Every Little Bit Helps – Rim Protection From All Angles

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/29/every-little-bit-helps-rim-protection-from-all-angles/




Every Little Bit Helps – Rim Protection From All Angles
Posted on July 29, 2015 by Seth Partnow





Jan 16, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Dante Cunningham (44) drives the basket and collides with Philadelphia 76ers guard K.J. McDaniels (14) during the second half at Wells Fargo Center. The 76ers defeated the Pelicans 96-81. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports




Based on a question from Kelly Scaletta, I wanted to investigate how much value the shot blocking and/or rim protection1 of a particularly active wing player like K.J. McDaniels might provide to a team. In the past, I’ve looked into rim protection for players at all positions (footnote 1), but have generally only presented the results for power forwards and centers, both to avoid clutter and because I’m more confident in those results.  For players operating more on the perimeter, any such numbers are probably heavily influenced by if the player tends to get help from a secondary shot blocker or not.

Again, blocked shots aren’t the end-all, be-all but according to SportVU shot logs, 3.1% of shots where a PF or center was the primary defender were blocked by other (non-primary defender) players, but over 4.8% of similar shots where the primary defender was a PG or wing were blocked by help defenders. Still, some numbers for wings and points are better than none.

Before simply dumping a bunch of charts, a quick refresher about the methodology. The basic analysis is on two levels. First, since we know the league average FG% for uncontested shots at or near the rim as well as the average allowed by each player per SportVU, the difference between points allowed and what would be expected on those same shots with no defense is sort of a “raw” points saved. Of course, basing the analysis on what would have happened should the player simply have been removed from the court, leaving the defense playing with 4 guys(footnote 2) is unrealistic. So the second part of the examination is finding what a theoretical “average” defender would  have saved and comparing the two.

To ensure it is apples-to-apples, the comparison is to a positional average.  As position in the NBA is often defined by “who are you guarding?” I think this captures the different expectations and rolls to a degree, as one big man provides as much rim protection on average as all three perimeter players combined per minute. (footnote 3)

I also modified the formulas slightly because I wasn’t happy with how the model was dealing with players slightly above or slightly below average in terms of percentages allowed, as I think I was overweighting number of contests at the the expense of percentage allowed.4 So if you’ve been following this stat for a while, you might notice some slight adjustments in the ordering of players as well as a slightly larger spread from best to worst among big men.

And as a final reminder, rim protection is only a portion of defense. My estimate, backed up by studies from Kevin Hetrick and Justin Willard suggests rim protection is about 40% of the defensive contribution for a big man, probably substantially less for wings and points, especially considering, as the charts below show, the range between best and worst wings and point guards is substantially smaller than that found between the most and least effective big men.

That said, a player like McDaniels could indeed provide some extra value with his ability to defend the rim from unusual spots. Certainly it’s no surprise that top wing defenders like Danny Green and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist also show up well in terms of this additional value. Again, all numbers are measured against a hypothetical average defender from the relevant position, point, wing or big.



Bigs:


Estimated Rim Protection Value 2014/15
Points saved vs. NBA average big, 2014/15 NBA Regular Season

