First Look Celtics Vs Bucks Round 2

As expected the Celtics will play the Bucks in round 2 of the playoff.

The Bucks swept Detroit out of the playoffs convincingly.  They averaged a whopping 121.8 PPG.  The closest contest was game 3 where the Bucks struggled and only won by 16 points 119-103.

Okay let me stop joking around.

The Bucks are the real deal.  They are the only team to win 60 games this year and they accomplished that feat with remarkable consistency.  They went 28-13 against winning teams and were 45-5 in 10 point games.  There record against .500 teams was a league leading 28-13. Their road record was 27-14 (tied with Golden State)

This is not the same team we beat last year 4-3.
 
So what needs to happen for Boston to win this series?

*Defend The Freak - He led the NBA in points in the paint at over 17 per game.  That is where he makes his money.  How he makes his money is  a combination of length, size, ball handling  and top end athleticism.  All this is topped off by his creativity.

Here is some things that the Celtics may want to try.

*Play some zone defenses to limit his ability to drive through the lane uninhibited.  
*bring a double team when he is up top and looking to make a move but this will requires great timing and real quick rotations
*Show him different looks.  Use AH, MM, Semi, Theis on him.  Use Baynes to bang n him in the post
*Foul him when he is going for a layup
*Get back on defense because he is virtually unstoppable in the open court and he will run off of turnovers and missed shots
*Send him to the line late in games (Hack-A-Freak) he is not a great shooter from the foul line.

Other considerations

The Bucks are a very unselfish team.  They will move the ball to search out the best shot (Remind you of another team?)  The Celtics have to be outstanding defenders on the perimeter.  Also they really need to stay in front of their man especially Bledsoe who will drive the ball.

Other important factors will be rebounding.  The Bucks averaged 53 rebounds per game against Detroit.

On the offensive end the one flaw seen throughout the Pacers series was the turnovers.  They include stepping on the end line, offensive fouls, passes to no one.  Lazy passes to someone that get intercepted or deflected and forced passes into coverage.  And let's not forget traveling!

Offensively Boston shot Excellent (40%) from deep against the Paces.  Some of those attempts are taken at the wrong time.  Patience on offense is a must.  Make them work.

I would also like to see Boston get up and done in transition and also shoot better from the line.  They fell off a bit during the Pacers series.
The Celtics played great defense against the Pacers but that effort will need to be even better against the Bucks.  The Celtics only put up 80 shots per game against the Pacers.  That will not be enough to beat the Bucks.  Again turnovers is a lost possession and a lost shot and it puts extra pressure on the defense.  Turnovers was the single most impactful negative in the Pacers series.

If the Celtics are going to advance in this series they must win on the road.  You win on the road with great defense and it seems Boston is playing their best defense of the year even without Marcus Smart.

The Bucks have played 10 guys in most games  but basically they are using a 9 man rotation.  Surprisingly, not one player has logged 30 MPG.  Every player is under 30.

The  4  main guys that averaged double figures (Freak, Middleton,  Bledsoe and the Android)

The Celtics can will this series if our bench outplays their bench.

In other news, At Celtics practice today, Marcus Smart is currently jogging on a treadmill. Standing next to him is Celtics President of basketball operations Danny Ainge.

Toughest job I can think of, but the trick may be to defend Giannis without doubling him.

I think the Bucks have too strong a roster behind him to employ that strategy much.

Going to have to hope Baynes, Brown and Theis are up to the task. I believe those need to be the three. Need to be physical and, ideally, quick.

I want to add one other thing here,

Aron Baynes may see reduced minutes when Lopez and the freak on on the floor because Lopez plays on the perimeter quite a bit. I do not see Aron chasing him around the perimeter. I think we will see more Morris.

NYCelt wrote:Toughest job I can think of, but the trick may be to defend Giannis without doubling him.

I think the Bucks have too strong a roster behind him to employ that strategy much.

Going to have to hope Baynes, Brown and Theis are up to the task. I believe those need to be the three. Need to be physical and, ideally, quick.

The strategy I outlined is a multi- dimensional strategy that includes switching to a zone, using double teams and also using different guys to defend him to give him a different look.

Baynes is not going to help us much with the freak. he just does not have enough quickness to stay with him but he can help as a backline secondary defender when he is in the game.

Morris too slow too small, I actually see Jaylen and Semi doing as good a job possible staying on him during the times Al may be off him. Jaylen covered him a few times during season and could at least stay on him and jump on his shooting hand. Semi actually did a credible job last year, somewhat containing his drives, but taking a beating.

Jaylen's main assignment will probably be on Middleton unless Brad prefers Jason on him.

At some point Morris will have to check the freak. Boston switches everything so there is no way to avoid it. I agree that Semi may get a look as he is quicker on the ball than Morris.

