How the heck is Marcus Smart this important?

https://hardwoodhoudini.com/2018/02/17/heck-marcus-smart-important/



How the heck is Marcus Smart this important?



by Jesse Collings10 hours ago





It can be difficult trying to figure out why Marcus Smart is so valuable to the Boston Celtics

When Marcus Smart went down with a lacerated hand on Jan. 23, some fans took it as a potential positive for the Boston Celtics; Smart was a frustrating player who settled for low-percentage shots and there was a belief that the team could improve with Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown handling more of the load on both ends of the floor.

The results are mixed; the Celtics are 6-5 since Smart went down, and that has included blowout losses to their two biggest rivals in the East; Toronto and Cleveland. Could Smart have made a difference in those games? What kind of value does Smart provide to the Celtics?


The Celtics did not trade Smart at the deadline despite rumors that the guard, whose contract expires at the end of the season, could be on the move. Smart provides the Celtics with some obvious value, but there was a belief that the team could benefit from some Smart-less time. What does he actually bring to the table, and could the Celtics reasonably replace that with their current roster?

Smart’s statistics are mediocre; he is averaging 10 ppg, 3 rpg, 4 apg and has some truly ugly shooting numbers, 35 percent from the field and 29 percent from downtown. Smart’s shooting has and always will be his Achilles heel, and despite his poor numbers he is still attempting 4.5 threes per game.

For the sake of comparison, Jayson Tatum (who is shooting 43 percent from outside this year) is only attempting 3 threes a game. Smart’s reliance on shooting threes while better shooters watch him is number one on the list of complaints about him.

Interestingly enough, the advanced metrics show that Smart isn’t as big of a disaster on offense as his traditional stats suggest. His offensive rating (meaning the points per 100 possessions the Celtics score when Smart is on the floor) is 107.1, only a smidge below the 107.3 points per 100 possessions the Celtics average when Smart is not on the floor.

Despite his poor shooting, Smart is able to grade out as a passable offensive player thanks to his playmaking ability (his 4.7 assists per game are third on the team behind Kyrie Irving and Al Horford) and his willingness to be versatile on defense, guarding players from 6’ to 6’8”, freeing up the lineups he is in to find the best five-man unit on offense.

Smart’s real value for the Celtics comes at the defensive end. When Smart is on the floor the Celtics hold opponents to 101 points per 100 possessions, compared to opponents scoring 105.7 points per 100 possessions when Smart sits.


At 6’4” and 220lbs and with long arms, Smart has the speed and length to bother the quickest of point guards and the strength to battle with larger wing players. On defense Smart effortlessly slides around picks and his strength and toughness keep him from being posted up by bigger players.



During the Celtics’ last ten games without Smart, the defense has suffered. While Rozier was considered a good enough defender to cover for Smart, it was obvious that the team missed him greatly on that end of the floor. In Boston’s loss to Toronto, the Raptors starting backcourt scored a combined 38 points, in under three quarters, to turn the game into a blowout. Against Cleveland, new pick-ups Rodney Hood and Jordan Clarkson blitzed Boston for 32 points.


Weak performances such as those have shifted fan opinion on Smart a bit. While fans may have been interested in seeing the Celtics play without Smart, the results have been ugly enough that they can’t wait to get him back.

Dan Greenberg

@StoolGreenie
Remember when tons of Celtics twitter was ready to get rid of Marcus Smart after Rozier had the triple double?

The Celtics have been getting punked for almost two straight weeks because they play soft. You know who doesn't play soft? Marcus Smart

5:47 PM - Feb 14, 2018
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During a six point loss to Indiana on Feb. 9, the Celtics were crushed by Indiana shooting guard Victor Oladipo, who scored 35 points, 18 of which came in the second half. One would think that having their best perimeter defender would have increased the Celtics’ odds of winning and swing that game.

Smart can be a nuisance, and his poor shot selection and brick-laying from deep can make even the most ardent Celtics supporter roll their eyes. However, Boston also relies a lot on Smart’s defensive ability and his playmaking ability on offense. The team is built on their league-best defense, and Smart is arguably their best defender and certainly is their best option against the high scoring guards of the Eastern Conference. If the Celtics want to compete in May and June, Smart is going to have to play a big role.



bob


.

Probably my shortest ever response.

Mr. Collings, Marcus Smart brings the "it" factor to the Cs.  

I know I’ve been knocking his flaws, but make no mistake I love his defense and intangibles. I also loved Tony Allen and hope we can keep MS, just hoping he is not gonna demand the Brinks truck and get it from another franchise.

