Re: Will the Lakers’ draft pick end Marcus Smart’s time with the Boston Celtics?

by **dboss** Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:01 pm

k_j_88 wrote:We might be well over the cap for a few years. It's not ideal but Horford's contract will be the first to drop off in that situation.

KJ

KJ we are already over the Cap. It is the luxury tax that is the issue and there are repeat offender penalties up to $3 dollars for every dollar spent over the threshold.

dboss

by **kdp59** Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:12 am

RosalieTCeltics wrote:I will never figure out this salary cap business. How does a team like Golden State get to stack their team with Stphen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Dramond Green, Andre Inquodala, even Shaun Livingston has to be making a good salary. They are paying their supporting cast good money to stay intact.

answer: GS is currently at $136M in salary and OVER the tax line by almost $17M this year

Cleveland on the other hand, will have to make a good sized trade to get Joran from LAClippers, to strengthen their run into the playoffs. LBJ has to be making a ton, we all know that IT is a bargain, Love has a big contract, and their supporting cast are not big salaries to dump, so they will be okay with trading Thompson and whoever else to accommodate Jordan.

answer: Cleveland is at $134M in salarys and OVER the tax Line by almost $15M

The one team that consistently keeps winning and adding players to keep them winning is San Antonio. Their salaries are in line, I do not know if they are over the cap, I doubt it very much.

Answer: SA is at $116M in salarys and is $17M OVER the cap, but they re UNDER the tax line

So, how are you able to build a team with quality secondary players if the cap does not allow you to. We stand a chance of not only losing Smart, we very well could lose Rozier a year down the road.

WE are currently at $109M in salarys and $10M OVER the cap, so we are less than SA this year.
To build a team that wants to be at the top of the NBA you WILL be a tax payer today. If the Celtics ownership is not willing to pay up, we will not be contenders

This new age, salary cap run NBA is not as much fun. I watched Red build a team with shear Smart's, drafting the right guys, signing the right free agents at the end of their careers and drafting to make his team strong. Think about it,, Baily Howell, Wayne Embry, Tiny, the list goes on and on. And Everyone got a good shot at a title. I miss those days.

all info above from http://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/

by **Phil Pressey** Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:44 am

Marcus Smart shooting 5-14 will end the Marcus Smart era. There is only so much money to go around. I don't see anything keeping LeBron in Cleveland unless something changed with his ego. He'd have to let go of the ring chasing attitude. Ainge can't throw money around at everyone or the C's will become tapped out like the Cavs on a treadmill.

It's not just about Marcus Smart. It could eventually be about guys like Jaylen Brown within a few years and also Rozier will be up soon. Baynes and Smart are up next.

Maybe Fierce is right the Celtics should go for Davis. The article says the rules are made to prevent dynasties. So if a team can only spend big money on a few players, those few better be worth it.

A guy like Kyrie might want to improve at dishing out assists and being more of a team leader for offense. Maybe the Celtics are ultimately Jayson Tatum and no one else is safe in the new NBA money era. (I think Kyrie is here as part of the long-term core, but one never knows anymore. I go back and forth with Smart. It is easy to argue either way whether to keep or trade. It looks like Smart and Kyrie are out tonight, so this will be a good chance to evaluate Rozier. Horford will probably end up with 17 assists.)

This is why I think people should root for the title every year as long as there is reasonable hope for a Cinderella finish. Golden State will have tough decisions.

Could there become an NBA version of a George Steinbrenner? Is there a hard cap anywhere above the luxury tax?

Brad Stevens could be the true core. Stevens and Tatum. I guess just appreciate each season for its own story.

by **dboss** Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:25 pm

Phil Pressey wrote:Marcus Smart shooting 5-14 will end the Marcus Smart era. There is only so much money to go around. I don't see anything keeping LeBron in Cleveland unless something changed with his ego. He'd have to let go of the ring chasing attitude. Ainge can't throw money around at everyone or the C's will become tapped out like the Cavs on a treadmill.

It's not just about Marcus Smart. It could eventually be about guys like Jaylen Brown within a few years and also Rozier will be up soon. Baynes and Smart are up next.

Maybe Fierce is right the Celtics should go for Davis. The article says the rules are made to prevent dynasties. So if a team can only spend big money on a few players, those few better be worth it.

