Trade Lee & Johnson asap

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Post by bobheckler Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:54 pm

dboss and Cowens,

First of all, speaking as someone who lives in the San Francisco bay area and watches a fair amount of GSW basketball, I can say that you cannot take David Lee's last year and project that forward as an indication of the rest of his career.  Quite simply, his minutes and overall numbers mean nothing.  He was NOT benched because of the quality of his play, he was benched because he got injured (not a serious one, it just sat him down for a while) and because of the ascendancy of Draymond Green.  If you look at Lee's /36 minute numbers, his offense falls off a bit but his rebounding/minute is as good as it ever was.  Comparing his numbers, straight up, to a player that played more minutes makes no sense.

/36mpg, 2014-2015 season:

Bass - 16.2 points-----7.9 rebounds-----50.4% fg%------79% ft%-----1.9 ast-----1.5TO-----.8 stls-----.6 blocks
Lee  -  15.5 points----10.2 rebounds-----51.0% fg%-----65% ft%------3.4 ast-----2.0TO-----1.2 stls---1.0 blocks

The only category Bass clearly beat Lee in last year was ft%.  I cannot explain why, since he is a 77.5% career frito shooter.

And I think I've been pretty clear how much I like and respect "Steady Eddy" Brandon Bass' game.  This is not a knock on him.

I'd like Outside to chime in here, if he'd like.  He might watch even more GSW basketball than me.


As far as Perk goes, Cowens, you have a raging bromance going with him and just will not accept the fact that, without KG, he wasn't the same player.  Did OKC go further with him than they did with Krstic?  Yeah.  They also went further without Jeff Green.  It wasn't a straight up one-for-one swap.  Unless you're changing your mind and thinking Jeff Green was such a great talent his departure should have hurt them?


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Post by Outside Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:42 pm

Lee has improved significantly defensively. He was part of very effective 5-man defensive groups, and his one-on-one defense is much improved over prior years. He's not in the running for defensive player of the year, but he's decent individually and better than decent from a team defense standpoint.

Whether you consider him an upgrade defensively over Olynyk and Sullinger is a matter of opinion, but I would. He has better instincts than Olynyk and doesn't have his leaden feet. Practically anyone in the league could rise up over Sullinger or outrace him down the floor, and Lee is much better in that regard. We need to see the new, sleeker Sullinger play to see if he's improved in those areas, but even if he's much fitter, it's difficult to change a mindset that has developed over the years. Lee has a much better motor.

Where Lee could definitely help is on the boards and on offense, keeping the ball moving and scoring inside, which will create good opportunities for perimeter shooters and cutters. He's a good and willing passer. He'll make the other players better offensively. As Bob noted, his overall numbers were down last year, but that was because he missed the first 25 games with a hamstring injury, came back slowly, and was replaced by Draymond Green in the lineup. Despite that, his per-36-minute numbers held up very well. The main reason Lee couldn't get back in the starting lineup is that he couldn't match Green's ability to defend anyone from the point guard to the center, which the Warriors used to great effect in their small lineups.

Even though Lee took a backseat role last season, he stayed positive, didn't complain, and bided his time. He was part of the unit that turned the Warriors around when they were down 2-1 in both the Memphis series and the Cleveland series. He had a significant impact in winning both series and the title; he wasn't just along for the ride.

Lee can also help from a leadership standpoint. No one else on Boston has been an all-star or played on a championship team. Lee has always been considered a great teammate and was one of Steph Curry's favorites (Lee came to Golden State the year after Curry's rookie season).

I liked Bass in Boston, and I think he'll help the Warriors, but I think Lee will be a nice addition to the frontcourt for Boston.

EDIT: This is not a Gerald Wallace situation -- Lee can still play.
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Post by 112288 Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:10 pm

Wallace was dead wood and Lee can fetch some value moving forward and he can contribute now and not sit on the bench.

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Post by cowens/oldschool Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:58 pm

bob I want to let the Perk thing stop/die, you keep bringing him up FIRST in all these other threads, taking shots at his weaknesses. On this thread I did bring it up first, but I'm sick of you taking potshots at a hard playing role player like Perk, who was a championship center and was manning the middle on 2 teams that made it to the Finals, for some reason it hurts you to accept that. If a center can't do an adequate job anchoring a defense, get another that can, cause you can't win with soft guys like Krstic, Zeller, Mark Blount, Lefrentz, etc.