Player Team MPG Contest % Rim FG% Allowed Points Saved/GM Points Saved/36
Andrew Bogut GSW 23.5 61.0% 41.4% 2.08 3.19
Hassan Whiteside MIA 24.2 59.7% 46.5% 1.57 2.33
Cole Aldrich NYK 16.1 59.4% 51.4% 0.67 1.50
Rudy Gobert UTA 26.3 57.2% 40.4% 2.43 3.32
John Henson MIL 18.3 55.6% 46.8% 1.32 2.61
Tyler Zeller BOS 21.1 55.4% 51.8% 0.63 1.08
Chris Kaman POR 18.9 54.4% 52.9% 0.23 0.44
Miles Plumlee TOTAL 16.4 54.0% 51.0% 0.71 1.56
Gorgui Dieng MIN 30.3 54.0% 55.8% -0.05 -0.06
Roy Hibbert IND 25.3 53.9% 42.6% 1.84 2.62
Alex Len PHX 22.0 53.8% 49.2% 1.13 1.84
Tyson Chandler DAL 30.5 53.7% 50.9% 0.69 0.82
Chris Andersen MIA 18.7 53.2% 50.4% 0.42 0.80
Ian Mahinmi IND 18.8 52.4% 45.5% 0.71 1.36
Kevin Seraphin WAS 15.6 52.4% 47.6% 0.41 0.94
Timofey Mozgov TOTAL 25.3 51.4% 47.5% 0.85 1.20
Kyle O'Quinn ORL 16.2 51.2% 48.6% 0.22 0.49
Jusuf Nurkic DEN 17.8 50.9% 48.5% 0.52 1.06
Robin Lopez POR 27.8 50.3% 48.0% 1.12 1.45
Omer Asik NOP 26.1 50.0% 51.1% 0.53 0.73
Tim Duncan SAS 29.0 49.7% 46.9% 1.21 1.50
Jonas Valanciunas TOR 26.2 49.7% 46.5% 1.10 1.51
Andre Drummond DET 30.5 49.2% 48.0% 0.78 0.92
Pau Gasol CHI 34.3 48.4% 48.0% 1.14 1.20
Brook Lopez BKN 29.2 48.3% 49.7% 0.48 0.60
Marreese Speights GSW 15.9 48.1% 49.3% 0.39 0.89
Justin Hamilton TOTAL 17.4 47.9% 53.4% 0.20 0.41
Amar'e Stoudemire TOTAL 21.3 47.9% 52.4% -0.30 -0.50
Aron Baynes SAS 16.0 47.9% 48.4% 0.27 0.60
Kosta Koufos MEM 16.6 47.7% 46.9% 0.15 0.33
Nerlens Noel PHI 30.8 47.5% 45.4% 1.51 1.77
Marcin Gortat WAS 29.9 47.3% 48.6% 0.21 0.26
Mason Plumlee BKN 21.3 46.7% 55.5% -0.17 -0.29
Lou Amundson TOTAL 17.7 46.0% 52.2% 0.08 0.17
Bismack Biyombo CHA 19.4 45.9% 49.1% -0.22 -0.41
DeMarcus Cousins SAC 33.9 45.3% 47.0% 0.45 0.48
Al Jefferson CHA 30.7 45.3% 54.7% -1.41 -1.65
DeAndre Jordan LAC 34.4 44.6% 48.5% 0.17 0.18
David Lee GSW 18.5 44.4% 49.1% -0.02 -0.03
Zaza Pachulia MIL 23.4 43.4% 52.3% -0.42 -0.65
Paul Millsap ATL 32.6 42.9% 55.0% -0.78 -0.86
Robert Sacre LAL 16.9 42.6% 54.0% -0.36 -0.77
Tiago Splitter SAS 19.8 42.0% 50.0% -0.09 -0.16
Dwight Howard HOU 29.8 42.0% 45.7% 0.27 0.32
Brandan Wright TOTAL 19.4 41.9% 49.5% 0.06 0.12
Marc Gasol MEM 33.2 41.7% 49.4% -0.54 -0.59
Nikola Vucevic ORL 34.1 41.3% 53.7% -1.25 -1.32
Tristan Thompson CLE 26.8 41.1% 52.2% -0.56 -0.76
Jordan Hill LAL 26.8 41.0% 55.4% -0.57 -0.77
Derrick Favors UTA 30.8 40.9% 43.8% 0.40 0.47
Channing Frye ORL 24.9 40.9% 51.9% -0.71 -1.03
Al Horford ATL 30.4 40.4% 49.8% -0.27 -0.32
Serge Ibaka OKC 33.1 40.3% 40.8% 1.76 1.91
Spencer Hawes LAC 17.5 40.2% 50.0% -0.61 -1.26
Meyers Leonard POR 15.4 39.8% 42.3% 0.25 0.59
Lavoy Allen IND 16.9 39.6% 48.5% -0.46 -0.97
Steven Adams OKC 25.2 39.2% 48.8% 0.14 0.20
Pero Antic ATL 16.4 38.7% 48.9% -0.36 -0.80
Kendrick Perkins TOTAL 16.9 38.7% 46.6% 0.14 0.29
Kelly Olynyk BOS 22.2 38.3% 53.5% -0.78 -1.27
