DOWN BUT NOT OUT: HOW THE BOSTON CELTICS CAN STILL TAKE DOWN THE HIGH-FLYING ATLANTA HAWKS

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DOWN BUT NOT OUT: HOW THE BOSTON CELTICS CAN STILL TAKE DOWN THE HIGH-FLYING ATLANTA HAWKS


April 20, 2016


by Brad Winter




Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports




I'm a diehard Celtics fan, so this article is going to bring me to tears, but here goes anything...

Yesterday, I spent two and a half hours of my life yelling at my television, whining like a petulant little girl every time the refs didn't call a foul on one of the Celtics' many drives and talking myself into the idea of the Celtics giving Al Horford a max-contract this Summer.

The whole game, was a torrid affair. The first 5 minutes, in which we dug ourselves a 21 point whole, were torture. I considered turning the whole game off, but I resisted and instead convinced myself that the Celts were going to pull of one of their miraculous second half comebacks. Just check out my Twitter page, it tells the whole story of my range of emotions throughout that game, including this:


Brad Winter ‎@BradWinter12
Why is everyone laughing/doubting the Celts? They are the Kings of the second half. They'll tie it up at some stage, watch this space
5:12 PM - 19 Apr 2016
 Retweets   likes


In hindsight, that tweet was less of actually believing in the ice cold Celtics, but more me doing my best impression of Lloyd from Dumb and Dumber:




Yeah, I was getting desperate.

I was getting desperate to the point that I thought the Scott Foster, the ref, was conspiring against Boston and blamed him for everything, until I checked the box score and realized that the Hawks were called more and we ended up with less fouls on the day (honestly, there was a good half hour where I was convinced that Foster had been paid until I checked the foul count, again, look at my Twitter). Whoops!

Now that I've finished cooling off, I've realized that the Celtics lost this game through no fault but their own. They were outplayed by a better team, with a sound, but simple strategy, on both sides of the basketball. I think there are definitely some things the Celtics can do to turn this series around, I'm sure they're more than capable. I'm also sure that Brad Stevens is more than capable. He's a top 5 coach in this league and I think he's been out-gunned by Mike Budenholzer -- not a bad thing by the way, remember, he was coach of the year last season.

Anyways, let's get into some things that Brad might do differently in game 3 and the rest of the series to come.

I'll start off on the defensive side of the ball, because I think that in game 2, we were actually pretty decent and it was one of the only things we did well. We held the Hawks to 89 points on 39% shooting. In fact, on the inside, where we struggled in game one (giving up 52 points in the paint),we thrived, by out-scoring the Hawks down low and holding them to just 32 paint points. We showed significant improvement on the interior. Amir Johnson was a beast, Jared Sullinger didn't allow too much inside and our matchup for Paul Millsap, Jae Crowder, did an great job on their best player, only allowing Millsap to conjure up 4 points on 1/12 shooting.

But even with these positives, there are still a couple of things we need to fix.

First off, less Jared Sullinger. And to be honest, less two-big lineups in general. The more we have Jae Crowder guarding Paul Millsap, the better, is the way I see it, so let's fire away with Crowder at power forward to start off with eh? The starting frontcourt of Jared Sullinger and Amir Johnson just doesn't work at the moment. Johnson has been great defensively, but he is incapable of guarding anyone but Al Horford on that Hawks' team. Granted, he does a pretty good job on Horford, as he has the length and athleticism to match big Al, but Amir on Horford leaves us with other mismatches on the floor. Specifically, Sullinger guarding Millsap. Paul might be a big guy, but he is twice as quick as Sullinger and will murder him with his floor-spreading and ability to take bigger dudes off the dribble. So let's cut the Sullinger and Johnson lineup out all together, at least for this team.

Next, our pick and roll defense. It has been awful. The Celtics have made Jeff Teague look like modern day John Stockton out there, luckily for Coach Stevens, there's a reasonably simple fix. Check this blurry freeze-frame out (sorry about the quality, it's the best I can do, but It won't make too much of a difference):




Off of the Millsap screen, you'll see Thomas attached to Teague's hip. But for what reason? Why is he going over the pick? Teague is a 40% (exactly) three-point shooter, yes, but he is also shooting 27% on mid-range jumpers this year. This is the exact reason why a lot of teams have opted to go under this screen all season. But yet, Thomas chooses to go over it.

