Summer Quandaries 15: Contract Extensions?

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2015/08/sq15-contract-extensions.html




SQ15 Contract Extensions?

By Lee Lauderdale








There are three players currently on the roster who are coming in to their final year of their rookie contract. Each is, I believe, eligible for extension. The questions are whether they merit an extension, and if so, for how much (no trivial aspect as we enter the uncharted waters of the new TV contract financial landscape)? The Celtics approach has to also be sensitive to the financial flexibility Danny Ainge has been so careful to build in to the off-season signings of Jonas Jerebko and Amir Johnson, where each has a second year which is NOT guaranteed. So who do you extend, why, and for how much?

I wrote on Tyler Zeller yesterday (and a reader's comment pushed my little grey cells into contemplating the topic of today's discussion—Thanks!) and he is one of the potential extendees. His career was, let's say stalled, in Cleveland before he was set free to develop in Boston. He has taken full advantage of that second chance. So much so that if he improves as much again in the current season as he did last year, I believe that he will have climbed into the ranks of legitimate starting NBA centers. For a team that has lacked even an adequate starting center since Kendrick Perkins went down in the NBA finals in 2010 (and no I don't count Garnett playing out of position, nor a few weeks of Shaq), the prospect of a player adequately manning the middle should be an exciting prospect. Even if he seems not to have the potential to become an above average center, much less a star, an average center is an improvement that is leaps and bounds over the past five years. That's the why, which I think also covers the whether; now for the how much. I think that Tyler relishes his Celtics experience, and appreciates both his escape from Cleveland and his being appreciated in Boston (at least by the coaches, players, and some of the fans!?). This is a good match and I think Danny, Brad Stevens, and Zeller all value this association. I believe Tyler will be offered and extension, probably one near the MLE, and that he will be inclined to take it, securing his position in a “good fit,” on an improving team, and where he can grow into a good center on a contending team.

A bit more on the fit, as it is critical for him as well as the others we will discuss. Tyler Zeller, while not powerful (an area in which he has shown, and needs to continue his, improvement), runs like the wind which is a perfect fit for a team trying to implement the running game and a motion offense. He executes his end of the pick-and-roll/pop well; moving strongly to the basket often scoring even when cut off, by employing his odd but quite effective and efficient “flip” shot, on the roll, and equally effective (as he developed confidence in the second half of the season) popping for the 15-18 foot jumper (well actually more of a tippie-toes as many bigs do). He showed significant tenacity around the basket even though over-matched by stronger opponents (back to that continuing improvement in body strength). He also demonstrated both an ability and a willingness to pass, whether to cutters, other bigs inside, or out to the long range bombers. Every aspect listed is a integral cog of Brad Stevens offensive schemes, hence the fit on the floor. As for his fit for the organization, moving from a situation where he was a little-regarded afterthought to becoming an important part of an emerging team is hard to undersell. Kind of the reversal of Yogi Berra's old line about “I wouldn't belong to a club that would have me as a member.” Only in this case it is more of a I want to be in a place where I'm wanted. Yeah, my vote is a decided yes.

Sullinger has been a lightening rod for the bloggers this summer, and for good cause. While many are debating whether he should even be kept on the team, Danny Ainge has to be also weighing whether or not to try and extend his contract. The same factors that have brought down the wrath of fan-atics, are also in play in Ainge's decision making process. He's out of shape (as he has been the entire time he has been with the Celtics) which likely contributed to the constant string of injuries and stifled any continued growth. He has consistently missed goals the team has set for conditioning (and according to Danny, the only one), and during the season actually gained weight (almost unheard of in the NBA). Each summer he has talked a good “improved conditioning” game without any real results (insert talking the talk, walking the walk comment here). His chronic back weakness which constantly threatens his career, is exacerbated by excess weight, as is his lack of foot speed or even being to make it up and down the court without gasping for air. Much has been made of his junk-in-the-trunk clearing space around the basket; well the same clearing can be accomplished with lower body strength rather than bulk, and without the junk, perhaps he can rise up into the “clear blue sky” to which Tommy Heinsohn often refers, rather than being smothered by the defenders arms that stretch above him.

