Theis Has Become One of NBA's Elite Role Players

http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/post-012918-theis-has-become-one-of-nbas-elite-role-players?sf180692000=1








Theis Has Become One of NBA's Elite Role Players






By Marc D'Amico |  @Marc_DAmico
Celtics.com




January 30, 2018





DENVER – Daniel Theis has quietly become one of the most effective role players in the NBA.


The 6-foot-9 German forward, whom the Celtics quietly signed to a low-cost, high-reward deal this past June, is adjusting to the NBA game quite miraculously. He has been good, at the very least, all season, but he has been great throughout January.


Monday’s game against Denver, during which the big man totaled 11 points, four assists, three rebounds, a steal and a blocked shot during only 21 minutes of action, was just the latest installment of a month-long stretch during which Theis has made an unmistakably positive impact on the Celtics.


“He’s a winner,” said teammate Al Horford. “He’s playing like that, and those are the kind of guys that you want to have on your group.”


Through 10 games this month, Theis has averaged 13.5 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.4 steals per 36 minutes. During those contests, he has shot at an efficient 57.8 percent rate from the field and 50.0 percent rate from long range. Those are outstanding all-around numbers for a role player.


Theis has brought so much to the Celtics every night, and he’s a big reason why they sit atop the East with a 36-15 record.


“Man, Theis is my guy. Not only what he does on the floor but off the floor,” Jaylen Brown, who hit the game-winner Monday night, said with a smile before rattling off a long list of what Theis brings to the table. “Good energy, good guy, always smiling, making jokes, great energy on the floor, what he does in the pick-and-roll in the seams, makes the right plays defensively, he battles, and he should probably get a little bit more credit for it.”


He’s not flying under the radar anymore. Not with the way he’s playing.


As great as Theis has been all month, he has been even better during Boston’s last seven games. He has caught a hot streak from long range, where he shot 53.8 percent during that stretch, and he made and attempted career highs from beyond the arc Monday night with his 3-for-6 effort.


Theis has also become a high-level passer at his position. He dished out at least two assists during six of his last seven games, culminating with a career-best four Monday night. He had only six such performances during his first 41 games in the NBA.


Theis averaged 5.2 assists per 36 minutes during Boston’s recent seven-game stretch. To put that into perspective, Horford ranks second in the league among centers with an average of 5.8 assists per 36 minutes. Theis is right on his heels.


“I don’t think he’s going to be making the Larry Bird flip pass anytime soon,” Brad Stevens joked, “but he makes the right extra pass, he looks for guys, he can roll and catch it in the seam and kick it out. So he knows what to do.”


The big surprise in all of this is how quickly the German big man has adjusted to the NBA. “People forget, because we’ve got JT (Jayson Tatum) as a rookie,” Brown reminded reporters, “but Theis is a rook, too.”


Horford has been impressed by how seamless Theis has integrated himself into the Celtics. He was asked what has surprised him about Theis thus far, and he replied, “I just think his ability to transition to the NBA. I know that he played in a good league over [in Europe], but it doesn’t compare to coming here and having an impact.”


Theis, now 25 years old, was playing overseas at age 18. He credits that experience for helping to prepare him for his first NBA season.


“Maybe it’s because I played seven years professionally, so I know my role,” he said Monday night. “I know my strengths, so it’s easy for me to fit into the system. I would say that makes it easy for me.”


The game has looked easy for Theis throughout January. He has become one of the most effective and efficient role players in the league, providing the Celtics with reliable play at both ends of the court on a nightly basis.


“One of the best things you can be called in this league is consistent,” said Stevens, “and he’s very consistent.”


Few reserve big men in the NBA have been as consistent as Theis has been throughout January. He has been everything the Celtics could have hoped for, and then some.




bob


Jared Weiss @JaredWeissNBA

yesterday

Stevens on Theis via @NBCSCeltics: "He's been great in the way you expect him to be from a skill set standpoint & activity standpoint. But he does it every night. We talked about one of the best things you can be called in this league is consistent & he is very consistent."
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dboss wrote:There goes that unproven 36 minute stats.  It is one of the most bogus statistical measurements used to evaluate a player's productivity.

However Theis has been pretty solid all year long and he has played 16.3 MPG in January over an 11 game stretch.  He's averaging 6.1 PPG and 5 rebounds.  His MPG are up by 3 as compared to his season average.

What I like most about him is his energy and quick defensive rotation abilities.  He is hardly a rim protector but he never backs down and challenges everything at the rim.  Also he is the fastest front court player up and down the court who would greatly benefit if playing in a more intense fast breaking style offense.

dboss

dboss,

Why does this refute the /36mpg stat?  The weakness in the /36mpg stat is when you compare players who play close to 36mpg to players who play half that many, but why do you think it is bogus in showing relative efficiencies between players who play the same position and roughly the same number of minutes?



bob



.

