Terry Rozier details difference in team's play when Kyrie Irving sits

I imagine this post will make a lot of folks here upset, but it is probably worth discussing on a Celtics board...

https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/31/terry-rozier-details-difference-in-teams-play-when-kyrie-irving-sits/


With yesterday’s win over the Charlotte Hornets, the Boston Celtics are now 6-2 without star point guard Kyrie Irving. While their ability to find success without Irving may come as no surprise given their play in the 2018 Eastern Conference Playoffs, which Irving missed due to a season-ending knee surgery, it does beg the question of why the team has managed to play well even without their offensive leader.

According to backup point guard Terry Rozier, who started in place of Irving on Wednesday and recorded a double-double with 17 points and 10 assists in the victory, there’s a clear distinction in the team’s movement and mindset without a magician masquerading as an elite playmaker on the court.

“When we play with him it’s more like a show. We sit back and watch — watch him go crazy,” Rozier said:

Terry Rozier said with Kyrie Irving on the court there’s a tendency sometimes to watch him put on a show. Noted that Irving’s one of the best offensive players in the NBA. “If y’all was out there y’all would do the same thing.”

It’s interesting to hear that from Rozier because the numbers mirror his impression of Boston when they play without Irving.

Per Basketball Reference, the Celtics have an assist percentage of 66.2 when Irving is off the court and an assist percentage of 59.8 when he’s on it. There’s no other player with as large an on-off net differential in terms of their assist percentage.

Boston’s offensive rating dips dramatically when he’s off the court though, falling from 118.1 to 111.7; evidence of the team missing what Rozier would call “one of the best offensive players in the game today.”

It would seem as if, as Rozier states, though the team is a much more dynamic offensive team when Irving is on the court, shaking and baking and weaving his way through limbs on his way to the limb, when he’s not on the court there’s a difference in the team’s ball-movement and player movement. That’s no indictment on Irving, who is averaging a career-high in assists (6.9 per game) and looking to create shots for his teammates consistently.

It’s just the reality of the situation, as his style of play causes a bit of ball-watching and because there aren’t too many other Celtics players that can wreak havoc in an isolation situation like Irving. Second-year forward Jayson Tatum comes the closest but he doesn’t create separation for his shots at nearly the level of proficiency as Irving does.

There are other interesting stats in connection with Irving, like the team being better at home without him but better on the road with him.

There could be no rhyme or reason behind that stat but it’s interesting to keep track of, especially when the Celtics enter the 2019 postseason.


And here is a screen shot of relevant twitter feeds the article referenced:



And links to the twitter feeds

https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1090823157131476995/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1090823157131476995&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcelticswire.usatoday.com%2F2019%2F01%2F31%2Fterry-rozier-details-difference-in-teams-play-when-kyrie-irving-sits%2F


https://twitter.com/ByJayKing/status/1090812782205906944/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1090812782205906944&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcelticswire.usatoday.com%2F2019%2F01%2F31%2Fterry-rozier-details-difference-in-teams-play-when-kyrie-irving-sits%2F

Shamrock,

Interesting article that should spur some deep and intelligent debate. I think Rozier provides some excellent insight.

Thanks for posting this.

Regards

NYCelt wrote:Shamrock,

Interesting article that should spur some deep and intelligent debate. I think Rozier provides some excellent insight.

Thanks for posting this.

Regards

Thanks NYCelt.

It might be worth looking at the numbers more closely (some are in the twitter links). Seems like the Celtics absolutely stink on the road without Kyrie. Also, discounting last year's playoffs, it may be that Kyrie tends to sit against bad teams. Celts have a great +- differential this year, which is a good metric as to how good a team is. As always, the devil is in the details. Personally, I am not ready to jump on the "Kyrie is amazing but the Celtics play better as a team without him" bandwagon.

Hi,
Thanks for the article. Interesting perspective.
As far as Celtics are better without KI than with, sorry, but I think it's a lunacy.

