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Nerlens Noel and the NBA's new restricted free agency gamble
by bobheckler Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:57 pm
https://sports.yahoo.com/nerlens-noel-nbas-new-unrestricted-free-agency-gamble-200812557.html
Nerlens Noel and the NBA's new restricted free agency gamble
Ben Rohrbach, Ball Don't Lie
Aug 28, 2017, 1:08 PM
Nerlens Noel reportedly turned down $70 million to sign for $4 million. You do the math. (AP)
Restricted free agency has become a boom-or-bust market, and Nerlens Noel played a losing hand.
The 23-year-old former lottery pick reportedly turned down a four-year, $70 million offer from the Dallas Mavericks on the opening day of NBA free agency and instead sought a contract in excess of $20 million annually. By the time Noel replaced the agent who negotiated that deal with LeBron James’ business partner, Rich Paul, who quickly learned a max offer would never come, the Mavs had rescinded their offer, and Noel was forced to sign his $4.1 million qualifying offer, per reports.
Noel’s former agent, Happy Walters, confirmed as much in a tweet to ESPN.com’s Chris Haynes:
Happy Walters ✔ @Happywalters
@ChrisBHaynes You can't rewrite history for @richpaul4 @mcuban offered a 4 year $70m deal and Nerlens passed. #diligencetweets
1:10 PM - Aug 26, 2017
10 10 Replies 126 126 Retweets 160 160 likes
In other words, Noel turned down roughly $66 million in guaranteed salary before his 28th birthday to bank on earning an even bigger payday as an unrestricted free agent next summer. By foregoing a double-digit pay raise this season, Noel will now have to earn at least $22 million per year over the next three seasons in order to make the difference in lost salary. And that’s entirely reasonable for an athletic 7-footer who can protect the rim defensively and attack it with a ferociousness offensively.
Except, Noel battled knee problems in high school before suffering a torn left ACL as a freshman at the University of Kentucky — an injury that led him to slide to the No. 6 pick in the 2013 draft and miss the entire 2013-14 season for the Philadelphia 76ers. He played all but seven games as a rookie in 2014-15, only to miss extended time over the next two seasons due to minor injuries to both knees.
Given his injury history, impending free agency and a crowded frontcourt, the Sixers dealt Noel to the Mavericks at the trade deadline in February for Justin Anderson and a pair of second-round picks. That pittance should have been Noel’s first sign that restricted free agency would be a challenge.
CJ McCollum ✔ @CJMcCollum
Nerlens Noel and the NBA's new restricted free agency gamble
Ben Rohrbach, Ball Don't Lie
Aug 28, 2017, 1:08 PM
Nerlens Noel reportedly turned down $70 million to sign for $4 million. You do the math. (AP)
Restricted free agency has become a boom-or-bust market, and Nerlens Noel played a losing hand.
The 23-year-old former lottery pick reportedly turned down a four-year, $70 million offer from the Dallas Mavericks on the opening day of NBA free agency and instead sought a contract in excess of $20 million annually. By the time Noel replaced the agent who negotiated that deal with LeBron James’ business partner, Rich Paul, who quickly learned a max offer would never come, the Mavs had rescinded their offer, and Noel was forced to sign his $4.1 million qualifying offer, per reports.
Noel’s former agent, Happy Walters, confirmed as much in a tweet to ESPN.com’s Chris Haynes:
Happy Walters ✔ @Happywalters
@ChrisBHaynes You can't rewrite history for @richpaul4 @mcuban offered a 4 year $70m deal and Nerlens passed. #diligencetweets
1:10 PM - Aug 26, 2017
10 10 Replies 126 126 Retweets 160 160 likes
In other words, Noel turned down roughly $66 million in guaranteed salary before his 28th birthday to bank on earning an even bigger payday as an unrestricted free agent next summer. By foregoing a double-digit pay raise this season, Noel will now have to earn at least $22 million per year over the next three seasons in order to make the difference in lost salary. And that’s entirely reasonable for an athletic 7-footer who can protect the rim defensively and attack it with a ferociousness offensively.
