BURDEN OF PROOF: AN EVALUATION OF CELTICS MOTIVATION

WEEI

BEN ROHRBACH

Marcus Smart is raging against the trade machine. (Getty Images)

The best thing the Celtics have going for them is that just about everybody has a bit of added motivation to succeed in 2015-16. They have a lineup full of guys who need to prove themselves this season, and a coach capable of maximizing their talent.

Of course, problems could arise with so many individuals eyeing breakout seasons, especially when half the roster has no guaranteed salary beyond this winter. It will be a balancing act for both coach Brad Stevens and team president Danny Ainge, starting with a decision on exactly which of the 16 players under contract has to go.

Perry Jones III seems to be the most likely candidate to be cut, but that also makes him the man with the most to prove. In essence, he has everything on the line. As Ainge said, Jones does bring the sort of size and athleticism the C’s are sorely lacking, but barring a trade that frees up a roster spot, he’d have to submit an other-worldly preseason in order to avoid an ouster, if only out of contractual reasons.

That sets the bar for the sort of competition we can expect when training camp begins later this month, because Jones is far from the only one battling for playing time. So, let’s sort out, in order, who has the most riding on the 2015-16 season.

15. R.J. HUNTER

If there’s a comfortable seat on an NBA roster, Hunter has put his feet on the ottoman. As a late first-round pick, he does not face the same pressure as Terry Rozier, who was seen as a stretch at No. 16, and fellow rookie Jordan Mickey has some added scrutiny after signing a lucrative deal for a second-round selection.

Nestled into his prefixed contract on the rookie salary scale, Hunter performed admirably during summer league, demonstrating fundamental skill and awareness on both ends of the court. If our brief introduction to his talent was any indication, Hunter’s three seasons under his coaching father at Georgia State should translate to a higher spot on the wing depth chart than second-year pro James Young.

If instead he spends much of 2015-16 in the D-League, then so be it. No pressure.

14. ISAIAH THOMAS

Signed to a contract that declines to an annual salary of $6.26 million in 2017-18 -- keeping him under the C’s control for two seasons after the salary cap expansion -- Thomas is working under one of the most team-friendly deals in all the NBA. His friend Floyd Mayweather Jr. might not be so quiet if presented a similar situation.

The guy averaged 19.0 points, 5.4 assists and 2.1 rebounds in just 26 minutes a night after arriving in Boston last season, and he was the central figure in Cleveland’s defensive efforts to stop the Celtics during the playoffs last season.

Even if his numbers settle closer to his career averages of 15.6 points, 4.7 assists and 2.4 rebounds in 28 minutes per game, he’d still be a Sixth Man of the Year contender and well worth a salary less than both Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder.

13. JORDAN MICKEY

Granted, he signed the most lucrative rookie deal in second-round history, but Mickey’s still “only” making $1.17 million this year -- slightly more than Hunter.

The majority of second-round picks don’t even make 15-man rosters, so Mickey is greasing the wheels with gravy at this point. (Is that a saying? It is now.) The only pressure Mickey faces is living up to expectations after his performance in summer league, where he averaged 15.7 points, 10.1 boards and 3.1 blocks per 36 minutes.

12. AVERY BRADLEY

We know who Bradley is at this point. He’s an All-Defensive talent who knocks down mid-range jumpers and corner 3’s at an above-average rate on the other end. His backdoor cuts keep defenders honest, but he’s by no means creative off the dribble.

It’s safe to assume that’s what you’re going to get from Bradley, now that he’s five years into his NBA career. Is that worth $24.8 million over the next three seasons? Hell yeah, considering Iman Shumpert got four years and $40 million this summer.

11. TERRY ROZIER

Rozier carries quite a bit of hype entering his rookie season. Initially viewed as a stretch when the Celtics selected him at No. 16 -- especially with Marcus Smart already on the roster -- but the scouts seem to be coming around on the pick. They like his competitive streak and his scoring acumen, as Ainge did when he took him.

We’ll be watching closely players like Sam Dekker, Justin Anderson and Bobby Portis, who were taken soon after Rozier, and the Louisville product should be doing the same -- because the tide can turn again awful quick in the other direction.

10. JAE CROWDER

In 57 games for the Celtics, Crowder’s numbers doubled from his averages of 4.6 points and 2.3 rebounds over two-plus seasons in Dallas, and for that he was rewarded with a five-year, $35 million deal. So, yeah, there are expectations.