When he signed with the Cs, I had no idea who he was or what he could do. I remember thinking something like "yeah, so?", but he has definitely been a way bigger contributor this season than I ever would have thought.

He does a lot of things well, and now I often watch him and think, "wonder how his stats would look if he played more?"

Super signing by Ainge and a big reason why turning over 11 of 15 roster spots never turned into even the smallest issue this season.

I remember that not long time ago He was labeled as an unknown from nowhere and from the beginning I told you that this kind of young but experienced player from Europe are ready enough to help a team in the NBA.

About the per 36 min... To me it seems like simple addition. But if Theis really played 36 min/game, I don't necessarily think his numbers would shake out the same way. The issue with that statistical calculation is that it assumes any given player is always going to perform at the same level game after game during this time frame. Starters and superstars are more consistent but rotation guys and rookies? Not so much.


KJ

k_j_88 wrote:About the per 36 min... To me it seems like simple addition. But if Theis really played 36 min/game, I don't necessarily think his numbers would shake out the same way. The issue with that statistical calculation is that it assumes any given player is always going to perform at the same level game after game during this time frame. Starters and superstars are more consistent but rotation guys and rookies? Not so much.


KJ

KJ,

/36mpg is a normalizing stat that shows efficiency between comparables.  It isn't for comparing non-comparable 18mpg bench players to 36mpg starters, but to other bench players who play comparable positions in comparable minutes.  You could look at it as /minute too but that brings the same caveat which is that you cannot take one minute and multiply it by 36 "just because".  



bob


.

bobheckler wrote:

k_j_88 wrote:About the per 36 min... To me it seems like simple addition. But if Theis really played 36 min/game, I don't necessarily think his numbers would shake out the same way. The issue with that statistical calculation is that it assumes any given player is always going to perform at the same level game after game during this time frame. Starters and superstars are more consistent but rotation guys and rookies? Not so much.


KJ

KJ,

/36mpg is a normalizing stat that shows efficiency between comparables.  It isn't for comparing non-comparable 18mpg bench players to 36mpg starters, but to other bench players who play comparable positions in comparable minutes.  You could look at it as /minute too but that brings the same caveat which is that you cannot take one minute and multiply it by 36 "just because".  



bob


.

BobH,

No, I wouldn't compare a 36 mpg and a 18 mpg player. What I'm saying is for the 36 mpg player these numbers hold more weight due to the fact that said player is not only getting minutes consistent with how this stat is calculated, but is also likely to be more consistent with their play, too.

So for the 12-18 mpg players, I don't know if the 36 mpg statistic holds up because these players aren't necessarily going to perform at the estimated 36 mpg level if they played that many minutes. Granted, they play the minutes they do because they aren't suited to play more. I think we would see considerable statistical drop-off.

That being said, Theis is showing a lot of growth on both ends of the floor. If anything, I think he should be getting more minutes more consistently.


KJ

international wrote:I remember that not long time ago He was labeled as an unknown from nowhere and from the beginning I told you that this kind of young but experienced player from Europe are ready enough to help a team in the NBA.

No doubt you have done an excellent job keeping this board up to date on emerging Euro talent esp if it concerns the Celtics. Thank you yet once again.

Not a big stat fan and certainly not a fan of the 36 min stat. Number one is that no one plays 36 minutes on the Celtics. lol I think it sets a false expectation. I find stats helpful in informing my opinion rather than defining it.

I'm happy knowing that Daniel is earning more minutes and is now trusted to play late in the game. He is only now starting to close in on playing the way he did those years in Germany. Part of that is that he has flattened his NBA learning curve rather quickly and the other is that he is getting enuf minutes on a regular basis to show what he can do.

One of those little things that has me impressed and was mentioned is how much he enjoys playing the game. He often has a smile on his face, from pure happiness at just being able to play. You can't smile like that if you are not playing confident and relaxed, and you can't be that confident and relaxed if you aren't enjoying yourself.

By all that we have seen so far, more minutes please.

I really don't care about stats. I watch a player with my eyes, and Daniel Theis is one of the best pickups from overseas that we have seen on the Celtics. He is getting better and better every game, and finds himself in at important times in the fourth quarter. I am comfortable with this as he does his job and does it well.

A terrific pickup for us, thank Austin Ainge for this. He goes overseas to watch players during the season and was a big part of bringing Theis here.

