RealGM Season Preview: Boston Celtics

For comparison purposes, vs Hoophype's preview.




http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/239236/NBA-Season-Preview-Boston-Celtics



NBA Season Preview: Boston Celtics

BY BRETT KOREMENOS

SEP 16, 2015 4:41 PM



Over the next month, we will be previewing every team in the NBA. Here is the first installment of our series as we examine the Boston Celtics.

2014-15 Record: 40-42

Notable Acquisitions: David Lee (Trade), Amir Johnson (FA), Terry Rozier (Draft), R.J. Hunter (Draft)

Notable Departures: Brandon Bass

Temperature Check:

After failing to lure a big name this offseason, the Celtics will look to rely on a youthful core, a few veteran cast offs and an emerging head coach to follow up their surprise playoff appearance this past season. Here is a detailed look at what to expect from Boston this upcoming season, along with a few intriguing themes and questions facing the team.

Inside the Playbook:

If you were looking to capture the essence of the Celtics' offense in a single word, it would be “spacing.” Under Brad Stevens, Boston has become the class of the league when it comes to positioning players in ways to create large swaths of open space. But spacing by itself doesn’t make great offense, as evidenced by the team’s mediocre 18th place finish in offensive efficiency, according to our RealGM database.

The reason for Boston’s struggles on offense was two-fold. For starters, standing bodies on the perimeter to pull defenses away from the basket works a lot better when those players actually make shots when help defenders focus attention elsewhere. The Celtics struggled mightily at that concept last season, converting just 32.7 percent of their shots from distance, placing them firmly among the NBA’s bottom feeders (27th to be exact).  

The other issue was that before Isaiah Thomas joined the team in late February, the Celtics' offense was anchored by Evan Turner (and Rajon Rondo) operating pick-and-rolls. Over the course of the 21 games he played for the team, Thomas’ presence elevated the team’s offensive rating to 109.2 in the 545 minutes he was on the floor -- a mark that would have been the third best in the league if it held up for an entire season. Both Turner and Thomas will return this year and will without a doubt spearhead the Boston attack with their pick-and-roll play.

Turner has become a solid playmaker out of the action, taking advantage of Boston’s fantastic spacing and his size to find open teammates both on the perimeter and, particularly, on the roll. With David Lee now in the fold and Tyler Zeller returning, Turner will have no problems racking up assists with nifty interior passes to two superb pick-and-roll finishes. Turner also does a good job of coming off the screen and unleashing his preferred shot, the mid-range pull-up, which he gets to by ‘cross-graining’ (commonly referred to as ‘snaking’ in NBA circles) in the opposite direction he originally comes off the screen.




At 50.2 percent, about six percentage points below league average, Turner is a poor finisher at the rim. Unfortunately for Stevens and the Celtics, his outside shooting is just as ineffective, causing opponents to go under screens involving Turner near the 3-point line and daring him to shoot behind. This move can typically render a pick-and-roll dead-on-arrival, but Stevens has built in a concept to help Turner get to more efficient spots on the floor, for him at least.



Re-screening against an under coverage in pick-and-rolls isn’t exactly a ground-breaking tactic, but it’s a clever concept put to use by Stevens to help one of his primarily ballhanders play to his strengths.

With Thomas, Stevens doesn’t have to do much else but let him go. While his size limits his playmaking ability, Thomas packs a lot more scoring bunch in pick-and-rolls, averaging over 1.1 points per possession while with the Celtics, per Synergy data, putting him near the league’s elite in that category. Unlike Turner, Thomas can threaten teams with off-the-dribble 3’s when defenders lag too far behind the play.



On top of his more threatening outside shot, Thomas, despite his diminutive stature, managed to finish 15th in the league in Free Throw Rate, per Basketball Reference. And if Boston is to build on their surprising playoff success from last year, Thomas and Turner will once again be counted on to shoulder a heavy load with their contrasting approaches.

Lineup To Watch:

David Lee-Kelly Olynyk-Jae Crowder-Marcus Smart-Isaiah Thomas

When the Golden State Warriors took off in his absence, it became easy to forget that Lee brings useful skills to the floor. An ill-fit due to contrasting personnel in a reconfigured Golden State offense, Lee should be able to spearhead some interesting smallball units in Boston. The lineup above is just one variation -- Olynyk could be swapped out for Jonas Jerebko, ditto for Crowder or Smart with Avery Bradley -- that would allow Lee to freelance in space, putting pressure on spread out defenses with his outstanding versatility in pick-and-rolls.