He was solid in most aspects, except for his 3-point shooting (28.2 percent on three attempts per game), and not particularly great in any one regard. His attitude was his greatest asset, helping to bring grit and balls back to a team that had lost both.

If Crowder proves capable of doing for the C’s what DeMarre Carroll did for Atlanta last season, he’d be a steal going forward, since Carroll got a four-year, $60 million deal from Toronto this summer. But we’re still evaluating him on a limited sample size and potential. He needs to meet those expectations. That Crowder falls so low on this list is a testament to the number of Celtics with so much left to prove.

9. KELLY OLYNYK

We could look at Olynyk’s success rate as a 7-footer attempting almost three 3-pointers per game as a positive sign. Only Dirk Nowitzki is better in that regard. Except, Dirk’s also the only other 7-footer who attempted as many 3’s per game.

Or we could look at how Brad Stevens treated Olynyk in the playoffs. His minutes were slashed because he could not be trusted on defense, and his own teammates basically admitted he was an ineffective rebounder during the Kevin Love fiasco.

Still, Olynyk has played well enough to equal his current value of $2.17 million and warrant the Celtics picking up his $3.09 million option in 2016-17, so he’s at least got some time to prove he’s anything more than a bit player on a middling team.

8. JONAS JEREBKO

There was an awkward moment during the press conference announcing the C’s offseason acquisitions, when team president Danny Ainge said, “Jonas is back for two more years,” before pausing, and then adding, “Well, at least one. We’ll see.”

Indeed, the second season of Jerebko’s two-year, $10 million extension is not guaranteed, so “the Swedish Larry Bird” should be motivated in 2015-16.

Jerebko had a nice run in Boston during the regular season, averaging 14.1 points and 9.6 boards per 36 minutes while shooting 40.6 percent from distance, but he was ineffective in the playoffs. He remains an intriguing option as a prototypical stretch 4 in Stevens’ system going forward. Although, even a strong season doesn’t guarantee his return in 2016-17, if the Celtics think his $5 million salary can be better spent elsewhere, but it’s always nice to have a guy playing for his next deal.

7. AMIR JOHNSON

Likewise, in exchange for the sizable pay raise Johnson received to leave Toronto, he agreed to a non-guaranteed $12 million salary in 2016-17, giving Ainge all sorts of flexibility. Our brief introduction to the 28-year-old doesn’t lead me to believe he’s the type to chill on a long-term deal, but a little extra incentive never hurts, either.

Whether Johnson is worth the $12 million he’s getting this season is another matter. Along with a reputation for protecting the rim at all costs, he brings career averages of 7.6 points, 5.7 boards and 1.1 blocks in 26.4 minutes a night. Those numbers have increased with more playing time over the past several years, and the C’s will have a year to decide whether his contributions merit the team’s second-highest salary.

6. DAVID LEE

As a 30-year-old veteran with two All-Star selections under his belt, Lee doesn’t have much to prove in a career that now also includes a championship ring.

But as a 30-year-old vet entering the final year of a six-year, $79.5 million deal, he needs to show there’s still enough left in the tank to warrant another big payday. And that’s where the Celtics should benefit most from his presence. Lee is in a contract year, and the last time that happened, he submitted career-high averages of 20.2 points, 11.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists on his way to his first All-Star appearance.

5. MARCUS SMART

Despite starting for a playoff team and establishing himself as one of the best defensive point guards in the league, Smart was left off the All-Rookie First Team. If that’s not motivation enough, the Celtics reportedly offered him in exchange for 76ers big man Nerlens Noel, and then took another point guard with their first pick.

Smart should be pissed, and he sure seemed that way during summer league, when he averaged 23.1 points, 6.1 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 3.5 steals per 36 minutes. If he can channel that aggression properly, man, it should pay dividends for the C’s.

4. TYLER ZELLER

Perhaps no player on the Celtics made greater strides under Stevens than Zeller. Remarkably efficient both around the basket and from mid-range, his numbers increased across the board. Also, Zeller’s fundamental understanding of ball movement and defensive schemes quietly made an impact on both ends of the floor.

He’ll likely decline a team-friendly contract extension offer from the Celtics by the Oct. 31 deadline in hopes of cashing in on a Zeller-friendly deal during restricted free agency next summer. After all, that’s usually how things work when skilled 7-footers hit the market at age 26. The only thing left to decide is just how much his value increases between now and then, and that’s entirely up to his performance.

