Is Jared Sullinger a Long-Term Solution for the Celtics?

by **bobheckler** Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:37 pm

http://www.todaysfastbreak.com/nba-east/atlantic/boston-celtics/jared-sullinger-long-term-solution-celtics/

Is Jared Sullinger a Long-Term Solution for the Celtics?

Matthew Schmidt MATTHEW SCHMIDT

Is Jared Sullinger a Long-Term Solution for the Celtics? 450m67150103004_Celtics_at_Bulls1-800x600

CHRIS SWEDA/ZUMA PRESS/ICON SPORTSWIRE

The Boston Celtics will face one of their toughest decisions since the Paul Pierce-Kevin Garnett trade next summer: whether or not they should re-sign Jared Sullinger.

Sullinger will be a restricted free agent during the 2016 offseason, meaning the Celtics can match any offer that is made to the 23-year-old. The question is, what kind of offers will the big man be getting?

Sullinger is now in his fourth season and has flashed considerable talent. Those who have watched him cannot deny that.

He has great touch and range on his jumper, good post moves, he is an outstanding passer, a tremendous rebounder and a good post defender due to his size and strength.

The Ohio State product can be the most dominant player on the floor at times.

However, he is also has his share of deficiencies.

He doesn’t get to the free-throw line, he isn’t long or athletic enough to contest shots at the rim, he has conditioning issues and, perhaps most important of all, he has had some injury problems.

Remember: the reason why Sullinger even fell to Boston at No. 21 during the 2012 draft was because teams were worried about his troublesome back.

Sure enough, Sullinger was forced to undergo back surgery halfway through his rookie season. His back hasn’t given him any issues since then, but there is no doubt it is a concern, especially taking into consideration his weight.

Sullinger did miss a sizeable chunk of the 2014-15 campaign, however, thanks to a foot injury that required surgery.

So, the 6’9″ forward already has two surgeries under his belt in three-plus years of professional experience.

That’s definitely worrisome.

November 4, 2015: Indiana Pacers forward Lavoy Allen (5) shoots over Boston Celtics forward Jared Sullinger (7) during a NBA game between the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)
Is Sullinger worth a long-term investment for the Celtics? (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)

The contract offers Sullinger gets are going to come down to risk versus reward. Are there ballclubs out there that would pay significant money for his talent in the hope that he can get in shape and stay healthy?

A player to keep in mind here is Tristan Thompson. Not because Sullinger and Thompson are similar players in terms of style or health, but because they are both power forwards, and Thompson just earned himself a five-year, $82 million deal from the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Now, by all accounts, Sullinger is probably a better all-around player than Thompson. Thompson is essentially a rebounder and energy guy while Sullinger can represent a concrete offensive option.

This isn’t to say that Sullinger will get $82 million, but you have to think that he and his people will use Thompson’s contract as a barometer in determining his worth.

That could mean something like a four-year, $60 million deal, and that could prove too steep of a price for the C’s to pay.

Here’s the problem, though: Sullinger is clearly the Celtics’ best and most talented big man. If they let him walk, they are basically resigning themselves to the fact that they must promptly find a consistently productive big with potential to replace him. That could mean through a draft pick or through a trade, but no matter what method the Celtics decide to use, it would have to be done. They absolutely cannot go into the 2016-17 season with Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan Mickey and potentially Tyler Zeller (also a restricted free agent next summer) as their only interior players.

There had better be a Plan B in place.

At the same time, you could hardly blame Danny Ainge and Co. if they decide that $15 million annually for a player who missed two huge chunks of time over his first three seasons is too rich for their blood.

Of course, this could also come down to just how well Sullinger plays for the rest of the year.

Right now, he is playing very well. He is averaging 10.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in 25.1 minutes. He has a total rebound percentage of 20.3 percent, good for sixth in the league, and even ranks seventh in defensive rating and 12th in defensive win shares.

Finally, he is recording .180 win shares per 48 minutes.

