Summer Quandaries 17 - Strategies For Acquiring Undervalued Assets

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2015/08/sq17-strategies-for-acquiring.html




SQ17 Strategies for Acquiring Undervalued Assets

By Lee Lauderdale









Each year I find myself looking around the league for players that might help and fit on the Celtics. Often I try to think outside the box by trying to identify undervalued players. Some might consider this shopping in the bargain bin, but clearance sales, forced sales, and underutilized properties can actually be quite attractive propositions. These types of tactics have been used in the past, often by Red himself. There are several different categories of opportunity, but each has this in common, player A is valued less by his current team than by the Boston front office.

Sometimes it is a group of owners who devalue the player such as the drafting of fifth year senior Larry Bird before he left college even though his “class” was draft eligible. Other teams were either unaware of the class-eligible aspect or they weren't willing to wait a season for him to be available to play. Red, on very good terms with his owner and secure in his position, essentially “stole the march” on his fellow general managers by choosing foresight over immediacy. Did he risk Bird having a career-ending injury during his senior season? Sure. Did he sacrifice the contribution of a player who could play immediately that season? Sure. Such is the nature of bargain hunting, there is a reason that the asset is undervalued. Was it a shrewd gamble? Most definitely.

The San Antonio Spurs have made a living (or at least a 15-yr run of contending for a title) out of drafting foreign players with their consistently late (25-30) first round picks, and waiting (there is that foresight/immediacy tradeoff again) for their pick to mature and hone is game overseas. In return they get a more polished (and better quality) player in a couple of years rather than a raw rookie who likely can't break into the rotation that draft year anyway. This is a tactic of which I wish the Celtics had made better use. Certainly the rest of the league has caught on, at least with second round picks.

Sometimes the bargain comes in the form of an under-used backup playing behind an established veteran. These opportunities often depend upon the under-valued player's team both pushing for the playoffs and having a glaring need at another position. One might put Danny Ainge's acquisition of Tyler Zeller in this category although the glaring need was cap room for Cleveland to sign LeBron James. This year you might place the David Lee for Gerald Wallace (saving Golden State big bucks by dumping a player already playing behind Draymond Green) and PJ3 (saving OKC big bucks) acquisitions in this category.

More rarely, the problem is not a star in front but rather the play of the asset. For what ever reason (fit, role, chemistry, clash with the coaching staff), a player is not producing as well as the Celtics think he can, and should. Recent examples include Sanders and Cousins; each of which brings home the cautionary tale reinforcing the gamble aspect of this form of shopping. Go back to the 80's and Parrish is a fine example of an under-performer that Auerbach stole (Red fleeced San Francisco as much, if not more, than Danny did Brooklyn).

Each year I find myself poring over the injury reports looking for that quality player (or prospect) lost for the season. If the Celtics can acquire him on the cheap and wait for the year of rehab, while his current team can't or isn't willing to wait, then there may be a bargain to be had. Often this hinges upon his current team either giving up on the player or preferring to invest in a more immediate reward. Currently on the scales are Joel Embiid and Dante Exum. Each is injured and likely to miss this season. Neither is on a team that is expected to contend for a title, perhaps not even for a playoff spot. In addition, the inherent value and competitive future of each player is somewhat in doubt. Still, I would exchange Evan Turner for either one in a heartbeat. Unfortunately Philly is probably still having nightmares from Turner's first go-round with the 76er's, but have they gotten fatigued enough with Embiid's unavailability to move him for other piece(s)? Also unfortunate is the fact than Utah seems to be in no particular hurry to climb out of the doldrums and played pretty well after the deadline without much contribution from Exum last spring. Still, I bet Danny has asked.

Prefer some historical examples? Think Walton of the Championship Celtics in 1986. How about a miss on “Gin” Baker, although alcoholism is not an injury. A non-Celtics miss—Bynum set back the programs in multiple franchises, kind of a Typhoid Mary of the NBA. The injury bargains are particularly risky, but that is why they are a potential bargain.

Just on a side note, that playing-behind-someone factor is likely the biggest reason that Johnathan Holmes is not going to camp with the C's. With an already crowded front court in Boston, Holmes, quite correctly, chose to seek a more favorable placement. If July had produced that many for one trade for the Celtics, I believe that Holmes would have signed with Boston rather than LA.

Only 49 days until camp.



bob
MY NOTE:  Red traded #1 for #3 and Parish.  #1, is very valuable, always considered to be a "franchise player", even if they end up coming up short.  Once you drop below number 3 or 4 it becomes more and more of a crap shoot, but, obviously, #1 is THE pick of the litter.  Danny traded 3 players, all 35 years old and up, for at least one legit player (Hump) and 3 first round picks from a franchise that, even if they had won a championship with those players, would not be a contender 5 years later when the 2018 pick came due.  If Red pulled the heist of the century getting undervalued 27 year old Robert Parish for a two draft spot downgrade, Danny did pretty well convincing Billy King of the Nets to NOT undervalue Pierce, Garnett and Terry.

Danny is more active than Red was, he trades more and feels less loyalty towards individual players than he does to the winning.  This is somewhat disturbing, it is not Red's way, but it is good to have a GM with that level of ganas.  Danny hates losing, I hate losing and he is always looking to upgrade and will continue to do that until he has assets that are good enough that a trade for a star isn't laughable.

San Antonio has had the luxury of having the same coach since the earth cooled.  Hopefully, with Brad, we now have that.  His signing wasn't Danny acquiring an undervalued asset, everybody wanted Brad, that was about him being able to charm a songbird out of a tree, but now that we have him we could be looking at a Spurs-like run.  Yeah, yeah, I know how ridiculous that sounds but the first step is getting the coach and the system.  The next step is getting the assets that make the coach look like a winner.  Once you build that, they will come and Danny never sleeps.


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one MIGHT argue that without David Robinson and then Tim Duncan, Popovich might have been a footnote in the Spurs history.


coaches do matter for sure, but many feel it gets down to the players.

I just wish Stevens had a YOUNG Robinson or Duncan or Magic or Jordan or James or BIRD on this team!