The freak is the main guy but Boston still has to check the rest of the Bucks.

It is going to be a war no doubt.

I’m expecting a breakout 30 point plus game from both of 2 J’s at some point, Jaylen already did it to them once last year, and don’t see any elite wing defenders on Bucks....expecting GH to have a strong series too. Giannis is gonna have some mad dunks, but so are Jaylen, Jayson and GH.We are gonna have to get our running going and if our wings can dominate their wings more than Greek Freak can dominate us, we win....simple...!!!

is Baynes quick enough to guard him?

Horford would seem a better choice to me, but what do i know.

guess it doesn't matter much, since we switch so much.

kdp59 wrote:is Baynes quick enough to guard him?

Horford would seem a better choice to me, but what do i know.

guess it doesn't matter much, since we switch so much.

One man is not gonna guard/stop him, gonna require whole team, team defensive effort....

Baynes isn't quick enough by any means.

He is, however, a bunch of hard fouls.

Apply as needed.

And they're going to be needed.

Can't compromise Horford, and Morris doesn't quite have the size. Brown has the speed and athleticism. Theis is another bunch of fouls.

My best guess anyway.

NYCelt wrote:Baynes isn't quick enough by any means.

He is, however, a bunch of hard fouls.

Apply as needed.

And they're going to be needed.

Can't compromise Horford, and Morris doesn't quite have the size. Brown has the speed and athleticism. Theis is another bunch of fouls.

My best guess anyway.

Again I think there is no single matchup solution. The freak is unstoppable in one on one situation. We know he is a poor shooter from deep and will look to drive the ball. Brown and whoever is out there on the perimeter will need to stay in front of him which is virtually impossible.

In the end the Celtics should give him different looks. Thank goodness he is not a great jump shooter.

This will be an exciting series. Boston has been playing excellent basketball overall. Hoping Smart can get back.

Get him in foul trouble. That always works.

db

One thing I notice about The Freak.  He is either Euro stepping his way through the paint and to the rim when his initial rush is not checked where he is then attacking the secondary line of defense. Or he positions himself with his back to the basket and will try to spin away from the defender or just try to beat them with his quickness and length.

The Celtics have an outstanding defensive team because they have a lot of guys that can switch however there are still going to be a lot of mismatch situations to deal with.

I do think Boston can play some zone to keep him from driving the ball.  That zone will also allow them to trap a bit up top.  Turn him into a passer.  This will not work without lightning quick rotations.  That is the key to employing a double team.  When he is backing a guy down you have to bring the double team.  You have to do that or he is going to score.

The most dangerous 2nd option is Kris Middleton.  He shoots the ball quick.  If you double off him he can burn you.  The Celtics have to employ a sound defensive strategy and I am sure Brad will get these guys up to speed.

Boston is not going to be able to match their offensive output.  Defense will be the key in this series.  

There are two very reasonable schools of thought.

One, you focus your attention on everyone one else and let the freak get his freak on or you focus on limiting him.  

I think we will see both concepts employed here.  The idea is to give them different looks.

On a side note, how many people have seen ESPN and NBA TV display a 2-1 Celtics advantage during the regular season against the Bucks?

You had 3 games and two of them were extremely close 117-114 Celtics, 120-107 Bucks and 98-97 Bucks.

DB you have put forth the notion that Boston can punch them in the mouth and reduce them.

If you are right about this Boston can win this series.

At this point in the season the Bucks are playing at the same level that they did all season. The Celtics have been up and down all year but look like a different team now. They have now won 10 out of 12 including their 6-2 record to close out the regular season.

The Celtics have to win in Milwaukee and the sooner they do it the better. I hope Marcus can get back healthy enough to give us a jolt. I believe he could turn the tide in an extended series against them.

Kyrie and Co. will definitely have to bring their A games to win this one. But for me so far, Kyrie has delivered. I'm expecting nothing less here in Round 2. This may be the finals right here. 3 of the 4 semis look very interesting. Somebody's going to be short a chair with no place to sit. This may be the best 2nd Round I can recall in some time with all that is on the line.

db

have they said when the series starts?

kdp59 wrote:have they said when the series starts?

Hi,
Sunday, April 28. Here's the schedule: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-playoffs-2019-watch-bucks-vs-celtics-game-1-series-schedule-results-tv-channel-live-stream-odds-matchups/

TBD for the next games - I guess they're scheduling along with Bruins games.

AK

The Celtics have a full week off. It also gives Marcus more time to rehab.

I think it is valuable time off that gives Boston plenty of time to prepare for the Bucks.

dboss wrote:The Celtics have a full week off.  It also gives Marcus more time to rehab.

I think it is valuable time off that gives Boston plenty of time to prepare for the Bucks.

