Creative Celtics

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4719807/creative-celtics



Creative Celtics
6h





Fernando Medina/NBAE/Getty Images
Chris Forsberg, ESPN Staff Writer




SALT LAKE CITY -- At midnight Thursday, the NBA's moratorium period will (finally) lift and, armed with official salary cap numbers for the 2015-16 season, the Boston Celtics can start formally assembling their roster for next season.

That task is a bit more daunting than you might imagine.

While the Celtics have made a handful of moves over the first eight days of free agency -- coming to agreements with Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko and Jae Crowder, while also prepping a trade that will deliver David Lee from Golden State -- the tricky part now is sequencing those moves to allow the team to execute them under the guidelines set forth by collective bargaining agreement.

By examining how the Celtics might proceed, it hammers home the savvy nature of Boston's front office. The Celtics are set to drop below the salary cap for the first time in nearly two decades and, in doing so, must carefully plot their moves in order to maximize the space they are creating.

In the aftermath of reports that the Celtics would acquire Lee and his bulky $15.5 million contract, former Brooklyn Nets assistant general manager Bobby Marks said, "Not sure how Mike Z in BOS will make it work but possible."

That's Mike Zarren, Boston's assistant general manager and team counsel. A Harvard Law School and University of Chicago grad, he's the team's brainy capologist who has helped structure deals to maximize the return for Boston. The one that continues to grow in lore is the 2013 blockbuster between the Celtics and Nets in which Boston delivered Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry in exchange for a haul headlined by three first-round picks. The deal was restructured from an initial incarnation to allow Boston to create a hefty trade exception for Pierce's salary.

What became of that exception? Well, there's a flow chart that has evolved from the trade as a whole (made by our buddy Ryan Bernardoni, who ought to be an NBA front-office guy with his own cap savvy). It'll make you go cross-eyed trying to trace it, but you can make the case that the Celtics-Nets trade has helped deliver roster players Isaiah Thomas, Tyler Zeller, James Young, Jordan Mickey and, soon, Lee. All while Boston still waits to collect on two of those three first-round picks (and has the ability to swap first-round picks with Brooklyn in 2017).

Rebuilding a franchise isn't easy, and the Celtics have tried to find every advantage that can help accelerate that process. One misstep in roster construction can doom a team to mediocrity for an extended stretch.

The Celtics have worked hard to maintain salary flexibility, and many of the moves made this summer are geared toward having deep pockets again next summer when the opportunity to land a superstar might finally present itself.

The focus in the immediate future is putting together this salary puzzle for next year's team. And here's a glimpse at the grunt work that lies ahead for Zarren:


Step 1: Renouncements

In order to dip below the cap formally, the Celtics have to renounce the rights to anyone with a lingering cap hold on their books (save for Jerebko, whose signing should be one of the first processed). Sounds simple enough, right? Not when you consider that the likes of Michael Olowokandi, Shaquille O'Neal, Nenad Krstic, and Stephon Marbury linger on Boston's books. How is that possible, you wonder? Well, there's never been a reason to clear them out. Boston has perpetually lived above the cap the past two decades, and the holds did nothing to hinder that. In the quest for long-awaited cap space, they all must go (yes, even you, Roshown McLeod). What's more, Boston must renounce all of its lingering trade exceptions, especially the largest ones like a $12.9 million exception from the Rajon Rondo trade last December. This is a matter of consternation for many Celtics fans because of the haul generated in part from the Pierce trade exception of a similar value. Don't fret, Boston fans, the cap space generated is more valuable for Boston in roster construction. The Celtics are essentially setting the table to start processing moves with a cleaner slate.


Step 2: Get the ball rolling

The Celtics will enter July 9 with 11 players under contract for roughly $42.3 million (that includes the nonguaranteed deals of Chris Babb and Phil Pressey). They'll have additional cap holds on restricted free agent Crowder ($1.2 million), first-round picks Terry Rozier ($1.5 million) and R.J. Hunter ($957,000), and Jerebko will temporarily be on the books for an $8 million hold. That gives Boston an initial commitment of roughly $53.7 million with a salary cap that was projected at $67.1 million but could climb toward $69 million once the accounting is complete.

