A turnaround needed

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A turnaround needed

Post by swish on Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:28 pm

While the defense has been a plus factor since 2016-17 the offense has been in decline over the last 2 years. Against a league average points of 105.6 in 2016-17 The Celts were scoring 108.0 points while allowing 105.4 (points scored on the plus side) Then came the drop off in scoring in 2017-18 - against a league ave of 106.3 points the Celtics points scoring fell to 104.0 as the defense only yielded 100.4 per game - and now in 2018-19, in only a few games, against a league average of 111.0, the Celtics points scored per game is only at 106.1 while the defense is doing great  by only allowing 103.8 points per game. Fortunately there are still a ton of games to go so their is no need to panic. Going hand in hand with the drop off in points scored is the fact that the shooting percentages this year, for some top rotation players, are down considerably from last year. So is it just a temporary team shooting slump -  or is there a more detailed reason ?

 swish


Last edited by swish on Sun Nov 11, 2018 11:14 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by fierce on Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:46 pm

swish wrote: While the defense has been a plus factor since 2016-17 the offense has been in decline over the last 2 years. Against a league average points of 105.6 in 2016-17 The Celts scoring 108.0 points while allowing 105.4 (points scored on the plus side) Then came the drop off in scoring in 2017-18 - against a league ave of 106.3 points the Celtics points scored fell to 104.0 as the defense only yielded 100.4 per game - and now in 2018-19, in only a few games, against a league average of 111.0, the Celtics points scored per game is only at 106.1 while the defense is doing great  by only allowing 103.8 points per game. Fortunately there are still a ton of games to go so their is no need to panic. Going hand in hand with the drop off in points scored is the fact that the shooting percentages this year for some top rotation players are down considerably from last year. So is it just a temporary team shooting slump -  or is there a more detailed reason ?

 swish

It's a case of having too many good players and not enough great ones.

A lot of Celtic fans here disagreed with me when I said that a couple of weeks ago.

Now you're showing us proof that the offense has been in decline.
The offense would not be in decline if you're not lacking in star power.

The only scorer on this Celtics team is Kyrie.

Until Tatum proves he can score on a regular basis, this team needs a tweak.
Trading some of the depth for a scorer will help the offense.

And your point is valid as the Celts go on scoring droughts many times every game.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by fierce on Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:53 pm

Since Jimmy Butler already went to the Sixers, my new trade idea would be Rozier, Jaylen, and Yabu for TJ Warren and the Suns 2019 lottery pick, unprotected.

It's addition by subtraction.

Not only will Warren give the Celts much needed scoring, it will also enable Hayward to get more minutes.
Hayward getting 30 minutes per game, or more, is a good thing.

The 2019 Suns pick will allow the Celts to replace Jaylen Brown with RJ Barrett or Reddish.

Right now the Celts are just 24th in scoring.
If the Celts are going to beat GSW or even Toronto, Celts need to score more points.

In today's NBA, if you can't score, you're not going to win many games.

Right now all the 30 teams are averaging more than 100 points per game.
Times have changed.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by Phil Pressey on Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:12 pm

Fierce, I think it is risky for Danny to cash in until the Hayward situation is figured out. Irving is risky for staying healthy. He is a classic scorer but as of now not yet proven as a top NBA player. The one on one skills are there, but he cannot be relied on his defense. He cannot be relied on to make his teammates better. He is simply not that kind of player. Horford's contract is winding down, as is his prime. I think Danny has to stick with the core he was building. There's always been a win now versus a win later roster construction. It's a shame about Hayward as damaged goods. He is a form of Gerald Wallace albatross contract until or if he can get back his speed and skills.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by fierce on Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:21 pm

Phil Pressey wrote:Fierce, I think it is risky for Danny to cash in until the Hayward situation is figured out. Irving is risky for staying healthy. He is a classic scorer but as of now not yet proven as a top NBA player. The one on one skills are there, but he cannot be relied on his defense. He cannot be relied on to make his teammates better. He is simply not that kind of player. Horford's contract is winding down, as is his prime. I think Danny has to stick with the core he was building. There's always been a win now versus a win later roster construction. It's a shame about Hayward as damaged goods. He is a form of Gerald Wallace albatross contract until or if he can get back his speed and skills.