Amir Johnson TOR 26.4 38.2% 52.3% -0.32 -0.44
Nikola Pekovic MIN 26.2 38.0% 56.5% -1.09 -1.49
Josh Smith TOTAL 27.7 38.0% 46.7% 0.17 0.22
Terrence Jones HOU 27.0 37.4% 45.9% 0.64 0.85
Greg Monroe DET 31.1 37.2% 55.1% -1.06 -1.23
Tarik Black TOTAL 19.0 36.7% 55.3% -0.93 -1.76
Reggie Evans SAC 16.3 36.5% 60.1% -1.48 -3.26
Jason Thompson SAC 24.5 36.3% 51.6% -0.93 -1.37
JJ Hickson DEN 19.4 36.1% 52.2% -0.51 -0.95
Donatas Motiejunas HOU 28.7 36.0% 48.9% -0.34 -0.42
Kevin Love CLE 33.7 35.9% 52.6% -1.18 -1.26
Nick Collison OKC 16.7 35.2% 51.7% -0.86 -1.86
Ed Davis LAL 23.3 34.6% 53.9% -0.82 -1.27
Dirk Nowitzki DAL 29.6 34.6% 52.4% -1.62 -1.97
Joakim Noah CHI 30.5 34.4% 51.7% -1.11 -1.31
Chris Bosh MIA 35.4 34.0% 55.3% -1.97 -2.00
Darrell Arthur DEN 17.1 33.3% 50.5% -0.68 -1.43
Draymond Green GSW 31.6 33.3% 46.9% -0.81 -0.92
Kevin Garnett TOTAL 20.3 33.3% 51.9% -0.84 -1.49
Jared Sullinger BOS 27.0 33.3% 52.8% -0.90 -1.20
Zach Randolph MEM 32.4 32.6% 53.0% -1.90 -2.11
Henry Sims PHI 19.2 32.5% 49.7% -0.48 -0.90
Cody Zeller CHA 24.0 32.0% 49.0% -1.11 -1.67
Jonas Jerebko TOTAL 16.4 31.4% 51.0% -1.03 -2.25
Shawne Williams TOTAL 17.1 31.3% 50.0% -0.61 -1.28
Taj Gibson CHI 27.3 31.1% 45.5% -0.68 -0.90
Ersan Ilyasova MIL 22.9 31.0% 52.2% -0.96 -1.52
Mirza Teletovic BKN 22.4 30.9% 52.6% -1.05 -1.68
Enes Kanter TOTAL 28.3 30.8% 56.9% -1.59 -2.02
Jason Smith NYK 21.9 30.1% 49.7% -0.85 -1.40
Patrick Patterson TOR 26.6 29.9% 50.3% -0.90 -1.22
Boris Diaw SAS 24.5 29.5% 56.9% -1.59 -2.33
Nene WAS 25.2 29.4% 51.7% -1.44 -2.06
Anthony Davis NOP 36.2 29.0% 48.6% -0.96 -0.95
Nikola Mirotic CHI 20.0 28.9% 55.2% -1.36 -2.45
Kris Humphries WAS 21.0 28.7% 53.5% -1.34 -2.30
Enes Kanter UTA 26.9 28.6% 57.3% -1.53 -2.04
LaMarcus Aldridge POR 35.4 28.2% 45.1% -0.86 -0.88
Udonis Haslem MIA 16.1 27.4% 54.7% -1.02 -2.29
Kenneth Faried DEN 27.9 26.7% 54.5% -1.71 -2.20
Luc Mbah a Moute PHI 28.5 26.6% 51.7% -1.28 -1.62
Drew Gooden WAS 17.0 26.6% 55.4% -1.39 -2.94
Anthony Bennett MIN 15.8 26.3% 55.9% -0.93 -2.12
Ryan Anderson NOP 27.5 25.5% 55.4% -1.28 -1.67
Jared Dudley MIL 23.8 25.3% 50.7% -1.16 -1.75
Blake Griffin LAC 35.2 24.9% 50.7% -2.22 -2.27
Marvin Williams CHA 26.1 24.5% 52.0% -1.94 -2.67
Carlos Boozer LAL 23.9 24.4% 52.4% -1.31 -1.98
Markieff Morris PHX 31.5 24.3% 52.4% -1.67 -1.91
Quincy Acy NYK 19.1 24.1% 45.5% -0.87 -1.64
Carl Landry SAC 17.0 24.0% 55.1% -1.25 -2.65
Anthony Tolliver TOTAL 18.9 23.7% 53.7% -1.23 -2.33
Luis Scola IND 20.4 23.5% 48.0% -1.30 -2.29
David West IND 28.7 23.1% 52.9% -2.38 -2.98
Aaron Gordon ORL 17.0 22.8% 48.1% -0.98 -2.09
James Johnson TOR 19.6 22.0% 51.4% -1.26 -2.32
Thaddeus Young TOTAL 32.1 21.4% 60.1% -2.63 -2.94
Trevor Booker UTA 19.8 19.8% 48.9% -1.60 -2.91
Brandon Bass BOS 23.5 19.0% 54.9% -1.80 -2.76
Dante Cunningham NOP 25.1 17.6% 51.5% -1.58 -2.27

