Celtics need Tatum to become a no-questions-asked superstar in Year 3

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/celtics-tatum-become-no-questions-041150254.html




Celtics need Tatum to become a no-questions-asked superstar in Year 3



DJ Bean, NBC Sports Boston

22 hours ago



A couple of things happened this week that made me think of Jayson Tatum.

First, the Sixers signed Ben Simmons to a five-year max extension ahead of the final year of his rookie contract. Then, Bleacher Report put out its list of five breakout stars for the coming season, defined as players who had yet to become All-Stars but could in 2019-20. A command + F of "Tatum" yielded zero results.

Both things should jump out at you with regard to Tatum. If he plays his cards (basketball) right, he's getting a contract like Simmons', either next summer or at the conclusion of his deal.

But that list tells you at least some NBA observers don't see that happening, because that contract doesn't come unless Tatum ascends to the upper-echelon of NBA stars. We've assumed he would since his promising rookie season and subsequent playoff run, but Year 3 is the time for Tatum to actually start reaching for that ceiling.

What if it doesn't happen?

For starters, I'll cry myself to sleep every night, but this isn't about me. It's about the Celtics, who had one of the best players in the league and saw him mess up the team while he was here and the cap situation when he left.

The Celtics more or less need Tatum to become that level of star, minus the headache. They need a peer for Kemba Walker, one who could even surpass the UConn product in the prime years of his career.

That it didn't happen in Year 2 was frustrating. Tatum's points went up from 13.9 to 15.7 and his rebounds went from exactly five a game to six. Yet his player efficiency rating went down from 15.29 as a rookie to 15.13 in his second season, the latter of which ranked 138th in the league. The eye test didn't do major favors relative to expectations either, as his propensity for long 2s left everyone quick to angrily point to his offseason workouts with Kobe Bryant.

In the end, Tatum's second year looked more like Jaylen Brown's second year than most probably anticipated. He scored more, but Tatum's .450 field goal percentage and .373 clip on 3s were lower than Brown's marks (.465, .393, respectively) in his second year.

So, now the Celtics, having experienced a net loss of one star (Kyrie, Horford out; Kemba in), need another star. Ruling out Brown would be shortsighted, and I'm still not sure why so many have jumped ship completely on Gordon Hayward.

Yet, Tatum is the one that seems like the sure thing, and it hasn't happened all the way yet. If he doesn't become an All-Star-caliber player this season, what was once considered the luxury of Brown and/or Hayward becoming great will become a necessity if the Celtics want to make any sort of noise this season.

I think Tatum makes that step and becomes a fringe All-Star. Between his pedigree and his talent, it's seemingly within his grasp, but if he doesn't make that leap, it will hurt a hell of a lot more than it would had the Celtics been able to secure a multi-year commitment from Anthony Davis and/or Irving.

That longterm plan took a big hit this summer. Tatum's the guy who can put it back on track. If he does and the Celtics find any frontcourt help, the Celtics can set themselves up to be one of the top teams in the East for years. If his development stalls, the C's could be looking at either continued roster shakeup or years in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.



bob




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It would be great to see Tatum evolve into an NBA star type player this year, but it is not an absolute necessity.

He does, however, need to improve over last year for the Cs to be a better team. If the team has a more positive way about them, I believe that Tatum (and others) will improve more than he did last year.

I do not think he needs to evolve into a superstar this year. All I want to see continued growth and improvement.

Tatum and Brown will both be much better. They had a huge weight lifted off their shoulders with Kyrie gone, so time to go take that potential and translate it into performance.

20/10 is within reach - go get it boys.

If they can play as good as they did in 18 playoff run, we will be fine, Kantor, RW, Poirier, GW, Theis should add better rebounding and dirty work. Smart should be better as should 2 J’s, as should GH, with Walker and Carson and Romeo adding a further spark and depth, I see us fully loaded to make a run. Philly has no depth and 2 injury prone pieces at the 4-5. Toronto is done for now. Gonna come down to us and Bucks....