When Ainge signed Horford and Hayward, it's a win now situation.

Ainge is not afraid to take risks.
He's just waiting for the right deal.

Hayward is not damaged goods, IMO.
He's just not acclimated yet.
Jaylen Brown was the starting SG last season and now Hayward and Brown have to share minutes and touches.
It's not working out for the both of them.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by Phil Pressey on Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:09 pm

Phew that you think Hayward can return to 95% of his former game if that is what you are implying. So tweak it is. As for Rozier, I am now guessing let him walk or resign no matter what based on his game. A couple months will let Danny know whether Terry is fool's gold or can't miss, same with Jaylen. Everyone else seems easy to value. I'd definitely either resign Kyrie or trade him. He obviously cannot just walk.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by fierce on Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:18 pm

Phil Pressey wrote:Phew that you think Hayward can return to 95% of his former game if that is what you are implying. So tweak it is. As for Rozier, I am now guessing let him walk or resign no matter what based on his game. A couple months will let Danny know whether Terry is fool's gold or can't miss, same with Jaylen. Everyone else seems easy to value. I'd definitely either resign Kyrie or trade him. He obviously cannot just walk.

Rozier is pretty good.
There's no doubt about that.
Against Utah, he proved he's a starter in the NBA.
He scored 22 points in 36 minutes.

Unfortunately the Celts already gave Smart 50m+ for 4 years.
That means Smart is the 2nd string PG behind Kyrie.

So why risk Rozier getting injured and the Celts will not be able to get anything if that happens.
This is the perfect time to trade Rozier as his value is very high.

Jaylen Brown is a very flashy player with so much potential.
The problem with Brown is he thinks he can out-jump and overpower every defender he faces.
Rudy Gobert showed him why the NBA is different from college.

If the Celts can get TJ Warren and the Suns 2019 lottery pick, unprotected, then it's worth giving up Brown and Rozier.

Think about it, if the Celts get the 2019 Suns pick and still have the 2019 Kings pick then the Celts will be in the hunt for RJ Barrett or Reddish.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by dboss on Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:23 pm

swish wrote: While the defense has been a plus factor since 2016-17 the offense has been in decline over the last 2 years. Against a league average points of 105.6 in 2016-17 The Celts scoring 108.0 points while allowing 105.4 (points scored on the plus side) Then came the drop off in scoring in 2017-18 - against a league ave of 106.3 points the Celtics points scored fell to 104.0 as the defense only yielded 100.4 per game - and now in 2018-19, in only a few games, against a league average of 111.0, the Celtics points scored per game is only at 106.1 while the defense is doing great  by only allowing 103.8 points per game. Fortunately there are still a ton of games to go so their is no need to panic. Going hand in hand with the drop off in points scored is the fact that the shooting percentages this year for some top rotation players are down considerably from last year. So is it just a temporary team shooting slump -  or is there a more detailed reason ?

 swish

Answer: We do not know. But I do not think it is the rotation players. Smart, Rozier and Morris are the top rotation players. Rozier and Morris are both shooting the 3 ball really well and Marcus does not count because he is not a good shooter this year, last year or any year

Tatum, brown and Horford are all having problems making shots. So I think the problem is with the starters except for Kyrie of course. Hayward is still a long way from being the allstar level player that he was in Utah. The rotation has changed. You have 4 out of 5 starters that are not making shots. that is the problem. The reason why they are not making shots is undetermined except in the case of Hayward. He has an identifying excuse.

I think Hayward needs to go to the bench. I think he can improve but it may not be best to have him in the starting lineup. I say this with a level of reluctance but they do not really need him in the lineup.

Right now the Celtics are very average. I say give it 25 games. By then Brad should have figured some things out. He has access to all the key metrics but the sample size at this point may not be credible.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by sinus007 on Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:43 pm

Hi,
I totally agree. I think Danny must trade all starting 5, he should also include TR, Smart and Morris, for 10 years worth of 1st round picks plus 5 years worth of second round picks and then he should fire himself, but before that he should fire Stevens.
I mean seriously, after 12 games and 7-5 record any less drastic measures are unthinkable.