There will also likely be an improvement in his field-goal percentage of 44.6 percent. The reason is because he is currently shooting just 50 percent at the rim, which is well below his career average of 61 percent. That number will likely progress toward the mean, which will result in a more efficient field-goal percentage overall.

As you can see, Sullinger is bringing it so far this season, and his performance has surely caught the attention of Celtics brass.

But, the caveat is that he is only playing 25.1 minutes. If he were to play 30-35 minutes, would his statistics begin to dip due to fatigue? Conditioning has always been an issue with Sullinger, so it’s only right to assume that he would begin to tire out if he were playing more minutes.

It’s a pickle, I tell you.

Re-signing a young player who is already producing at that level would seem like a no-brainer on the surface, especially if the market value has already been set at about $16 million a year by a guy who is probably an inferior player to Sullinger.

It’s not that easy, though.

Nov. 19, 2015 - Cleveland, OH, USA - The Cleveland Cavaliers' Matthew Dellavedova ( and Tristan Thompson talk after a timeout in the first quarter of the game against Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday, Nov. 19, 2015, at Quicken Loan Arena in Cleveland (Photo by Mike Cardew/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)
Will Sullinger look at Thompson’s deal for comparison? (Photo by Mike Cardew/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)

The Cavaliers are trying to win a title, so they can kind of “afford” to overpay for Thompson. Is Thompson worth $82 million in a vacuum? Almost certainly not, but Cleveland is in a position where it essentially has to spend money right now.

That’s the difference.

The Celtics aren’t in that spot. They are a rebuilding team that is still a long way away from seriously challenging for a championship, so they need to make sure that they are allocating their resources appropriately.

Yes, I get that the cap is increasing, but that still doesn’t mean you should spend carelessly. The last thing you want to do is jeopardize your chances of landing a max-level player because you gave top dollar to a No. 3 option.

So, should Boston invest in Sullinger long term?

Not to give a copout answer, but it ultimately depends on what type of contract he gets offered. If all the C’s have to do is match a four-year, $44 million offer, they should absolutely pull the trigger. However, that probably won’t be the case.

There will almost surely be some team that comes along and offers Sullinger around $15 million annually, if not more, and if that happens, the Celtics may have no choice but to walk away.

You can’t place that many eggs in such a flimsy basket. You don’t know if Sullinger is going to stay healthy, and you don’t know how his weight is going to affect him down the line.

If you told me right now that Sullinger would avoid injury and be able to give you 30 minutes a night without wheezing, I would say it would be in Boston’s best interest to retain him, but you can’t guarantee either of those things.

This is hardly a knock on Sullinger as a player, because he is unequivocally talented, but talent is not the only factor that comes into play.

If he isn’t able to stay on the floor, what good is his talent?

Don’t even discount the possibility of Ainge shopping Sullinger at the trade deadline, and if that happens, then the writing is on the wall.

bob
MY NOTE: Sully is playing great right now, he's back to where he was before he got fat and fell in love with the 3. HOWEVER, Danny does not like players who will not commit and Sully refused an extension, just like Rondo did. Based upon past history, if Danny is looking at Sully walking away and Danny getting nothing for him this offseason I would not be the smallest, tiniest, most infinitesimally miniscule bit surprised if Sully is gone by the trade deadline. His trade value is probably never going to be higher than it is right now.

.

by **dboss** Wed Dec 02, 2015 1:49 pm

I thought he was a restricted free agent?

by **dboss** Wed Dec 02, 2015 1:52 pm

Also, Next year I would be really surprised if both Lee and Johnson are on the team so if one of them is gone it would free up enough money pay sully if they actually want to keep him.

by **Outside** Wed Dec 02, 2015 3:45 pm

dboss wrote:I thought he was a restricted free agent?

HoopsHype shows him as being restricted. He's number 49 on this list.

http://hoopshype.com/2015/08/15/nba-free-agency-2016-the-top-players/

by **swish** Wed Dec 02, 2015 5:21 pm

When its time to talk turkey at seasons end will Danny want him and at what price? With 64 games left in the regular season the question is what will his VALUE be in JUNE. Until then its good conversation but very speculative. Will it be bust or all nba or somewhere in between ?

swish

by **Matty** Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:29 pm

If Danny has the slightest inclination that he can't resign sully at a price Danny wants then sully will be gone well before f/A's opening day...