Boston's first move will be to sign Jerebko, who has agreed to a two-year, $10 million contract. With Jerebko's estimated salary at $5 million for next season, Boston's cap commitment will actually drop to $50.7 million by replacing his bulky $8 million cap hold.

The Celtics could also immediately sign Johnson to his two-year, $24 million deal. An estimated $12 million salary pushes Boston's salary commitment to $62.7 million, and that's where things start to get interesting.

If Boston elects to process the Lee trade as the initial iteration suggests -- sending out Wallace and a nonguaranteed contract, Boston will be taking back $4.5 million in additional salary in the swap. Pending the final cap number, that will push them toward the edge. The Celtics could clear another $1 million by waiving whichever nonguaranteed deal (Pressey or Babb) that doesn't go to Golden State.

Assuming both Pressey and Babb are dropped from the books and the trade is completed as currently structured, Boston would then have a salary commitment that would look a bit like this:

David Lee -- $15.5 million

Amir Johnson -- $12 million

Avery Bradley -- $7.7 million

Isaiah Thomas -- $6.9 million

Jonas Jerebko -- $5 million

Marcus Smart -- $3.4 million

Evan Turner -- $3.4 million

Tyler Zeller -- $2.6 million

Jared Sullinger -- $2.3 million

Kelly Olynyk -- $2.2 million

James Young -- $1.7 million

Terry Rozier -- $1.5 million

Jae Crowder -- $1.2 million

RJ Hunter -- $1 million

Remember that Crowder, Rozier and Hunter would still be just holds. Those signings still need to be processed, but should be at the end of the to-do list in order to maximize immediately available space. Boston would stand at roughly $65.2 million committed, but that number is going up.


Step 3: Sign the rookies

The Celtics might not rush to sign their rookies, typically a perfunctory act, in order to maintain an extra sliver of cap space. The team typically pays its rookies 120 percent of the scale -- the most allowed -- which means Rozier's cap commitment will jump to $1.8 million and Hunter's will bump to $1.1 million. It's not much, but whenever those signings happen, it adds nearly $500,000 to the books.

Likewise in waiting mode is second-round pick Jordan Mickey. A minimum contract would start at $525,000. The Celtics can wait until the books are in order to add Mickey. Boston's final pick of this year's draft, Marcus Thornton, is likely to spend next season overseas or in the D-League to work on his development.


Step 4: Re-sign Crowder

The Celtics have agreed to re-sign Crowder to a five-year, $35 million deal. By owning his rights, Boston has the ability to leap back over the cap in order to sign him. So after maximizing their cap space with the Johnson and Lee moves, Boston can replace Crowder's current hold and jump above the cap again with his re-signing.

Some will groan that Boston utilized a rare trip below the cap simply to sign a pair of aging power forwards in Johnson and Lee. Keep in mind that, with Johnson and Jerebko expected on nonguaranteed deals in the second year of their contracts, and Lee coming off the books, the Celtics will be positioned to dip well below the cap again next season -- especially with a spike looming. There will be another opportunity to use rare space to try to lure star talent.


Step 5: More trades on deck?

The Celtics can simply call it an offseason and stand pat with a 15-man roster when all these moves are completed. More likely, they'll continue to examine the trade market and look for ways to (1) remove clutter and (2) add the sort of talent that can help now without sacrificing future flexibility.

Boston's depth chart would look like this in the aftermath of its initial moves (using coach Brad Stevens' four position system and acknowledging that some players overlap categories):

• Ball handlers: Smart, Thomas, Rozier, Turner

• Wings: Bradley, Young, Hunter

• Swings: Crowder, Jerebko, Mickey

• Bigs: Lee, Johnson, Olynyk, Sullinger, Zeller

There's a logjam up front, even though Boston has a variety of bigs. Stevens struggled to find minutes for five bigs last season, and something might have to give this year to generate enough minutes for this group.