The rest is good for Boston with Marcus Smart and for Milwaukee who is expecting Brogdon and Pau Gasol to return this series.

cowens/oldschool wrote:

kdp59 wrote:is Baynes quick enough to guard him?

Horford would seem a better choice to me, but what do i know.

guess it doesn't matter much, since we switch so much.

One man is not gonna guard/stop him, gonna require whole team, team defensive effort....

I agree, they have to throw several different looks at him. I would double him as soon as he put the ball on the floor and make him pick it up, then drop the double teamer back to his man. I know one thing is he is going to score nearly every time he gets to the rack. It would be hard for someone to shoot a good enough three point average to offset the Freaks 75-85% from layups and dunks. I would try to cover the good 3 point shooters with the double team on Freak and take my chances as much as possible with them.

If Lopez is going to play deep outside, we need to get the ball and run off the misses.

Also Kyrie has got to shoot better that 38 percent from the field. All we have heard is how great Kyrie played against Indiana, truth be told his shooting was pretty bad, something like 35% for 3 games. He did have that one great shooting nite. Each game we had other guys that stepped up and played great. Tatum played well in each game and very good one game, Morris had a couple of good games, Gordon and Brown as well. Both Kyrie and Al's shooting has been bad. The odds are in our favor that they improve.

Its there for us to take if we take good shots and limit our turnovers. We have to rebound well too. I am READY

Statistically, Giannis shoots 64% on 2 point shots - a lot of those very high percentage dunks and layins. So, yes, overall it's better to let the Bucks shoot a 3 than Giannis a 2 in terms of expected value. However, Middleton, shoots the 3 at 46% so it's better to let Giannis shoot a two then Middleton a three. This suggests when they double Giannis down low don't use Middleton's man. Sterling Brown has a 55.6% 3 point average (not a typo) so definitely stay on him as well. Everyone else their expected value from shooting a three is lower than Giannis' from shooting a 2.

BingBang! wrote:Statistically, Giannis shoots 64% on 2 point shots - a lot of those very high percentage dunks and layins. So, yes, overall it's better to let the Bucks shoot a 3 than Giannis a 2 in terms of expected value. However, Middleton, shoots the 3 at 46% so it's better to let Giannis shoot a two then Middleton a three. This suggests when they double Giannis down low don't use Middleton's man. Sterling Brown has a 55.6% 3 point average (not a typo) so definitely stay on him as well. Everyone else their expected value from shooting a three is lower than Giannis' from shooting a 2.

Bing this is not directed to you in particular but to everyone that has responded to this thread.

There is no singular tactic to contain the Bucks and in particular, Giannis.

Kris shot an outstanding 37.8% from deep during the regular season. His 4 game performance against the Pistons is indicative of poor defense. For example, who was checking him?

What I see is a strategy to contain the freak AND shut down the 3 point shooters on the Bucks. The Freak is going to turn the ball over 3.5 times per game.

Give him fewer scoring opportunities. The Celtics can make this work if they are quick to rotate. That is the key. Anticipation on what happens next and and an immediate reaction before the next guy gets the ball. Reading their offense and being there to respond to their options. That is the key for shutting them down.

I expect Boston to win game one and flip this dog upside down.

dboss wrote:

BingBang! wrote:Statistically, Giannis shoots 64% on 2 point shots - a lot of those very high percentage dunks and layins. So, yes, overall it's better to let the Bucks shoot a 3 than Giannis a 2 in terms of expected value. However, Middleton, shoots the 3 at 46% so it's better to let Giannis shoot a two then Middleton a three. This suggests when they double Giannis down low don't use Middleton's man. Sterling Brown has a 55.6% 3 point average (not a typo) so definitely stay on him as well. Everyone else their expected value from shooting a three is lower than Giannis' from shooting a 2.

Bing this is not directed to you in particular but to everyone that has responded to this thread.

There is no singular tactic to contain the Bucks and in particular, Giannis.  

Kris shot an outstanding 37.8% from deep during the regular season.  His 4 game performance against the Pistons is indicative of poor defense.  For example, who was checking him?

What I see is a strategy to contain the freak AND shut down the 3 point shooters on the Bucks.  The Freak is going to turn the ball over 3.5 times per game.

Give him fewer scoring opportunities.  The Celtics can make this work if they are quick to rotate.  That is the key. Anticipation on what happens next and and an immediate reaction before the next guy gets the ball.  Reading their offense and being there to respond to their options.  That is the key for shutting them down.

I expect Boston to win game one and flip this dog upside down.

This a really thoughtful thread to follow and be part of. Gives a taste of the real problems Giannis presents. Historically, Celtics teams have had good fortune against teams with a dominant player.

Good point dboss, on Middleton, no one defends wings better than us, one of the reasons we match up so well with GS. Should be a great series, will not be easy....bring it on!!!!

Pats draft up next.

Talk later