The writer of this article said the Celtics need Tatum to be a "no questions asked superstar" in year 3.
How many of those are there in the NBA, maybe 10?
Then he said he things Tatum will be a fringe all-star.

Tatum has NBA skills but does he have the heart and fire to be a super-star or even an all-star in the talent weak East?
Tatum seemed like he mentally gave up in his dreadful series against Milwaukee.

I have mentioned this before.
In 187 career NBA games, Tatum has scored 30 points in a game 1 time.
Most young, up and coming future stars, in two plus years have scored 30 points in a game 10 or 20 times.

I would not be surprised if Tatum scores 20 ppg this season.
He could even sneak in as a reserve or injury fill in all-star.
But a "no questions asked superstar" in year 3, highly unlikely.

tjmakz wrote:The writer of this article said the Celtics need Tatum to be a "no questions asked superstar" in year 3.
How many of those are there in the NBA, maybe 10?
Then he said he things Tatum will be a fringe all-star.

Tatum has NBA skills but does he have the heart and fire to be a super-star or even an all-star in the talent weak East?
Tatum seemed like he mentally gave up in his dreadful series against Milwaukee.

I have mentioned this before.
In 187 career NBA games, Tatum has scored 30 points in a game 1 time.
Most young, up and coming future stars, in two plus years have scored 30 points in a game 10 or 20 times.

I would not be surprised if Tatum scores 20 ppg this season.
He could even sneak in as a reserve or injury fill in all-star.
But a "no questions asked superstar" in year 3, highly unlikely.

This is just foolish.  

Vs Indiana - Tatum averaged 19.5 and 7, and dominated his match up every night.  Did he lose his mental toughness in the 4 days between series, or did a 20 year old just have a tough series vs a good Bucks team?

You know what your buddy Kuzma was doing at 20 years old?  Averaging 10 points per game at Utah.

Way too early to make proclamations on who is and isnt all star / star material.

July ,August and September - the fantasy world months of pro basketball - it's crystal ball time.

swish

What was Leonard doing in his 2nd year? Just curious.

db

hmmmm, 11.9 points a game.  Not too shabby!  

db

P.S. Let's put the smart money on Tatum was 15.7 points in his 2nd year.

mrkleen09 wrote:

tjmakz wrote:The writer of this article said the Celtics need Tatum to be a "no questions asked superstar" in year 3.
How many of those are there in the NBA, maybe 10?
Then he said he things Tatum will be a fringe all-star.

Tatum has NBA skills but does he have the heart and fire to be a super-star or even an all-star in the talent weak East?
Tatum seemed like he mentally gave up in his dreadful series against Milwaukee.

I have mentioned this before.
In 187 career NBA games, Tatum has scored 30 points in a game 1 time.
Most young, up and coming future stars, in two plus years have scored 30 points in a game 10 or 20 times.

I would not be surprised if Tatum scores 20 ppg this season.
He could even sneak in as a reserve or injury fill in all-star.
But a "no questions asked superstar" in year 3, highly unlikely.

This is just foolish.  

Vs Indiana - Tatum averaged 19.5 and 7, and dominated his match up every night.  Did he lose his mental toughness in the 4 days between series, or did a 20 year old just have a tough series vs a good Bucks team?

You know what your buddy Kuzma was doing at 20 years old?  Averaging 10 points per game at Utah.

Way too early to make proclamations on who is and isnt all star / star material.

This article was about THIS YEAR.
Not when Tatum is 23 or 25.

It's foolish to say Tatum and Brown will be 20 and 10 guys.
That is not who they are.
Brown has 4 double doubles in 266 career games.

tjmakz wrote:

This article was about THIS YEAR.
Not when Tatum is 23 or 25.

It's foolish to say Tatum and Brown will be 20 and 10 guys.
That is not who they are.
Brown has 4 double doubles in 266 career games.

Who is talking about being 23 or 25?

Tatum is 20 years old. He had a great series against the Pacers and then had a tough one (so did everyone else on this team) against the Bucks. Has zero to do with his mentality or his long term potential. He is a kid.

Over his two years in the playoffs, he is averaging 17.4 and 5.

