying to take advantage of his frenetic defensive play, Doc tried to harness itùmaking Rondo "earn time" by becoming more controlled at that end.I'm not ragging on Doc for these moves because much of that team was almost childlike in its inability to cope with concepts beyond the very simplistic. On a team like the Suns, Rondo could have spelled Nash for 12-15 minutes a game and utilized his strengths to create yet another weapon for the team. On the Celtics, he was reined in until near the end of the season, when wins were no longer relevant and he was allowed to do a little more of what came naturally.The results of those last few games were pretty encouraging, but he still had major roadblocks. He was beseiged by concerns about his shooting. And he needed a team that would move without the ball in the halfcourt in order to open up passing angles; and he was also without a role model to emulate in the halfcourt.But he shut up, took his 500 shots a day in the summer, and then found another very new set of circumstances awaiting. Most important, the playmaking job was,in effect, filled primarily by KG, and Rondo was apparently told that his main job on offense was to bring the ball up the floor (which he does very well), throw the entry pass, and go stand in the corner. This team (especially Ray) is actually doing a better job of moving without the ball in the forecourt, but it doesn't impact Rondo a whole lot because he doesn't have the ball much. Even Ray's open looks are generally created by one of the Amigos. KG has pretty much claimed the low post as his territory (being extremely effective there). Sometimes Perk's in there too. There's not a lot of reason for Rondo to force penetration into a defense of tall timber hanging around the basket; and he's been blocked or has tossed up an errant floater on some occasions when he's tried.The team fast breaks mainly on the occasions when the mood strikes KG, who has even been effective with the home run pass at times. Since the beginning of preseason, there have been numerous times when Rondo has gotten the ball and sprinted upfloor to find himself alone.Not one syllable of this is intended as a criticism of Doc or KG or anyone else. Both last year and this, Doc has gone with the concepts and playing styles that he felt gave the team the best chance to win games. But the question for me is not whether Rondo's ready to run an offense but rather whether the offense is ready to seize upon Rondo's strengths and put him in a position to succeed.And make no mistake that I believe it's all about the offense. His defensive game is more under control, and he's still getting steals. But I think his offensive malaise may be beginning to take the edge off his defensive game as well. Because of a power outage, I didn't see the Toronto game; but his defensive lapses against Ford (given pretty good successes versus Ford in the past) had the earmarks of mental rather than physical mistakes. One of the best ways to slow down a guy's offense is to make him work harder on defense, and you can't do that if you're a minor part of your own team's offense.Finally, I am coming to the conclusion that the reason the Celtics didn't go after someone like Knight was NOT because they had confidence in Rondo to run the offense. I think it was because they realized that the Amigos would run the offense, in effect relegating the PG to auxiliary status on the team. (KG's ability to take over this function personally may have surprised them a bit.) The philosophy seems to be to win from the get-go, even at the potential cost of burning out the Amigos. Any possibility of really involving the PG seems relegated (at best) to practice, and I have no idea whether it's even happening there.In the meantime, I'm sensing an increasingly dispirited Rondo (although he's publicly stoic). He's even hitting more midrange jumpers than a year ago. He's under more control on the defensive end. But, in reality, he seems less a part of the team core than he was a year ago.After tonight's game, I'll miss a few games while I'm out of the country on a little trip (although I'll try to tape those games for later viewing). Upon my return (Tuesday night), i'll be interested in feedback from others as to whether my Rondo theory seems to be holding water or is just a crock. I hope, for the sake of Rondo and the team, that it's the latter.Sam"

also on 11/10/07 as a followup:
"I've thought all along that the 15-18 footer was not nearly as important a priority for Rondo as most people assumed; and that's even more likely given the firepower of the Three Amigos. Yet, ironically, it's the area in which he has arguably made the most progress (at least out to 12-15 feet) recently. But, as things stand now, even that doesn't matter a whole lot because his outside shots appear destined to be relatively few in number.

The important thing is to find some accommodation between his playmaking talents/instincts and the Celtics offense. Right now, it's far from an ideal match.

Frankly, why would they try to change a system where Garnett basically runs the offense when the system seems to be working? Perhaps only if key injuries hit or the Amigos start wearing down.