Source: Fancy Stats - Seth Partnow Get the data




Wings:


Estimated Rim Protection Value 2014/15 (Wings)
Points saved vs. NBA average for SG/SF in same minutes and shots faced, 2014/15 NBA Regular Season

Player Team MPG Contest % Rim FG% Allowed Points Saved/GM Points Saved/36
Jared Dudley MIL 23.8 25.3% 50.7% 1.09 1.65
KJ McDaniels TOTAL 21.9 21.2% 45.3% 1.00 1.65
Jerami Grant PHI 21.2 19.9% 42.5% 0.90 1.53
Danny Green SAS 28.5 18.3% 47.9% 0.89 1.13
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist CHA 28.9 18.8% 48.1% 0.87 1.08
Robert Covington PHI 27.9 20.0% 51.6% 0.82 1.06
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.3 21.7% 53.2% 0.80 0.92
Kyle Singler TOTAL 21.8 21.0% 50.4% 0.62 1.02
JaKarr Sampson PHI 15.2 19.6% 45.3% 0.61 1.45
Harrison Barnes GSW 28.4 19.4% 53.2% 0.58 0.73
Dante Cunningham NOP 25.1 17.6% 51.5% 0.56 0.81
Richard Jefferson DAL 16.9 18.6% 50.0% 0.53 1.13
Kyle Korver ATL 32.2 18.4% 54.4% 0.49 0.55
Tayshaun Prince TOTAL 24.1 17.0% 50.3% 0.49 0.74
Tobias Harris ORL 34.8 17.9% 54.0% 0.49 0.5
Thabo Sefolosha ATL 18.6 15.6% 44.9% 0.42 0.81
Vince Carter MEM 16.5 15.5% 46.4% 0.38 0.83
Jeff Green TOTAL 31.4 15.3% 51.4% 0.37 0.42
Kawhi Leonard SAS 31.8 14.1% 48.9% 0.37 0.42
James Ennis MIA 17.0 17.0% 53.1% 0.35 0.74
PJ Tucker PHX 30.6 16.0% 51.6% 0.35 0.41
Evan Turner BOS 27.5 18.8% 55.4% 0.32 0.42
Cleanthony Early NYK 16.7 18.1% 55.4% 0.29 0.62
Andre Roberson OKC 19.2 14.9% 50.8% 0.27 0.51
Nicolas Batum POR 33.5 11.8% 49.7% 0.25 0.27
Wilson Chandler DEN 31.7 16.0% 56.9% 0.25 0.29
James Harden HOU 36.8 13.9% 51.4% 0.22 0.21
Tony Allen MEM 26.1 11.6% 50.5% 0.22 0.30
Willie Green ORL 18.3 10.2% 43.1% 0.22 0.44
Shawn Marion CLE 19.3 13.9% 48.9% 0.21 0.4
Mike Dunleavy CHI 29.1 12.3% 52.4% 0.18 0.22
Klay Thompson GSW 32.0 9.8% 44.9% 0.17 0.19
Tim Hardaway Jr. NYK 24.0 12.5% 48.4% 0.16 0.25
Chris Copeland IND 16.5 15.2% 55.4% 0.14 0.32
Jae Crowder TOTAL 20.1 17.6% 56.6% 0.14 0.26
Elijah Millsap UTA 19.5 16.1% 52.3% 0.13 0.25