3. EVAN TURNER

Celtics.com named Turner the team’s MVP last season, after he averaged 9.5 points, 5.1 assists and 4.6 rebounds as essentially the team’s starting point guard. Over the final 29 games, he submitted three triple-doubles, leading the C’s to a 20-9 record.

And, yet, outside of Jones, Turner seems the most likely candidate to be dealt in order to meet the 15-man roster requirement. His expiring $3.4 million contract could be an attractive commodity to a contending team in need of wing depth.

While Stevens maximized Turner’s talent, making him the facilitator he was in college, the C’s have little use for a ball-dominant veteran with Thomas, Smart and Rozier around. Turner also wasn’t all that efficient, turning the ball over at an alarming rate and submitting another sub-.500 true shooting percentage. If Ainge can sell high, that seems like the smart play, since he’s not long for Boston anyhow.

And if Turner sticks around, he’ll be playing for his basketball life. The former No. 2 overall pick took a relatively cheap two-year deal with the C’s in hopes of increasing his value after the 76ers and Pacers both gave up on him in a span of three months. But if he tumbles down the depth chart under Stevens, who did his best to resurrect Turner’s career, the soon-to-be 27-year-old faces a journeyman life in the game.

2. JAMES YOUNG

Where do we begin? If Young wasn’t still so, well, young, he’d be in danger of being cut one year removed from being drafted No. 17 overall last year -- the first pick from the C’s haul from the Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett trade to Brooklyn.

After scoffing at the notion of playing in the D-League on media day of his rookie year, Young proceeded to play almost twice as many minutes on the Red Claws in 2015-16 than he did with the Celtics. His averages in Maine were commendable, including a 44.2 percent clip from 3-point range, but they haven’t translated to the NBA. Need we remind you Fab Melo once posted a triple-double in Portland?

Young arrived at summer league with a self-professed maturity, but his production didn’t match his confidence, despite an increased energy on the court. A hip injury further limited his impact, keeping us all in the dark about his level of improvement.

The Celtics own affordable options on Young until he hits restricted free agency in 2018, so there’s no reason for them to panic. Young can’t afford to be as patient. If he doesn’t at least show signs of development this season, his job could be in jeopardy, since the C’s may have to make room for as many as four first-round picks in 2016.

1. JARED SULLINGER

It doesn’t appear Sullinger and the C’s will come to terms before the Oct. 31 contract extension deadline, and why should either side concede to the other’s demands?

From his perspective, the salary cap balloons $20 million in 2016, and he stands to make considerably more money than what the Celtics are currently offering, especially if he can piece together the type of season he’s proven capable of in stints.

As for the Celtics, if they can’t coerce Sullinger into signing a team-friendly extension now, it’s probably best to let him prove he’s worth a heftier long-term commitment next summer rather than offer him one before the season. In other words, prove it.

After all, Sullinger has yet to show he can meet the rigors of a full season. Since dropping to No. 21 in the 2012 NBA draft, he’s had one season-ending back surgery and nearly missed the final two months of this past season with a broken bone in his foot -- both the likely result of his lack of conditioning -- and that doesn’t include his penalties for a domestic violence arrest in 2013 and tardiness this past February.

Sullinger’s career 36-minute averages of 16.2 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists are rather impressive, except for the fact he’s never actually averaged 36 minutes. He’s spent the summer documenting his workout routine on social media, and if he can’t meet the demands of a quality NBA starter in a contract season, when will he? And if he does increase his value in 2015-16, then what’s the harm in paying him what he’s worth, even if it’s a few million more annually, after he’s proven worthy?

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First of all, David Lee is 32, not 30.

This talk about "motivation" seems like an attempt to create an angle that doesn't need one. Almost every player on every team in every sport has motivation. All-stars want to be an all-star again, champions want to be champions again, starters want to become all-stars, bench players want to start, there is no shortage of motivations that don't have anything to do with money.

So, Young can't be complacent because the Celtics have 4 picks next year but he has the edge over PJ3? The money Danny got from OKC to pay for Jones could just as easily be used to buy out Young, or sent along with Young to another team so they can take a free look at him like OKC did for us with Jones. Furthermore, next year is the first of two team option years on James Young. So, at the end of this year they could simply not pick up his option and he's gone. Rohrbach talks about his restricted free agency and completely missed those team option years that let the Celtics drop him, and make room for those 2016 draft picks.

"Sullinger’s career 36-minute averages of 16.2 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists are rather impressive, except for the fact he’s never actually averaged 36 minutes." How many players actually do average 36mpg? Even a lot of starters play less than that. The /36mpg metric is for comparison purposes precisely because not every player plays the same number of minutes, so you normalize the comparison around a single standard. Rohrbach doesn't understand that?

