Celtics vs Hawks Analysis

This will be a several part thread

The Celtics prize for winning their 48th and final regular season game of the season is a first round matchup with the Atlanta Hawks.

The Hawks beat the Celtics 3 out of 4 games played this year including a two game sweep over Boston in Atlanta and splitting the two games played in Boston.

There are many similarities between these teams.  They both play the pace and space game, both pride themselves on playing strong defense and both teams have finished the season with identical records.  Both teams have excellent coaches that have been able to maximize their ability to play well and win.  Their point differentials (PF and PA) practically mirror one another with the Hawks maintaining a slight edges at 3.6 to Boston’s 3.2

Despite these similarities there are also differences that provide each team with distinct advantages.

Our frontcourt vs their frontcourt

The Hawks have a better one two punch with Horford at center and Milsap at the forward positions.

Horford and Milsap each average around 32 MPG with Milsap leading their team in PPG, Rebounds, Block Shots and steals.  From an athletic point of view Amir and jared do not match up well against them.  Horford is a true stretch 5 and Milsap while not a good 3 point shooter has that uncanny ability to take his man off the dribble and score.  

Sullinger is too fat and too slow to check either one of them and Amir becomes less effective as a defender  further away from the paint .

We won the first game because we put up 103 shots to their 76 and we turned them over 16 times.

In game two they crushed us 121 to 97.  Amir had 4 points and 7 boards and Sully had 7 points and 5 rebounds.  Milsap had 25 and 9 and horford contributed 11 points and 4 rebounds.

Game 3 in Boston was more of the same as Milsap/Horfod  put up 41 points and 16 boards while Amir and Sullinger were again completely inept with 14 points and 11 rebounds between them.

In the 4th and final game there was more of the same.  Milsap killed us with 31 points and 16 rebounds and Horford scored 12 with 8 rebounds.  Sully was a dud playing only 11 minutes and scored 4 points with 1 rebound.  Amir played better with 14 points and 8 rebounds but you get the point.
 
Their starting front line is substantially better than ours.

As I noted in another thread our starting frontline are all part time players but when you go into the playoffs you usually see shorter rotations where guys are playing extended minutes.  Our guys may not be anymore effective with more minutes.  Our frontline bench of Jerebko, Ko and Zeller are all inconsistent at both ends.

Bottom line, The Hawks have a distinct advantage in their front court.  We must find a way to cover Milsap.

Possible Solution

Play Crowder at the 4 and Amir at the center.  Put Crowder on Milsap to provide a bit more speed.  Why make a drastic change now?  Because what we have been doing is not working.  They are planning for the same matchups so they would have to make an adjustment and we could steal game one.   The other thing I will mention is that Brad should have given Mickey more playing time during the regular season because he would also be an option to play Milsap.

Still to Come….the backcourt matchups and the benches

dboss

Heck put Smart on Milsap for short periods, he might try posting and shooting over him but the pit bull would make it difficult to get real open looks. Esp if we go small.

beat

Beat

I agree that Smart could check him out top and make it difficult for him to drive the ball but Smart does not have the length to check Milsap in the post.  Milsap is also a very strong player.   I think Boston could switch things up to confuse Milsap a bit where multiple players get a crack at him.  We saw what happen when Brad decided to start Smart in the OKC game and assign him to Durrant.  That did not work out so well.

The numbers are revealing.  If you cannot check Milsap you are not going to beat the Hawks.

dboss

Well, their records are 2-2 head to head with splits on the road. That says ATL in 7 but one slip up by ATL and a very hungry Celtics team could spell the Celtics in 6.

I'm even beginning to think DET will give CLE all they can handle. It's about time for another 8th seed to knock out a #1 seed. That would open up the door to the ECF with HC!

Let the wildly speculative second-guessing begin!!

db

My bad. Hawks were 3-1.

Usually, the regular season records tends to match the post season outcomes, but not always. They still have to play the games. This will be one of those times!

db

Part II Backcourt matchups

There was talk about trading Jeff Teague around the February trading deadline.  The Hawks decided to retain his services at least for this year.

Teague is a solid but not spectacular.  What he does really well is change pace with that hesitation dribble that allows him to blow by his man and keep the defender off balanced.  He is an above average 3 point shooter at .400% for the year but his defense does not scare anybody.  In 4 games against Boston he was like a yoyo.  He scored 24, 6, 16 and 6 points during the 4 meetings.  IT will be matched up with him and I expect Thomas to go at him real hard.  IT put up 16, 29, 14 and 23 in 4 games.  The edge in this matchup goes to IT.  He is a more dangerous scorer from anywhere on the court than Teague.

