Jamal Murray Vs CJ McCollum: Stat Comparison

by **arambone** Wed Apr 06, 2016 7:09 am

I improved the visuals for my stat comparison video series. Murray's shooting numbers for a freshman were off-the-charts good. In conference play he shot about as many 3s per game as Heild, while matching Heild's 44% shooting from 3. Murray also almost matched Hield's effective FG% and true shooting % in conference play.

by **kdp59** Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:11 am

thanks for the video, rambone.

I think Murray will go ahead of Hield come draft day myself. his youth and ability to "possibly" play both guard spots should set him apart.

here's a link to ESPN's current top 30 (typically on pay per view at ESPN)

http://www.aseaofblue.com/2016/4/5/11370736/nba-draft-rankings-2016-espn-ranks-top-30-prospects

a couple of notes:

Ford has Ellenson at #6. Ellenson has been compared to K. Love by some ( I don't think he's that good) and Ainge scouted him a few months ago.....GULP!

My guy J. Brown Ford has at #9 now.

Thon Maker makes his list (for now) at #20.

Ford is one of the few guys that has Big man Thomas Bryant from Indiana coming out this year and has him at #26.

Finally the 7-2 Frenchman Jeanne is at #27....all 200 # of him. (good pick with our third first for a draft and stash, IMO).

I

by **arambone** Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:42 am

Thanks, KDP. The more I look into Murray, the more amazed I get.

I compared him to a smaller Penny Hardaway last summer, but then backed off a bit when Murray came out of the gate a little slow at Kentucky.

It's amazing how powerful first impressions can be when the college basketball season starts. Anybody who comes out of the gate on fire gets over-hyped at least a little, and anybody who comes out of the gate a bit cold gets under-rated, at least a little.

But if Murray had started his season a bit hotter, and if the basketball world wasn't suffering from a bit of Kentucky fatigue, I think Murray would be all the rage right now.

I'm guessing that he's going to have a better NBA career than Ben Simmons, from day one and ever after. Maybe he won't have as many triple doubles as Simmons, but he'll be a better all around and overall scorer, on better efficiency, with better advanced team stats like on court/off court and +/-.

I'm seriously starting to think Murray is a clear notch above CJ McCollum.

Steph Curry is the only college player I could find who had a better shooting freshman season than Murray. Murray even edges out Durant in True Shooting, Effective FG%, 3 point %, and basically shot the same from 2 point land.

I'm starting to think that a slightly poor version of Steph Curry is Murray's upside. Murray's stated goal, as told by his father two days ago, is to be the best player ever. So I think Murray sees that Steph Curry comparison as well.

Let's just look at what Murray has done in the last 9 months:

MVP of the Nike Hoops Summit, in a game featuring Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, and every other top prospect.

Then he plays some international ball with Team Canada in the Pan American Games, and he leads Canada to a win over the US:

Then he goes to Kentucky and puts up the best shooting season by a freshman since Durant and Steph Curry.

The kid is simply a GAMER. Pure shooter, super-consistent, even keeled, and clutch. He might be as good as CJ McCollum next year, or the year after anyway.

I know our Celtics have a ton of guards already, and I like them all, but I still see a place for Murray on the team.

Long-term, IT's contract only has two more years, as does Bradley's, as does Smart's.

Short-term, Evan Turner's contract is up, and Murray could bring what Turner does, plus a lot more. Smart is strong enough and long enough that he can play most of his minutes at SF if it came to it, and Crowder has the versatility to play minutes at PF. Also, Hunter has the length to play SF, and if he can gain a few pounds he can thrive there at least against some/most matchups.

This team is desperate for an elite shooter, and Murray couldn't have shown us more in the last 9 months.

Even if Murray comes off the bench, he could compete for 6th man of the year as a 19-20 year old rookie.

There's really only a handful of more talented shooters in the NBA, and probably less than that.

by **bobheckler** Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:23 am

arambone and kdp,

I think you two are made for each other. arambone the video coordinator and scout, kdp the GM. Perfect. Me? I'm the guy who knows he needs to know about college players, to become more educated for the draft, but doesn't enjoy watching college games so I can develop my own knowledge-base.

Great work on the videos, arambone. They are GREAT value-adds to this forum and is a niche that nobody else has filled. Thanks. Stuff like this not only helps to focus on college players, for the draft, but also as we approach the trade deadline and the rumors are flying about who may be coming in and/or going out. What are we gaining, what are we losing?

bob

.

by **arambone** Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:42 am

Thanks a lot Bob. Yeah, I should expand into Celtic-centric videos too. I could even create a different channel, so the general public doesn't know what a Celtics homer I am. Lots of Laker fans commented on my Brandon Ingram video, and I didn't let them know I'm a Celtics fan and the Lakers might not even have a pick.

Now that I have the graphics template improved, I can crank these out pretty easily.

Next Up:
Poeltl Vs Bogut (both played at Utah. Poeltl is no Bogut).
Skal Vs Channing Frye
Jalen Brown Vs Aaron Gordon
Buddy Hield Vs ... Redick?

by **kdp59** Wed Apr 06, 2016 12:36 pm

Rambone,

do you consider Brown a comparison to Gordon?