Hows Kuzma's playoff stats looking? oh yeah - he never played in a big money game in his career.

mrkleen09 wrote:

tjmakz wrote:

This article was about THIS YEAR.
Not when Tatum is 23 or 25.

It's foolish to say Tatum and Brown will be 20 and 10 guys.
That is not who they are.
Brown has 4 double doubles in 266 career games.

Who is talking about being 23 or 25?

Tatum is 20 years old.  He had a great series against the Pacers and then had a tough one (so did everyone else on this team) against the Bucks.  Has zero to do with his mentality or his long term potential.  He is a kid.  

Over his two years in the playoffs, he is averaging 17.4 and 5.  

Hows Kuzma's playoff stats looking?  oh yeah - he never played in a big money game in his career.  

Tatum is 21. He has been for 4 1/2 months.
What does Kuzma have to do with this conversation?
So, are you expecting Tatum to be a 20/10 all-star/superstar this season?

tjmakz wrote:

Tatum is 21. He has been for 4 1/2 months.
What does Kuzma have to do with this conversation?
So, are you expecting Tatum to be a 20/10 all-star/superstar this season?

I am expecting Tatum to have a much better season and if he falls short of 20/10, he will get there soon. You questioning his heart and fire is a joke.

My contrasting of Kuzma vs Tatum is to show just how young Jayson is. He was dropping 26 in the Eastern Conference Finals against Lebron- at the same age that Kyle was matching up with Boise State. Yes, that is relevant.

mrkleen09 wrote:

tjmakz wrote:

Tatum is 21. He has been for 4 1/2 months.
What does Kuzma have to do with this conversation?
So, are you expecting Tatum to be a 20/10 all-star/superstar this season?

I am expecting Tatum to have a much better season and if he falls short of 20/10, he will get there soon.  You questioning his heart and fire is a joke.

My contrasting of Kuzma vs Tatum is to show just how young Jayson is.  He was dropping 26 in the Eastern Conference Finals against Lebron- at the same age that Kyle was matching up with Boise State.  Yes, that is relevant.

Tatum will never be a 10 rebound per game player.
He definitely could be a 20 ppg scorer.
Tatum was pulled out of games by Brad many times in the regular season and against Milwaukee because of missed defensive assignments and lack of effort, especially on defense.
Every player matures/peaks at a different age.
Kemba Walker had his best season at 28.
Siakam averaged only 7 ppg as a 23 year old.
What Tatum has done is pretty irrelevant to other players in the league.
Again, this discussion is about what Tatum will do this upcoming season.
I like players who have fire and fight every play, even if their skill level is below others.
I don't like players like Markelle Fultz who don't play with energy or fire.

tjmakz wrote: I like players who have fire and fight every play, even if their skill level is below others.
I don't like players like Markelle Fultz who don't play with energy or fire.

Kawai is as cool as a cucumber and is the best player in the NBA right now. Your definition of "fire" is in no way a measurement for who will be a great player. I will bet my chips on Tatum thanks.

mrkleen09 wrote:

tjmakz wrote:  I like players who have fire and fight every play, even if their skill level is below others.
I don't like players like Markelle Fultz who don't play with energy or fire.

Kawai is as cool as a cucumber and is the best player in the NBA right now.  Your definition of "fire" is in no way a measurement for who will be a great player.  I will bet my chips on Tatum thanks.

Fire does not equal pace of play.
You should be happy to have Tatum on your team.
He will be probably be a good 20 ppg scorer for years.

I just hope Tatum and Brown continue to improve overall.

I've said before I want them both starting along with Kanter , Walker and Smart.

Gordon "Havlicek" Hayward can run the second team with his ball handling and scoring . I really hope this becomes the rotation ,as I think this gives us the best chance to compete night in and night out.

we'll need someone to step up when we go against teams with two bigs (and I would note when I look at rosters now, more and more teams are doing just that). The age of small ball be seeing some changes now.

Theis, Rob or Grant W. will likely have to step up more than we expect this year.

The guy I think may be ready to take a big jump is Jaylen Brown.  This is year 4 coming up and his maturity last year was tested and he aced the test. 