Why would they try to institute more uptempo basketball (particularly as the season wears on) when it doesn't seem that the Amigos readily take to a regular diet of it? Rondo needs able and willing running mates for that.

They have some huge assets now, and they're less likely to focus on empowering Rondo if it means potentially requiring adjustments of the Amigos. I'm always the optimist but also the realist. And, right now, I'm having difficulties envisioning scenarios where Rondo's development is likely to be expedited. He's more likely to improve by chance.

Ironically, it might be worse for the team if they had gotten another PG such as Bibby or even Knight. I wonder whether a veteran might have tried to impose his will more strongly, possibly resulting in some sort of internal turf war.

Who knows? I just know that I see a very promising PG, with instincts that can't be taught, and an excellent attitude and willingness to work like a dog.....and it almost seems as though he's become the sacrificial lamb for the greater good of the team. And yet one has to wonder whether it really is the "greater good" long term, as it places huge responsibilities on three guys.

And perhaps the most unfortunate aspect is that, given the tendency of so many to blame the victim, Rondo could become increasingly the "fall guy" in all of this.

Sam"

Bob -
my first reaction, besides that DUdder is an idiot and curiosity as to why you botheredto play with him - ok, i guess i know why ! <G> - is that wow -- Nash really is a piece of work, and isn't he having a stellar season !! as a Denver guy, nice to see Billups fare well in the PER ratings, since the Nuggets are lost without him. they fare much better with Melo out of the line up than they do when they're missing Billups.

and to your point, Rondo has and is accomplishing a lot, especially with his three Amigo teammates to defer and distribute to. it was interesting to see on SUnday that little Lawson might be even quicker than our Rondo, he bpothered Rondo some, but they're damn few who can lay claim to being either quicker or faster!

BSH's point about some of these guys being on the verge of time catching up with them is of course well taken. but time is catching up with some of our own as well. fortunately powers that be have decided against turning this into a re-tooling year, so the time to make a run for the ring is NOW ! and as Rondo showed last year, he can really lead the charge in the playoffs. and no way would i take the very talented Rose over our Rondo.

regards,
Michael

Rose doesn't have the vision of a true distributor

Keeping 3 future HOFers happy is tough business. Rondo has pulled it off and he did it BEFORE he came into his own.

What surprised me is that Mo Williams, Jose Calderon, Jameer Nelson and Mike Bibby are all negative defferentials. Guess that's why none of them are all-stars this year even though they're all healthy.

bob

bobheckler wrote:Keeping 3 future HOFers happy is tough business. Rondo has pulled it off and he did it BEFORE he came into his own.

What surprised me is that Mo Williams, Jose Calderon, Jameer Nelson and Mike Bibby are all negative defferentials. Guess that's why none of them are all-stars this year even though they're all healthy.

bob

agreed - Ronda was setting up the Amigos before he developed some of the other facets of his game that he's grown into. now when he drives he's a threat to score as well as dish. i expect that in another year or two, his 10-12 foot jumper will become more reliable, too. and i remember readin that S Nash wasn't much of a shooter in his early days, and now he drains dagger three's !!

and those negative differentials surprised me too, Bob, including Jameer and Bibby in particular. thanks for digging this stuff up !

regards, all
Michael

I posted that old quote from Sam about Rondo because of what he wrote about Rondo's role in the offense way back in the beginning.

When Sam analyzed the Celtics offense of November, 2007 he pointed out how KG was becoming the playmaker out of the low post, and that meant the offense wasn't taking advantage of Rondo's strengths, in transition and in the movement in the halfcourt game. "Rondo was apparently told that his main job on offense was to bring the ball up the floor (which he does very well), throw the entry pass, and go stand in the corner. "

Sam also observed how the Three Amigos would run the offense, "in effect relegating the PG to auxiliary status on the team."

Then KG went down and Rondo surged into the breach in last year's playoffs. This year it certainly began to look as though the offense was realigning into one in which the point guard is the playmaker. There've even been glimmers of a transition game, with Rondo and Tony flying down the court in rather breathtaking fashion.

Now that KG's healthy, who's the playmaker, KG or Rondo? The point is that this team doesn't have an offensive identity and without Paul's iso game, while trying to incorporate Nate, it was offensive anarchy.

When they're good, they're very good, but when they're bad, they suck.