Maybe this guys defense was pretty good and he did contribute in some way in the teams success.

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Post by gyso Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:18 am

We just got Lee and Johnson. They ain't going anywhere.

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Post by cowens/oldschool Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:21 am

I'd rather get rid of Z and KO and start from scratch, looking for new center prospects.

Smallball here we come.

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Post by gyso Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:33 am

Zeller and KO ain't going anywhere either.  The odd man out, IMO, is Sully.

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Post by Sam Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:01 am

It really is all about the team and not about individual comparisons.

So, from a team perspective at the C and PF spots, I think one very solid rationale exists. Lee and Johnson could well be a more productive offense/defense combination than any big man pairing involving Sully or Kelly.

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Post by Sam Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:10 am

Cow,

I'm in agreement that both Sully and Kelly have flaws that are serious enough to require a long remedial period at the very least.  However, criticizing Kelly's three point percentage as "declining" is not the way to make your point.  It's been stable throughout his brief career, except when it zoomed up to 48% in April of the regular season and 50% in the playoffs.

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Post by kdp59 Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:49 am

I understand what dboss is saying here. when we looked at this team as last season ended most of us still saw that gaping hole at center as our primary need.

after just finishing a season with Sully, Bass, Jerebko and KO as PF's on the roster (though some were forced to play center) and only Zeller as a true center, we felt we all knew where Danny would be going this off-season.

then early in Free agency Ainge signs another power forward to a deal that made him the highest paid player on the team for the coming season. replacing Bass with Amir made sense to me, even with Sully and KO on the roster.

but then Ainge resigns Jerebko to a market deal. Now I am getting confused at to what the plan is. where is the playing time for Jerebko at PF with Amir, Sully and KO in front of him? Does Stevens see Jerebko as a big SF?

next the trade for Lee. While dumping Wallace and his $10M for Lee and his $15M expiring makes sense in that Lee is probably a better player than Wallace today (always was perhaps). Now we have yet ANOTHER power forward in the log jam there.

All the while R. Hibbert was DUMPED from the Pacers for a second round pick only AND K. Koufos signed a 4yr/ $33M deal as an UFA. Both players are better defensive centers than anyone on last years or this years roster, in anyone's honest evaluations. yet Danny had no seeming interest in either.

I think myself and perhaps others would be more exited with say Hibbert or Koufos over Amir on todays roster. So all of this has had me re-think how I see an NBA roster now. I try now to NOT think of centers and power forwards instead of thinking of them as our two power players. I think this allow me to understand closer how Danny and Brad are seeing things moving forward.

they see Bigs period not positions I assume. We'll all see how it works out, but there is still too many "bigs" and not enough minutes to go around with the roster right now it seems to me.




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Post by dboss Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:00 am

Lee is not a good defender.  He never has been a good defender.  There is zero defensive improvement with him on the team and his defensive contribution is likely to be less than zero.  He still can score and he is a good rebounder but if he is playing 20 - 22 MPG his scoring and rebounding contribution would be no better than Sully or KO.

He is 6' 9" and yet visions of him playing center cloud the reality that he is a PF,  he has a short term contract and his presence only serves to take minutes away from other younger players.

Amir Johnson is a solid veteran player.  However he does not bring anything to the table that we do not already have.  Now some fans see him playing backup center as well.  He is no rim protector averaging .08 blks per game and only 0.6 steals.  KO put up the same numbers in only his 2nd year in the league.

I have not even mentioned the value that  Jerebko provides and how Lee and Johnson reduce his value.

If Johnson and Lee  were younger player AND DA had them locked in for 3,4 or 5 year deals then I can see a future with them on the team.  There is no future with them.  They undermine the young players that are already on the team and developing.  

If Sully comes back and is in great condition, I believe his impact on the team will increase significantly.  Is Danny waiting for Sully to get better so that he can trade him.  Is he looking for his next Al Jefferson to anchor the big deal?  Would any high end center agree to a trade to the Celtics anytime soon?  