AK

This year Kyrie has struck a good balance between being a guy that can take over a game by himself and being a guy that can and will get the ball to his teammates as evidenced by his assist totals this year. Without Kyrie the ball is moved more to create shot opportunities for everyone as well as assist opportunities. There is a two-tier system at work here which compliment one another. There have been so many games this year where the team is struggling to score even when the ball is moving. That is where Kyrie can fill in those gaps with his ability to not only score but do it in multiples from all three areas of the court.

Consider this, Kyrie is putting up career highs in FG%, assists and rebounds and steals.

I’m one of these wondering, but hasn’t made a definite conclusion.We know our young guys can play, a game within the Finals proves that....We know Kyrie is a warrior, besides being able to do it all, he plays as hard as anyone in the league, even improving his defense and rebounding this year. Love Kyrie, maybe it’s on Stevens, he’s got to figure out how to get the 2 J’s rolling and Kyrie at the same time. He got Smart going this year, he definitely under utilized Jaylen vs Warriors recently. Come on Bad Brad, figure this out...???

I find the undercurrent in this article, and in what we've observed in team play, very reassuring.

Would I want to see Kyrie leave? No way. As the article points out, he's among the game's best on the offensive end.

Do I think he might leave? Absolutely. I make it 50/50 at this point.

Does Boston's play without him, and Rozier's explanation of what we're seeing make me feel better about the possibility? Yes.

I think the talent pool is deep enough that if the worst happens, this team still competes. I just think that even the possibility of an Irving exit, makes it that much more important to try and retain Rozier. I also think drafting a PG right after a big, with one of those picks that are likely to be retained, would be a solid plan.

Much of the disappointment this year is based on how well the Celtics played last year.  It perhaps has skewed our perception of how good they were supposed to be this year. It certainly ignores that other teams improve every year.

I am going to use the Bucks to illustrate the point I am trying to make.

Last year they came into the playoff as a 7th seed.  They had averaged 106.5 PPG and gave up 106.9 PPG, a 0.3 deficit.  They were losers on the road at 19-22.

Now look at them.  Averaging 117.2 PPG and giving up 107.6 thus sporting a league lead differential of 9.7.  They are currently 14-9 on the road.

What the Celtics did last year has not been an accurate measuring stick for what they are doing this year.  

If we had to roll with Terry we would do that.  But there is a wide canyon between being a starting quality point guard as Rozier has become and a championship level point guard that Kyrie Irving is.  Terry is good, Kyrie is elite.  We cannot simply overlook the fact that Terry went 0-10 from 3 point land and 2-14 overall in the biggest game of his career.  A 7th game, an ultimate challenge to prove yourself and he wet the bed.  He scored 4 points.

The Celtics made a significant investment in Kyrie and I am absolutely certain Danny will do everything that he can to resign him.  

His impact during the playoffs is quite revealing.  He has played in 52 games averaging 24 PPG and shot 41% from deep and has an efg% of .528 he has been clutch at the line at.

Dboss great point on how poorly Rozier shot in the biggest game of his life, Jaylen Brown was almost as bad. The two of them choking on the biggest stage has been, and will be, in the back of my mind since. Some players thrive in the big moments, others don’t. I’m hoping the two of them redeem themselves and prove it was just a fluke outing and not an indication of how they respond to pressure.

Hayward has also effected the team one way or another, if he was not as bob h says an empty shirt too many games and getting minutes, maybe with additional minutes and more shots and responsibility one of the 2 J’s could have found his role/rythmn earlier and might even have made the all star team. You can’t tell me Kris Middleton is a better player than either of the 2 J’s, difference he has minutes and a better role and his team is first in East.

bobc33 wrote:Dboss great point on how poorly Rozier shot in the biggest game of his life, Jaylen Brown was almost as bad.  The two of them choking on the biggest stage has been, and will be, in the back of my mind since.  Some players thrive in the big moments, others don’t.  I’m hoping the two of them redeem themselves and prove it was just a fluke outing and not an indication of how they respond to pressure.

