Hey bobh- remember this ? Eerily prophetic.

Hey bob-

sorry I couldn't make it up to SF this weekend. Would have been good to see you guys.

Remember this exchange ? You, beat and Jeb were dead right about Kobe's minutes.

And unfortunately for the Lakers, I was dead right about OKC.




Re: Lakers Bench last evening
by babyskyhook on Wed Nov 04, 2009 2:51 pm

bobheckler wrote:


OKC is one of the worst teams in the league. LA needed OT to beat them.


KoME's averaging almost 40mpg so far. His career average is 36. If they don't drop his minutes, he'll be burned out come May. He's not young anymore and he's not getting younger. By the time the playoff come around he'll have about as many minutes on him, career, as KG has on him now and look at how we're trying to protect him.



Bob, Beat, Jeb:


.........

So yes- you guys are right. LA's bench is a problem, although I think they will do something to address it. I really hope part of it involves getting a new player or two, b/c going into the playoffs with Farmar and the douche on the bench would not make me happy.



PS- Bob,

I think you are vastly underrating OKC. They are far from one of the worst teams in the league. (This is in no way to defend LA's bench, which is why I saved this as a PS.) They have the best collection of young talent in the league IMO.

Durant, Westbrook and Green are all ballers. Thebo S. and Etan Thomas are playing gritty hard-nosed d for them (which they needed) and Harden was a solid addition (although I would have picked Rubio, but that's a whole different story).

Their record last year was a bit distorted b/c they got off to such a horrible start. But once they brought in Brooks, who is a good young coach, they started to turn it around, and they had some quality wins down the stretch last year against playoff teams who were fighting for position. They have started this year off well. If Durant hadn't been in an incredible shooting funk vs POrtland the other night, thy would be 3-1, and they had plenty of chances to beat the Lakers last night.

They're going to be an interesting team to watch grow up. It's a unique situation with their young core growing together and improving as rapidly as they have. And their home court has a college atmosphere to it.

I think they will be fighting with Utah, Houston, and New Orleans for one of the last two playoff slots in the West. Don't sleep on these guys, they are good. I saw them last year live and am going to see them at Staples in a couple of weeks b/c they are fun to watch.

If you have a chance, you should definitely watch them when they play the Cs. You'll see what I'm talking about.

IMO, the biggest mistake of the NBA schedule-makers was not getting these guys on national tv at all this year.

bsh,

You were mentioned repeatedly this weekend. We all wished you could have made it. I'm sure you had very good reasons for not. Let's hope next year we can work it out.

Wow. I can't believe you took the time to hunt for these. Impressive.

First off, let me stand up and admit I was wrong about OKC and you were right. They are NOT one of the worst teams in the league, not by a long shot, and you were right in saying they were more dangerous than they appeared at the time we exchanged these posts.

This is one of the dangers of writing publicly. Sometimes you have to eat your words.

bob

welcome back sky...good stuff as usual. Yall are goin to make it but ya gots to slow them kids down!

jeb65 wrote:welcome back sky...good stuff as usual. Yall are goin to make it but ya gots to slow them kids down!

All the 3s these idiots keep shooting allow OKC to get out in transition where their speed is killing LA. You are right about slowing them down- need to literally slow them down. Pound it inside, play D and rebound with real effort and they will win. We shall see.

bobheckler wrote:bsh,

You were mentioned repeatedly this weekend. We all wished you could have made it. I'm sure you had very good reasons for not. Let's hope next year we can work it out.

Wow. I can't believe you took the time to hunt for these. Impressive.

First off, let me stand up and admit I was wrong about OKC and you were right. They are NOT one of the worst teams in the league, not by a long shot, and you were right in saying they were more dangerous than they appeared at the time we exchanged these posts.

This is one of the dangers of writing publicly. Sometimes you have to eat your words.

bob

Yeah- we were shooting my buddy's pilot for a tv show down here (ironically, we were shooting in the Bay Area up until two weeks ago), and just wrapped on Saturday, so I couldn't make it work.