While all these appear to be negatives that bring into question whether he should be retained at all, much less extended, Sully is also the most skilled big (although he is really not that tall, another of Danny's “undersized” [under-heighted] power forwards for whose acquisitions he has become [in]famous) in the Celtics fold. Great hands, soft touch, good passer, smooth jumper out to 18', deft touch around the basket, excellent upper body strength—these are all superb qualities. Unfortunately they are, thus far, trapped in a Pillsbury dough-boy body which prevents Jared from becoming all that he can be. If, and that's a BIG IF (on several levels), he comes into camp in shape and demonstrates that he can exercise the advantages of greater mobility and endurance rather than relying on a swing-the-junk game, then the Celtics might have a dangerous weapon long term. If the lean arrival, followed by leveraging his new assets in training camp, come to pass then Danny has a decision to make as the season approaches. Is the transformation real, or just a contract year anomaly? Can Sullinger maintain (the necessary eating habits, the devotion to conditioning)? Let's be real here, these are lifestyle changes, that most are unable to sustain, and that will have to be permanent in order to maximize his career. Will Sully still be able to lay off the jelly doughnuts, nighttime pizza, and all you can eat buffets once he gets a fat (oooh, there went another pun) new contract of guaranteed money.

This is a moot discussion if Sullinger shows up at camp weighing 280 pounds, or doesn't show the work ethic and lifestyle changes throughout October. (It might also make the perceived roster bloat a non-issue.) If all looks promising going into that last week in October, and there is a willingness to bargain on Jared's part, then there are a few things that Danny can do to both protect the team and perhaps help Sully at the same time. Making a significant portion of Sullinger's salary contingent upon passing weekly weight goals would both protect the money hit and give Jared frequent reinforcement to stay on track (since muscle weighs more than fat, making it a BMI goal might encourage better maintenance habits). I'm not sure if this is possible, but spreading Sully's salary over 12 months and continuing the weekly tests through the off-season might help also (I'm think in terms of regular AA meetings here). Also limiting the length of that second contract along with making the last year a team option would allow Ainge to hedge the Celtics' bets. I also think that if Sullinger is honest with himself (and doesn't have his agent's head too far up his posterior), Jared might not push the dollar amount of an extension too high (some reasonably obtainable performance goals would also put the butter on the correct side of the bread [dang another pun almost snuck by me]). Admittedly this is not something for which professional athletes are known—those Larry Bird's unwilling to take money they didn't feel like they earned, are so rare as to almost make Larry unique. My vote is a conditional, make that multi-conditional yes.

The third player eligible for extension is Perry Jones III. At this point (unable to find anyone to take PJ3 for free, Oklahoma had to actually pay the Celtics to take him off their hands [and roster]), Jones has an uphill battle to even make the roster, much less be signed to an extension. However, if he plays his way on to the roster (rather than  some other move opening up the spot for him to “stay around”), then I think Ainge would be foolish not to try and work out an extension. A cheap one (say around the qualifying offer of $3M and change [O.K. the kind of “change” that exceeds any raise most of us ever received]) with non-guaranteed year(s) at the end and/or team and player options that give both sides a sense of control. My logic is something like this, if he plays his way onto the team, then he is probably worth keeping on a team-friendly contract. I've never seen him play, either in college or the NBA, but on paper he certainly jumps off the sheet. One has to have serious concerns—OKC's disposal, that motor thing, his knee(s), and for me the most critical is his BBIQ and chemistry which are key facets of what is emerging in Boston. Still, I don't think he will have to fight any negative preconceptions with Brad Stevens. With Brad it will be, “You arrive with a blank slate and you have 27 days to play your way on, or off, the team. Now show me.” My read, a highly conditional maybe.

Only 51 days 'til camp. Sorry for the tardiness of this posting. Life happens and fortunately the web doesn't have many deadlines.




bob



.

None of these guys should even be expecting to be renewed at this time, and the team should not worry about any of them yet either.

Let them prove themselves beyond what they did last year, and then decide whether to renew any one or all of them later on. They all have things to do to get better, and to what extent they do get better will determine their futures in Boston. Another thing, renewing any of these guys now may also hinder their trade values.

In effect, Danny has set up the short-term scenario beautifully. Barring trades, he'll have as many as five players who will automatically be busting their pelotas to prove themselves. And he can dump or trade the expiring contracts of the five who who come up short. And that's not counting the highly motivated rookies who make the squad. Just another little maneuver on Danny's part for which he'll never get any credit from some quarters.

Sam