If Sully is in shape I am not trading him.  We already know that he can play.  I am not trading KO because he is a very good basketball player and I think he could turn into a terrific (Tommy Heinsohn) player.

Danny is like the guy at that dance that gets rejected everytime he goes up to the pretty girls and asked if they wanna boogie.  In the end he settles for a very average girl so that everyone will think he is a real player.

Danny is looking for the magic in the bottle and he cannot find it so he is more likely to over reach.  he was willing to give up 4 first rounders for Winslow.  Winslow is a very good player but there is no way in hell that he would have been worth 4 first rounders.  Danny called around the league looking for a trade to get a center.  No one was willing to do business with him.

He comes away with 1 veteran free agent and dumps Wallace for another expiring contract. Neither one of them add any significance to the team.  He knows they have no future in Boston.  But in the process he undermines the rotations that are already in place and now must make a trade or cut a player.

I like the guys we have on this team.  We need to upgrade our talent in certain areas.  Lee and Johnson are simply not good enough to consider them as upgrades over what we already have.

If anyone out there thinks that KO and Sully are not better than Lee/Johnson then why did Danny draft them?  I thought Danny had an eye for talent.  I am willing to give those two players at least one more year to develop.  Therefore Lee and Johnson should be moved to acquire a player that does not add another layer of redundancy.

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Post by 112288 Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:34 am

Jerebko only makes sense at SF. Otherwise why the signing unless used as a filler in a trade.

dBoss KDP have raised some good points. Keep the trend going on this topic we may get some additional good points.

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Post by bobheckler Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:56 am

Just to baseline statistical comparisons:


/36 mpg, 2014-2015 season only:

Player...................................Points.....FG%.......Rebounds.....Assists.....TOs.....Steals.....Blocks.....PFs
David Lee-------------------------15.5------51.1%-----10.2---------3.4---------2.0-----1.2-------1.0--------3.3
Amir Johnson---------------------12.6------57.4%------8.3---------2.1---------2.0------.8--------1.1--------4.1
Kelly Olynyk----------------------16.6------47.5%------7.7---------2.8---------2.5------1.6-------1.0--------5.4
Jared Sullinger--------------------17.7------43.9%----10.1---------3.1---------1.8------1.0-------1.0--------3.5
Jonas Jerebko (Boston only)-----14.1------43.1%------9.6---------2.0---------1.2-----1.3---------.5--------4.0

Lee's 3pt fgas were nil, so his fg% is his 2pt fg%.  Johnson's 2pt fg% is 59%, Olynyk's 2pt fg% 53.8%, Sully's 2pt fg% is 49.4% and Jerebko's 2pt fg% is 44.4% (but he shoots a fantastic 40.6% from 3).


We have 16 guaranteed contracts.  We know someone is gone.  The assumptions are that it's going to be either Young or Jones but, let me say again, Danny never sleeps.  It is entirely possible one, or more, of the 5 players above may be gone before the 1/7/16 contract guarantee date or by the trade deadline (not yet announced, but probably around 3/1/16).  Both Danny and Brad have said that we are too young.  With the addition of 3 rookies, we just got a lot younger.  We all know why that happened, Miami and Charlotte wouldn't go for Danny's deals, but that doesn't change the fact that we got younger and Danny/Brad wants us to get older.  It may very well end up one or more of the young'uns are gone and not Lee or Amir.



bob



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Post by Outside Fri Aug 21, 2015 2:22 pm

dboss,

I agree that packaging Johnson and Lee for a center -- the right center -- would be better than keeping them, but not just any center will do. Hibbert certainly wouldn't do -- Indiana dumped him so that they can run a more uptempo offense, and he would muck up Stevens system, not fit into it. Have you watched Koufos play? He's a Zeller-level quality player, except that he doesn't fit Stevens' system as well. Zeller is more mobile and can get out on the break.

Good centers are a rare commodity in the NBA, and good centers who fit the new space-and-pace style gaining favor around the league and which Stevens prefers are even rarer. The Spurs won a title with a rather good player named Tim Duncan to fill that role. The Warriors used Bogut for half a game as a defensive anchor and as a passer and occasional lob target on offense, but the more mobile and athletic Festus Ezeli is their guy for the future, along with small-ball lineups that don't have a center.