It actually didn't take that long to find the post, as I remember it was in the first week of the season or so.


The eerie thing is how right you guys were about the wear and tear on Kobe's body that playing big minutes all year was going to cause. He is like a walking medical ward right now between the broken finger, the swollen knee, the tweaked ankle tendon and the sore hamstring.


And how ironic is it that I was singing the Thunder's praises and now they could potentially knock LA out of the playoffs ?

Pretty crazy world we live in. Speaking of which, where are you in SF ? Are you on the peninsula ?

babyskyhook wrote:

bobheckler wrote:bsh,

You were mentioned repeatedly this weekend. We all wished you could have made it. I'm sure you had very good reasons for not. Let's hope next year we can work it out.

Wow. I can't believe you took the time to hunt for these. Impressive.

First off, let me stand up and admit I was wrong about OKC and you were right. They are NOT one of the worst teams in the league, not by a long shot, and you were right in saying they were more dangerous than they appeared at the time we exchanged these posts.

This is one of the dangers of writing publicly. Sometimes you have to eat your words.

bob

Yeah- we were shooting my buddy's pilot for a tv show down here (ironically, we were shooting in the Bay Area up until two weeks ago), and just wrapped on Saturday, so I couldn't make it work.

It actually didn't take that long to find the post, as I remember it was in the first week of the season or so.


The eerie thing is how right you guys were about the wear and tear on Kobe's body that playing big minutes all year was going to cause. He is like a walking medical ward right now between the broken finger, the swollen knee, the tweaked ankle tendon and the sore hamstring.


And how ironic is it that I was singing the Thunder's praises and now they could potentially knock LA out of the playoffs ?

Pretty crazy world we live in. Speaking of which, where are you in SF ? Are you on the peninsula ?

bsh,

Yep, I'm on the peninsula, about 25 miles, in San Carlos. Lovely, sleepy little San Carlos. Getting up to the city and hanging with Sam and Jeb and MustangGator and all the rest of the guys who showed up for the game on Friday was a real treat for me. Let me know the next time you're around and we'll hook up for a beer.

It has occurred to me, over the past few years, that Kobe has slowed down a bit. I wasn't sure if that was just him gaining some maturity and letting the game come to him more (like the way Pierce slowed down a few years back. He was still very effective, he just learned he has more than one speed. He doesn't have to go top speed all the time to make it work) or him just getting older (he has a TON of career minutes on his body). I'm not ready to say it was age, although he has become craftier, but I am ready to say that he's been overworked this season and that's being seen now. Of course, "overworked" this year might have been doable 2-3 years ago.

Phil Jackson wanted homecourt throughout the playoffs and he was willing to ride his studs into the ground to get it. He got homecourt throughout the Western Conference playoffs and throughout the playoffs to the finals IF Cleveland doesn't get there. Now is when we see if that strategy was worth the price. By comparison, Doc didn't care about playoff seeding too much. He believed that if we're healthy and rested we can beat anybody, regardless of whether we have homecourt or not. It will be interesting to see which strategy pans out. Both could, of course, to a point. LA could play like they need every homecourt advantage they can get (which would make Jackson's strategy look smart) and the healthy, rested and focused Celtics could blast their way to a championship (Notice how I gave this a happy Celtic ending. LOL).

Looking ahead to next year, I think we will see Kobe's minutes being better managed. Jackson is saying that he wants Kobe to take the summer off, but Kobe took it easy last summer after winning the championship. Kobe is not going to come into camp out of shape, which means he's going to be working out for some of the summer. The implications of a Kobe Bryant who will not play >40 minutes a game can be translated into wins/losses. He averaged 38.8mpg this season versus a career 36.6mpg career. Clearly, he cannot average more than his career average going forward.

As of today, Kobe has 44,425 career NBA minutes on his body (37,384 regular season and 7041 playoff). By comparison, Kevin Garnett has 44,789 career minutes on his body (41,694 regular and 3095 playoff) and Ray Allen, who came into the league in the same draft as Kobe (1996) and who plays the same position as Kobe (so there's probably more similar wear-and-tear on him) has 41,121 minutes on his body (37,924 regular and 3197 playoff).