A guy like Kyrie might want to improve at dishing out assists and being more of a team leader for offense. Maybe the Celtics are ultimately Jayson Tatum and no one else is safe in the new NBA money era. (I think Kyrie is here as part of the long-term core, but one never knows anymore. I go back and forth with Smart. It is easy to argue either way whether to keep or trade. It looks like Smart and Kyrie are out tonight, so this will be a good chance to evaluate Rozier. Horford will probably end up with 17 assists.)

This is why I think people should root for the title every year as long as there is reasonable hope for a Cinderella finish. Golden State will have tough decisions.

Could there become an NBA version of a George Steinbrenner? Is there a hard cap anywhere above the luxury tax?

Brad Stevens could be the true core. Stevens and Tatum. I guess just appreciate each season for its own story.

Phil I think Boston will do everything that they can to retain Marcus. They have a figure in mind and i am sure it is a lot lower than what Marcus will want. But until he hits free agency and brings an offer to the table we really do not know what his market value is. This is not like the KO situation. KO was not retained because Boston needed cap space to sign Hayward. Boston has the flexibility to pay Marcus whatever they think that he is worth. Boston will not be a player in the free agent market for a number of years.

The Celtics are going to become a tax player. That is going to become a reality with or without Marcus.

If they resign Marcus for $12 that will push them up to around $113 million. They have a draft pick at the bottom and maybe one at the top. Let's say that adds another $6 to the mix which brings them up to $119. Then you have Baynes becoming a free agent. Baynes is making $4.3 million.

It seems that Boston would have to keep Baynes unless they hit the lotto again and draft a center.

The ideal situation is that Boston is able to secure the LAL pick and can part with Baynes. They could resign Marcus and maybe stay under the luxury tax until the 2019-20 season when the Kyrie option blows up.

Thanks to kdp59 for provided info on tax paying teams. It is part of remaining competitive. The key is not to commit long term money to a roster that cannot win. So for example Golden State is still on track but Cleveland is not.

dboss

by **swish** Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:56 pm

There's an awful lot of hypothetical out there about team future potential - with a lot based on a non predictable chain of events that can occur at any time. Easy does it with the long range crystal ball - one year at a time is difficult enough.

swish

by **dboss** Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:34 pm

swish wrote:There's an awful lot of hypothetical out there about team future potential - with a lot based on a non predictable chain of events that can occur at any time. Easy does it with the long range crystal ball - one year at a time is difficult enough.

swish

Swish. Numbers are numbers. Danny does not plan one year at a time. He envisioned the time line.

Dboss

by **swish** Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:53 pm

dboss wrote:
swish wrote:There's an awful lot of hypothetical out there about team future potential - with a lot based on a non predictable chain of events that can occur at any time. Easy does it with the long range crystal ball - one year at a time is difficult enough.

swish
Swish. Numbers are numbers. Danny does not plan one year at a time. He envisioned the time line.

Dboss

Not what he did in 07-08 when he went for the now rather then the future.

swish

by **dboss** Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:48 pm

Swish

This rebuild is different. Danny is keenly focused on sustainability.

When he put together the 07-08 team Pierce was 30 and Allen and Garnett were 31.

Dboss

by **Shamrock1000** Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:11 pm

dboss wrote:Swish

This rebuild is different. Danny is keenly focused on sustainability.

When he put together the 07-08 team Pierce was 30 and Allen and Garnett were 31.

Dboss

You are both right, and that is the challenge Danny faces - building for a sustained run and being ready to go all in if the time is right. It is just impossible to build a team for a few years down the road. As Swish said - too many unpredictable variables. First, there is talent evaluation - it is very difficult to really gauge how guys will turn out. Even if you nail this, there are injuries, chemistry problems, egos, other teams getting lucky, etc, etc. On the other hand, by always putting out a good sustainable product, you have a much better chance of everything coming together for a championship. Clearly Belichick and the Patriots are the model. Coach Bill never seems to "go all in", but every year his team is right in the mix, and clearly this approach has paid off. Not sure how this model translate to the NBA; contracts are not guaranteed in the NFL, so you can cut a disappointing/diminishing player without great financial repurcussions - not possible in the NBA. However, the prolonged success of the Spurs suggests it is possible. Each year, the Spurs are in the mix, and as a result they have 5 championships in the last 19 years. Remarkable. A common factor in both organizations is a gifted coach with the full backing of the organization (Celtics have this with Brad), and a transcendent star more interested in championships/legacy than individual stats/dollars (Celtics don't have this yet...). Danny is no doubt building for sustainability, but if he felt that time is right (e.g. Curry or Durant gets hurt, Celts are even better than expected), I suspect he would be willing to go all in. That is his job. It is exceedingly difficult. He seems to be especially good at it.

by **Sandpd** Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:35 pm

Shamrock1000 wrote:
dboss wrote:Swish

This rebuild is different. Danny is keenly focused on sustainability.