Paul Pierce WAS 26.2 13.3% 51.4% 0.13 0.18
Tony Snell CHI 19.5 12.5% 49.0% 0.13 0.25
CJ Miles IND 26.2 10.3% 50.5% 0.11 0.15
DeMarre Carroll ATL 31.1 17.4% 57.5% 0.10 0.11
Maurice Harkless ORL 15.0 22.5% 57.8% 0.10 0.25
Luol Deng MIA 33.6 17.3% 58.6% 0.09 0.1
Tyler Johnson MIA 18.9 13.6% 53.2% 0.09 0.17
Kent Bazemore ATL 17.6 13.6% 49.6% 0.08 0.17
TJ Warren PHX 15.4 11.7% 54.3% 0.07 0.15
Will Barton TOTAL 17.0 11.5% 51.4% 0.07 0.14
Chandler Parsons DAL 33.1 11.8% 54.0% 0.05 0.06
CJ McCollum POR 15.7 11.1% 55.7% 0.04 0.09
Andrew Wiggins MIN 36.2 14.0% 57.3% 0.03 0.03
Nik Stauskas SAC 15.4 11.0% 50.0% 0.03 0.08
PJ Hairston CHA 15.3 12.9% 56.0% 0.02 0.04
Victor Oladipo ORL 35.7 12.5% 54.7% 0.02 0.02
Kirk Hinrich CHI 24.3 10.4% 50.0% 0.01 0.02
Matt Barnes LAC 29.9 12.6% 54.7% 0.01 0.01
Gerald Henderson CHA 29.0 8.8% 49.0% 0.00 0
Khris Middleton MIL 30.0 11.1% 53.9% -0.02 -0.02
Marcus Thornton TOTAL 15.0 7.4% 42.9% -0.03 -0.07
Omri Casspi SAC 21.1 17.3% 62.3% -0.03 -0.05
Shabazz Muhammad MIN 23.0 11.1% 54.0% -0.03 -0.05
JJ Redick LAC 30.9 10.9% 50.7% -0.04 -0.05
Quincy Pondexter TOTAL 24.0 11.0% 50.8% -0.04 -0.06
Tyreke Evans NOP 34.1 13.4% 58.3% -0.04 -0.05
Ben McLemore SAC 32.5 12.0% 55.9% -0.05 -0.05
Terrence Ross TOR 25.5 9.5% 48.8% -0.06 -0.08
Caron Butler DET 20.9 14.0% 61.4% -0.07 -0.13
Manu Ginobili SAS 22.7 8.9% 54.3% -0.09 -0.15
Monta Ellis DAL 33.7 8.3% 49.3% -0.10 -0.11
O.J. Mayo MIL 23.8 8.9% 53.6% -0.10 -0.15
Otto Porter WAS 19.3 14.3% 58.3% -0.10 -0.18
DeMar DeRozan TOR 35.0 9.0% 53.0% -0.13 -0.13
Markel Brown BKN 16.7 7.7% 54.1% -0.13 -0.28
Solomon Hill IND 29.0 11.3% 56.2% -0.13 -0.16
LeBron James CLE 36.1 9.9% 49.3% -0.14 -0.14
Rudy Gay SAC 35.4 12.9% 55.6% -0.14 -0.14
Damjan Rudez IND 15.4 7.1% 47.7% -0.15 -0.35
Bradley Beal WAS 33.4 10.8% 56.8% -0.17 -0.18
Gerald Green PHX 19.6 9.0% 53.8% -0.17 -0.31
Nick Young LAL 23.9 6.4% 50.0% -0.17 -0.26
Rasual Butler WAS 20.1 12.5% 59.1% -0.17 -0.30
Shelvin Mack ATL 15.1 9.0% 56.4% -0.18 -0.42