Yeah those 2 guys really showed their youth at the wrong time during that game, what pissed me off is they kept chucking 3’s when they were both so ice cold, if the 3 ball is so off, fockin attack.... If those 2 would have drove rest of game and gotten to the line, we would have given GS a way better series than Cavs.

bobc33 wrote:Dboss great point on how poorly Rozier shot in the biggest game of his life, Jaylen Brown was almost as bad.  The two of them choking on the biggest stage has been, and will be, in the back of my mind since.  Some players thrive in the big moments, others don’t.  I’m hoping the two of them redeem themselves and prove it was just a fluke outing and not an indication of how they respond to pressure.

Bobc33

They both were equally frightful.

I am not trying to blame them and I was just pointing out that elite players perform at an elite level.  If Kyrie had problems making 3 point shots he would switch to his killer midrange game or simply get to the rim.  

All season long everybody has been waiting for Terry to play better.  Jaylen has turned things around while Terry remains a very unreliable shooter.  

They will have another year under their belt and both of them will be needed if Boston is to make a run.  I expect them to learn from their mistakes.

Terry Rozier will become a good NBA player. He has a ton of confidence, athletic ability and the attitude to work hard and improve year after year. If Kyrie were to leave and we were forced to look to Terry and Smart as our backcourt, we would likely be fine.

But if he thinks they are a better team without Kyrie - he should go check into the Lindemann Mental Health Center down the street from the Garden.

This is a very interesting topic to say the least.

Sure, Irving has tons of offensive talent and has even improved his game on the defensive end of the floor while also doing better stat wise in assists and rebounding.

And, yes Rozier had a terrible last game last year against Cleveland and has shown signs of struggling this year.

However, and especially in basketball more than in some other sports, there is almost always a mixture of talents and personalities that goes in to just how good a team can be.

The fact that the Celtics are 6-2 in games without Irving this year and got to the east finals last year without him may just be a sign that even despite his top end skill levels that he may actually a player that the team can play without.

It is interesting that a team can seemingly play without such a super star type player and still win when we would all probably think that our team should flounder when he is not available. There just may be a huge thing to consider from Rozier's statement relating to "we all stand around when he (Irving) plays and watch him play so well". Using New Orleans as an example of what most teams do when their superstar is out, they have lost three times more often than they have won since Davis has been injured.

I can see this as a very debatable topic for all of us Cs fans, but right now I believe that I would trade him at the deadline this year if Ainge could get a good center, another at least decent player and future picks.

The Knicks are a possibility as they have Jordan that they just got for Porzingus (and, have already mentioned buying him out) and a potentially really good draft pick this year whether they get Kyrie for the last 25 games or not.

Not criticizing Irving's comments this week, but it looks like he may be much more likely to resign with the Knicks than with the Celtics this summer.

wideclyde wrote:This is a very interesting topic to say the least.

Sure, Irving has tons of offensive talent and has even improved his game on the defensive end of the floor while also doing better stat wise in assists and rebounding.

And, yes Rozier had a terrible last game last year against Cleveland and has shown signs of struggling this year.

However, and especially in basketball more than in some other sports, there is almost always a mixture of talents and personalities that goes in to just how good a team can be.

The fact that the Celtics are 6-2 in games without Irving this year and got to the east finals last year without him may just be a sign that even despite his top end skill levels that he may actually a player that the team can play without.  

It is interesting that a team can seemingly play without such a super star type player and still win when we would all probably think that our team should flounder when he is not available.  There just may be a huge thing to consider from Rozier's statement relating to "we all stand around when he (Irving) plays and watch him play so well".  Using New Orleans as an example of what most teams do when their superstar is out, they have lost three times more often than they have won since Davis has been injured.