Except, Noel battled knee problems in high school before suffering a torn left ACL as a freshman at the University of Kentucky — an injury that led him to slide to the No. 6 pick in the 2013 draft and miss the entire 2013-14 season for the Philadelphia 76ers. He played all but seven games as a rookie in 2014-15, only to miss extended time over the next two seasons due to minor injuries to both knees.
Given his injury history, impending free agency and a crowded frontcourt, the Sixers dealt Noel to the Mavericks at the trade deadline in February for Justin Anderson and a pair of second-round picks. That pittance should have been Noel’s first sign that restricted free agency would be a challenge.
CJ McCollum ✔ @CJMcCollum
bobheckler- Posts : 61395
Join date : 2009-10-28
Re: Nerlens Noel and the NBA's new restricted free agency gamble
by BleedGreen Tue Aug 29, 2017 4:49 am
Similar situation to Greg Monroe.
A foolish young man overvalues himself based on what people say he should be worth and therefore passes on a less than max deal that is more than fair for what he is actually worth.
Monroe wanted the contract Hayward got from Utah back in 2013. Something like the 4/72 max at the time. Hayward got it from Charlotte with a nifty 4th yr player option Utah never would have given him if not having to match a RFA tender, and that came back to bite them in a big way. Hayward had wanted the Paul George 5/92 max (w a 5th yr option) at the time and Utah let him test restricted free agency rather than slightly overpay. Big mistake.
Detroit apparently offered Monroe 4/60 instead of 4/72. He has since made 5.5m on a QO and 51 mil on a 3 year deal with Milwaukee so he left about 10% on the table but did gain the freedom to choose where to play the next 3 years of his career. While technically a loss, gaining that freedom for 10% of your income when you are making million to play a game is likely a risk worth taking for players.
I doubt anyone gives Noel more than 3/60 or 4/70 next year even if he has his best season that is very good but not an elite or all-star level one. But he'll have earned the freedom to choose where to go, which I'm surprised more guys coming off rookie deals don't do.
A foolish young man overvalues himself based on what people say he should be worth and therefore passes on a less than max deal that is more than fair for what he is actually worth.
Monroe wanted the contract Hayward got from Utah back in 2013. Something like the 4/72 max at the time. Hayward got it from Charlotte with a nifty 4th yr player option Utah never would have given him if not having to match a RFA tender, and that came back to bite them in a big way. Hayward had wanted the Paul George 5/92 max (w a 5th yr option) at the time and Utah let him test restricted free agency rather than slightly overpay. Big mistake.
Detroit apparently offered Monroe 4/60 instead of 4/72. He has since made 5.5m on a QO and 51 mil on a 3 year deal with Milwaukee so he left about 10% on the table but did gain the freedom to choose where to play the next 3 years of his career. While technically a loss, gaining that freedom for 10% of your income when you are making million to play a game is likely a risk worth taking for players.
I doubt anyone gives Noel more than 3/60 or 4/70 next year even if he has his best season that is very good but not an elite or all-star level one. But he'll have earned the freedom to choose where to go, which I'm surprised more guys coming off rookie deals don't do.
BleedGreen- Posts : 192
Join date : 2017-06-24
Age : 51
Re: Nerlens Noel and the NBA's new restricted free agency gamble
by wideclyde Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:44 am
It appears that Mr. Noel gambled by waiting for a bigger contract than the offered $70 M and he lost this time around. Perhaps he will get another chance next year?
wideclyde- Posts : 2390
Join date : 2015-12-14
Re: Nerlens Noel and the NBA's new restricted free agency gamble
by kdp59 Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:11 am
money could very well be tighter next season then this one.
some say the cap may not rise much at all next year. The new minimum contracts and rookie scales will have a play in this as well to a lesser degree.
all those big money deals thrown at less than star players last year, are LONG GONE.
Noel won't be the last player to be disappointed in what the teams offer him in the coming years.
some say the cap may not rise much at all next year. The new minimum contracts and rookie scales will have a play in this as well to a lesser degree.
all those big money deals thrown at less than star players last year, are LONG GONE.
Noel won't be the last player to be disappointed in what the teams offer him in the coming years.
kdp59- Posts : 5709
Join date : 2014-01-05
Age : 64
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