Summer Quandaries 8: Timing Of The Roster Reduction

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2015/08/sq8-timing-of-roster-reduction.html




SQ8 Timing of the Roster Reduction

By Lee Lauderdale







As much as we of the blogosphere are all antsy about cutting the roster to 15, it seems to me that this development will, and needs to be, a training camp occurrence. For one thing, this might be a self-solving problem (rather like the Darwin Award winners previous presence in the gene pool). Say Jared Sullenger plods into camp at 285 or 290 pounds, or someone raises the hood on Perry Jones III and finds, not a low motor, but no motor at all. Problem solved! Better yet Hinke calls offering Nerlens Noel for two players, two Celtics' firsts, and two seconds (O.K. which two players wouldn't you be willing to send?) Or, God forbid, one of our players is diagnosed with a condition that prohibits them from continuing their career. See where I am heading with this? Eighty-eight days from now, this may be a moot discussion (admittedly an interesting moot discussion at this time of the off-season is pretty much golden!), but since senseless discourse is about all we have available at the beginning of August, let the (cow)chips fall where they may.

It makes absolutely no sense to talk about cutting a player when you can take a one-month free look, so lets put off that tirade until near the end of camp. Similarly I choose not to contemplate serious hypothetical medical conditions “just for fun” so that option is off limits. So let's for the moment limit ourselves to that several-for-fewer trade that actually helps (both) teams. The problem is that any attractive target is also pretty valuable to their current team. Things could change but, once again, that is much more likely during camp than during the next 60 days. O.K. there could be an inopportune motorcycle, skate board, or hang gliding incident (athletes doing stupid stuff in the off-season is not unheard of) that alters a teams outlook.

I'd say Dallas is about one mishap to a major player away from cashing out their chips and starting the inevitable overhaul, so who have they got that we might possible want? I think it would have to be Dirk going down to initiate a fire sale (after all losing DeAndre Jordan didn't push them over the edge), and the only possible target I see is Chandler Parsons. Chandler's pulling down $15M+ so it's going to take a wad of youth to match salaries. Nah I just don't see Parsons as a huge value given his salary and likely cost.

I've tried to conjure up a scenario in which Utah's Hayward, Tobias Harris of Orlando, or Harrison Barnes of the Warriors might be available, but I'm just not having any luck. Similarly Valanciunas of Toronto is beyond my imagination. All these players are too valuable to their current teams to be made available in any circumstance I can come up with. Now if Cousins chokes his new coach and threatens his new GM—but then is he so far off the deep end that there is any reasonable chance to rehab him?

Nah, I think we are in for a wait. Until a player removes himself, or until something shakes out in preseason, we'll just have to take heart in the fact that camp will be hyper-competitive. Then again, there is something good to be said for players having to earn their roster spots (and playing time) the old fashioned way—they'll have to earn it.

58 days until training camp



bob
MY NOTE:  I'm a little disappointed Lee did not continue down the same path he started out on.  If not Noel, why not another similar player?  I, myself, was able to conjure up 4-5 teams that had 3 legit centers on them.  Could not one of them be a target?  I like Parsons, but do we need an upgrade at SF so desperately we'd have to ship out some key players and a ton of youth for him?  Valanciunas?  Really, Lee?  Toronto traded Barf-nani because there wasn't room on the same roster for two 7' defensive fluffballs.

I agree we have to wait.  Aside from the obvious "what else can we do?"  I think that many of the teams who have players we want (think Sacto) will want to see how well those players integrate and play within their team's playbook and, in the case of the Kings, with their head coach.  If Koufos and WCS look great in pre-season Cousins might not get shook loose quite yet, but he might start to wobble and rattle a bit.  It might not be until December before management is willing to take a chance on a path, either sticking with their pat hand or making a move. Hayward, Harris and Barnes..oh my! We need two things more than anything: we need a quality point guard so we don't have to run our offense through a point forward and we need a defensive presence in the middle. Come up with a trade for one of them and I'm listening. Between Young, Turner, Jones, Crowder, Jerebko and even Kelly who can run the floor we have enough wings for a flock already.

58 days until training camp.  No way you could get me to commit to 58 days of columns in the middle of an NBA news desert.  No way.  I'd be repeating myself like Rain Man inside of a week.  I give Lee Lauderdale credit for stepping up and giving us something to talk about for the next two months. Anybody else willing to take his place?


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Waiting to see what Young, Jones, Dragic or whomever will do in preseason is the only way to evaluate these newer and younger guys who seem to be the ones who might/could/should get cut. But, the preseason will also determine just how much the returning guys have shown improvement from the end of last season.

Player development has been a huge part of the Coach Stevens plan since he has arrived. He and his staff have done a remarkable job of making each and every player better and better. Someone will counter that perhapsJames Young has not improved much, but even a great coach cannot shoot 100% or bat 1.000. You can see improvements from season to season with the guys who have been with him for two seasons and you can also see improvements during the season with all of his guys. If Doc Rivers had ever developed players (especially his younger guys) like Stevens has, he would be mentioned possibly as the best coach ever. Doc's players showed up every year, but never seemed to show marked improvements like have been clearly visible in Stevens tenure. I am not even sure that Red Auerbach developed players as well as Stevens and his staff.

Lets be honest and admit that Stevens and his staff were a very large part of the reason that the Cs picking up 15 wins last year to get the team to 40 victories. Yes, the players played hard, but the overall talent on the team did not really warrant a 15 game improvement from the year before. The were certainly much more fun to watch because the cast of characters fit well together, but it was the coaching that made such a difference.

This year's team has more talent (although not all completely proven yet) and should win more games as a result, but the continued improvement of each player will be very important again and will still originate with the coaching staff. Bob is right in that we still need a defensive center, but we will still be better this year than last if there are no major injuries.

I stand by my prediction of 50 wins.

bobc33 wrote:Bob H. could we ask Lee if he'd like to join our Forum?

Bob,

I have been trying to find a way to contact Lee, surreptitiously, for at least a year now for that express purpose. If I could find him, I'd ask him.

Never heard of a blogger that doesn't leave a way for you to contact them...


bob



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Being antsy about the roster size at this time of year is tantamount to lacking confidence in Danny's ability to count, and I've never been antsy about that in the 65 years I've been following the Celtics. On opening night, the roster is always down to the limit, and it will be no different this time.

What is more important is how Danny will achieve the roster-slimming, and there's reassurance on that score too. Short of resorting to actually making a prediction (ugh!), it seems very likely to me that the roster on opening night will be better than the roster is now. How much better is an appropriate question, but we got a pleasant surprise in the second half of last season and we got a vast surprise shortly before the championship season.

One thing I'm not sure about is the notion of just sitting back and waiting until all the teams have had an opportunity to kick the tires on their current rosters. I'd rather that Danny become super-diligent while the OTHER 29 teams sit back and wait. One of the keys to Danny's success has been opportunism. He has seen openings, and he's gone full-bore after them and has beaten out many other suitors in the process.

I can understand Lee's reasoning if he's talking about fans and suggesting that fans kick back and wait for Danny to make a move. Actually, I would subscribe to that same reasoning, but we'd have virtually no chatting in this chat room. So my best advice is to keep conjecturing all we want to, hope for Danny to jump on a major opportunity if it truly benefits the Celtics, and rest assured that (barring any negative health news) things will be better in October than they are now.

Go Danny!

Sam

most here know I would be all in on a Noel trade here.

I doubt it will happen now though with Embiids Sam Bowie like legs .