Kyle Korver (my wife says he looks like Ashley) I have no idea who she is referring to.  Kyle is playing the shooting guard.  As we all know Kyle is a streaky shooter.  As a matter of fact he has more streaks than a bad hairdo.  Against the Celts he has scored 5, 11, 15 and 11 points in the 4 games.  Our all world player Avery Bradley will be assigned to check him on the perimeter.  Avery has scored 15, 4, 25 and also had a DNP in November.  The advantage goes to AB because not only is he going to outscore Korver he is going to impact the game at the defensive end.  On the other hand Korver could not check my grandmother.  (A Jamaican women who passed away in 1987 at age 100 and as I recall would use a lot of spices when she cooked) Oh mon!  Advantage Bradley.

The Small forward spots should be a competitive battle between Bazmore and Crowder.  Bazmore really looks a lot like a young Cassius Clay (rumble young man rumble).  He scored  21, 15, DNP and 12 Vs Crowder who scored 9, 24, 6 and 13 points.  Crowder is the better defender and Bazmore adds top end spend to the Hawks fast break and uptempo game.  Bazmore can swing between the 2 and 3 while Crowder plays both the 3 and 4.  Advantage Crowder but only by a nose.

I have to talk about the respective benches now.

Speaking of streaks I liked  Dennis Schroder before the draft a few years ago.  I would say that he is definitely one of the better BU point guards in the league.  He’s quick and can also make outside shots.  He will most likely see a lot of Marcus Smart in his grill.  I did not recall this but Marcus did not play in 2 games this year against the Hawks.  His numbers were 19, DNP, DNP and 5.  Marcus is still searching for his offense but his defense is a real game changer.  Advantage Marcus.

Other Notables include Thabo Sefolosha who is primarily a defensive minder SF and Mike Scott the unde sized PF and Kris Humphries who was added to fill the Splitter vacancy due to injury.

The Celtics will Counter with Evan Turner and there is really no one on the Hawks that can check him.

KO, Zeller and Jerebko will play but no ones knows when or how many minutes as brad Stevens has yoyo’d them in and out of games all year long.

Rosier should also get some BU minutes at the point and we will need him to help out on both Teague and Schroder because IT is a poor defender.

Coaching goes to Bud because he has 20 years of experience with the Spurs and therefore a lot more knowledge of playoff basketball. But brad will coach well enough to steal a game and push the series to the end.

Final result Boston wins the series 4-3 including a surprising win in Game one to turn the series upside down.  A healthy Marcus Smart for an entire series will be the difference maker.  Bottom line is that our guards are better than their guards and we are not going up against Curry and Thompson.  Some adjustment to frontcourt matchups by Stevens will temper their advantage.  Our bench will ultimately outplay their bench.

dboss

Dboss check ur pm box.

Matty check ur PM box to see my response.

Thumbs Up!

dboss

dboss - one good outcome from possibly losing a series to Atlanta would be saying farewell to Sully because he is our biggest glaring weakness against them.

Bob

The other night KO passed up too many open looks.  I want him to shoot the ball because most of the time he has the best option.  We need for him to very aggressive and look to score.  When KO is shooting the ball well Boston becomes a real tough out.

I too am feeling good about this series.  It is not easy to keep beating a team and since we have lost 3 out of 4, the Hawks may be over confident.

The Celtics goal is to win in Atlanta.  If we can figure out a way to limit Milsap we will win.  That means some double teaming to keep him off balance and turn him into a passer and also more effort keeping him off the glass.  You have to put a body on Milsap.  I can envision Crowder sliding over to the 4 and Turner also on the floor at the 3.  Our pit bulls need to maul them!

When the shot clock is winding down either Milsap or Teague will look to go one on one.Turn those two into passers but the Celtics must read the defensive assignments ahead of the play.  They must anticipate that a quick weakside rotation will be needed.

I know that we can beat this team but only if we play really good defense.

dboss

bobheckler wrote:http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/celtics-vs-hawks-position-position


bob


.

They must be reading our posts

dboss

Yes dboss, Kelly does pass up too many open looks. He hesitates for a second, then is covered, and the opportunity is gone for that open 3 pointer. A bad habit.

Hi,
I think KO's problem is (on many occasions) he can't make his mind to up-fake and run to the hoop or, shoot 3. He uses too much time for that.
Also, he should shoot more, when open, when he's 15-18 feet. I believe he's as good at this distance as he is from 3pt range.