With Smart expected to take on more ballhandling duties and with Rozier to add some depth behind him, we've wondered whether Turner becomes a bit more expendable. His versatility was extremely valuable last season, but if Smart is running the offense and Crowder projects to be your starting swingman, it limits Turner's role moving forward (though the big-man crunch might be more of Boston's priority in the immediate future).

The Celtics could use some help on the wing. There's some clamoring in the fan base about exploring the possibility of adding Danilo Gallinari, who is reportedly on the trading block in Denver. Could Boston spark interest somewhere with its big-man surplus and picks while maneuvering for another wing scorer?

The Celtics must hope development from their youngest players, along with the infusion of bigs like Lee and Johnson, will be enough to give them a boost forward after last year's run to the postseason. Boston, in its initial post-processing iteration, doesn't look like an elite contender, but the Celtics project to be in the playoff mix in the Eastern Conference.

Flexibility maintained, the team would continue to look for deals that could maximize the return -- all while hoping their patience and attention to detail help deliver the team back to legitimate contender status by next summer.

Let the paperwork processing begin.



bob
MY NOTE: This is why I agree with Sam and say "let Danny worry about the $". The CBA, and all the twists and turns of it, is too complex to jump into mid-stream. Cap holds, baseline salaries, etc just make it impossible. They know that, at the end of the day, the numbers have to work, both in terms of roster size and cap limits. What I know is that Danny and Mike Z are some of the best in the business at creativity. Who was it that traded Gary Payton to Atlanta, who released him, and then immediately re-signed him? That was Trader Danny. The NBA put an injunction in the next CBA to stop people from doing that again but he saw the loophole and drove through it.


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Danny is a genius when it comes to such matters. Those who decry his drafting and trading prowess should remember that he innovated the concept of aggregated superstars to go after a championship, pulling in KG and Ray to complement Paul. That inspired Riley, Lebron, Wade, and Bosh to make their run followed by Lebron, Kyrie, and Love. Props to Danny for knowing how to play the game of putting together a winning team.

Danny is a genius when it comes to such matters. Those who decry his drafting and trading prowess should remember that he innovated the concept of aggregated superstars to go after a championship, pulling in KG and Ray to complement Paul. That inspired Riley, Lebron, Wade, and Bosh to make their run followed by Lebron, Kyrie, and Love. Props to Danny for knowing how to play the game of putting together a winning team.

Danny is a genius when it comes to such matters. Those who decry his drafting and trading prowess should remember that he innovated the concept of aggregated superstars to go after a championship, pulling in KG and Ray to complement Paul. That inspired Riley, Lebron, Wade, and Bosh to make their run followed by Lebron, Kyrie, and Love. Props to Danny for knowing how to play the game of putting together a winning team.

Salary cap officially announced at $70m for 2015-16.

worcester wrote:Danny is a genius when it comes to such matters. Those who decry his drafting and trading prowess should remember that he innovated the concept of aggregated superstars to go after a championship, pulling in KG and Ray to complement Paul. That inspired Riley, Lebron, Wade, and Bosh to make their run followed by Lebron, Kyrie, and Love. Props to Danny for knowing how to play the game of putting together a winning team.

Amen.

and signing Posey, House and PJ Brown and acquiring Leon Powe and Big Baby, that team had 3 legit HoFers and 2 great role players in Rondo and Perk and depth, a truly great great team....what a shame he chose to dismantle that starting 5.

BobH,
 
Oddly enough, I actually understand this explanation, although it leads me to conjecture that there's at least as much again that was left unsaid.  In terms of non-monetary considerations (which I feel should influence monetary decisions rather than the reverse), I would suggest the following:
 
• Actually, none of the players on the list is a true ballhandler, if playmaking and floor generalship are considered an element of ballhandling (or vice versa).  I understand that they're trying to force-fit Smart into that role, but it simply doesn't come instinctively to him; and I'm convinced that a ballhandling/playmaking/floor general role should be played by someone with an instinct for it.  Moreover, Smart has difficulty guarding opposing "5s," and his defensive prowess is diluted accordingly.  (And any thoughts that the "4" and "5" can switch defensive assignments every trip down the floor are not consistent with basketball reality.)
 
