Summer Quandaries 25: A Test for 2016-17?

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2015/08/sq24-test-for-2016-17.html



SQ25 A Test for 2016-17?

By Lee Lauderdale







Barring that huge “shakeup” trade, the roster this season seems fairly set (perhaps just subtract one). Pairings and rotations are still a hazy fog but I have a lot of confidence in Brad Stevens to put players in situations to succeed, and hence for the team to succeed. Off the practice court and into the front office and the picture looks a lot more fluid. Danny has set up the groundwork to take the rebuild in almost any direction. He has got a ton of picks next year and while I doubt that all will be used, the “programmed” turnover makes all, or none, possible.

A look at the depth from a contractual status
(under contract—uc, team option—to, qualifying offer—qo, or free agent—FA)
for 2016-17:

PG................SG...............SF.................PF...................C

(uc)
I. Thomas-----A. Bradley----J. Crowder-----J. Mickey
T. Rozier.......R.J. Hunter

(to)
M. Smart------J. Young------J. Jerebko------A. Johnson------K. Olynyk

(qo)
--------------------------------P. Jones--------J. Sullinger-----T. Zeller

(fa)
--------------------------------E. Turner-------D. Lee


Several things strike me about that layout. First, the Celtics have only six players under contract for 16-17; although that may change if any of Zeller, Sullinger, or Jones sign extensions this October. Danny has another entire unit under team option for that season. The C's have three eligible for extensions, and two of them are (IMHO) major questions going into camp. As for the two who will be outright free agents, neither were likely to be in Boston by the time the Celtics play in the Conference Finals again.

Ainge could easily move or replace two-thirds of the team, whether that is drafting a double handful, or trading a bunch for one, or signing a pair of star quality or a flock of middling guys, or some combination thereof.

Take this test, make two lists of the players who don't have a guaranteed contract for 16-17. One is players who will return, the other is those who won't. There are 10 players, so let's give 10 points for each you get in the correct column. Now you already have a 50-50 chance for each and every one; but I defy you to make a passing grade.

Only 42 days to camp.



bob
MY NOTE:  One of the things I've noticed about Danny is that he learns from past experiences, he's not a guy who just keeps hammering the same screw with a hammer again and again and expects it to go in the next time he hits it.  The sudden and unexpected departures of Tony Allen and Ray Allen changed how he viewed players who didn't walk, talk and act totally committed to the Celtics (see Rondo, Rajon).  Sometimes this is good and sometimes not.  One of the lessons he learned, and he has spoken about this, was that when James Harden was on the block by OKC he wasn't in a position to make an offer.  Well, flexibility is NOT going to be one of his problems this time.  That might make for some sleepless nights by the players and their agents, but he doesn't care.

Brad has been begging for stability. Danny is all about moving the pieces until he has the ones he thinks can compete for a championship. Must make for an interesting working relationship.


.

Roster stability obviously helps with chemistry. The other side of the coin is the danger in ceasing turnover too soon. I'd certainly be willing to endure some instability because of the advent of the right center.

Sam

It is certainly easy to see why Stevens wants more roster stability-he can get more done with the guys he has if he has them longer both collectively and as individuals. Adding new players all the time has to slow the progress of individual and team improvement to some degree. He has stated that he does like "his" guys last year many times, and they did seem to give him all they had all the time especially after Rondo was traded.

On the other hand, Ainge knows that there is not yet enough talent to win another championship and that it is still his job to gather more talent. Stevens knows this as well, but it is easy to see his view of "his" players that he very much likes.

I am sure that they are on the same page, but may look at that same page with different glasses at times.

It is my thought that both men know that there will be more roster turnover, and probably even some more before this season begins in late October. However, there is likely to be less turnover from year to year as the team's talent level has increased quite a bit since Stevens' first season.