Rondo's Free Throws...a Slightly Different Slant

Much has justifiably been made of Rajon Rondo’s continuing problems in shooting free throws. He has averaged 63.5% from the line during his career, dipping to a low of 61.1% during the championship season.

Rondo reportedly sought help from Mark Price during the summer, and he actually started the preseason by shooting 70% in the first two games but then plummeted to 6-14 in the most recent game. In short, he continues to be inconsistent…netting out at 54.1% at the moment.

The question has been raised as to whether there’s any hope for improvement. After all, we don’t want to become too discouraged because of one very bad game; but what are reasonable hopes, if not expectations? I personally believe his stroke is a little smoother this year; he’s starting the ball a bit more in front; he seems to push the ball more smoothly rather than flipping his wrist when he shoots it; and the elbow's not flying as badly. But the question is a legitimate one. I’ve heard several people ask whether any player has ever experienced dramatic improvement from the list in his career.

Well, take some solace in the following stats involving the improvement experienced by a number of players between their first reasonably full season and the most recent reasonably full season:

Magic Johnson + 4.6 percentage points
Willis Reed + 5.0 percentage points
Julius Erving + 6.8 percentage points
Sam Jones + 6.9 percentage points
Larry Bird + 9.0 percentage points
John Stockton + 9.0 percentage points
Dave Cowens + 9.3 percentage points
Steve Nash + 10.9 percentage points
John Havlicek + 12.7 percentage points
Derek Fisher + 18.8 percentage points
Walt Frazier + 19.5 percentage points
Dennis Johnson + 21.9 percentage points

True, a lot of improvement was made by guys who started fairly high (and thus simply had to hone existing shooting capabilities) and simply got better. But those double-digit jumps were not based on high initial baselines.

Note that the guys who made the biggest leaps tended to be guards or swingmen. (I’m not sure of the reasons.) And I did look at a lot of big men too.

In fact, I semi-randomly accessed the stats of 24 players past and present, and roughly half of them experienced at least noteworthy improvement. (The biggest negative slide I found was -12.3 percentage points by Tiny Archibald.) Other notables: Kobe +3.7 percentage points; Lebron James +2.6 percentage points.

The conjecture will rage on about what will be required for Rondo to join the ranks of the slow-but-steady learners. Get the ball on the fingertips and stop palming it? Keep the elbow in? Get a new head or at least a different attitude? But, simply based on stats and history, there definitely is hope…starting with the possibility that the most recent game was an aberration.

Sam

Sam,

Rondo undoubtedly showed progress from the stripe over the past two seasons. I do agree that FT% for the guy who will handle the ball in the closing moments of a close game is an important stat. I guess I'm not yet that concerned because Rondo does seem to learn, although at a pace that seems to vary.

Regards

NYCelt,

Of all the stats associated with basketball, FT shooting percentage may be the purest because it comes the closest to being achieved relatively free of other influences. No interaction with other players, not shooting on the run etc. There can be the crowd noise factor, but basically it's the shooter, the ball, the rim, and the pressure.

Sam

Can he hit his FTs in the 4th quarter at a 70% clip when the game is on the line? I'm not asking him to be RayRay and shoot 90+%. Or Pierce at 80% at crunch time.

Give me a "measley" seven zero and I am a happy man!

I love Rondo's grit and toughness. He does take a pounding going to the rim. He obviously has a very high BBIQ and appreciation for the game.

My sense is that he will give me the 70% necessary to avoid being hacked to death at crunch time. This kid has exceeded all of my expectations so far and he will become a very adequate FT shooter in time.

Practice, practice, practice!

gc

Rajon will be fine. He already looks a lot stronger and more confident this season, I think in time he will shoot 65 to 70% - this season better as he matures and grows.

I also think that instead of sulking on the court or taking the trade rumors from the off season as a negative, he took them to heart and looks stronger, faster, and ready to lead the team to another banner. I think him showing up the way he did means that in the off season, he will be signed "long term" - which is what we all should be hoping for. The kid is a stud.

Cracker, I like contests. People get a kick out of contests. And you've just given me an idea for a contest, once we get some more people on this site and hopefull before the season starts. The person guessing (by a certain deadline) closest to Rondo's FT percentage this season gets a swell prize. (Remember, this is a low-budget operation, but bragging rights count.) We'll make the guesses four digits to avoid ties. I'll start a thread in a day or two about that context.

Sam

My first post, Sam. I have played college basketball and shot 85% free throws. I believe at the age of 62 I could still shoot 80%. I always took pride in that aspect of my game. I have taught local basketball players what I call the 5 C's:

Consistency Concentration Constancy
Confidence Conservatism

After watching Rondo closely for 2 years, I feel the areas he can improve on include:

1) Less ball movement (conservatism of ball movement);

2) More concentration;

3) More confidence.

Having said that, the size of his hands most assuredly results in inconsistency at the point of release. I don't know too many NBA players with extrememly large hands who reflect the ball release consistency required to shoot 70%. Of course inconsistency of release then impacts confidence, which erodes concentration.

Go Celtics!

Sam wrote:Cracker, I like contests. People get a kick out of contests. And you've just given me an idea for a contest, once we get some more people on this site and hopefull before the season starts. The person guessing (by a certain deadline) closest to Rondo's FT percentage this season gets a swell prize. (Remember, this is a low-budget operation, but bragging rights count.) We'll make the guesses four digits to avoid ties. I'll start a thread in a day or two about that context.