Most fans cannot wait for him to get back.  He has enough glue to tighten things up.

cow,

I doubt that any guy who we may consider a mid level player (like Smart) who has holes in his overall game is going to come anywhere near a "brinks truck" type of salary that Thomas was looking for last year. Guys like Turner scored well more because of their free agent timing than they were worth what they got ($17M/year for Turner).

The budgets around the league have tightened up since the giant free agent spending of two summers ago, and the Lou Williams (20 point scorer, but still not a complete player) signing for $8.? M per season for three years will be much more be the bench mark for such guys. Marcus Smart may be the polar opposite of Williams, but I doubt he will get better offers than what Williams just got.

This should be great for the Celtics as they certainly know that Smart is much more important to their team than Williams is to the Clippers moving forward.

wideclyde wrote:cow,

I doubt that any guy who we may consider a mid level player (like Smart) who has holes in his overall game is going to come anywhere near a "brinks truck" type of salary that Thomas was looking for last year.  Guys like Turner scored well more because of their free agent timing than they were worth what they got ($17M/year for Turner).

The budgets around the league have tightened up since the giant free agent spending of two summers ago, and the Lou Williams (20 point scorer, but still not a complete player) signing for $8.? M per season for three years will be much more be the bench mark for such guys.  Marcus Smart may be the polar opposite of Williams, but I doubt he will get better offers than what Williams just got.

This should be great for the Celtics as they certainly know that Smart is much more important to their team than Williams is to the Clippers moving forward.

Hope your right buddy, if the core of this team can remain intact, great things are ahead for us.

I've wanted him starting all season at the point.

Keeping my fingers crossed that Brad makes that change when he comes back.

Kyrie at the 2 spot is magic, IMO.

Brad, please listen to kdp59 and start Smart at PG, Irving at SG. Hawk

kdp59 wrote:I've wanted him starting all season at the point.

Keeping my fingers crossed that Brad makes that change when he comes back.

Kyrie at the  2 spot is magic, IMO.

kdp,

I agree with you. When it comes to the key skills of a point guard, passing and setting others up, Kyrie is no better than third best on the team. As a scorer, he's the best we have, and among the best in the league. His handle, ability to shoot off the pass, and get his own shot make for an excellent 2-guard/wing.

Just a guess, but I doubt there is any change in the rotation post All-Star break. Given the pre-break slide, I think Stevens would have made changes to stem the losses if he saw it as a good idea. Of course he didn't have Smart available, but I think he could have gone to Rozier for more minutes at point if he wanted to experiment with that kind of change. I do think the return of Smart, and continued development of Brown as a defender, should help. Minutes for Monroe, who could increase second chance points by boosting offensive rebounding, would also be a plus.

Regards

I would much rather see Rozier at the point - over Smart.

swish

There are stretches of the game where both Rozier and Kyrie are 1, 2.

I do not expect to see a lot of changes.  We will continue to see either Baynes or Morris start.  Smart is probably going to assume his 6th man role and sub in for Tatum.  I think Terry has earned more minutes.  Integrating Monroe is the biggest issue for coach Stevens.

How about this possibility. Haywood and Tatum share the small forward - Irving and brown share the shooting guard - Rozier and Irving share the point guard and Smart fill in the those 3 positions as a defensive specialist.

swish

I don't want to minimize Jaylen's minutes Swish.

worcester wrote:I don't want to minimize Jaylen's minutes Swish.

Would not be a big problem - both Hayward and Tatum have also played some Power Forward - Hayward in his early years and Tatum last year.

  swish

swish wrote: How about this possibility.  Haywood and Tatum share the small forward - Irving and brown share the shooting guard - Rozier and Irving share the point guard and Smart fill in the those 3 positions as a defensive specialist.

  swish

did you mean for next year or do you see Hayward back before the season ends?

IMO, Hayward, Tatum and Brown are primarily SF's. there was a thread a while back where I pointed out most of Browns minutes are still played at SF this year.

anyhow, I could see where Danny makes a play in the off-season, to add a high end big man in a trade using one of the three players we have at SF now.

I know it's not something that most here would agree with , depending on who comes back. Reality is next years team is still unbalanced and fixing that will likely not come from late in the draft or form a high end Free agent signing.

kdp59 wrote:

swish wrote: How about this possibility.  Haywood and Tatum share the small forward - Irving and brown share the shooting guard - Rozier and Irving share the point guard and Smart fill in the those 3 positions as a defensive specialist.

  swish

did you mean for next year or do you see Hayward back before the season ends?