There are chronological age differences between KG/Ray Allen and Kobe that have to be taken into account, but the fluid buildup on Kobe's knees in the last week or two of the season is Kobe's body's way of telling him "I've taken as much of this punishment as I'm going to, now back off". So, even though Kobe is several years younger than either of those guys, his body is setting an upper limit for the amount of punishment it is willing to take over the course of a season. We have seen that with KG this year, but have not seen that with Ray Allen yet. He's the Energizer Bunny.

bob

.

Bobheck

Allen keeps his body very slim. Kobe obviously hits the weight pile and carries the resultant pounds. A slim but very important difference. Allen is lined up like r miller and will play til he is 40 if he wants to. Phil imho has made a grievous f@#$up in his management of Kobe's minutes and may have shortened one of the all time greats shelf life.

If Kobe cant lead them none of the other Lakers are tough minded enough to come out from Kobe's umbrella and assert themselves.

I dont think the Lakes have enough to win it this year. If they do my respect for Kobe will skyrocket.

jeb,

There wasn't a lot for Phil to do this year. It's like a baseball manager who gets grilled for using his starters for too long when his relief pitchers can't get anybody out.
Vujacic, Artest, Walton and many others provided very little offense.
Walton missed 50+ games, Gasol 19 and Bynum the last month.
I don't think stiiting Kobe an extra 2-3 minutes per game would make his leg and finger any better.
If LA can get past OKC, I think they will have an easier time with Utah. Utah is a physical team but way slower then OKC. Deron Williams is a superstar but he won't win a series without a big series from Boozer and one other player. No Okur helps LA's big men stay cloer to the basket on D.

tjmakz wrote:jeb,

There wasn't a lot for Phil to do this year. It's like a baseball manager who gets grilled for using his starters for too long when his relief pitchers can't get anybody out.
Vujacic, Artest, Walton and many others provided very little offense.
Walton missed 50+ games, Gasol 19 and Bynum the last month.
I don't think stiiting Kobe an extra 2-3 minutes per game would make his leg and finger any better.
If LA can get past OKC, I think they will have an easier time with Utah. Utah is a physical team but way slower then OKC. Deron Williams is a superstar but he won't win a series without a big series from Boozer and one other player. No Okur helps LA's big men stay cloer to the basket on D.

TJ,

You've got a good point about Phil's options this year. Little bit of a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" type of thing.

The Lakers had such a big lead over the #2 seed in the west this year, though, I think he could have taken his foot off the throttle a bit and maybe (maybe!) lost a few games as a result and still be in good shape for homecourt throughout the WC playoffs. It became clear with plenty of time left in the season that LA was NOT going to catch Cleveland. Jackson has never been good about confronting his stars though. He's a "soft power" type of guy.

I also think you're right about Utah etc. Far, far less athletic and fast than OKC. But if OKC takes LA to 7 (I still don't think they will, but at this point they're looking like it's at least possible) then Utah etc will be harder for LA anyway. There are no Memphis Grizzlies or NJ Nets in the playoffs, that let you take a game off (the Celtics "took a game off" against the Nets, and they beat us). Every game is against a better-than-average team and every game counts. As we saw last night against the Heat, being down 0-3 didn't stop them from bringing it full-bore and they're one of the worst teams in the playoffs.


bob

.

bob,

Kobe did sit out 4 of the last 5 games. I don't think Kobe is tired like he was in the Celtics/Lakers Finals two years ago. His problems are his injuries and significant loss of athleticism. Maybe it was smart for Kobe to mail in that loss with little effort and energy and focus his efforts on game 5. He can't go full bore for 7 games like he used to.
With only a 7 game difference between #1 to #8 in the West, there has been no favorite to win the West and very few easy wins to be had.

tjmakz wrote:bob,

Kobe did sit out 4 of the last 5 games. I don't think Kobe is tired like he was in the Celtics/Lakers Finals two years ago. His problems are his injuries and significant loss of athleticism. Maybe it was smart for Kobe to mail in that loss with little effort and energy and focus his efforts on game 5. He can't go full bore for 7 games like he used to.
With only a 7 game difference between #1 to #8 in the West, there has been no favorite to win the West and very few easy wins to be had.