Nerlens Noel and, if he were healthy, Joel Embiid might be good fits. Obviously Anthony Davis, though he has thus far played with a center next to him for defensive purposes (that may change with Alvin Gentry). As far as the draft goes, the options seem to be having a top pick (which the Celtics don't have) or finding a nugget further down the board like Ezeli (who has yet to fully develop).

Given time, I think Zeller will be a pretty good fit. He's still young, and he's had only one year in the system. A little patience and you might find that the center you need is already on the roster.

There's no doubt that there are too many power forwards on the roster, but a power forward who can also play center will have extra value, and Johnson and Lee are at the top of that list. As Sam has pointed out, they may actually be a pretty effective combo.

Not that you can do it all the time, but the Warriors used small-ball lineups without a true center successfully and forced the Grizzlies and Cavs to sit one of their bigs because they couldn't match up defensively. The key to making it work is rebounding, and both Lee and Johnson can rebound against bigger opponents, so their potential in small-ball lineups is intriguing.

If you want to dump on Lee and Johnson and see only the worst side of them, then there's nothing anyone can say to change your mind. But for others out there who are unsure about the situation, I see significant potential in the Johnson and Lee signings. I think it's a good possibility that at least one of them will re-sign after this season and that fans will be happy when they do. Nobody thought much of Crowder before he arrived, but he's a favorite now.

So let's see how this plays out. Trades will be made, but I expect Johnson and Lee will still be here when the dust settles and the season gets underway.
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Post by kdp59 Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:59 pm

Bob, you forgot Zeller on that per 36 list above.

Outside you may be correct about Hibbert and Koufos, though I would note that you also talk about GS winning it all with an up tempo game and still having that bog defensive center on their team (maybe more for the long season, than the playoffs).

either way both players were not on Danny's radar. I was just pointing them out as two possible options that may have made some of us happier about the off-season moves. second guessing and Monday morning QBing of course win ZERO games.

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Post by Outside Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:39 am

kdp,

You're correct that the Warriors use Bogut effectively over the long haul of the season, but for only half a game. He averaged 23.6 minutes per game this past season.

They also don't let Bogut slow them down when it comes to fast breaks. They were among the best (if not the best) fast breaking team, with all those talented wing shooters getting out on the break.

Even in halfcourt sets, Bogut doesn't make the ball "stick" like it does with traditional bigs like Hibbert. Bogut passes the ball well, and he keeps the ball moving.

A big like that can work.
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Post by bobheckler Sat Aug 22, 2015 11:10 am

Outside wrote:kdp,

You're correct that the Warriors use Bogut effectively over the long haul of the season, but for only half a game. He averaged 23.6 minutes per game this past season.

They also don't let Bogut slow them down when it comes to fast breaks. They were among the best (if not the best) fast breaking team, with all those talented wing shooters getting out on the break.

Even in halfcourt sets, Bogut doesn't make the ball "stick" like it does with traditional bigs like Hibbert. Bogut passes the ball well, and he keeps the ball moving.

A big like that can work.


outside,

This is what I saw this past season too. The fact that Bogut was healthy this year surely did help, but he wasn't used in the traditional "30+ minute/game, dump-it-inside-and-let-him-work-his-man" starting center role. 24mpg are only a few more mpg than Zeller played.


bob



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Post by cowens/oldschool Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:17 pm

bobheckler wrote:
Outside wrote:kdp,

You're correct that the Warriors use Bogut effectively over the long haul of the season, but for only half a game. He averaged 23.6 minutes per game this past season.

They also don't let Bogut slow them down when it comes to fast breaks. They were among the best (if not the best) fast breaking team, with all those talented wing shooters getting out on the break.

Even in halfcourt sets, Bogut doesn't make the ball "stick" like it does with traditional bigs like Hibbert. Bogut passes the ball well, and he keeps the ball moving.

A big like that can work.


outside,

This is what I saw this past season too.  The fact that Bogut was healthy this year surely did help, but he wasn't used in the traditional "30+ minute/game, dump-it-inside-and-let-him-work-his-man" starting center role.  24mpg are only a few more mpg than Zeller played.


bob



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they needed him for his defense, especially his post defense which he is still very good at, his offense didn't matter.

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