Tatum had a very solid year 2.  His 3 point shooting percentage went down from a blistering 43.4% to a very respectable 37.3.  He averaged 6 boards vs 5 the previous year and his FT shooting went from 82.6% to 85.5%.  In year one he was a great catch and shoot 3 point guy but last year he took more shots off the bounce it seemed.  He still has a flaw in his jump shot that tends to show up when his shot is challenged.  He remains a guy without a lot of bulk but he is a damn good rebounder.

Both him and Jaylen need to work on being better facilitators and ball handlers.  

When we look at trying to project how many points and rebounds a guy will have, we tend to do so while floating around inside of a bubble.  Scoring remains a function associated with shot attempts.  Rebounding is often associated with position.  

The Celtics have 5 primary scorers going into this year.  Walker, Brown, Kanter, Hayward and Tatum.  

Walker is a gunner but on this team he needs to reduce his FGA's.  Both Brown and Hayward were underutilized last year.  

I would like to see a shot distribution with Walker at 16 FGA followed by Hayward, Brown and Tatum at 14 each and Kanter at 10.   Boston averaged around 90 FGA last season and I think they can push that total up to the mid 90's because of better offensive rebounding and more fast break opportunities.

Do you see how I have deviated so far away from Tatum as a 20/10 guy?

The veteran roster has been paired down significantly and the core is much smaller so I think Brad should get his core more minutes and more shoots.  

And let's not forget our top all NBA defender. He must get big minutes but he is comfortable in taking 8-10 FGA per game.  

The most backup minutes will come from the 5 spot because Kanter is a 25 MPG player.

since you talked minutes Dboss, got me thinking about how i see the distribution going with the roster right now.

my guess would be:

Kanter- 26 /G- 2000 total
Tatum- 30/G- 2400
Brown- 30/G- 2400
Smart- 30/g- 2400
Walker- 30/G- 2400
Hayward- 30/G- 2400
Theis- 16/G- 1400
Rob W. - 16/G- 1400
Grant W. - 14/G- 1200

as the main rotational players

the following spot players;

Semi -400 total min.
Carson E.-400
Poirier--400
Langford-200
Wanamaker--200
Tacko-----100

kdp59 wrote:since you talked minutes Dboss, got me thinking about how i see the distribution going with the roster right now.

my guess would be:

Kanter- 26 /G- 2000 total
Tatum- 30/G- 2400
Brown- 30/G- 2400
Smart- 30/g- 2400
Walker- 30/G- 2400
Hayward- 30/G- 2400
Theis- 16/G- 1400
Rob W. - 16/G- 1400
Grant W. - 14/G- 1200

as the main rotational players

the following spot players;

Semi -400 total min.
Carson E.-400
Poirier--400
Langford-200
Wanamaker--200
Tacko-----100

KDP59

I agree with the top 6 although Walker probably plays more than 30 MPG as well as Tatum.   Kanter may get less minutes than 26

The only position that does not have a full time starter is center.  Williams and Poirier will compete for minutes at the 5 but when Boston goes to a big frontcourt lineup I expect RW to play some PF.

At guard Carson Edwards looks to me like a guy that will get at least 15 MPG off the bench.  Where do they get scoring off the bench?  Carson looks like the only legit 3 point shooter off the bench.  That demands minutes from him.

The big problem with this team remains.  We have too many players between 6' 7"  and 6' 8".    The Celtics are going to play without a traditional PF in the lineup as either JT or GH will start at PF.  All backups fall into the same undersized category unless RW gets some run at the 4.

Overall the 4 position is a traffic jam.  Danny should consider moving 1 or 2 players from the PF position.

I would like for Boston to establish an 8 main rotation plus 2.  Some guys are just not going to play.  Start with a shortened rotation to develop chemistry and then add to it as needed.  

I do believe that Danny can bring more balance to the team by making a trade.  I would try to move either Semi or Daniel to add a veteran PF who would be a primary backup or could slide into the starting unit when Boston needs to go big.  

It is always interesting to see how a team with so many new faces comes together.