When he put together the 07-08 team Pierce was 30 and Allen and Garnett were 31.

Dboss

You are both right, and that is the challenge Danny faces - building for a sustained run and being ready to go all in if the time is right. It is just impossible to build a team for a few years down the road. As Swish said - too many unpredictable variables. First, there is talent evaluation - it is very difficult to really gauge how guys will turn out. Even if you nail this, there are injuries, chemistry problems, egos, other teams getting lucky, etc, etc. On the other hand, by always putting out a good sustainable product, you have a much better chance of everything coming together for a championship. Clearly Belichick and the Patriots are the model. Coach Bill never seems to "go all in", but every year his team is right in the mix, and clearly this approach has paid off. Not sure how this model translate to the NBA; contracts are not guaranteed in the NFL, so you can cut a disappointing/diminishing player without great financial repurcussions - not possible in the NBA. However, the prolonged success of the Spurs suggests it is possible. Each year, the Spurs are in the mix, and as a result they have 5 championships in the last 19 years. Remarkable. A common factor in both organizations is a gifted coach with the full backing of the organization (Celtics have this with Brad), and a transcendent star more interested in championships/legacy than individual stats/dollars (Celtics don't have this yet...). Danny is no doubt building for sustainability, but if he felt that time is right (e.g. Curry or Durant gets hurt, Celts are even better than expected), I suspect he would be willing to go all in. That is his job. It is exceedingly difficult. He seems to be especially good at it.

+1

If I only had a crystal ball to see the future, but from what has been shown so far, the future looks bright.

by **Phil Pressey** Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:39 pm

swish wrote:There's an awful lot of hypothetical out there about team future potential - with a lot based on a non predictable chain of events that can occur at any time. Easy does it with the long range crystal ball - one year at a time is difficult enough.

swish

I agree with you. Look at Isaiah. If he didn't have the hip problem, all that could have played out differently with probably no trade for Kyrie Irving or it would have looked much different.

That can work the other way, though, and why I am rooting for a title this year. Maybe Golden State gets an injury or is banged up in June. Maybe the C's are at full strength for the playoffs.

I'm starting to worry that sustainability is not possible past a limited window. You can only sign guys to so many years. You can only have so many great players.

I don't want Danny to get reckless, but perhaps he shouldn't try to be too cute trying to match Red or something similar for sustained dominance.

by **swish** Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:39 pm

Be happy about your teams potential but beware of potential dark clouds that tend to go unnoticed in your crystal ball. I'll start to think about next year only, after this season is wrapped up - I retired my biased crystal ball many years ago. I miss the fun of venturing an opinion but it sure does save a lot of embarrassing explanations.

by **Sandpd** Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:21 am

Swish, I don't have a crystal ball, but rued if I only had one. What a Face

Seeing the glass as half-full rather than half-empty is how I look at the C's right now. Regardless, the C's are currently in a lot better shape than most other franchises. Ainge currently has a talented young nucleus and it's a good one to build with for the future. Their window of opportunity is just starting to open. They are a team on the rise banging, not just rubbing elbows with the elite of the league. So yes, w/o peering into a crystal ball their future looks bright to me.

Now I'm wishing on that genie in a bottle for a big and a scorer who can put up instant points or a big who can score. It's probably too much to ask for but . . .

by **steve3344** Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:46 am

Phil Pressey wrote:Marcus Smart shooting 5-14 will end the Marcus Smart era. There is only so much money to go around. I don't see anything keeping LeBron in Cleveland unless something changed with his ego. He'd have to let go of the ring chasing attitude. Ainge can't throw money around at everyone or the C's will become tapped out like the Cavs on a treadmill.

It's not just about Marcus Smart. It could eventually be about guys like Jaylen Brown within a few years and also Rozier will be up soon. Baynes and Smart are up next.