It’s a role that Lee thrived in under Mike D’Antoni in New York. Like D’Antoni, Stevens allows a fair degree of flexibility in his offensive system, especially in semi-transition. That means Lee will be allowed to be tricky with his decisioning making of who, how and when he screens for any one of Boston’s perimeter ballhandlers, just like he did with the Knicks:



Now obviously lineups with Lee at the 5 won’t be tenable for long durations as the defensive limitations -- which could be mitigated somewhat with two very good perimeter defenders in Smart and Crowder -- will be readily apparent against potent offensive combinations. But for short stretches against the right personnel, this lineup, and others like, could pile up the points against the Celtics opponents.

The Wildcard:

Marcus Smart

While some teams in NBA purgatory had welcome prized rookies or had generally more attention-grabbing off-seasons, Boston is left crossing their figures that one youngster on their roster full of callow pro’s matures quickly. Despite an unremarkable rookie season with some worrying shooting percentages (36.7 percent from the field, 33.5 from 3), a solid playoff debut and a tantalizing cameo in Summer League puts Smart as the likely candidate for a noticeable leap. In particular, Smart’s improvement in two areas -- pick-and-roll scoring or outside shooting -- could be a major boon for the Celtics.

As mentioned above, Boston desperately needs players capable of knocking down outside shots resulting from the pristine spacing in their system. If Smart can elevate his percentage from slightly below league average to genuine threat level (37-38 percent), it could add an additional hurdle for opponents against an improving offensive team. And while it’s far more unlikely, if Smart can approach Thomas’ level of pick-and-roll scoring, it will allow the team to lean less on the inefficient Turner to break down opposing defenses in the halfcourt. And giving the creative Stevens another weapon to attack opponents could make the Celtics a much more relevant team this season.

Coach’s Question:

How will Brad Stevens handle his frontcourt rotation?

You’d be hard pressed to find a more eclectic frontcourt in the NBA than the one Stevens will be working with in Boston. Lee and Zeller are potent finishers in pick-and-rolls, but offer almost nothing on the other end of the floor. Olynyk and Jerebko offer skill and shooting, but they too won’t be confused with a defensive stoppers anytime soon. Mix in jack-of-all/some trades, master-of-none types in holdover fourth-year big man Jared Sullinger and free agent acquisition Amir Johnson, and Stevens will have options aplenty.

Like Rick Carlisle has done for years in Dallas, Stevens has shown a unique ability to mix and match his in-game matchups and put his team in the best position to succeed. But this group, especially with their defensive limitations, will test Boston’s pragmatic head coach. The ability of Stevens to find workable frontcourt pairings on a nightly basis could very well define the Celtics season.

Best Case Scenario:

45-37 If…..

Stevens works his magic with the big man rotation, Smart and Crowder unveil (and maintain!) improved potency beyond the arc and Thomas puts himself into All-Star consideration by slicing up opposing defenses with his pick-and-roll savvy.

Worst Case Scenario:

33-49 If…..

Smart and Crowder remain just pesky defenders. Thomas misses extended time, forcing Stevens to rely heavily on Turner and fellow mid-range chucker Avery Bradley to provide production on offense while the addition of Lee to the frontcourt rotation causes the defense to take a small step back.



bob
MY NOTE:  A lot of people are citing last season's stats as starting points for this season.  That makes sense for a team that did not have a lot of roster turnover, but we did.  For relevancy to this season they should be looking at the post-trade deadline Boston Celtics and not at the entire season.  The team, with Rondo and Green, was very different from the one we saw in the last 2 months.  He talks about how bad our offense was, and then talks about how it changed for the better after we got Thomas.  Ok, fine, so don't we have Thomas now from the beginning of the season?  He's using season-long stats to base his opinion on, while admitting the last 2 months where we had Thomas was different, but the last 2 months with Thomas won't have a significant weighted impact on 6 months worth of games.  If Danny gutted the team again for the start of this season that'd be one thing, but we have 10 returning players from the end of the season, so why wouldn't we look at how we did when those 10 players were playing at the end of the season and discount the numbers before that?

"Veteran castoffs"?  Amir was a free agent signing, for big bucks.  If you want to say he was overpaid, fine, but he wasn't "cast off" by the Raptors.  David Lee requested a trade, because he feels he can still play at a high level and wants the minutes to prove it, and we got him for "veteran cast off" Gerald Wallace.  I'll take "cast offs" like those guys any day.  I think Amir is going to make us very happy with his defense and David Lee can ball, still.  The story line this year will be, and is being mentioned already, how Brad will give them enough minutes to make them happy, given our depth in the front court, and not how he has to bury them on the bench like he did with Wallace.