RosalieTCeltics wrote:I really don't care about stats.  I watch a player with my eyes, and Daniel Theis is one of the best pickups from overseas that we have seen on the Celtics.  He is getting better and better every game, and finds himself in at important times in the fourth quarter.  I am comfortable with this as he does his job and does it well.  

A terrific pickup for us, thank Austin Ainge for this. He goes overseas to watch players during the season and was a big part of bringing Theis here.

Rosalie,

We hired an International Scout named Benas Matkevicius that does most of the work. Austin Ainge is the Director of Player Personnel, whatever the heck that means. Matkevicius has worked for the Lithuanian team and for CSKA Moscow prior to coming to the Celtics.



bob



.

What I read last year was that he spent a ton of time overseas, that is why I gave him props. Touche' to the guy you mentioned, I thank him greatly as Theis is fast becoming a fan favorite

k_j_88 wrote:About the per 36 min... To me it seems like simple addition. But if Theis really played 36 min/game, I don't necessarily think his numbers would shake out the same way. The issue with that statistical calculation is that it assumes any given player is always going to perform at the same level game after game during this time frame. Starters and superstars are more consistent but rotation guys and rookies? Not so much.


KJ

KJ,

Which is one of the reasons why I put it on my growing list of Stupid Stats.

Beyond that, yeah, I like what we've seen from Theis.

Regards

NYCelt wrote:

k_j_88 wrote:About the per 36 min... To me it seems like simple addition. But if Theis really played 36 min/game, I don't necessarily think his numbers would shake out the same way. The issue with that statistical calculation is that it assumes any given player is always going to perform at the same level game after game during this time frame. Starters and superstars are more consistent but rotation guys and rookies? Not so much.


KJ

KJ,

Which is one of the reasons why I put it on my growing list of Stupid Stats.

Beyond that, yeah, I like what we've seen from Theis.

Regards

Over a period of a few games you cannot count on any stats beyond what you can tell from that small snapshot.  We're now 51 games into the season and all stats, including the ones showing that a player is never getting off the bench, start to gain weight.  That doesn't mean that players are like Swiss clockwork and do the exact same numbers in the exact same minutes every game, it's means over time and play that's their mean.  That's why coaches, including Brad, love players like Daniel Theis.  When Brad puts him in he has confidence he'll get what he thinks he'll get because Theis is relatively consistent/minute of play, but not precisely consistent.  


bob



.

Below is a complete statistical run down of players 6'9 or taller that are averaging between 10.8 and 16.8 minutes per game. At 13.8 Theis is at the midway point.

http://bkref.com/tiny/VmEL4

Solid record of how he compares vs his peers.

swish

swish wrote:Below is a complete statistical run down of players 6'9 or taller that are averaging between 10.8 and 16.8 minutes per game. At 13.8 Theis is at the midway point.

  http://bkref.com/tiny/VmEL4

    Solid record of how he compares vs his peers.

  swish

Swish,

But what about players between 6' 9.5" and 6' 10.25" with red hair, born on Tuesdays, to mothers named Sarah?

Kidding, of course I know you'll recall my complete disregard for about half of the many basketball stats despite my belief in the value of most baseball numbers.

I hope you are well.

Regards

NOTE: Truck Day for all of you Red Sox fans here is February 5.

NYCelt wrote:

swish wrote:Below is a complete statistical run down of players 6'9 or taller that are averaging between 10.8 and 16.8 minutes per game. At 13.8 Theis is at the midway point.

  http://bkref.com/tiny/VmEL4

    Solid record of how he compares vs his peers.

  swish

Swish,

But what about players between 6' 9.5" and 6' 10.25" with red hair, born on Tuesdays, to mothers named Sarah?

Kidding, of course I know you'll recall my complete disregard for about half of the many basketball stats despite my belief in the value of most baseball numbers.

I hope you are well.

Regards

NOTE: Truck Day for all of you Red Sox fans here is February 5.

I'm just fine NYCelt. Every one seems to have their own way of viewing player comparisons - I'm just not comfortable offering opinions that I can't support with at least a little supporting evidence. With hours of free time on my hand each day I enjoy the practice of doing considerable research on sporting matters.  Perhaps its because I sometimes wonder if the accuracy of my recollections of the distant past may be tainted by my age.

  swish

By the way NYCelt -Why the different feeling on Baseball stats vs Basketball stats ?

Swish,

Glad to hear you're doing well. I don't think there's much wrong with the accuracy of your recollections!

My somewhat bi-polar view of statistical analysis in baseball versus basketball is a mixture of personal experience and my view of how each sport is played. For what it's worth, I view football somewhere in between, but perhaps closer to basketball. I also always have to disclose that my experience is far deeper with baseball and football as a player and coach. Although for some reason I ended up being asked to coach AAU basketball this winter and early spring. Go figure.