I have seen him compared to Jimmy Butler, Stanley johnson and Jason Richardson.

I can see all the other comparisons you listed, but was curious about your thoughts on the J. Brown one.

by **arambone** Wed Apr 06, 2016 2:38 pm

I'm skeptical that Brown is as good a prospect as Gordon, because Gordon is a really nice passer and ball handler. Brown seems to be a sub-par passer and questionable decision maker.

Gordon is a hybrid forward, SF/PF. Brown is 2 inches shorter than Gordon, but is stronger/more thickly built. He also has a longer wingspan than Gordon, and they both have an 8'9" standing reach, or same as Blake Griffin. Sullinger's standing reach was 8'9.5" and that was before he had a vertebrae removed. Jordan Mickey is 235 lbs, with an 8'10" standing reach.
Jae Crowder's standing reach is under 8'7", or 2+" lower than Brown's. And Crowder is considered a hybrid forward. And Brown jumps a lot higher/quicker than Crowder.

Brown weighed in at 225 last fall. 230 by Combine is very possible. And that's at 19 years old. Aaron Gordon weighed 220 at his Combine, and was lighter during his college season.

Brown isn't highly skilled like a shooting guard. His ball handling, passing, and shooting are all below average. For a small forward he's solid with room to become above average. For a power forward, now you're talking some mismatch potential in smaller lineups.

I'm not sure Brown has the stout lower body to bang against full sized PFs in the NBA, and those same questions haunt Aaron Gordon. They're both high flying, versatile role players with tantalizing upside. Gordon, like Brown, could guard SGs just fine.

Gordon not only was a better passer and ball handler at Brown's age, but he also had a fully developed defensive stopper mentality. Brown has the physical tools, but lags behind a bit in that mentality.

So unless Brown's extra strength gives him a notable edge over Gordon, Brown probably ranks a notch below Gordon as a prospect. Neither are cut out for full time PF, but they both can do it in stints against certain matchups, like Crowder.

by **bobheckler** Wed Apr 06, 2016 2:46 pm

arambone wrote:I'm skeptical that Brown is as good a prospect as Gordon, because Gordon is a really nice passer and ball handler. Brown seems to be a sub-par passer and questionable decision maker.

Gordon is a hybrid forward, SF/PF. Brown is 2 inches shorter than Gordon, but is stronger/more thickly built. He also has a longer wingspan than Gordon, and they both have an 8'9" standing reach, or same as Blake Griffin. Sullinger's standing reach was 8'9.5" and that was before he had a vertebrae removed. Jordan Mickey is 235 lbs, with an 8'10" standing reach.
Jae Crowder's standing reach is under 8'7", or 2+" lower than Brown's. And Crowder is considered a hybrid forward. And Brown jumps a lot higher/quicker than Crowder.

Brown weighed in at 225 last fall. 230 by Combine is very possible. And that's at 19 years old. Aaron Gordon weighed 220 at his Combine, and was lighter during his college season.

Brown isn't highly skilled like a shooting guard. His ball handling, passing, and shooting are all below average. For a small forward he's solid with room to become above average. For a power forward, now you're talking some mismatch potential in smaller lineups.

I'm not sure Brown has the stout lower body to bang against full sized PFs in the NBA, and those same questions haunt Aaron Gordon. They're both high flying, versatile role players with tantalizing upside. Gordon, like Brown, could guard SGs just fine.

Gordon not only was a better passer and ball handler at Brown's age, but he also had a fully developed defensive stopper mentality. Brown has the physical tools, but lags behind a bit in that mentality.

So unless Brown's extra strength gives him a notable edge over Gordon, Brown probably ranks a notch below Gordon as a prospect. Neither are cut out for full time PF, but they both can do it in stints against certain matchups, like Crowder.

rambone,

The key to "pace-and-space" is ball and player movement, and outside shooting. That means passing skills are needed by just about every player from point guard to center as well as the ability to be a threat from mid-range at the minimum, but preferably out to 3, to open the floor for the player and ball movement.

You are saying that Brown isn't a good passer. Wouldn't that suggest that he would not be a good fit for Brad's offense?

bob

.

by **arambone** Wed Apr 06, 2016 3:33 pm

Correct Bob, not ideal. Although Crowder is evidence that such players can improve their 3 point shooting dramatically, I'd be a bit hesitant to draft Brown in the top 4.

There's also the obvious fact that we already have Crowder, who has played like a borderline-all star (or just below) this year.

Honestly Ben Simmons doesn't fit great into our system either. He's not tough enough to be a full time PF, and at SF he's just a taller Evan Turner.

Both Simmons and Brown, if surrounded by 4 shooters, could be really good at SF for us, scoring inside. Kind of like how Evan Turner is usually surrounded by 4 shooters and does his iso thing. But Brown is more explosive than Simmons, is a better defender, and has a much better attitude/head on his shoulders.