33-49?  We won't go 33-49 because, if it becomes clear we're sucking that badly, Danny will blow the team up and we'll either go down the tubes big-time or he'll pull off a trade that improves us.  I cannot see Trader Danny watch us regress that much and do nothing.  That'd be like a hungry cheetah letting a baby Thompson gazelle walk past it wagging its tail.  Not gonna happen.  45-37?  Yeah, that's more like it, a 5 game improvement from mostly organic growth but I'll bet we'll do even better.  I'm still thinking closer to 47-35 or 48-34.  A couple of clutch wins we didn't get last year, maybe an upgrade from a trade and we could possibly even sniff 50.  I wouldn't make bet on 50, but we should be able to see it from where we are without glasses. What did these people project for us last year at this time? 28 wins? 30 wins? I think one brave soul predicted 32 wins.

Have I got my "Celtics Happy Face" on?  You betcha, I always do as we run up to camp, but I'm just not seeing what these writers are saying.  They're using season long stats of a team that are completely different from the team from this time last year, and they're not telling us which teams are going to catch and pass us.  Is Brooklyn, who was 8th last season, going to improve and pass us?  No.  Indy?  Improve yes, pass us?  Possible but unlikely.  Charlotte?  With the addition of multi-first round pick worth Frank Kaminsky, Jeremy Lin and Spencer Hawes?  Improvement yes, pass us?  I say no.  Miami?  Maybe, depending upon DWade's knees and Bosh's health.  Who's going to knock us off our perch?


.

Last year I bet this guy was saying Smart had no 3 point shot. Now he says that 33.5% is bad, but Smart will be okay if he shoots 37-38%.

Everybody who said last year that Smart had no jump shot found a way to say that his 33.5% rookie shooting (better than Wade or Westbrook ever had in a season) was no good.

Yeah, I hate it when people declare this team, THIS team was bad/mediocre last year, as if Rondo is still on the team dominating the ball.

At least I don't think he said that trading for 3.5 years of IT4 was a short-term (half season) gain, but long term loss.

The best player we lost from our 24-12 second half was Gigi Datome.

Jordan Mickey didn't even make his list of good new additions.

I found it an interesting read, though we all can find faults in it (perhaps some big ones).

what I want to see is this type of "pre-season" preview, written by others HERE.

I think we can all agree that most here have a better total understanding of the roster and perhaps the coaching staff than the "standard" sports writer trying to write about all NBA teams.

so how about it?

who's gonna be the first to do his/her Celtics' preview?

I might just have to take you up on that. My offseason energy/enthusiasm level is pretty high, and a season preview is the kind of structured format I should be using my passion for.

please do.

while I think I have a pretty good handle on players, as such I have done a breakdown of each players on the team for a few years in the past.

However my depth is lacking when it comes to coaching and things of that ilk, I fear.

so I am very interested in seeing what other members here think about this team heading into camp , in detail.

so open up those word doc programs and start writing those thoughts down, we won't all agree for sure but it should make for some interesting conversations.

Hi,
I think this upcoming season will be similar to the last season in terms of being transitional. Last season Celtics had 23 (if I'm not mistaken) players on their roster. Nowdays they have rather unbalanced roster which suggests some trades are coming.
Based on this I'd predict approx. the same result as the last season. But considering the following factors I'll go higher - 48-50 wins:
- addition of 2 experienced and skilled bigs (DL and AJ)
- progress of the guys like Smart, KO and Zeller
- progress of the coach
- a lot of practice time for IT with the current roster
- just because

AK

I don't know nearly enough to analyze this team, but I think: Olynyk will have a break-out year on O, and will hurt us less on D. What he needs more than anything, maybe more than most, is confidence. I can see him at SF occasionally, with good defenders like Johnson behind him to protect the drive.
Smart has pride and will force himself to improve all facets of his game. If there's such a thing as trying too hard, this guy's got it (and we need it!)
Sully and Bradley are under pressure to produce and one or the other will be gone this year. More likely Bradley goes, Sully stays.
Mickey and Hunter will work into Brad's deep rotation of 10 or more.The Cs will win 48-50 and Brad will get serious consideration for coach of the year. (And I'll win the lottery). Hurry up season! Hawk