AK
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by bobc33 on Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:51 pm

sinus007 wrote:Hi,
I totally agree. I think Danny must trade all starting 5, he should also include TR, Smart and Morris, for 10 years worth of 1st round picks plus 5 years worth of second round picks and then he should fire himself, but before that he should fire Stevens.
I mean seriously, after 12 games and 7-5 record any less drastic measures are unthinkable.

AK

We can pick up Jason Kidd to replace Stevens, and Kevin McHale to replace Danny. Paul “Thanks Dad” Gaston should own the team again. They will right the ship in no time....you heard it here first!
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by fierce on Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:29 am

sinus007 wrote:Hi,
I totally agree. I think Danny must trade all starting 5, he should also include TR, Smart and Morris, for 10 years worth of 1st round picks plus 5 years worth of second round picks and then he should fire himself, but before that he should fire Stevens.
I mean seriously, after 12 games and 7-5 record any less drastic measures are unthinkable.

AK

That's because you're looking at the Celtics record.
What you should be looking at is how the Celts are playing.

Celts keep jacking up 3s.

Every game the Celts go on scoring droughts too many times.
That's why even when the Celts have a lead in the 4th, it disappears because the Celts are on a scoring drought.

The Celtic offense is below average this season.
They're just 24th in scoring right now.

Hayward and Brown are sharing minutes and touches and they both end up struggling.

Clearly the Celts don't have the right mix.

The record doesn't actually show what the real problem is.
Celts have too many very good players and it's causing problems because there are not enough minutes and shots for all them.

One perfect example is Jaylen Brown.
He's struggling this season.
Last season he was thriving when Hayward was out.

Rozier is definitely a starter in the NBA.
He proved that against Utah.
So moving Rozier now makes a lot of sense as Rozier's value is very high and it allows Brad to give more minutes to the other players.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by fierce on Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:31 am

The earlier the Celts can make a change the better.

It will give the team more time to adjust.

Why wait until it's too late?

Don't look at the record, look at the Celtic games.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by kdp59 on Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:41 am

someone going to have egg on their face come the end of the season or more likely be no where to be found...ah well.

whatever did happen to the Laker fan who used to post here often?

I would be interested in his take on signing Lebron and the changes Magic has made so far.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by kdp59 on Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:46 am

Fierce, here's another player who may be free soon....you can add him to your list of players who Danny should trade for, maybe.

Adrian Wojnarowski: While Carmelo Anthony is absent with an illness tonight against the Spurs, the Rockets and Anthony are discussing his role and how they might still be able to proceed together for the rest of the season, league sources tell ESPN. Talks are fluid. – via Twitter wojespn

Shams Charania: Sources on @TheAthleticNBA @WatchStadium: The Houston Rockets and Carmelo Anthony are seriously weighing his roster situation. Sides ruled him out tonight in San Antonio due to “illness” — after he practiced fully with team Friday, league sources said. – via Twitter ShamsCharania
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by swish on Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:06 pm

dboss wrote:
swish wrote: While the defense has been a plus factor since 2016-17 the offense has been in decline over the last 2 years. Against a league average points of 105.6 in 2016-17 The Celts scoring 108.0 points while allowing 105.4 (points scored on the plus side) Then came the drop off in scoring in 2017-18 - against a league ave of 106.3 points the Celtics points scored fell to 104.0 as the defense only yielded 100.4 per game - and now in 2018-19, in only a few games, against a league average of 111.0, the Celtics points scored per game is only at 106.1 while the defense is doing great  by only allowing 103.8 points per game. Fortunately there are still a ton of games to go so their is no need to panic. Going hand in hand with the drop off in points scored is the fact that the shooting percentages this year for some top rotation players are down considerably from last year. So is it just a temporary team shooting slump -  or is there a more detailed reason ?

 swish

Answer:  We do not know.  But I do not think it is the rotation players.  Smart, Rozier and Morris are the top rotation players.  Rozier and Morris are both shooting the 3 ball really well and Marcus does not count because he is not a good shooter this year, last year or any year

Tatum, brown and Horford are all  having problems making shots.  So I think the problem is with the starters except for Kyrie of course.   Hayward  is still a long way from being the allstar level player that he was in Utah.  The rotation has changed.  You have 4 out of 5 starters that are not making shots.  that is the problem.  The reason why they are not making shots is undetermined except in the case of Hayward.  He has an identifying excuse.