Maybe Fierce is right the Celtics should go for Davis. The article says the rules are made to prevent dynasties. So if a team can only spend big money on a few players, those few better be worth it.

A guy like Kyrie might want to improve at dishing out assists and being more of a team leader for offense. Maybe the Celtics are ultimately Jayson Tatum and no one else is safe in the new NBA money era. (I think Kyrie is here as part of the long-term core, but one never knows anymore. I go back and forth with Smart. It is easy to argue either way whether to keep or trade. It looks like Smart and Kyrie are out tonight, so this will be a good chance to evaluate Rozier. Horford will probably end up with 17 assists.)

This is why I think people should root for the title every year as long as there is reasonable hope for a Cinderella finish. Golden State will have tough decisions.

Could there become an NBA version of a George Steinbrenner? Is there a hard cap anywhere above the luxury tax?

Brad Stevens could be the true core. Stevens and Tatum. I guess just appreciate each season for its own story.

"It looks like Smart and Kyrie are out tonight, so this will be a good chance to evaluate Rozier."

How'd that go?

by **Phil Pressey** Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:55 pm

steve3344 wrote:"It looks like Smart and Kyrie are out tonight, so this will be a good chance to evaluate Rozier."

How'd that go?

I wouldn't have said that if you hadn't made the thread, "Probably no Kyrie or Marcus Smart tomorrow."

What I saw was that Smart is not good at running a team and Rozier is worse with Larkin having perhaps a bit of potential for pg skills.

It showed the value in having Turner and Pressey, guys who knew how to jump start an offense.

Smart has shown pg skills in the past, but he has certainly regressed at it this year to the point in which the skill seems to have vanished.

I also think the reason Irving works is because of Horford. Take away Al's ability to add in seven or so assists with low to no turnovers and then Kyrie becomes KoMe Bryant ball.

by **dboss** Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:21 pm

Regarding sustainability, not only do the Celtics have a solid youthful core they also still have future first rounders and they have staggered their contracts in such a way they can remain competitive for a long time.

For example when Al likely opts into his $30 million contract, the following year will free up money for Brown and then Tatum the following year with Hayward's money coming off the books. Add a 1st rounder here and there and the team will remain competitive.

None of us know what the future will hold but I am pretty certain that Danny has a short, medium and long range plan to make sure the Celtics remain competitive. Danny did not do it this way the last time he rebuilt.

dboss

by **Phil Pressey** Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:26 pm

dboss wrote:Regarding sustainability, not only do the Celtics have a solid youthful core they also still have future first rounders and they have staggered their contracts in such a way they can remain competitive for a long time.

For example when Al likely opts into his $30 million contract, the following year will free up money for Brown and then Tatum the following year with Hayward's money coming off the books. Add a 1st rounder here and there and the team will remain competitive.

None of us know what the future will hold but I am pretty certain that Danny has a short, medium and long range plan to make sure the Celtics remain competitive. Danny did not do it this way the last time he rebuilt.

dboss

I think barring bad luck the Celtics are guaranteed to be a better than average team for the next ten years.

Is Golden State sustainable?

Cleveland seems tapped out.

Washington, Toronto and Memphis were good teams for many years without much to show for it. Atlanta and Indiana had spurts. Houston and the Clippers. There have been a lot of good, mostly sustainable teams who never won anything.

I look at the Celtics as currently in year one of a three year Al Horford window. I think the "see me in June" line is really asking which teams will be healthy and playing well for the playoffs. GS is the best, but one never knows. Swish mentioned unforeseen events can ruin a crystal ball.

Hayward continues to heal.

Tatum and Brown are similar to Curry's below market deal which is how GS was able to do what they did. They got lucky as Danny did with the draft. Knock on wood Brown and Tatum are as good as they have looked in early NBA days for them.

If both of them are great, that's like having two Curry's.

You're right, Kyrie is up next. He already makes a lot of money. Smart and Baynes. Danny's job is to keep finding cheap talent like Theis, Baynes, Morris, Rozier and Smart. Players become too expensive.

Yeah, the draft picks will be nice with good odds of landing rotation quality or for trades.

I don't mind if the C's lose some games as long as they are healthy when it matters. The rotation goes nine deep for quality, imho. Stevens should force an extra practice and have them practicing passing with assists and to knock it off with lazy turnovers. This season is still a developing story. End of rant. Wiping spittle.

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