AK

[quote="sinus007"]Hi,
I think KO's problem is (on many occasions) he can't make his mind to up-fake and run to the hoop or, shoot 3. He uses too much time for that.
Also, he should shoot more, when open, when he's 15-18 feet. I believe he's as good at this distance as he is from 3pt range.

AK[/quote

KO needs to read the defense right before he receives the pass.

He could be a difference maker.

Dboss

for Me I'd like to see Bradley on Bazemore primarily.

with Turner , Jerebko and Smart being the primary defenders on Korver.

IT matches up ok with Teague or even Schroder. Bradley spells IT when he's out here.

Marcus Slides in on Bazemore then or Hardawy or Korver when he's in.

This lets us have Crowder as the primary dfender on Milsap. Jerebko is my second here if/when needed.

That leaves Amir to battle Horford.

Humprhies and Scott in the games allows Sully and Kelly to play for me.

the only guy I left out of their rotation was Sefalosha and he is primary a defensive player. Turner or Smart would be on the floor with him for me.


so the rotation that I would think about for this series , based on minutes played:

Bradley
Crowder
IT
Smart
Amir
Turner
Jerebko
Kelly
Sully

Zeller and Rozier next in line, but probably not used much.

worcester wrote:dboss - one good outcome from possibly losing a series to Atlanta would be saying farewell to Sully because he is our biggest glaring weakness against them.

Worcester

I agree. Sully is not very likely to be on this team if he plays poorly in this series. But it is not all his fault. DA drafted him with red flags waving. However that was before the pace and space game.

Sully is not a good fit for pace and space. His rebounding will need to be replaced and improved on. When was the last time we had a 10+ per game rebounder?

Dboss

Which Sully is gonna show up?

If Sully can avg a 20-10 we will win this series, he has that kind of ability and should be the dominant rebounder in this series. He should be able to bull rush some baskets around the rim as neither Horford or Milsap is a power player with a big length advantage, so these guys will have their moments, but Sully has to have his and throw his weight around.

We should be able to run and beat them at their own game as we are deeper and younger. I would put AB and Smart on Teague as much as possible, as Korver is not much of a slasher/finisher. IT can hang with him on perimeter and get outlet passes blowing by Korver in transition. We have to swarm on defense and create fast break opportunities, AB can also outrun Korver....I would attack Korver in the post with Smart and Turner too. Jerebko will have to match up on Milsap if they are going with his outside shooting and driving game, which they will.

Sully get the board and show us that fast outlet, use your energy, strength get a bunch of offensive boards. Sully needs 12-14 boards a game this series.

dboss wrote:

worcester wrote:dboss - one good outcome from possibly losing a series to Atlanta would be saying farewell to Sully because he is our biggest glaring weakness against them.

Worcester

I agree.  Sully is not very likely to be on this team if he plays poorly in this series.  But it is not all his fault.  DA drafted him with red flags waving.  However that was before the pace and space game.

Sully is not a good fit for pace and space.  His rebounding will need to be replaced and improved on.  When was the last time we had a 10+ per game rebounder?

Dboss

Antoine Walker in 1997-98 with 10.2.

Steve, you are our Sgt. Joe Friday. "The facts ma'am. Just the facts."

steve3344 wrote:

dboss wrote:

worcester wrote:dboss - one good outcome from possibly losing a series to Atlanta would be saying farewell to Sully because he is our biggest glaring weakness against them.

Worcester

I agree.  Sully is not very likely to be on this team if he plays poorly in this series.  But it is not all his fault.  DA drafted him with red flags waving.  However that was before the pace and space game.

Sully is not a good fit for pace and space.  His rebounding will need to be replaced and improved on.  When was the last time we had a 10+ per game rebounder?

Dboss

Antoine Walker in 1997-98 with 10.2.

+

Steve
I came up with Al Jefferson in 2006-07 with 11.0 rebs per game. http://bkref.com/tiny/fK8IB

swish

swish wrote:

steve3344 wrote:

dboss wrote:

worcester wrote:dboss - one good outcome from possibly losing a series to Atlanta would be saying farewell to Sully because he is our biggest glaring weakness against them.

Worcester

I agree.  Sully is not very likely to be on this team if he plays poorly in this series.  But it is not all his fault.  DA drafted him with red flags waving.  However that was before the pace and space game.

Sully is not a good fit for pace and space.  His rebounding will need to be replaced and improved on.  When was the last time we had a 10+ per game rebounder?

Dboss

Antoine Walker in 1997-98 with 10.2.

+

Steve
 I came up with Al Jefferson in 2006-07 with 11.0 rebs per game.      http://bkref.com/tiny/fK8IB

   swish

AJ it is then.