IMO, Hayward, Tatum and Brown are primarily SF's. there was a thread a while back where I pointed out most of Browns minutes are still played at SF this year.

anyhow, I could see where Danny makes a play in the off-season, to add a high end big man in a trade using one of the three players we have at SF now.

I know it's not something that most here would agree with , depending on who comes back. Reality is  next years team is still unbalanced  and fixing that will likely not come from late in the draft or form a high end Free agent signing.

kdp59

I don't have an opinion about Hayward's return date. Using any of our 3 talented small forwards in a trade to get a center could be very hard to do. I would think that all 3 would command a reasonably highly valued center in return - and which team, right now, has a spare high quality center kicking around - that fulfills the matching salary requirement ?. Trading away surplus strength at one position to strengthen another makes sense, but making it happen can be difficult. Looks to me like they will have to pick up extra minutes at another position.

swish

well, Hayward for the Brow works cap wise...just sayin'

kdp59 wrote:well, Hayward for the Brow works cap wise...just sayin'

kdp59

And that's about it for match ups between the two.

swish

kdp59 wrote:

swish wrote: How about this possibility.  Haywood and Tatum share the small forward - Irving and brown share the shooting guard - Rozier and Irving share the point guard and Smart fill in the those 3 positions as a defensive specialist.

  swish

did you mean for next year or do you see Hayward back before the season ends?

IMO, Hayward, Tatum and Brown are primarily SF's. there was a thread a while back where I pointed out most of Browns minutes are still played at SF this year.

anyhow, I could see where Danny makes a play in the off-season, to add a high end big man in a trade using one of the three players we have at SF now.

I know it's not something that most here would agree with , depending on who comes back. Reality is  next years team is still unbalanced  and fixing that will likely not come from late in the draft or form a high end Free agent signing.

kdp,

I think that's an almost universal expectation. To take it a step further, most talking heads seem to be of the opinion that among the pairs of Brown/Tatum and Smart/Rozier, there are two assets that will be traded to upgrade the front-court. This was discussed, most recently that I caught, by Paul Pierce and Jalen Rose. Not that that means everything, just a couple of, hopefully, more informed sources.

With Danny Ainge, I'd almost treat it as a given. And I think you're right, we're three deep at SF. My own expectation is that Hayward will mostly play 2-guard/wing next year, with Tatum at SF/wing. I think Brown will be traded since he has fairly high value, but not Tatum's apparent ceiling. If there is a way to obtain a strong defender at PF/C, I would expect to see Smart go, after/if he's signed, since I think he has the highest perceived value. If a strong interior defender can not be obtained through draft or trade, I would expect Brown and Rozier to be departing, with every effort made to retain Smart.

Just the way I think makes the most sense. Of course, with Danny Ainge, he could trade Irving, Horford and Tatum, come back with the top draft pick, Giannis Antetokuonmpo, the ghost of George Mikan, and Greg Popovich's beard, and it would be just another day in the front office.

Regards

I know there is a narrative that some fans believe.  The idea that the Celtics are overloaded at the wing and therefore can afford to move one of them.

I totally disagree with that narrative.  With or without Hayward, the Celtics are prone to start two SF.  When Hayward returns they will continue to start two and sometime 3 depending on matchups.  In either case the Celtics will have an option to have a quality SF coming off the bench.  Without Hayward we do not have that option.  

I do not see Danny trading either Brown or Tatum during the off season and it is highly unlikely that they would trade Hayward.

The Celtics have enough first round draft picks to add a quality big.  I also do not think that they have a shot at Anthony Davis or the Greek Freak.   Both of those players are franchise players for their respective teams and both are under contract for a while so their teams are not worried about losing them to FA.  And even if those franchises decided to rebuild it is likely that any rebuild would be structured around those franchise players.

I think that Celtics fans are very impatient.  Again the big assets are those 1st rounders.  Teams that want to improve but do not have draft assets have to either go the FA route or make trades.  The Celtics can draft a quality big and still keep the core intact.

dboss,

My example of Greek Freak in trade was purely tongue-in-cheek.

I do believe Ainge will trade assets to improve the roster, however. I would expect package deals of players and picks. I think to get one of the three or four bigs most worth drafting, Boston will need to move up and lock in to guarantee a top 4 or 5 pick. That will have to come after the Ping-Pong balls.

Regards

NYCelt

tough and cheek huh. ok I got it.

I could see Danny trading up in the draft and using multiple first rounders to get there.

I still believe they would not part with either Jaylen or Jayson to accomplish that.