Anthony Morrow OKC 24.4 10.1% 55.5% -0.20 -0.29
Iman Shumpert TOTAL 24.9 11.7% 54.6% -0.20 -0.29
Andre Iguodala GSW 26.9 10.3% 54.2% -0.21 -0.28
Kobe Bryant LAL 34.6 9.9% 55.4% -0.21 -0.22
Sergey Karasev BKN 16.8 7.8% 48.4% -0.21 -0.46
Austin Rivers TOTAL 20.6 8.3% 52.9% -0.22 -0.38
Chase Budinger MIN 19.4 16.4% 64.9% -0.22 -0.4
Rodney Stuckey IND 26.4 8.8% 53.8% -0.22 -0.31
Wesley Johnson LAL 29.6 9.8% 54.9% -0.22 -0.26
Marco Belinelli SAS 22.4 10.9% 57.3% -0.25 -0.4
Gary Neal TOTAL 22.1 9.6% 61.9% -0.26 -0.42
Devin Harris DAL 22.1 9.2% 53.7% -0.27 -0.45
Lance Thomas TOTAL 24.1 7.7% 50.0% -0.27 -0.4
Randy Foye DEN 21.8 9.2% 55.7% -0.27 -0.45
Alan Anderson BKN 23.6 10.3% 59.3% -0.29 -0.44
Joe Ingles UTA 21.2 7.3% 55.6% -0.29 -0.5
Bojan Bogdanovic BKN 23.8 9.7% 58.0% -0.32 -0.48
Rodney Hood UTA 21.3 12.2% 59.7% -0.32 -0.55
Dion Waiters TOTAL 27.5 9.7% 56.7% -0.33 -0.44
Alexey Shved TOTAL 18.3 9.1% 60.4% -0.34 -0.67
Dwyane Wade MIA 31.8 10.6% 61.2% -0.37 -0.42
J.R. Smith TOTAL 29.7 7.3% 54.9% -0.37 -0.45
Corey Brewer TOTAL 26.2 11.2% 59.1% -0.39 -0.54
Hollis Thompson PHI 25.0 10.3% 60.0% -0.39 -0.55
Kevin Martin MIN 33.7 6.4% 51.9% -0.39 -0.42
Carmelo Anthony NYK 35.9 10.2% 59.5% -0.41 -0.41
Jimmy Butler CHI 38.7 10.1% 56.0% -0.41 -0.38
Lance Stephenson CHA 25.8 9.0% 63.6% -0.42 -0.59
Joe Johnson BKN 35.0 9.0% 60.7% -0.44 -0.45
Trevor Ariza HOU 35.8 9.7% 56.0% -0.44 -0.44
Evan Fournier ORL 28.7 10.0% 61.7% -0.46 -0.57
Wayne Ellington LAL 25.8 5.6% 57.4% -0.46 -0.64
Gordon Hayward UTA 34.4 8.5% 60.6% -0.49 -0.51
Arron Afflalo TOTAL 32.1 5.1% 54.5% -0.51 -0.57
Avery Bradley BOS 31.5 7.8% 56.9% -0.53 -0.61
Courtney Lee MEM 30.6 6.9% 58.4% -0.53 -0.62
Wesley Matthews POR 33.8 6.8% 56.0% -0.55 -0.59
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DET 31.6 8.3% 64.4% -0.58 -0.67
Jodie Meeks DET 24.4 5.8% 63.0% -0.62 -0.91
Jamal Crawford LAC 26.7 6.0% 69.1% -0.67 -0.9
Lou Williams TOR 25.2 6.3% 67.5% -0.69 -0.98
Jose Calderon NYK 30.0 5.3% 62.8% -0.83 -1

