Meditation on the state of the Celtics

I'm not sure I can call it a preview, and meditation sounds way cooler anyway.


If any NBA regular season was a tale of two seasons, it was the Boston Celtics last year. The team started 13-26, and finished 24-12. 33% to 66%, with five games of average ball in between the two streaks.

Central to that dramatic turnaround was the improvement in games decided by 5 points or less. The Celtics were 10-18 in close games before the All Star Break, and 17-10 in close games after ASB.

Young guys who only knew how to lose in the NBA suddenly learned how to win without Rondo and Green. It was as if they never learned the veteran lessons offered by Rondo and Green.

People often say that the difference between good teams and bad teams is the ability to win close games, to close the games out with wily veteran poise. It's very hard to learn how to win, once a losing culture sinks in. The Celtics were very much losers for the first half of the year. Close game after close game, the Celtics came up just short. Rondo and Green didn't pull through, time after time.

For several years now, teams like the Pistons have been expected to make the next step, and actually start playing winning basketball. And yet it doesn't happen. The Celtics were expected to fall into, and stay down in a loser's mentality for at least 2-3 years. That's the price of a rebuild, they say.

In the first half of the season, the tale of our close games was the tale of our season, consistently coming up short and not knowing how to close out close games. What we needed, most of all, was a hero super star who knew how to win games. Trade everybody for anybody who can make a clutch shot like Pierce. That was the mood among fans.

The one thing we wanted most, the ability to close out close games, was suddenly found within the guts of these quickly assembled Celtics.

Ability to win close games is indeed the difference between good teams and bad teams. And the Celtics newcomers are as accustomed to winning as the ones already on the roster. Amir Johnson, David Lee both accustomed to leading winning teams. The kind of teams that close out close games.

Maybe that elusive Ingredient X that separates winning teams from losing teams exists in the hearts of all gym rats, over-achievers, and dive-on-the-floor type heart and soul guys. Regardless, the Celtics have a multitude of proven clutch individual players, playing for a coach whose teams have consistently proven themselves in the clutch.

Maybe it's time to stop sleeping on Brad too. Losing doesn't happen on his watch, except for a bumpy rookie season that could have been a total disaster. Give Brad anything, and he'll find a way to over-perform, to consistently beat expectations, over and over again.

While the Celtics only played in four playoff games, they got 55 total regular season games that were nail-biters, within 5 points. And down the stretch, when many thought the Celtics should be throwing in the towel, they were thriving in playoff-like close games against other teams fighting for their playoff lives. Those games were like playoff games, because they WERE playoff games. A lot of teams lost those playoff games to us, and never got to the playoffs. Eliminated. Single Game Elimination.
The Celtics already have a ton of experience, and success, in high stakes, high pressure nail-biters, and the playoff experience itself. After the ASB, when some thought they should be tanking, the Celtics instead gained the experience of winning 18 close games, and the experience of losing another 10 close games. All of that experience, all of that character testing, character confirming, and character weeding out, was priceless.
Many teams flail around for years trying to build enough experience like that to develop winning skills. To become a winning franchise, rather than a dispirited loser like Detroit.

In short, the team that went 24-12 to finish the season got better. Significantly better.
At least on paper.
Expect the Celtics to continue to win a majority of their close games, and a majority of their games overall. The same guys who pulled through, over and over, are back, and the Celtics added five more winners.

Talent-wise, these Celtics don't grade out at the level of a Golden State, or a Cleveland, or a Houston, but they might be better than you think. Amir is an upgrade from Bass, Lee is a big upgrade from Gerald Wallace, and Rozier, Hunter, and Mickey are all sophisticated, impact basketball players, ready to make an impact as rookies. Way better than Chris Babb, Pressey, and Randolph

45-50 wins is the likely final record, but the Celtics are actually more likely to finish over 50 wins than under 45.
If that sounds unlikely, consider the impact that IT4 had on the Celtics last year. Expect an impact trade in January or Feb, if not sooner. It's coming, this rock solid team is going to get even better, and Brad's probably going to lead this year's version of the 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks.
So if the Celtics don't dominate the NBA right out of the gate, just sit tight for 3 more months, max. Re-enforcements are coming, and Danny is probably going to keep the Nets pick. And we probably are going to come right out of the gate winning basketball games. Unlike last year, these same guys have a full season together.

Comparison to 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks



RJ Hunter has Kyle Korver written all over his jump shot. Smart might very well be slightly better than Jeff Teague this season, and IT4 more than matches Dennis Schroeder's contributions off the bench. Jae Crowder is improving into DeMare Carroll, and might even start this year. David Lee is at least as good as Pero Antic, and probably better. Amir isn't as good as Al Horford, but he's a lot closer than Brandon Bass was.
Who can produce like Paul Millsap? Olynyk and Sullinger combined should more than match Millsap's production.
Then we just have wave after wave of talent.  Zeller, Bradley,  Rozier, Mickey, and then we have James Young and PJ3 to choose from.

Now knowing how to win, the Celtics can come out of the gate full steam ahead, both motivated and poised enough to play like the winning veterans they are, under their veteran playoff coach who was played by Gene Hackman in a little movie called Hoosiers.

Now we just need to find our Jimmy to join the team midseason.

rambone,

Nice work.  Original opinion piece that a lot of thought obviously went into.

When I saw the title I thought it had something to do with Meditations by Marcus Aurelius, whose various translations I have read and reread for years.  I even carry a copy on my phone.  I guess a Celtic version is in order here!

Regards

Great! My all time favorite movie!!! Terrific post

Rosalie

Thanks guys/girls.

thanks Rambone, hard to argue with most of what you wrote there. I also enjoyed seeing your thoughts put into one post, instead of two or more .Its easier for me to understand your entire thought process this way.

I certainly agree with your assessment that THIS years team STARTS not form a 40-42 team , but from the final team Ainge/Stevens assembled last year. Like you said, the team that was playing at a rate of 50 wins.

Amir > Bass- check
Lee > Wallace- big check
Rozier > Pressey- most likely long term at worst

the only thing I might quibble with would be some of the comparisons to the Hawks from last year, only on some of the individual matchings. I do agree that the Hawks model seems to be where Ainge and Stevens have been driving us.

of course we all agreed on everything , what would we talk about?