Summer Quandaries 30: Most Likely To Disappoint, Second Place

by **bobheckler** Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:57 am

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2015/08/sq30-most-likely-to-disappoint-second.html

SQ30 Most Likely To Disappoint, Second Place

By Lee Lauderdale

Summer Quandaries 30: Most Likely To Disappoint, Second Place SQ%2B2

Summer Quandaries 30: Most Likely To Disappoint, Second Place SQ%2B2

As I pointed out in the first Disappointment installment, the measure is against expectations, our fan expectations, not reasonable expectations. With this yardstick, I have two candidates, both of whom were major cogs in last year's team. Their reasons for nomination are almost exact opposites however; one is due to potential improvement, the other due to a setback in progress.

You may have already guessed our players for this column from that comment. For those of you who have taken the summer off, until today, the principals for our discussion are Jared Sullinger and Marcus Smart. Last November I think most would have put them in the front of the line of reasons to be optimistic about the Celtics future. That may be true this coming November also, but there is a long trail 'twixt hither and yon.

Most see Marcus Smart as the Celtic most likely to become at least a borderline star. Certainly he has some glossy assets. To hit the league as a rookie with the defensive prowess, consummate aggression, and confident poise is quite impressive. He is not without deficits and some of them seem fix-able while others pose a more knotty problem. Almost all of us were quite impressed with his summer league performances, and were excited to contemplate his building on them throughout the remainder of the summer. And that's the problem which puts him in today's discussion.

Not only were the displaced fingers plural, but the displacements were not trivial—I don't think bone protruding through the skin is ever likely to be trivial. These were also the key fingers on his dominant hand. Of the deficits mentioned that should improve with practice are shooting, especially from long range, and ball handling. While every guard, especially points, need to develop their off hand (and that may be the silver lining in the dark cloud of injury), a nasty injury to the dominant hand hardly bodes well for improved ball-handling coming out of this off-season. I hope Marcus comes back with a significantly more adept left hand (I certainly made strides the year I broke my right elbow), which would pay dividends by making him not only a better dribbler left handed but also a better passer with that off hand. That will make his game much more ambidextrous and much less predictable and make him a much tougher cover.

There is no getting around the fact that this injury will severely set back his effort to improve his shooting. If you think of shooting as like a golf game, setting your base and squaring your shoulders and getting good, consistent lift is driving. Positioning the ball and getting good extension is like a good approach shot. The release, in which those two dislocated fingers are the last to lose contact and which make the final adjustments for spin and accuracy, is the work on the green; and any golfer will tell you that "you drive for show and put for dough" is a basic truism. Those two fingers are critical not only to the long bomb but also to a mid-range touch shot and to the deft magic at and near the basket on drives.

One month lost before resuming basketball activities is only the tip of the iceberg on the effects and aftershocks of this injury. He's going to have to regain mobility, and strength, before he can make much progress just trying to get back to where he was in mid July. I don't think it is a stretch to say that if, by the time camp starts, he gets back to the level he was at on July 16, it will be a remarkable recovery.

The problem is that we fans, or way too many of us, will expect him to have continued progressing during August and September. If that is the expectation, then I think Marcus will be a real disappointment when the first action recording airs in October. My own hope is that he will improve rapidly during October, finally being physically sound. Just as the bad ankle sprain robbed him of lateral movement and curtailed his driving to the basket, basically retarding his growth during his rookie year, now this summer league disaster is going to rob him of much of the progress that he, and we, hoped would come from his off-season work. I think he will get there, but I will be amazed if he comes out of the gate taking the game by storm.

The other guy I see as primed to disappoint is Jared Sullinger. I do think he has lost weight. I suspect he has done this in ways that will not hurt his overall health. I do suspect that he will come back in better, hopefully much better, condition. If these things aren't true then he won't be disappointing, he'll be gone. The problem is in just what fans expect will be the effects of lower weight and better conditioning.

I don't see Sullinger coming back with new skills, and I fear a lot of fans do think that his getting in shape will unleash some heretofore hidden talents. I don't think he will jump much higher; hopefully he will be able to get in position to jump more often and be able to jump more often. I don't think his jump shot will be released much higher; hopefully his “base” will be more solid and his jump more consistent far later into the game. I don't think he will be doing significantly different things, I just think he will be able to do them more often and far longer. In previous seasons it seems like Jared has been fighting 4th-quarter exhaustion starting about three minutes into the game, and from then on.

I'm afraid that fans expecting to see a new, improved Sullinger will have to be discerning. They won't see a radically different player, but perhaps they will see a talented player who can contribute 24 minutes of high-quality performance. I hope they can see a player hustling back on defense, fresh-legged enough to employ his full, albeit limited, mobility on every play, moving from the 3-point line into rebounding position while his teammates shot is in the air, and getting down court to be in position to take advantage of the drag shots available because his outlet passes have sparked fast breaks. Believe me, that would be a remarkably improved Sullinger.

You're going to be disappointed if you expect the conditioned Sully to be a high flyer. He's still not going to rise above the rim, but he might be able to make the second and third jumps (even if modest) that often win the rebound when persistent effort triumphs over the showy first jump fought to a standstill by positioning. I actually have quite a bit of optimism regarding Jared; I just think it will be consistent, sustained “old” quality rather than new quality.

So, perhaps two faux disappointments, only in the eye of the beholders. One due to impatience because Marcus is “not there yet,” and the other because the leopard didn't change his spots, just became a far more sustainable really-nice-spotted leopard.

Only 34 days to camp.

bob
MY NOTE: Unfortunately, I'm inclined to agree with Lee again. Smart's biggest weakness was his shooting and that did not show any improvement this summer. He was much more aggressive going to the rim, and that's a very good thing, but his shooting? Not good. I'm not worried about the fingers as much as Lee, I'm just worried about Smart's lack of shooting touch. He does have ganas, by the bucketful, and that's worth a lot too. You just cannot have too many players who would kill for a win. His defense, in summer league, was QUITE impressive. He was blowing up plays left-and-right and was spurring Rozier onwards and upwards on defense as well. He, perhaps more than anybody else I saw in summer league, from any team, looked more like a veteran than a young'un still trying to prove himself in summer league. Hopefully that confidence and court play translates into regular season games.

Can Sully take advantage of his lower weight, or will he just be a smaller version of himself, a smaller version of a modern power forward?

I think another possible candidate for "2nd loser" is Amir Johnson. I think Amir will do well, but I think he could get dragged down by the expectations game, and Lee said that's the key to these columns, because of his $12M contract. Money is Danny's job but we often get caught up with it too. We all know David Lee is a short-term rental, at $10M, and he's an upgrade to the roster over Wallace, but Amir is still young enough to keep around, but at $12M?

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by **sinus007** Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:35 pm

Hi,
With all due respect to LL's articles, I think he used so much negative paint in describing PJ3, MS and JS that if they perform just a tiny-tiny bit better we'd consider them a success.
I don't know much about PJ3 but as for Smart and Sully I don't quite agree with Lee.
Smart. His main qualities, aggressiveness and defense, shouldn't be gone due to that injury. As for shooting, he'll get it (I think/hope that the injury isn't serious) soon enough.
Sully. Situation seems quite simple: he keeps his weight in check - he keeps the team and fans happy.

AK

Summer Quandaries 30: Most Likely To Disappoint, Second Place

Summer Quandaries 30: Most Likely To Disappoint, Second Place

Re: Summer Quandaries 30: Most Likely To Disappoint, Second Place