Marcus Smart’s closest comparison is James Harden, says Nate Silver’s projection algorithm

http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball/celtics/2015/10/11/marcus-smart-closest-comparison-james-harden-says-nate-silver-projection-algorithm/LJzb4Hk5khh2iUs2u8064I/story.html?s_campaign=bcom%3Asocialflow%3Atwitter



Marcus Smart’s closest comparison is James Harden, says Nate Silver’s projection algorithm




MADRID, SPAIN - OCTOBER 08: Marcus Smart of Boston Celtics gives instructions to his teammates during the friendlies of the NBA Global Games 2015 basketball match between Real Madrid and Boston Celtics at Barclaycard Center on October 8, 2015 in Madrid, Spain. (Photo by Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno/Getty Images)




By Nik DeCosta-Klipa @NikDeCostaKlipa
Boston.com Staff | 10.11.15 | 3:41 PM



It’s fair to say that Boston Celtics fans should be thrilled if Marcus Smart’s career turns out anything like James Harden’s.

But Harden’s All-NBA career is actually a likely scenario for Boston’s second-year point guard, according to Nate Silver’s NBA career forecasting algorithm.

CARMELO, Silver’s new “PECOTA for basketball,” predicts the career arc of NBA players based on the performance trajectory of similar players in league history, according to FiveThirtyEight. In a post this week, the algorithm found Smart’s “most comparable player” to be Harden, followed by Paul George and Jason Richardson.

(Smart’s fourth and fifth most comparable counterparts, perhaps less alluring for Celtics fans, were Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Vladmir Radmonovic, according to CARMELO.)

A “defensive menace,” Smart is perhaps already outpacing the 2014-2015 league MVP runner-up on one end of the floor. Though it‘s worth noting that Smart’s projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) never even peaks above single digits—nowhere near Harden’s league-best WAR of 20.63 last season.

In other promising news for Celtics fans, FiveThirtyEight predicted Boston to go 48-34 in the 2015-2016 season, noting the team’s 24-12 finish last season and the additions of David Lee and Amir Johnson. An eight-game improvement from the previous season, 48 wins would have been good enough for the five-seed in the 2015 Eastern Conference playoffs.

If Silver’s past forecasts are any measure, the Celtics’ near future looks to be a bright shade of green.



bob
MY NOTE: I posted a thread about fivethirtyeight.com's predictions but I missed the comparison to Harden. If this was just coming from a sportscaster or from Especially Sad & Pathetic Network I would laugh it off but Nate Silver is a very high quality statistician. Personally, I'm hard pressed to see how Smart will ever shoot like Harden but we'll see. Still, it's a happy thought to start the season with.


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Bobh,
Thanks for the interesting bit.
Do you know if this Nate Silver is related to Adam? If yes, I'd be much happier for Smart, if you know what I mean
And agree about Smart's shooting. Thou, what he showed in summer league looks like a progress in the right direction.

AK

sinus007 wrote:Bobh,
Thanks for the interesting bit.
Do you know if this Nate Silver is related to Adam? If yes, I'd be much happier for Smart, if you know what I mean
And agree about Smart's shooting. Thou, what he showed in summer league looks like a progress in the right direction.

AK

sinus,

I can find no reference between Nate and Adam Silver. Like John Madison and Ashley Madison.


bob



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If they were related, they wouldn't necessarily admit it. Let's see Nate show some stats about star fouls, or consistently suspicious referees.