I couldn't disagree more...I think that the Lakers in general and Kobe and Gasol are mentally tired. Physically this team is loaded but I think everyone, especially the ones they count on to rise up and carry loads are bordering on mental exhaustion. They have played more basketball in the past 3 years at a high level than anyone...That has to take a mental toll....Which makes focusing hard at times. In fact, the path back this year will be that the key guys will pick up their focus starting with tomorrow night. If they don't, then they will be in some trouble...and will have to do that in OKC.

The Lakers are loaded physically? Hmmmm.......
Speed and quickness often beats strength this late in the year. OKC is not soft under the basket either. They led the NBA in blocked shots this year.
I can't see how last years playoffs or the Olympics are mentally exhausting 1-2 years later. I would say it might be focus and planning on going all-out only when they need to. Just my opinion.

tjmakz wrote:The Lakers are loaded physically? Hmmmm.......
Speed and quickness often beats strength this late in the year. OKC is not soft under the basket either. They led the NBA in blocked shots this year.
I can't see how last years playoffs or the Olympics are mentally exhausting 1-2 years later. I would say it might be focus and planning on going all-out only when they need to. Just my opinion.

TJ,

I think what LACeltsfan is saying, if I may be so bold as to put words into his mouth, is that it's not the playoffs or the Olympics that are tiring, it's that by adding those to the list of games they've played there has been very little break. It's just non-stop, never-ending basketball month-after-month-after-month for what feels like years. Long seasons (which include going deep into the playoffs) take a mental toll. We saw it last year and we're seeing it this year with the Celtics. The Lakers have gone deep into the playoffs the last two years and are staring at doing it again this year. Squeeze in that Euro tournament Gasol played in the last offseason and the Olympics and that's a lot of hoop without much mental downtime dating back to November, 2007. The games Gasol and Kobe missed this year didn't take their minds off the game, just their bodies.

Furthermore, I would take your comment about lack of, or inadequate, focus and planning as evidence of mental fatigue, so I'm not sure we're so much at odds here as it would seem.

I'm not sure I agree with you about speed and quickness beating strength this time of year either. but that's another, quite long, discussion.

bob

.

bobheckler wrote:

tjmakz wrote:The Lakers are loaded physically? Hmmmm.......
Speed and quickness often beats strength this late in the year. OKC is not soft under the basket either. They led the NBA in blocked shots this year.
I can't see how last years playoffs or the Olympics are mentally exhausting 1-2 years later. I would say it might be focus and planning on going all-out only when they need to. Just my opinion.

TJ,

I think what LACeltsfan is saying, if I may be so bold as to put words into his mouth, is that it's not the playoffs or the Olympics that are tiring, it's that by adding those to the list of games they've played there has been very little break. It's just non-stop, never-ending basketball month-after-month-after-month for what feels like years. Long seasons (which include going deep into the playoffs) take a mental toll. We saw it last year and we're seeing it this year with the Celtics. The Lakers have gone deep into the playoffs the last two years and are staring at doing it again this year. Squeeze in that Euro tournament Gasol played in the last offseason and the Olympics and that's a lot of hoop without much mental downtime dating back to November, 2007. The games Gasol and Kobe missed this year didn't take their minds off the game, just their bodies.

Furthermore, I would take your comment about lack of or inadequate focus and planning as evidence of mental fatigue, so I'm not sure we're so much at odds here as it would seem.

I'm not sure I agree with you about speed and quickness beating strength this time of year either. but that's another, quite long, discussion.

bob

.

Well stated points, bob.