I think Hayward needs to go to the bench.  I think he can improve but it may not be best to have him in the starting lineup.  I say this with a level of reluctance but they do not really need him in the lineup.  

Right now the Celtics are very average.  I say give it 25 games.  By then Brad should have figured some things out.  He has access to all the key metrics but the sample size at this point may not be credible.

dboss

To be more specific - the top rotation players to me are the 8 players that are logging about 23 minutes per game. The current offensive drought hopefully will turn out to be just a bump in the road - but I am concerned about the downward trend of the previous 2 years. It's got me bamboozled.

swish


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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by bobheckler on Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:06 pm

Tom Westerholm @Tom_NBA
about 1 hour ago
Per the NBA’s stat site: - No team has attempted a higher percentage of open shots than the Celtics (32.5 percent). - The Celtics are 27th in FG% on open shots.


bob
MY NOTE:  If this is true then our offense isn't as bad as the numbers look since we have shooters, they're just not hitting open shots, but they will eventually.  Eventually, shooters score over the course of a season.


.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by NYCelt on Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:36 pm

bobc33 wrote:
sinus007 wrote:Hi,
I totally agree. I think Danny must trade all starting 5, he should also include TR, Smart and Morris, for 10 years worth of 1st round picks plus 5 years worth of second round picks and then he should fire himself, but before that he should fire Stevens.
I mean seriously, after 12 games and 7-5 record any less drastic measures are unthinkable.

AK

We can pick up Jason Kidd to replace Stevens, and Kevin McHale to replace Danny.  Paul “Thanks Dad” Gaston should own the team again.  They will right the ship in no time....you heard it here first!

AK and Bob,

You guys crack me up.

(Don't forget to trade the dancers too. I think Trade Machine and Real GM both say their contracts work in exchange for The Laker Girls.)

Regards
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by dboss on Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:31 pm

swish wrote:
dboss wrote:
swish wrote: While the defense has been a plus factor since 2016-17 the offense has been in decline over the last 2 years. Against a league average points of 105.6 in 2016-17 The Celts scoring 108.0 points while allowing 105.4 (points scored on the plus side) Then came the drop off in scoring in 2017-18 - against a league ave of 106.3 points the Celtics points scored fell to 104.0 as the defense only yielded 100.4 per game - and now in 2018-19, in only a few games, against a league average of 111.0, the Celtics points scored per game is only at 106.1 while the defense is doing great  by only allowing 103.8 points per game. Fortunately there are still a ton of games to go so their is no need to panic. Going hand in hand with the drop off in points scored is the fact that the shooting percentages this year for some top rotation players are down considerably from last year. So is it just a temporary team shooting slump -  or is there a more detailed reason ?

 swish

Answer:  We do not know.  But I do not think it is the rotation players.  Smart, Rozier and Morris are the top rotation players.  Rozier and Morris are both shooting the 3 ball really well and Marcus does not count because he is not a good shooter this year, last year or any year

Tatum, brown and Horford are all  having problems making shots.  So I think the problem is with the starters except for Kyrie of course.   Hayward  is still a long way from being the allstar level player that he was in Utah.  The rotation has changed.  You have 4 out of 5 starters that are not making shots.  that is the problem.  The reason why they are not making shots is undetermined except in the case of Hayward.  He has an identifying excuse.

I think Hayward needs to go to the bench.  I think he can improve but it may not be best to have him in the starting lineup.  I say this with a level of reluctance but they do not really need him in the lineup.  

Right now the Celtics are very average.  I say give it 25 games.  By then Brad should have figured some things out.  He has access to all the key metrics but the sample size at this point may not be credible.

dboss

  To be more specific  - the top rotation players to me are the 8 players that are logging about 23 minutes per game.  The current offensive drought hopefully will turn out to be just a bump in the road -  but I am concerned about the downward trend of the previous 2 years. It's got me bamboozled.

    swish

 

Swish I do not know what it is and that is why I have little concerns.  There is nothing to fear but fear itself.