Just ask rondo.

by **wide clyde** Thu Dec 03, 2015 5:34 am

Because Sullinger is going to be a restricted free agent next summer the Cs will only have to give him a one year contract as I understand (and, usually not very well) his free agency situation in order to keep him for one more year if they will match his salary.

So, say someone offers him a 50 M, four year deal the Cs only have to offer him whatever the average is for the 2016-17 season. If he plays well all year now, he will be worth the 12.5, and he plays one more year before hitting complete free agency.

Correct me if I am wrong, please.

by **Outside** Thu Dec 03, 2015 10:39 am

wide clyde,

I don't think that is correct. The "one year" provision applies to the qualifying offer from the Celtics. If another team offers him a four-year. $50 million contract and the Celtics want to keep him, they have to accept him at the contract that the other team offered -- for the full four years and the $50 million. They can't keep him for one year at $12.5 million.

The way he would become an unrestricted free agent is if he accepts the Celtics' one-year qualifying offer. He'd then become an unrestricted free agent after that year. But if he signs an offer from another team, that "one year" situation no longer applies.

From Larry Coon's NBA FAQ (bold emphasis mine):

44. What is restricted free agency?

There are two types of free agency: unrestricted and restricted. An unrestricted free agent is free to sign with any other team, and there's nothing the player's original team can do to prevent it. Restricted free agency gives the player's original team the right to keep the player by matching a contract the player signs with another team. This is called the "right of first refusal."

Restricted free agency exists only on a limited basis. It is allowed following the fourth year of rookie "scale" contracts for first round draft picks (see question number 49). It is also allowed for all veteran free agents who have been in the league three or fewer seasons. However, a first round draft pick becomes an unrestricted free agent following his second or third season if his team does not exercise its option to extend his rookie scale contract for the next season. All other free agency is limited to unrestricted free agency.

In order to make their free agent a restricted free agent, a team must submit a qualifying offer to the player between the day following the last game of the NBA Finals and June 30. The qualifying offer is a standing offer for a one-year guaranteed contract, which becomes a regular contact if the player decides to sign it. This ensures that the team does not gain the right of first refusal without offering a contract themselves. The amount of the qualifying offer for players on rookie "scale" contracts is based on the player's draft position. The qualifying offer for all other players must be for 125% of the player's previous salary, or the player's minimum salary (see question number 16) plus $200,000, whichever is greater. However, a player may qualify for a higher or lower qualifying offer based on whether or not he met the "starter criteria" in the previous season, or in the average of the previous two seasons. The starter criteria are based on starting 41 games or playing at least 2,000 minutes in the regular season1.

...

A player can elect to accept his qualifying offer and play the following season under its terms. This is sometimes done in order to become an unrestricted free agent the following summer (see question number 46).

When a restricted free agent wants to sign with another team, the player and team sign an offer sheet, the principal terms of which the original team is given three days to match. The offer sheet must be for at least two seasons (not including option years). If the player's prior team also submitted a maximum qualifying offer, then the offer sheet must be for at least three seasons (not including option years). If the player's original team exercises its right of first refusal within three days, the player is then under contract to his original team, at the principal terms of the offer sheet (but not the non-principal terms). If the player's original team does not exercise its right of first refusal within three days (or provides written notice that it is declining its right of first refusal), the offer sheet becomes an official contract with the new team.

There's more, but I think that covers the question you raised. The NBA FAQ is an indispensable resource for this kind of stuff.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q44

by **wide clyde** Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:47 am

Outside,

Thanks for the correction. Did I mention that I know very little about most things.

I guess that the rule as stated is much more fair to the player, and that is understandable.

by **k_j_88** Thu Dec 03, 2015 5:06 pm

Sullinger looks primed to be traded. Just a hunch.

KJ

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