Source: Fancy Stats - Seth Partnow Get the data




Point Guards:


Estimated Rim Protection Value 2014/15 (Point Guards)
Points saved vs. NBA average for PGs in same minutes and shots faced, 2014/15 NBA Regular Season

Player Team MPG Contest % Rim FG% Allowed Points Saved/GM Points Saved/36
Jeremy Lin LAL 25.8 14.1% 44.8% 0.78 1.08
Kemba Walker CHA 34.2 14.4% 53.4% 0.59 0.62
George Hill IND 29.4 12.8% 53.6% 0.56 0.68
Kyle Lowry TOR 34.5 11.3% 50.3% 0.49 0.51
Michael Carter-Williams TOTAL 32.5 11.3% 50.0% 0.46 0.51
CJ Watson IND 24.9 8.1% 33.9% 0.45 0.65
Darren Collison SAC 34.8 8.6% 47.1% 0.45 0.46
Reggie Jackson TOTAL 29.5 12.4% 52.5% 0.42 0.52
Jrue Holiday NOP 32.6 9.6% 49.4% 0.39 0.43
Marcus Smart BOS 27.0 11.3% 47.9% 0.38 0.51
Cory Joseph SAS 18.3 13.2% 53.7% 0.37 0.73
Jordan Clarkson LAL 25.1 12.6% 55.5% 0.27 0.38
Eric Bledsoe PHX 34.6 10.7% 53.8% 0.24 0.25
Goran Dragic TOTAL 33.9 9.5% 52.2% 0.21 0.22
Shaun Livingston GSW 18.9 11.7% 54.9% 0.19 0.37
Jerryd Bayless MIL 22.2 10.7% 57.1% 0.18 0.30
Matthew Dellavedova CLE 20.7 16.5% 59.3% 0.16 0.29
Elfrid Payton ORL 30.3 12.8% 57.9% 0.15 0.17
Steve Blake POR 18.9 9.0% 47.5% 0.14 0.27
Beno Udrih MEM 18.9 10.6% 58.6% 0.12 0.23
Pablo Prigioni TOTAL 18.1 10.4% 52.1% 0.11 0.21
Donald Sloan IND 20.8 8.1% 50.0% 0.10 0.16
Derrick Rose CHI 30.0 8.5% 50.6% 0.08 0.1
Jose Juan Barea DAL 17.7 7.9% 55.2% 0.07 0.15
Stephen Curry GSW 32.7 7.3% 46.0% 0.07 0.08
Greivis Vasquez TOR 24.3 8.7% 55.0% 0.06 0.09
John Wall WAS 35.9 7.1% 52.3% 0.06 0.06
Mo Williams TOTAL 29.4 7.2% 53.8% 0.06 0.07
Patty Mills SAS 15.7 5.2% 39.1% 0.04 0.08
Andre Miller TOTAL 15.5 7.1% 53.8% 0.03 0.06
Chris Paul LAC 34.9 7.5% 52.9% 0.00 0
Russell Westbrook OKC 34.3 7.3% 56.8% -0.01 -0.01
Langston Galloway NYK 32.5 11.1% 61.0% -0.03 -0.03
Mike Conley MEM 31.8 9.7% 57.9% -0.03 -0.03
Shane Larkin NYK 24.7 10.1% 55.7% -0.04 -0.06
Kyrie Irving CLE 36.3 8.7% 56.7% -0.07 -0.07
Aaron Brooks CHI 22.9 7.0% 57.1% -0.08 -0.12
Jarrett Jack BKN 28.1 5.6% 52.5% -0.08 -0.1
Norris Cole TOTAL 24.3 5.4% 49.1% -0.08 -0.13
Brian Roberts CHA 18.5 6.9% 55.1% -0.09 -0.17
Isaiah Thomas TOTAL 25.8 5.1% 55.6% -0.12 -0.16
Ish Smith TOTAL 15.1 12.0% 62.7% -0.12 -0.28
Mario Chalmers MIA 29.7 8.7% 57.4% -0.12 -0.14
Rajon Rondo TOTAL 29.7 8.2% 58.1% -0.15 -0.18
Deron Williams BKN 31.1 8.1% 58.6% -0.16 -0.19
Patrick Beverley HOU 30.9 10.1% 60.2% -0.17 -0.2
Ty Lawson DEN 35.6 5.8% 57.4% -0.18 -0.18
Brandon Knight TOTAL 32.3 7.4% 59.1% -0.21 -0.23
Dante Exum UTA 22.1 6.3% 63.6% -0.23 -0.37
Jason Terry HOU 21.3 5.9% 55.6% -0.23 -0.39
Shabazz Napier MIA 19.9 8.1% 68.1% -0.23 -0.42
Ronnie Price LAL 22.9 5.8% 65.7% -0.26 -0.4
Tony Wroten PHI 29.8 8.8% 64.0% -0.26 -0.32
Jameer Nelson TOTAL 22.3 7.6% 66.7% -0.27 -0.44
Damian Lillard POR 35.7 6.6% 63.3% -0.28 -0.28
Trey Burke UTA 30.1 5.7% 55.3% -0.28 -0.34
Dennis Schroder ATL 19.8 5.2% 59.2% -0.29 -0.53
Isaiah Canaan TOTAL 19.8 7.4% 72.7% -0.30 -0.55
Ramon Sessions TOTAL 18.5 6.3% 68.1% -0.32 -0.62
Eric Gordon NOP 33.1 6.1% 58.5% -0.33 -0.36
Jeff Teague ATL 30.3 3.7% 57.4% -0.36 -0.43
Ray McCallum SAC 21.0 8.3% 70.1% -0.37 -0.63
Zach LaVine MIN 24.6 8.6% 67.9% -0.40 -0.58
Tony Parker SAS 28.7 7.1% 68.2% -0.43 -0.54
Brandon Jennings DET 28.6 5.5% 64.3% -0.47 -0.60
D.J. Augustin TOTAL 23.9 5.4% 69.6% -0.47 -0.71