This is how my Draft top 5 (for the Celtics) looks at the moment:

1) Ingram
2a) Poeltl
2b) Jamal Murray
3a) Simmons
3b) Brown

Then everybody else below.

Poeltl, like Brown and Ingram, can't shoot 3s, but other than that he's really close to ideal for a modern center. He won't be a great man-to-man defender against huge centers right away, but he moves his feet probably better than Olynyk and Porzingis, with length in between those guys.

Poeltl can switch onto point guards, SGs, SFs, PFs, and Cs on any given play, over and over again. WCS got worshiped this time last year for being able to do the exact same thing.

Poeltl is also a good passer for a big, in addition to being an elite post scorer.

I think once workouts start, Poeltl will rise up the mock drafts, but more importantly, in the minds of front offices.

Most every player who plays in the Pac 12 gets slept on. Look at Kyle Anderson on the Spurs, or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson this past year.

And bigs always rise in the days/weeks before a draft. They're just such a scarcity, Especially in this draft.

Right now Poeltl is probably eating and lifting weights non stop. He'll weigh in at 250+ and answer a lot of questions that way.

Brandon Ingram is the one and only ideal prospect both in general and for the Celtics' system in particular.

by **kdp59** Wed Apr 06, 2016 4:41 pm

I meant do you think Brown is closer comparison to Gordon or the other players I mentioned.

I don't see the comparison to Gordon myself, but that doesn't mean anything per say.

I think the Jimmy Butler comparison is close, that is the Jimmy Butler that was drafted (#30) NOT the player he has become.

how would you compare Brown to Butler?

since you watch a lot of college ball I am curious at how you see it.

either way Brown and Poeitl both have some space to make up after below par NCAA's

by **arambone** Wed Apr 06, 2016 7:06 pm

Yeah I guess the Jimmy Butler comparison is pretty close, if Brown can develop his skills and consistency a lot. Brown probably won't ever be the passer, and probably won't develop that iron man consistency.

But Brown's wingspan is a dramatic 5" longer than Butler's so that helps him right there. And Brown's standing reach is 4.5" higher.

Plenty of potential to get excited about.

by **dboss** Thu Apr 07, 2016 8:43 am

arambone wrote:I improved the visuals for my stat comparison video series. Murray's shooting numbers for a freshman were off-the-charts good. In conference play he shot about as many 3s per game as Heild, while matching Heild's 44% shooting from 3. Murray also almost matched Hield's effective FG% and true shooting % in conference play.

They do not play in the same conference so I do not see how those stats matter. Both Ken and OK play in very competitive conferences but OK played in a stronger conference this year.

I think you should look at their overall stats in and out of conference

If you look at that Hield is a superior shooter at every level. He shot 45% from 3 point land, 50% FG % overall and 88% from the line.
Murray shot .408% from 3 and ,454% overall and .783% from the line

The other noticeable difference is that Hield has more range.

Don't get it twisted. Hield was clearly the better shooter over Murray this year.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/buddy-hield-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jamal-murray-1.html

The only way I could see Boston Drafting Murray is if Hield is already off the board.

Hield is picking up some significant hardware and i expect he will also win the John Wooden award as well

Hield wins the player of the year award http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/15125185/oklahoma-sooners-g-buddy-hield-named-naismith-player-year

Hield wins the Robertson award http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/15114439/buddy-hield-oklahoma-wins-oscar-robertson-trophy-beating-michigan-state-denzel-valentine

dboss

by **kdp59** Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:35 am

this is the great thing about the NBA draft...we have three people here with three different ideas about who would be the best player in the 4-6 range.

and we won't know for at least three years which player (s) turn out best.

Rambone likes Poeitl or Murray
I like Brown
dboos likes Hield

This draft in particular has a goup of solid players in this range for sure (after the top 2) and Danny (or any other GM) could go a lot of ways.

by **dboss** Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:22 pm

kdp59 wrote:this is the great thing about the NBA draft...we have three people here with three different ideas about who would be the best player in the 4-6 range.

and we won't know for at least three years which player (s) turn out best.

Rambone likes Poeitl or Murray
I like Brown
dboos likes Hield

This draft in particular has a goup of solid players in this range for sure (after the top 2) and Danny (or any other GM) could go a lot of ways.

kdp59

I actually like the kid Murray as well. He's a 1/2 but probably more a 2. He only generated 2 assists per game which may or may not reflect his PG skills but he can certainly shoot. Hield is the more physical player and should contribute from game 1 but Murray has the [potential as well to be a great player.

Poeitl is a player I also was checking out but he does not impress me and I would be shocked if he was drafted in the top 5-6. He may be somewhere in the 8-12 position. He does not shoot the three ball. He runs well and he can score, has average length. I think he would be a good BU center but a starting center/lotto pick...i don't think so

Brown has the physical tools that every team wants for a SF but he still has not proved that he can make outside shots. I would not draft any wing that is not an above average 3 point shooter. We need 3 point shooters more than anything else

One thing is for certain, this draft has some very impressive SG's.

dboss

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