To me basketball holds far more variables because of the dynamic in individual matchups. In baseball, I know what a given pitcher throws, and depending on lefty or righty, I can look at a given hitters sweet spots and apply things like perceived versus real velocity to determine a range of outcomes based on attempted pitch location or break. In basketball, I might know if a player tends to drive left or right in a given situation, but it's not a one-to-one picture. There might be help defense, or a zone versus man. Too many variables to tell me that if I try to get my man to drive left, I have a given probability of success.

That's just one minor sampling. I'd almost be better off saying it's like ice cream, some prefer chocolate over strawberry. In a basketball equivalent, you might say I prefer the eye test! I certainly respect all the quants out there, it's just my own taste and personal bias.

That's about as far as I should attempt to ramble on this one!

Regards

NYCelt wrote:Swish,

Glad to hear you're doing well. I don't think there's much wrong with the accuracy of your recollections!

My somewhat bi-polar view of statistical analysis in baseball versus basketball is a mixture of personal experience and my view of how each sport is played. For what it's worth, I view football somewhere in between, but perhaps closer to basketball. I also always have to disclose that my experience is far deeper with baseball and football as a player and coach. Although for some reason I ended up being asked to coach AAU basketball this winter and early spring. Go figure.

To me basketball holds far more variables because of the dynamic in individual matchups. In baseball, I know what a given pitcher throws, and depending on lefty or righty, I can look at a given hitters sweet spots and apply things like perceived versus real velocity to determine a range of outcomes based on attempted pitch location or break. In basketball, I might know if a player tends to drive left or right in a given situation, but it's not a one-to-one picture. There might be help defense, or a zone versus man. Too many variables to tell me that if I try to get my man to drive left, I have a given probability of success.

That's just one minor sampling. I'd almost be better off saying it's like ice cream, some prefer chocolate over strawberry. In a basketball equivalent, you might say I prefer the eye test! I certainly respect all the quants out there, it's just my own taste and personal bias.

That's about as far as I should attempt to ramble on this one!

Regards

NYCelt.

Looks like we differ on how we arrive at our opinions. I doubt if there's a right or wrong way. It's all about what one is comfortable with.

Above in regards to your below comment -

" you might say I prefer the eye test! I certainly respect all the quants out there, it's just my own taste and personal bias."

Perhaps some day we can swap some thoughts on Baseball and Football - both of which I have spent a lifetime enjoying.

swish

Theis certainly played very well last night against the Knicks.

I really like the way he never seems to try to do things beyond what he is capable of doing. Very disciplined on both ends of the court, plays with great energy all the time, can score when he should be scoring, etc.

Again, I knew nothing of him last summer, but he certainly could be worthy of signing for a longer term contract.

swish wrote:

NYCelt wrote:Swish,

Glad to hear you're doing well. I don't think there's much wrong with the accuracy of your recollections!

My somewhat bi-polar view of statistical analysis in baseball versus basketball is a mixture of personal experience and my view of how each sport is played. For what it's worth, I view football somewhere in between, but perhaps closer to basketball. I also always have to disclose that my experience is far deeper with baseball and football as a player and coach. Although for some reason I ended up being asked to coach AAU basketball this winter and early spring. Go figure.

To me basketball holds far more variables because of the dynamic in individual matchups. In baseball, I know what a given pitcher throws, and depending on lefty or righty, I can look at a given hitters sweet spots and apply things like perceived versus real velocity to determine a range of outcomes based on attempted pitch location or break. In basketball, I might know if a player tends to drive left or right in a given situation, but it's not a one-to-one picture. There might be help defense, or a zone versus man. Too many variables to tell me that if I try to get my man to drive left, I have a given probability of success.

That's just one minor sampling. I'd almost be better off saying it's like ice cream, some prefer chocolate over strawberry. In a basketball equivalent, you might say I prefer the eye test! I certainly respect all the quants out there, it's just my own taste and personal bias.

That's about as far as I should attempt to ramble on this one!

Regards

 NYCelt.  

    Looks like we differ on how we arrive at our opinions. I doubt if there's a right or wrong way. It's all about what one is comfortable with.

             Above in regards to your below comment -

      " you might say I prefer the eye test! I certainly respect all the quants out there, it's just my own taste and personal bias."

      Perhaps some day we can swap some thoughts on Baseball and Football -  both of which I have spent a lifetime enjoying.

   swish

Swish,

I know we've mentioned that before, but we should find a way and the time to make that happen.

Perhaps on line, perhaps on one of my annual trips to The Cape if you're anywhere around the MassPike, 495 or 25. You never know; depending on his summer travel schedule, you could get 112288 in on that one too.

Regards