Al Horford and Free Throws?

Big Al shot his 74th free throw of the season tonight with only 1 second left in the game.

He used to shoot over 200 free throws per year (although not last season), but this year is likely to barely scrape over one hundred at his
current pace.

Is this a problem? Less aggressive on Al's part? Not a big part of the offense?

I think he pplayed closer to the basket earlier in his career. It looks like he`s getting touches. What do you think, Clyde?

Horford's career frito rate is 2.7 ftas/36mpg. He is shooting 2.2ftas/36mpg, but this is the 3rd year in a row that has been down. However, when you view it as pace (i.e. style of play) and not just minutes, his career frito rate/100 possessions is 3.9ftas/100 possessions and he is now shooting 3.0/100 possessions.

What does all this mean? I don't know. It's just the numbers.

I think we play with a faster pace than the Hawks did. That should mean fewer half court sets which means less banging, etc. Also, I think JR makes an excellent point, he plays 4 more than he did in Atlanta. Now, he has Amir to set up low. Who was that player in Atlanta?

Al is also taking more 3s this year. A LOT more. Career, .8 3pt fgas/36mpg. Last year, when he added that to his game, he took 3.5 3pt fgas/36mpg. That is almost like turning into a completely different player. This year? 4.9 3pt fgas/36mpg! Almost the same number of fgas total, just more of them coming from away from the defense (and contact).


It's the way the NBA is going. Positionless. Al can play down low, but he can also spread the defense with his outside shooting, as opposed to Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan and Rudy Gobert whose limitations make them very predictable. Do they do other things well? Sure, but on offense their teams are playing 4 1/2 on 5.


bob


.

bobheckler wrote:Horford's career frito rate is 2.7 ftas/36mpg.  He is shooting 2.2ftas/36mpg, but this is the 3rd year in a row that has been down.  However, when you view it as pace (i.e. style of play) and not just minutes, his career frito rate/100 possessions is 3.9ftas/100 possessions and he is now shooting 3.0/100 possessions.  

What does all this mean?  I don't know.  It's just the numbers.

I think we play with a faster pace than the Hawks did.  That should mean fewer half court sets which means less banging, etc.  Also, I think JR makes an excellent point, he plays 4 more than he did in Atlanta.  Now, he has Amir to set up low.  Who was that player in Atlanta?

Al is also taking more 3s this year.  A LOT more.  Career, .8 3pt fgas/36mpg.  Last year, when he added that to his game, he took 3.5 3pt fgas/36mpg.  That is almost like turning into a completely different player.  This year?  4.9 3pt fgas/36mpg!  Almost the same number of fgas total, just more of them coming from away from the defense (and contact).


It's the way the NBA is going.  Positionless.  Al can play down low, but he can also spread the defense with his outside shooting, as opposed to Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan and Rudy Gobert whose limitations make them very predictable.  Do they do other things well?  Sure, but on offense their teams are playing 4 1/2 on 5.


bob


.

IT is getting Al`s free throws. I`m cool with that. Thanks for filling in the blanks, Bob. Stats tell the story better than guesswork. BTW, we`ve got three guys that are close to 90 percent FT shooters in Thomas, Crowder , Bradley. Nice thing to have in tight games

jrleftfoot wrote:

bobheckler wrote:Horford's career frito rate is 2.7 ftas/36mpg.  He is shooting 2.2ftas/36mpg, but this is the 3rd year in a row that has been down.  However, when you view it as pace (i.e. style of play) and not just minutes, his career frito rate/100 possessions is 3.9ftas/100 possessions and he is now shooting 3.0/100 possessions.  

What does all this mean?  I don't know.  It's just the numbers.

I think we play with a faster pace than the Hawks did.  That should mean fewer half court sets which means less banging, etc.  Also, I think JR makes an excellent point, he plays 4 more than he did in Atlanta.  Now, he has Amir to set up low.  Who was that player in Atlanta?

Al is also taking more 3s this year.  A LOT more.  Career, .8 3pt fgas/36mpg.  Last year, when he added that to his game, he took 3.5 3pt fgas/36mpg.  That is almost like turning into a completely different player.  This year?  4.9 3pt fgas/36mpg!  Almost the same number of fgas total, just more of them coming from away from the defense (and contact).


It's the way the NBA is going.  Positionless.  Al can play down low, but he can also spread the defense with his outside shooting, as opposed to Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan and Rudy Gobert whose limitations make them very predictable.  Do they do other things well?  Sure, but on offense their teams are playing 4 1/2 on 5.


bob


.

IT is getting Al`s free throws. I`m cool with that. Thanks for filling in the blanks, Bob. Stats tell the story better than guesswork. BTW, we`ve got three guys that are close to 90 percent FT shooters in Thomas, Crowder , Bradley. Nice thing to have in tight games

You're welcome, JR.  Stats don't always work, they don't tell you about the intangibles for example, but they do help sanity check what your eyes and brain think they are comprehending.  

Here are some more stats, since you are appreciating them.

75% of Al's shots are jump shots, 25% are "close".  That's normally.  In crunch time those numbers become 81% and 16%.  In other words, during crunch time Al takes more jump shots than usual.  A big is more likely to earn a frito if he is down low than if he is jump shooting from mid-range or 3.  Also, in crunch time, Al's eFG% (Effective Field Goal Percentage adjusts for points earned by hitting a 3) is 59.1%.

Here's another good one:  Al draws fouls at a higher rate in crunch time than non-crunch time,  8.6% vs 6.7%

Lots of good stats here:  http://www.82games.com/1617/16BOS14.HTM

Go down to the bottom and see his On Court/Off Court impact.  Interesting stuff.


bob


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Interesting indeed.I think I tend to underestimate Al because he`s not a banger.