Salary Cap Projections For Next Two Years

Food for thought for all you amateur GMs. Take these numbers with a big grain of salt. Their overestimation this year cost us Avery Bradley.


Shams Charania @ShamsCharania
Sources: NBA has informed teams of projected salary cap in next two offseasons: $101M for 2018-19, $108M for 2019-20, subject to change.
5:05 PM · Sep 28, 2017



bob


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How so Bob?

I thought it was estimated at 99 million back in June. How would that 2 million dollar change have made a difference to keeping AB and also having room to sign Hayward.

not a lot has changed to be honest.

two years ago was a ONE TIME big spike in the cap.

some teams spent crazy money on average players, but this year everyone was brought back to reality a a bit.

next year will be the same in the NBA.

Yes the stars will get their MAX deals still. But with the increase in the rookie and minimum vet deals, we will start to see a squeeze on players in the middle, IMO.

mrkleen09 wrote:How so Bob?

I thought it was estimated at 99 million back in June.  How would that 2 million dollar change have made a difference to keeping AB and also having room to sign Hayward.

 I'm not bob, 
 But I think that the plan was the team had positioned itself for the ability to do a single max deal. When the adjustment  was made the team suddenly found itself 700k and change still not under the cap, so somebody had to go to get under the cap. The bradley for Morris  deal gave us the breathing room to get under the cap and sign hayward.

mrkleen09 wrote:How so Bob?

I thought it was estimated at 99 million back in June.  How would that 2 million dollar change have made a difference to keeping AB and also having room to sign Hayward.

MrKleen,

As "I'm not Bob" (aka Matty) said, when the actual salary cap came in a little too low (<$1M) for us we had to deal SOMEONE. Turned out to be Bradley.

Here's an article that sums this up:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/16859143/nba-salary-cap-projection-2017-18-season-lower-expected



bob



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another note about the salary cap and Max deals.

with max deals now at 30% and in some cases 35% of the cap, the NBA seems to be trying to ramp down on the "super team" era.

IF a team has a max contract player taking up 30-35% of the cap, they are likely not going to be able to afford another max player.

in the coming years I think we will see more star players in their primes, looking for that max deal over joining a super team.

leaving a more balanced league with each team having one max player to build around.

bobheckler wrote:

MrKleen,

As "I'm not Bob" (aka Matty) said, when the actual salary cap came in a little too low (<$1M) for us we had to deal SOMEONE.  Turned out to be Bradley.

Here's an article that sums this up:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/16859143/nba-salary-cap-projection-2017-18-season-lower-expected



bob



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My question was not about what happened to Bradley and moving him to make room for Haywood, I know why DA said he made the move.

My question was about Bob's assertion the difference in the projected number from June and the actual number from September cost the Celtics Avery Bradley. My understanding what the difference in those two numbers is too small to have made a difference - ie. you would not been able to keep AB under the old or new estimate.

kdp59 wrote:another note about the salary cap and Max deals.

with max deals now at 30% and in some cases 35% of the cap, the NBA seems to be trying to ramp down on the "super team" era.

IF a team has a max contract  player taking up 30-35% of the cap, they are likely not going to be able to afford another max player.

in the coming years I think we will see more  star players in their primes, looking for that max deal over joining a super team.

leaving a more balanced league with each team having one max player to build around.

MrKleen,

I was/is my understanding that the reduction in the cap created a $700K problem. We could not sign Hayward at the agreed upon price, because that would put us over the cap and the league would void the deal, unless we shed some salary. It ended up being AB.


bob


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Bob

In the first post you claimed that "...Their overestimation this year cost us Avery Bradley."

I guess that is where I am confused.  Are you saying that 700K was the difference between trading and keeping AB?

The way I read things, the Celtics could not afford to keep AB before the estimate and they still could not afford to keep him after the revised number came out this week. Just wondering if I am wrong.

mrkleen09 wrote:Bob

In the first post you claimed that "...Their overestimation this year cost us Avery Bradley."

I guess that is where I am confused.  Are you saying that 700K was the difference between trading and keeping AB?  

The way I read things, the Celtics could not afford to keep AB before the estimate and they still could not afford to keep him after the revised number came out this week.  Just wondering if  I am wrong.

MrKleen,

It was the downward revision in the first half of July, between when Hayward committed to us and Bradley being traded, that forced Danny's hand and not the one rhat came out this week.

Whether Danny could have kept Bradley next year is a different issue, once the cap was lowered because of the shorter-than-expected 2017 playoffs he couldn't sign Hayward and keep all the rest of the roster this year.



bob


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Gotcha.

AB was gone either way next summer. This way, we get a player under control for multiple years at a reasonable rate - that allows them the space to get more players next summer and potentially extend Kyrie early.

mrkleen09 wrote:Gotcha.

AB was gone either way next summer.  This way, we get a player under control for multiple years at a reasonable rate - that allows them the space to get more players next summer and potentially extend Kyrie early.

MrKleen,

Amen to all that. The real screw-up here lies in the league lifting the free agent moratorium and initiating hunting season before they came out with the exact salary cap number the clubs needed to fit under before signing or trading players.


bob


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