If you're wondering what the difference is, Teague got a half-step ahead of Thomas on this play, forcing Amir Johnson -- who's guarding Millsap on this play -- to step up and stop the drive. He actually does this pretty well. Even Marcus Smart is in position to help and stop this drive, due to Kyle Korver cutting across the court at precisely the wrong time. So what's wrong with this play in the end? Well, simply, look where Jared Sullinger is standing.

*Lets every Celtics' fan facepalm*

WHAT IS HE DOING?

He's in complete no man's land, he's not helping guard the pick and roll and he's not even on his man. If you're wondering how this play ended, it was an easy alley-oop finish for Horford. So while not completely meaning it, technically, Thomas going over this screen, has caused Sully to think that he should be helping and thus, allowing an alley-oop. Yay.  (MY NOTE:  If you cannot see from the poor quality, Horford is Sully's man, the one he abandoned all alone along the baseline on the other side of the painted area.  ANY pass over the top, or rotation of the ball and a quick dump down, would produce a score with defense like that)

But again, the real problem here is Thomas going over the pick and allowing Teague to get a step ahead to force Johnson to pick him up. This is completely unnecessary, seeing as Teague is a rather poor shooter. The Celts seemed to do this on practically every pick and roll too. Guess what? It resulted in the exact same result every time.

https://twitter.com/NBA/status/722598170874609665


Just watch that video above and see how Thomas is already going over the screen and Johnson is already ready to help. Horford realizes that they are going to do this every time, so he chooses correctly to slip the screen and take the direct route to the basket, with Johnson out of position, as he is expecting he has to be in position for the pick and roll.

In instances where the Celtics didn't go over the screen, they switched and in most cases, there was no need for a switch! It was pretty lazy basketball if you ask me and it gave the Hawks the matchup they want: Jeff Teague guarded by a big. This is gold for Atlanta. Jeff Teague is at his absolute peak when he's in isolation and has a mismatch, ready to blow by anyone with his exceptional speed.

I'm not sure if this was Brad Stevens' plan going in to this series, but I sure as hell hopes he tells his players to go under the rest of these screens.

Another little thing I wanted to mention, I liked the idea of taking Isaiah off of Kent Bazemore, but I'm not sure Jeff Teague is too much better for Thomas to guard. I'd like to see Stevens have a crack at hiding him on Korver, who although torched the Celtics in game two, doesn't do anything on-ball, so all Isaiah would have to do is chase him around the court. It's just a thought and it probably wouldn't go too well, but there is no way Korver is going to exploit Isaiah's height by taking him down to the paint is there?

Ok, I'm done with the defense.

As for offense...AY, YAI, YAI!

Where to start with this one.

Well actually, I'm not going to dwell on our offense too much, as Stevens keeps saying in his interviews, the looks we are getting are good, we just aren't dropping them. From a coaching and gameplan standpoint, there's not much more you can do as a coach, when you shoot below 37% in both of your games, with mostly good looks.

But as for lineups, adjustments are needed.

First of all, spacing is going to be an issue all series at this rate. That idiot, Jon Barry, kept saying in game one that, "The Celtics need to get into the paint! Why are they taking so many threes? They aren't draining any of them!" Great analysis, Jon. If 'get into the paint' is the best advice you've got, you'd be a damn great coach. Everyone knows that you have to get into the paint. In fact, the Celtics whole offense usually revolves around middle penetration and drive and kicks for jump shots from the outside. But the Hawks have expertly taken that away from Boston.

They clog the paint to death, not allowing any of our guards any sort of leeway in the paint. If you're wondering why the Hawks had 15 blocks on the game, that's why. It also explains this outrageous stat:

Nate Duncan ✔ ‎@NateDuncanNBA
The Celtics shot 14/39 in the restricted area, 36%. That's a huge # of rim shots, and unfathomably bad percentage
6:32 PM - 19 Apr 2016
 7 7 Retweets   8 8 likes


So you see Jon Barry? The Celtics are getting into the paint, it's just amazing defense that is preventing us from converting any of our looks.