I think we agree that it is a combination of mental and physical fatigue that is affecting LA this season besides other issues.
If LA had a fast guard that could slow down Westbrook, we wouldn't be having this conversation. LA's problems defensively are by far because they can't stop point guards from dribble penetrating into the lane. That leaves open shots or lay ups when LA's bigs have to help out. Rondo embarrassed LA in the first half of that one game this year. He kept his dribble going and LA could do nothing about it. LA does not need an all-star point guard, but it's hard to win when your point guards are in the bottom 5 of the league.
As I remember with the Kobe/Shaq/Malone/Payton debacle, having all stars at every position does not equate to wins.

tjmakz wrote:The Lakers are loaded physically? Hmmmm.......
Speed and quickness often beats strength this late in the year. OKC is not soft under the basket either. They led the NBA in blocked shots this year.
I can't see how last years playoffs or the Olympics are mentally exhausting 1-2 years later. I would say it might be focus and planning on going all-out only when they need to. Just my opinion.

What I meant by that is that the Lakers are loaded with physical talent, IMHO....just my opinion....and play quite well as a team, no doubt, but Mr Heckler said it much better than me, the lack of nice long break away to clear out the crap wears them down mentally...again IMHO. I think that the mind starts to rebel even though the body recoups....which to me makes what Russell and Co. did even that much more amazing...even Michael needed a change of scenery for a few years. I've heard pro atheletes say that even though the physical can be pretty darned tough on the body, the hardest part can be year after year staying mentally tough. I just think it catches up and Kobe and Gasol and the Lakers in general have been pushing it. Not to say they won't get through it but it's not about the physical for them...IMHO. It's about staying mentally tough through year 3 when the mind wants to go to Bora Bora and relax on a beach.

tjmakz wrote:I think we agree that it is a combination of mental and physical fatigue that is affecting LA this season besides other issues.
If LA had a fast guard that could slow down Westbrook, we wouldn't be having this conversation. LA's problems defensively are by far because they can't stop point guards from dribble penetrating into the lane. That leaves open shots or lay ups when LA's bigs have to help out. Rondo embarrassed LA in the first half of that one game this year. He kept his dribble going and LA could do nothing about it. LA does not need an all-star point guard, but it's hard to win when your point guards are in the bottom 5 of the league.
As I remember with the Kobe/Shaq/Malone/Payton debacle, having all stars at every position does not equate to wins.

TJ,

Great coaches exploit the weaknesses of the other teams. The bigger the weakness, the less greatness is needed. Last year with the Celtics, after we lost KG and Powe and Scalabrine (a bit-part role player who played limited minutes, true, but plays very well against mobile outside big men like Nowitski and Rashard Lewis) it became very easy for Orlando to high pick-and-roll us to death in the 2nd round. It wasn't because our guard, Rondo, was too slow, it was because we lost our top 2 perimeter-defending big men (KG and Scal) and we also lost our interior intimidator (losing KG was a bad twofer, defensively, for us).

I have not watched as many of these Laker playoff games as you, so I'm not fully equipped to answer this, but I'll bet you are.

Is the reason why Westbrook is penetrating so much, and wreaking so much damage in the process, just because Fisher/Farmar/Brown lack the speed to keep up with him OR is it because they are being rubbed off on picks and the high pick defender (e.g. Gasol, Bynum, Odom) aren't jumping out at the ball and driving it back until Fisher etal can recover? The latter is what killed us with Orlando last year in the playoffs. It didn't matter which Orlando guard was in the game. They turned the corner courtesy of a high pick, nobody stopped them, and then it was either layup or kickout to a shooter like Lewis or Turkoglu or playing catch off the backboard with Howard. We didn't have anybody who helped Rondo out on the pick. Rondo's man was causing the damage, but it was poor team defense that was the culprit.

bob

.

bob,

With LA it's all about their PG's allowing dribble penetration into the lane.
Orlando is a great pick and roll team but LA's bigs, did a great job helping out, often at the 3 point line. The difference with Orlando is that Jameer Nelson is not a burner and not an exceptional ball handler. He only penetrates if the high pick is successful.
Rondo, Westbrook, Curry, Harris, Brooks, etc all blow past LA's PG's and make their defense collapse into the middle. With how well Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu shoot the ball if Orlando had a PG with more speed, Orlando wins the title last year.