Sam

How about the winner gets to be administrator for a day with all the benefits and recognition (and headaches)that go along with that position. Not exactly TV's "Queen for a Day" (younger guys don't know what that means) but close!

4th Qtr FT % is my interest. It's all that counts.

gc

Sam wrote:NYCelt,

Of all the stats associated with basketball, FT shooting percentage may be the purest because it comes the closest to being achieved relatively free of other influences. No interaction with other players, not shooting on the run etc. There can be the crowd noise factor, but basically it's the shooter, the ball, the rim, and the pressure.

Sam

Similar to teeing off on the first hole in front of a crowd.
Dagnap it, the stupid ball doesn't move and I still swing and miss!

Confidence is such a big part of free throw shooting, and I'm glad to know some players have made great strides in the past.

SDCelt,

Nice to see you here and welcome aboard!

I was not aware of your background and it certainly allows for a deeper insight. If I had you coaching me as a high school basketball player maybe I wouldn't have been a college baseball player!

Then again I am only 5'9" and anything but quick...

Regards

SDCeltsFan,

I just want to make sure I'm not confusing you with either of two other guys. One lives in South Dakota, and the other lives in San Diego. Your insights are really interesting. For years, I've had this theory that a lot of kids with oversized hands delight in palming the ball at every opportunity to show off...because they can. And it's difficult for them to avoid that mentality when they get to the stage that they need to ascend to another level in the shooting department. Rondo obviously loves to palm the ball, and he does it even in shooting free throws (although I sense he has eased off a bit on it).

Have you noticed any of that?

Welcome to the board.

Sam

Cracker,

I'd be glad for various people to take a shot at hosting the board, although I'd be reluctant to spread the administration rights around.

Hey, one of the things I hope to do is to develop a list of indicators people watch for during games...and hopefully determine which ones wind up correlating most strongly with winning and losing games. Maybe, as an adjunct to that exercise, you could do the board a service by keeping track of Rondo's fourth quarter FT performances (or maybe you meant the entire team's performance).

Sam

Sam wrote:Cracker,

I'd be glad for various people to take a shot at hosting the board, although I'd be reluctant to spread the administration rights around.

Hey, one of the things I hope to do is to develop a list of indicators people watch for during games...and hopefully determine which ones wind up correlating most strongly with winning and losing games. Maybe, as an adjunct to that exercise, you could do the board a service by keeping track of Rondo's fourth quarter FT performances (or maybe you meant the entire team's performance).

Sam

We south georgia crackers use our fingers and toes to count. If we get above twenty, I'm going to have to wing it but I'll do my best.

I was referring to Rondo's 4th qtr FT% but I could enlarge the scope/count a bit if it served a useful purpose.

gc

And SD, happy birthday.

Sam

I'll go out by myself and shoot around to get warmed up then go to the line and shoot till I miss 10 shots. Many times I get to 50-60 range. It really nothing more than muscle memory.
I mentioned somewhere else how even the great Tiger Woods "looses" his swing and takes the time to use his swing coach to get "it' back.
Rondo really needs to practice 100-200 fs daily, using the correct form with minor comfortable adjustments.

As for the contest perhaps what he will be at the All star break then one for the final 2 months of the season, will he improve in the second half and raise the %? If so how much? Just an idea.

beat

I have only seen highlights. No full games. How is Rondo's stroke looking? Is he still super hesitant when open?

jeb,

From what I've been able to catch so far he still passes on some shots he should take.

As far as the jumper the mechanics look to be changeable and he had one bad game from the charity line.

All of that being said he still looks very good overall. I don't worry about his outside shot, but that FT% would be nice a bit higher.

I think Rondo is just going to be one of those players who is much maligned (much more than he deserves to be) all the way to his place on the All-Star roster and beyond.

Regards

NYC

I only worry about his outside shot cause teams play offa him. He just needs to take it. I think he is posed for an all star year. I really look for him to dominate games.. They aint goin to be fun to defend.

I also think Baby and Perk are goin to explode.

Thanks for the knowledge nycelt.

Excellent analysis above; one thought I have had is does anyone keep stats on which free throws are made or missed, the first or second shot?

I've felt Rondo's poor FTs were mostly a concentration problem, especially on the 2nd shot when he is trying to get a defensive read/strategy on the upcoming play. This should improve with time as confidence and reflexes allow him to concentrate on the shot.

I've never heard of stats on first versus second free throws. However, it has been an interest of mine since the 1950s, and I have kept informal track of it. And I have picked up tips from diverse articles and instruction on free throws. (Most of it was long ago, so I can't quote any sources.)

First free throws are more likely to be missed than second free throws. Shooting a first free throw involves shifting perspective from the external pressure of game pace to a more internal kind of pressure. Some rhythm shooters have difficulty adjusting to shooting from a still position, just as some baseball players have more difficulty fielding grounders hit right at them than moving right or left. By the time the second free throw is shot, part of the adjustment has already been made.

Moreover, missing the first free throw gives the shooter a benchmark for adjustment on the second free throw.

One of the things that has bothered me about Rondo is that he doesn't seem to miss more first free throws than second free throws. There's a sort of randomness to his misses that suggest problems that out of the ordinary.

One thing that has always bugged me about many players is that, after missing a free throw, they feel compelled to leave the line for one reason or another before shooting the second freebie. That simply undoes some of the adjustment that has been made via the process of shooting the first one.

Conversely, I've seen some coaches force players to leave the line between practice free throw shots expressly so they'll become more practiced in making the necessary free throws.

Sam