I agree what he says about Bradley. After all the salary cap talk when Bradley signed his contract and "oh my God, Danny, what were you thinking giving him that much!" it turns out he's cheap at that price. What this has to do with his motivation, which is what this article is supposed to be flitting about, I have no idea.


bob


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I didn't know that Ainge offered Smart for Noel!

I've liked Noel and would love to see him here with this team, but not sure I would give up Smart for him even up.

bob

 The answer to your question as to the number of players that actually play 36 minutes is, at least for this past year,  only 6 out of about 450 players.  Like you point out, using 36 minutes as the standard can be very misleading since very few players ever average that many minutes in a game. Below link list the 6 players.  

http://bkref.com/tiny/5bCpi

swish

swish wrote:bob

 The answer to your question as to the number of players that actually play 36 minutes is, at least for this past year,  only 6 out of about 450 players.  Like you point out, using 36 minutes as the standard can be very misleading since very few players ever average that many minutes in a game. Below link list the 6 players.  

http://bkref.com/tiny/5bCpi

swish

swish,

You're right, there aren't many.  They tend to be the all-stars/superstars, who are just so much better than their bench or the other teams' starters or bench you just have to ride them like a horse until they drop or look like a fool.

When I'm using /36mpg I try to remember how many minutes they actually average.  So, a player who averages 32mpg might be just fine at 36mpg, if the coach upped their minutes, but a player who normally plays 22mpg will almost certainly either run out of gas by the 36 minute mark because they're not used to that much game time, or their numbers will start to fall because at some point in those 36 minutes they will be facing the other team's starter (and anybody normally averaging 22mpg is not a starter).  Heavy minutes vs heavy minutes, sure, /36mpg comparisons make sense but heavy minutes vs light minutes then no.  Kelly is averaging 21mpg for his career, 22mpg last year.  Nowitski is averaging 35.5mpg for his career and played 30mpg last year at age 35.  People talk about Kelly being Dirk 2.0, I myself have used that nickname, but you can't say that other than that he has similar skills and has stolen some moves from Dirk (like his wrong legged fadeaway from the paint) "LOOK!!  Kelly's playing at Dirk's level!!"  I'd have to see the mpg numbers being much closer.  If Dirk plays 30mpg this year and Kelly gets up to 27mpg then I might say we can compare Dirk to Kelly on a /36mpg basis or on a /100 possessions basis (yeah, Dirk at 35 vs Kelly at 24).



bob



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Bob

I agree with you 100% in your assessment of the use of 36 minutes. By the way, 1800 minutes played per year will roughly point out the 5 starters on a club.

swish

swish wrote:Bob

I agree with you 100% in your assessment of the use of 36 minutes. By the way, 1800 minutes played per year will roughly point out the 5 starters on a club.

swish

swish,

Not sure I'm completely on-board with your last sentence.  Injuries might limit the total number of minutes a player plays to less than 1800.  If you play 75 games, sitting out 7 due to injury or rest, then 1800 minutes would translate into 24mpg.  

Dwight Howard, clearly a starter, only played 1223 minutes last year because he only played in 41 games.  That comes out to 29.8mpg, so he played fairly heavy minutes/game, he just played half a season's worth.  Andrew Bogut, another starter, played 1583 minutes last year, playing in 67 games and starting 65 of them for 23.6mpg.  Not that many more than Kelly, who played 1423 minutes last year over 64 games, starting in only 13 and averaged 22.2mpg.  The year before last Bogut played in 67 games, started in all 67, and played 1769 minutes.  That's 26.4mpg, which is solid rotation player minutes but not usually considered "starter minutes".

Jae Crowder played 1382 minutes for Boston last year (not many with Dallas, but that's why they moved him) in 57 games of which he started only 17.  That's 24.2mpg, more than starter Bogut played and close to what bench player Kelly played, and I suspect he'll play even more this year off the bench.

mpg tell me who is being relied upon to be a team leader.  Total minutes might be that, but it might also just be an indication of who is healthy and available.


bob



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bob

I'll amend my statement from the 5 starters to the 5 players that played the most minutes. Like you point out, it omits those high minutes per game players who missed many games because of injuries. I only use it to determine what the norm is to be considered a top 5 on a club in any given year. It falls in line with the principle of having to have a minimum of games, etc. played to be rated on the leader board charts.

swish