• So I'd actually put Smart and Thomas (despite his diminutive stature) in the "wings" category and Turner in the "swings" category.  Lo and behold:
 
- Ball handlers: NONE
- Wings: Smart, Thomas, Bradley, Young, Hunter, Rozier
- Swings: Turner, Crowder, Jerebko, Mickey
- Bigs: Lee, Johnson, Olynyk, Sullinger, Zeller
 
• Obviously, the dearth of true ballhandlers/playmakers/floor generals underscores the need to get one—and hopefully not a midget.  (More on this shortly.)  By the way, perhaps Rozier can grow into a legitimate "1" and maybe he can't, but I'm talking about the present.
 
• I disagree with starting Crowder.  I think he's much more valuable being a vital cog off the bench and as part of the "finishing" five than trying to beg for touches among the starters and forcing up shots when he does touch the ball.
 
• Young and Hunter are pretty much the same player (with Hunter having a defensive edge); and, right now, they're both playing dismally.  Yeah, yeah, yeah, the Summer League has just started; they’re both young; yada yada.  A team (even one that's unlikely to be a strong contender) can't afford what amounts to two similar projects on the same squad.  I say pick your poison and let the other one go—probably Young because his reputation for potential might make him slightly more valuable trade bait. 
 
• Turner's more useful as a swing man than as a ballhandler, which is not his forte; and I believe Evan could amp up his offense if he didn't have so many ball-handling responsibilities.  Barring a trade for another wing (which I wouldn't mind at all), I'd prefer to see Turner starting at SF, with Crowder backing him up, while Evan would also be available to swing to the 1 and 2 positions when appropriate.
 
• Better yet, I’d be sanguine with trading for Gallinari and letting him swing between SF and PF with Turner swinging between the 1, 2 and 3 positions. 
 
• Gallinari and Lawson—my dream trade.  Denver can choose from among Sully, Kelly, Turner, Bradley, Young, and several draft picks.  Maybe even Thomas if essential, although I value his dynamic approach to end-of-game situations.
 
• Nowhere in all of this have I mentioned my number one mantra of the winter: a need for a defensive intimidator in the middle.  That just doesn’t seem to be in the cards this off-season unless the Celtics can intercept a lateral of D’Andre Jordan from the Mavs to the Clippers or vice versa.  (LOL)  Barring a lightening strike from Danny (always a possibility), I now realize that next year may offer a better opportunity to snag Mr. Right.  In the meantime, I believe David Lee will get as many minutes as a one-year, place-holding center as his body can withstand—hopefully sharing the position with Zeller and practically no one else.  Lee is the polar opposite of the defensive stud I’d prefer, but I believe his offensive and rebounding skills can meet important needs of the team and can make life a little easier for the PFs with whom he is teamed—while, in turn, they’re making life easier for him by providing some pretty good defense.  If Danny can surprise me and come up with the Stud during this offseason, All Hail Danny.
 
I’m not looking for stars.  Perhaps that will happen next off-season, with its mushrooming cap and the presence of a pretty high Nets pick.  What I hope Danny will do is to put together a balanced squad (balanced by positional representation), with people playing complementary roles in which they all feel comfortable.  If Danny can also inject some dynamite (as with his acquisitions of Thomas and Crowder last season) and/or pull a few surprises out of his hat, so much the better.
 
Sam

its not that complicated, if you are a numbers person.

I said at the time the Johnson signing was made, that we were under the cap at that point.

there really was/is no other way to get that signing done otherwise.

I don't like the Johnson signing not WITH the Lee trade. one or the other I could see (Lee especially) but to me Johnson has never been anything more than a journey man power forward.