I can see this as a very debatable topic for all of us Cs fans, but right now I believe that I would trade him at the deadline this year if Ainge could get a good center, another at least decent player and future picks.

The Knicks are a possibility as they have Jordan that they just got for Porzingus (and, have already mentioned buying him out) and a potentially really good draft pick this year whether they get Kyrie for the last 25 games or not.

Not criticizing Irving's comments this week, but it looks like he may be much more likely to resign with the Knicks than with the Celtics this summer.

Wyde I think we need to dig a little deeper here as we evaluate the notion that Terry can replace Kyrie.

If you look at our 6-2 record without Kyrie there is not a single game won against a quality opponent.

Wins

Charlotte
Brooklyn
Cleveland
Dallas
Minnesota
Nola

Losees

Brooklyn
Utah

Going 6-2 against this group is far from any verification that Terry is a replacement for Irving

Everybody keeps talking about the playoffs last year.  Terry played well but it was Jaylen and Jayson that carried this team during the playoff.  Terry actually tailed off as the competition increased.  In the 7 game Cavs series he shot .378 from the field including a ghastly .255% from deep.

Don't be 'scared' into believing the unbelievable.  Terry is a very solid PG that can start for a lot of teams including the Celtics.  But there is not a shred of evidence to suggest or support that he comes remotely close to replacing Kyrie.

I don’t think TR is near an upgrade over Kyrie, but when 2 J’s got more opportunities they responded, there has to be a better balance of keeping Kyrie going and getting 2 J’s and even Hayward going, we get all our talent rolling on the same page we will get to Finals. If Kyrie overdominates the ball and 2 J’s are ignored, we can’t win against playoff competition IMHO.

Cow the problem facing Boston as we look at the playoffs begins and ends with Al Horford.

The deeper he goes into the playoffs the less effective he becomes.  For those doubters go look at his game log - playoffs over the past 4 years.

My biggest concern is him.  Our wings and guards are not an issue.

I made a statement that the Celtics can not win the title if Al Horford is our top big man.  We have Aron Baynes who has shown us that he can help.  Brad however will not use him that much against the Bucks for example.  His effectiveness is best utilized to counter a big physical low post opponent.  

Al is a very skilled player but he is also a player that wears down every single year during the playoffs.  He simply lacks the physical capacity to play at a very high level over extended playoff matchups against a quality team that has quality bigs.

I simply to not see a pathway to the title this year unless Al Horford deviates from his historical playoff decline.  I do not see that ever happening.

dboss,

If Kyrie goes to the Knicks for Jordan + do you think that Jordan would be able to make Horford a better player for later in the season including the playoffs?

Horfords defense was huge last year in playoff run, we can be a better team without relying on Horford offense to carry us, since this year we have Kyrie and hopefully 2 J’s can play even better....Smarts offense will be better, hopefully get the good GH, the good TR, we can do this. I don’t see us trading Kyrie for Jordan....but you never know, maybe we get him for free?

If KI leaves, Terry Rozier doesnt have to become a replacement for Kyrie in any way.  He just has to continue to grow and improve and be reasonable in his contract expectations.  If we can resign him for Smart type money, that leaves the difference available for another FA.

I think the Media is full of shit and Kyrie is sick of it, so it taking pleasure in winding them up.  I see no reason to think that Kyrie doesnt sign a big deal with Boston this summer, and I have no doubt that DA will go get another big time player to play next to him.

dboss,

I am not saying that Rozier can replace Irving as far as talent and polish go ,but perhaps for this team this year the team could be better if Irving is traded and a center who can play defense and rebound returns in the trade.

Some times addition by subtraction can happen on a team.

wideclyde wrote:dboss,

If Kyrie goes to the Knicks for Jordan + do you think that Jordan would be able to make Horford a better player for later in the season including the playoffs?

Wyde

That is a theoretical question to answer. I first have to wrap my head around Kyrie being traded to the Knicks. Sorry but I cannot imagine that happening.