Source: Fancy Stats - Seth Partnow Get the data


(1) Not at all the same thing in many cases. ↩
(2) Insert Kings jokes here. ↩
(3) There is also a slight adjustment involved to account for players playing at a higher or lower pace and for teams allowing more or fewer close shots. Essentially I wanted to avoid over-crediting players who happened to contest a lot of shots because their teams were playing poor enough defense to allow defenders many more “opportunities” to defend the rim. ↩
(4) This modification proved to be a reminder of just how bad my R skills were when I first started, as I had to rewrite the whole thing more or less from scratch. And I’m now terrified to go back through the code of some of my other early metrics to see how ugly it really is.



bob



.

Excuse me.  I feel a sneeze coming on.  Shakeadoodle!!!  Wow, that was a two-Kleenex job.

I'm not even going to comment on the methodology on this one.  Except to say that, the greater the multiplicity of factors in any statistical calculation, the greater the possibility that—somewhere in all the gibberish material lies some judgment or lack of context or assumption or leap of faith that represents an attempt to clarify something but really ends up muddying the waters.

I can't halp but wonder whether the lack of stating any definitive inclusion based on these stats is due to the author's ongoing attempts to reach one.

Sam

didn't I try something like this earlier this off-season?

I had to give up as all the stats became , as Sam said gibberish.

Hey kdp, is that by any chance Greg Kite in your avatar?

Sam

why yes it is........I picked his picture because I think I'm kinda like the Greg Kite here....I try hard, just don't have as much talent as those around me.

kdp,

Actually, I was thinking that, if you put a 10-gallon hat on the guy in the picture, he would look a lot like a cowboy movie star. So you've got that going for you.

Sam