Adding Gallinari to this group , makes this off-season more like the old "trader Danny" days than the KG/Allen championship build to me.

you guys remember that, when trades were made just to make them. Trader Danny wasn't a positive nickname.

anyhow, I will hope that Ainge does have some grand plan in his head, though suspect he is hoping to luck into that next Garnett deal.

Johnson
Lee
Gallinari

a month ago, if most Celtic fans were told that would be our biggest off-season moves, most would say no way, it does nothing to improve the team long term (or short term frankly)

I still think that Johnson comes over to the Celtics via a sign and trade. His announced salary fits nicely into the Rondo TPE. With him on board, along with the signing of Lee, will allow both of them to play a little at the 5 position. With Zeller, the three of them can use up most of the minutes there. Perhaps include some time with Kelly there in certain situations.

Perhaps Ainge will wait things out with (mostly) what he has now and then pounce on a better solution to the rim protection as we get closer to the beginning of the season or later near the trading deadline.

gyso

cowens/oldschool wrote:and signing Posey, House and PJ Brown and acquiring Leon Powe and Big Baby, that team had 3 legit HoFers and 2 great role players in Rondo and Perk and depth, a truly great great team....what a shame he chose to dismantle that starting 5.

Trading one of the role players and keeping everybody else = "dismantling" a starting 5?

Perk was not worth the money OKC paid him. He wasn't.


bob


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kdp,

I would have been very concerned about the Lee acquisition if Danny had not previously acquired Johnson.  I might have been using phrases such as "surrendering the lane once again."  Given the sequence of the two signings, I doubt that Johnson was acquired to help protect Lee on defense, but that's the way it's turning out.  I'm not a huge believer in one player being able to protect another, but I bet the combination of the two of them will be playing many minutes together.

I'm not familiar with the "Old Trader Danny Days" expression, but I gather you like it with a "trade for the sake of trading" policy.  I don't happen to agree that such a policy was ever in force.  But I believe a pickup of Gallinari would solidify the SF position (especially if Turner is used as trade bait) and would help with Brad's efforts to spread the floor.  Moreover, he's a better-than average wing defender, especially in isolation.  Not all that bad a guy to combine with Crowder at SF when the Celts play Lebron or Carmelo.  And some love is due any player who shoots 90% at the line, which is what Gallinari did last season.  I submit that the reasons for acquiring him would be quite logical and purposeful, and not at all reflective of a random move.

It seems to me that Danny's modus operandi includes a well thought-out plan that is subject to revision if an adjustment makes sense over time.  That's why I believe it's a huge mistake to pounce (and I'm not talking about you) on every individual move Danny makes because, in doing so, one would often be over-analyzing the tail that wags the dog.  While many fans look at player moves individually, that's something a good gm cannot afford to do.  There's usually an overall context (aka plan in this case) within which each transaction figures.  A TPE acquired in one month may be used in a player acquisition many months later.

In other words, it's a good idea to let the summer play out, have fun discussing individual moves, but see me in October in terms of the collective implications of the entire body of moves.


Sam

Lee can be traded. Wallace was an near impossible trade. Danny's creating options.

worcester wrote:Lee can be traded. Wallace was an near impossible trade. Danny's creating options.

worcester,

Excellent point. Lee's contract, for the rest of this year, is 50% bigger than Wallace's but Lee can play and Wallace can't anymore and that makes him useful to us and useful to a team that is looking for depth on a playoff bound team and wants to rent him.

What's blowing my mind is that GSW is saying they want to keep Wallace and not buy him out or stretch him out like was presumed. It's going to be interesting to see what he has left in the tank. I know I'll be rooting for him.

If that's the case, then this is a great example of how things just happen in their own natural time and not when fans, or even hyper-active GMs like Danny, want them to happen. Lee was unavailable until after the season and he requested a trade to a team that would play him more.


bob


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Wallace kept on the roster? Amazing.