Summer Quandaries 2: Making The Even Range Of Talent Work

SQ2 Making the Even Range of Talent Work


By Lee Lauderdale






Much has been made of the even, if low, quality of the Celtics roster. While this emphasizes the lack of star quality, it also notes that there are few really bad players on the team (at least last years roster in May). Omitting the outliers James Young and Gerald Wallace, the range of PER and VORP were quite small, if you are trying to back up the eye test with statistics. Looking this up it occurred to me that the Value Over Replacement Player was based on mythical “average” NBA replacement. For our discussion today, I'd like you to consider a completely made-up stat, VOARP or Value Over Actual Replacement Player. My point is this, if you consider quality of second-teamer's, the drop off for the Celtics is minimal compared to Cleveland or any other team with a top-heavy starting five backed up with cheap (often vet min) role players bought with the dregs of the available salary after the big dogs eat their fill. With that disparity of talent level comes a huge dip in performance—think Dellavedova subbing in for Kyrie Irving, or Mike Miller replacing LeBron.

So, how can the Celtics take advantage of this drop-off; how can they turn the disadvantage of mid-level mediocrity into a weapon? The obvious answer seems to be pace, and space. If you turn the game into a track meet, then the stars are forced to play tired with long minutes, or to play fewer minutes and fill in the playing time with their sub par replacements. I feel the need, the need for speed—or as Tommy would say “Run baby, run!” Not only force the stars to hustle back on defense, but spread the floor and move the ball, forcing those big name players to constantly move, fight around screens, close out to the 3-point line, and reverse directions. I get tired just writing about it. Also with the additional energy expenditures, our subs play more of the game against their subs, and our subs are better!

There are other ancillary benefits. More of our offense is executing against a defense still in transition without having had time to set up. Playing time is naturally distributed more evenly, keeping more players happy (and fresh), preventing some of the injury risks due to overuse and exhaustion, and hedging against the deleterious effect of back-to-back's and 4-in5 night stretches. For Popovich's Spurs it is about easing the grind on his aging crew; for Stevens' Celtics it's about motivation, development, leveraging a potential disadvantage into an edge, and, yes, a necessity. Oh yeah, there is the fact that layups and open shots are higher percentage shots than hurried or hand-in-the-face fall-away jumpers.

Speaking on the minutes distribution, only one returning Celtic averaged more than 30 minutes per game. In addition to Bradley's 31.5, seven players averaged between 21 and 28. (Of the departed players Green and Rondo played 33.1 and 31.8 respectively, and three more averaged between 20 and 24.) Contrast that with a more typical NBA team where the starters get 35+ and the reserves get less than 15.

Brad Stevens already has a suitable MPG distribution for pushing the ball, and he and Ainge have already indicated a desire to do so. There have been several problems: like no basketball--as rebounding has been an ongoing issue and the lack of point guard push—Rondo coming back from surgery, Smart's severe ankle sprain that hindered him all season, Thomas added mid-season and hurt almost immediately; Turner who had no interest in rushing down court; and Pressey who was most willing and effective of all at pushing the ball—but played sparingly and is now gone. Hopefully this year will be much better. Smart whose ankle has healed and appeared more confident and aggressive in Summer League, Isaiah Thomas whose game lends itself to speed and attacking the bucket, and Rozier whose Summer League action showed every indication of driving the ball up court although his handle could use some tightening, all show signs of willingness and capability to make this happen (although Turner will still not be a fast break guard). New additions Amir and Lee will help the rebounding deficit and while neither will be racing up court, either could follow the break for the free throw area jumper as the drag on the secondary break.

Every season since Ainge arrived as GM, there has been a stated desire to push the ball, even after the aging New Big Three arrived. So far the execution (and commitment?) has been totally lacking. It just makes too much sense for that lack to continue. It is my fervent hope that rebounders immediately look up court for the outlet and the C's look to run, even after made shots or free throws.

Tomorrow I'll talk about a favorite issue and pastime of mine, watching the first two steps, which I consider a critical aspect of pushing the ball.  64 days to camp.



bob



.

Bob, it's driving me nuts. This guy is stealing some of my best stuff. Now it's the advantages of pushing the ball. Getting into the other team's defense before it's set is a MAJOR advantage. Even if the "pusher" finds himself playing 1 on 5 (a frequent complaint of Rondo), the defense usually over-compensates to collapse on him, leaving trailing Celtics to take inside-out passes for open outside shots.

I'll be interested in how much emphasis Lee puts on the first two steps in pushing the ball as distinct from the first pass.

Sam

IMO, the Celtics have been in nearly the same shape for at least three years now. To be clear, I think our overall talent pool is considerably deeper this summer than last, but the dynamic of 12 or so interchangeable guys is what I've seen since the last couple of years with KG and PP. Toward the end of their tenure in green, neither star was dominant or in shape to play 35 good minutes a game, and there were younger players who needed court time. The differences I see now are a coach who will experiment, and no veterans with egos to be easily bruised when bodies are benched. Without that sense of personal entitlement, team spirit should soar. Bravo, Danny! Hawk