But let's say that the Knicks initiate a buyout. (unlikely) Consider that they are not interested in playing a guy that can help them win games as they continue on their journey deep into the tank If Boston could sign Jordan after a buyout as an end of season rental he could help them. AH played PF when he was paired with Za Za for several years. I could see him rotate to the 4 spot when he and Jordan were in the game together. Brad does not play Aron and Al together that much because they prefer a small ball lineup. Jordan remains a double digit rebounding guy. MM and AH is a small 4/5 pairing.

The Knicks however are planning to play Jordan according to comments from coach Frizdale therefore the prospects of adding Jordan are slim to none.

wideclyde wrote:dboss,

I am not saying that Rozier can replace Irving as far as talent and polish go ,but perhaps for this team this year the team could be better if Irving is traded and a center who can play defense and rebound returns in the trade.  

Some times addition by subtraction can happen on a team.

Wyde

I really do not see Boston trading away their top gun this year. I honestly believe that Danny needs Kyrie to pair with Anthony Davis. The guy that they need to trade is Terry unless they are insecure about resigning Kyrie and/or they have a probable opportunity to resign Terry as a sign and trade candidate.

I only see a minor move made this year to sure up the 5 spot. If they cannot find anyone they will go with what they got.

cowens/oldschool wrote:Horfords defense was huge last year in playoff run, we can be a better team without relying on Horford offense to carry us, since this year we have Kyrie and hopefully 2 J’s can play even better....Smarts offense will be better, hopefully get the good GH, the good TR, we can do this. I don’t see us trading Kyrie for Jordan....but you never know, maybe we get him for free?

I'll say again, take a look at Al playoff production from last season or go back further if you like.  Each series his productivity declines.  That is because AH is a  PF and struggles banging with bruits.  He takes a tremendous amount of wear and tear on his body.  He has really been playing great basketball since he returned from the knee issue.  I do not see him being able to do that the rest of this season and into potentially 28 playoffs game.  Brad will really need to play Aron Baynes more.  Williams is probably not getting any meaningful minutes.  

I sure the hell hope I am wrong about Al because he has always been a good player but he has always disappointing.  Ask Atlanta fans and they will tell you the same thing.  Al is just not a championship level big man center.

dboss wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Horfords defense was huge last year in playoff run, we can be a better team without relying on Horford offense to carry us, since this year we have Kyrie and hopefully 2 J’s can play even better....Smarts offense will be better, hopefully get the good GH, the good TR, we can do this. I don’t see us trading Kyrie for Jordan....but you never know, maybe we get him for free?

I'll say again, take a look at Al playoff production from last season or go back further if you like.  Each series his productivity declines.  That is because AH is a  PF and struggles banging with bruits.  He takes a tremendous amount of wear and tear on his body.  He has really been playing great basketball since he returned from the knee issue.  I do not see him being able to do that the rest of this season and into potentially 28 playoffs game.  Brad will really need to play Aron Baynes more.  Williams is probably not getting any meaningful minutes.  

I sure the hell hope I am wrong about Al because he has always been a good player but he has always disappointing.  Ask Atlanta fans and they will tell you the same thing.  Al is just not a championship level big man center.

I agree with you on your assessment of Al, I’d be the first to say he’s more of a glue guy and he can’t carry a team on his back. Last year with Al’s productivity we still made it to game 7 ECF’s, so if we get similar production this years playoffs, the fact that we have Kyrie a player that is a highly skilled workhorse for his position and added experience from last years run to 2 J’s this year and if we can just get some good production out of GH and Smart has improved offensively....we could still be a better team. We have to use all the remaining games against the elite teams, like today’s match up with Thunder, as playoff rehearsals to get our shit right, rotations, execution both sides, everything. Want to see how good 2 J’s can defend George. I thought last year we defended Durant very well, then this years first recent game against GS, we had too many key stretches with Morris on him and didn’t use Jaylen enough.