It begs the question, how, how on earth, do we get to raise that percentage? The answer is spacing for those of you playing at home. The key to the NBA for the past 3 years and the foreseeable future is exactly that and it has been something that Brad Stevens has harped on and on about ever since he arrived in Beantown. Yet, in this series, the Hawks are exploiting our lack of it.

With out frontcourt of Amir Johnson and Jared Sullinger (yep, I'm shitting on them again), we have two average mid-range shooters, who can, but don't like shooting the three. They like to bang down low and in Johnson's case, roll hard to the rim. The problem with these two in the same frontcourt is that the Hawks have taken their lack of three-point shooting to the extreme and completely ignore them, treating them both like Golden State did with Tony Allen. When they are on the perimeter and have an open shot, they pass it up. Either that, or they clog the paint up even further.

Add into this equation the brick layer himself, Marcus Smart and Jae Crowder, who has been absolutely terrible from distance since he returned from injury, as well as Avery Bradley being out due to injury and you have one helluva congested lane.

So the answer is simple, spread the floor with more five-out sets and get that lane clear! We can do this in a few ways. First off, no more Johnson and Sullinger at the same time. Secondly, we need Jae Crowder to re-discover his shooting form, as well as Marcus Smart to hit a couple. Thirdly, Kelly Olynyk needs to be back for game three. Lastly, MORE JONAS JEREBKO! Quick shout-out to the Pace and Space blog by the way, who did a fantastic feature on Jonas Jerebko last month, I love reading their stuff, so I'm sure you will too.

Just look at how our offense managed to un-clog the lane and exploit the Hawks' strategy of doing this, by having decent to salvageable three-point shooters out on the floor:




In this freeze-frame, you wouldn't know if I told you, but it is coming after a pick and pop from Sully, who is standing idly on the three-point line. Horford is playing off of him and is ready to help on R.J. Hunter's drive. But look what the spread pick and roll does to the incredibly blurry Thabo Sefolosha, who in case you didn't recognize him, is standing at the elbow on the far side of the shot. He's awaiting the pass to Sullinger, so he can cover for Horford. But if I had the clip ready for you, you'd know that on this specific play, Turner makes a cut behind Sefolosha, who has no clue where his guy is due to the help on the pick and roll/pop and E.T. has an easy layup under the rim.

This is what a simple five-out formation does for your offense against a clogging defense. It allows for a much more spread floor and easier offense. For if Thabo didn't step up and wasn't ready for the pass to Sullinger, Jared would've had an open three-ball, instead of an open Turner layup.

Now check out this freeze-frame:




This one is even more straight-forward. Check out how all five Hawks are camped in the lane, ready to cut-off any sort of penetration. Luckily, Jerebko is in the perfect spot to capitalize on every single big sinking to the paint. This is what the Hawks want to do to the Celtics. They want to stop any drive and kick the Celtics have in their arsenal. The only thing is, this doesn't work if the floor is spread with competent shooters, such as Jonas Jerebko. So while the Celtics don't have the floor stretching talent like most teams do, they will have a lot more open looks against this Hawks' strategy than most and need to knock them down. Jonas Jerebko and Kelly Olynyk, if he returns, will go a long way to fixing this.

So, although I don't know anything near what President Brad Stevens does, I think these simple, but effective, changes to the strategy of the Boston Celtics, will go a long way to getting this series back on track.



bob
MY NOTE:  It ain't over 'til it's over - Yogi Berra.  The Hawks had two games of home cooking and now we have two games of home cooking of our own.  Every game we hang in there is another game we can win another one and it isn't over until one of us wins 4.  Not 2, 4.  I'm not saying it's going to be easy, but if we can get it to 6 Bradley might be back and that's a game-changer.  The easiest way to get it to 6 is by holding home court, starting tonight.


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