I think the big issue is related to the time that this team has been together.  I think the Celtics were hit in the mouth in game one last year  so the sense of urgency was immediate.  This year is different

I think it will take 2-3 years for this current group to be great.    Do you remember what happened with GSW.  Back in 2012 they had Curry, Thompson and Green on the team.  Klay was only averaging 12.7 PPG  Green was playing 13 MPG.  Curry was averaging 21 PPG.
They went 47-35.

The next year they went 51-31 (5 years ago and  in the 2013 playoffs GSW lost 4-3 in the first round to LAC)

It took this team a while to become a  great team.    It happened because they drafted some really good players and developed them.  

So when anyone makes an argument about GSW now relative to Boston now and use it as justification for wanted changes, I do not believe that is what's needed.

Stay the course, relax and do not react to the up and downs that this team must go through to get to where they want to be.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by Shamrock1000 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:31 am

bobheckler wrote:Tom Westerholm @Tom_NBA
about 1 hour ago
Per the NBA’s stat site: - No team has attempted a higher percentage of open shots than the Celtics (32.5 percent). - The Celtics are 27th in FG% on open shots.


bob
MY NOTE:  If this is true then our offense isn't as bad as the numbers look since we have shooters, they're just not hitting open shots, but they will eventually.  Eventually, shooters score over the course of a season.


.

+1 - Regression to the mean is inevitable

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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by dbrown4 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:13 am

Fierce,

You may have done this before, but define "star power", what the Celtics lack please. Thanks

db
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by dbrown4 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:26 am

kdp,

You mean tjmakz? Yeah, I was asking about him the other day. Does fierce remind you of him as well?

db
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by kdp59 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:56 am

dbrown4 wrote:kdp,

You mean tjmakz?  Yeah, I was asking about him the other day.  Does fierce remind you of him as well?  

db


thanks, that's who I meant.

no he doesn't remind me of Fierce at all, I was just interested in what his take of Magics' rebuilding the Lakers was.


I give fierce a lot of credit,as he didn't take my Meio post to heart at least

I like to play the "armchair GM" myself, so I understand his always looking to "upgrade" his favorite team. one just has to understand that not everyone will agree and then move on.



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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by bobheckler on Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:06 pm

Sports, in general, are a confidence game.  If you feel good and in the groove you will perform better and, if you are hesitant and unsure, you won't.

Adam Himmelsbach @AdamHimmelsbach
about 11 hours ago
Just 2 of the Celtics' next 17 games come against teams that currently have winning records.


Nothing succeeds like success.  A combination of this tepid season start and poor road trip might spur us to go on a 15 or 16 game winning streak now and then all will be right again. Can, and will we, point out that the win streak was against weaker teams? Of course, but winning cures all ills and provides you with the confidence that what you did against weak teams you can do against strong teams and that actually translates into better performance against those teams. This isn't a precise science in which carefully measured inputs will always produce the same results. It's a combination of athletics, art and psychology and we need a psychological boost right now more than the other two and it's being cued up for us now, right on schedule, courtesy of the league office.


bob


.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by bobheckler on Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:28 pm

bobheckler wrote:Tom Westerholm @Tom_NBA
about 1 hour ago
Per the NBA’s stat site: - No team has attempted a higher percentage of open shots than the Celtics (32.5 percent). - The Celtics are 27th in FG% on open shots.


bob
MY NOTE:  If this is true then our offense isn't as bad as the numbers look since we have shooters, they're just not hitting open shots, but they will eventually.  Eventually, shooters score over the course of a season.


.


This is what I am talking about.  I would be fall down shocked if this doesn't change, and fairly soon.

Adam Himmelsbach @AdamHimmelsbach
about 1 hour ago
Surprising: Jaylen Brown has yet to shoot better than 50 percent in any game this season and is just 21 for 50 on layups, per @Basketball-Reference.

reply retweet like



bob



.
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Re: A turnaround needed

Post by dboss on Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:28 pm

Bob

The open shot stat you referenced makes me feel better.

Open shots are generally a good sign. Not making them is a bad sign if a team is stocked with bad shooters.
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Re: A turnaround needed

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