Celtics' Danny Ainge doesn't expect Jayson Tatum to play enough to win Rookie of Year

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/celtics-danny-ainge-doesnt-expect-jayson-tatum-to-play-enough-to-win-rookie-of-year/



Celtics' Danny Ainge doesn't expect Jayson Tatum to play enough to win Rookie of Year



Tatum will have to compete with a number of players for minutes on the wing


    Jack Maloney
mugshot by Jack Maloney
@jackmaloneycbs
19h ago • 2 min read



Danny Ainge is confident that Jayson Tatum is going to be a good pro for a long time.

This much is clear not only from his quotes, such as when he said "[Jayson's] going to be a terrific player" on draft night, but also from the fact that he was willing to pass on everyone else in a highly-anticipated draft class to grab Tatum.

His high hopes, however, do not include Tatum winning this season's Rookie of the Year award. Not because he's not good enough be named the top rookie of his class, but because Ainge says he simply doesn't think he'll play enough to get the kind of numbers that are usually necessary to win the award. Via the Boston Globe:

"I think Terry [Rozier] and Marcus [Smart] are really ready to step up," Ainge said. "And Jayson and Jaylen we can be a little bit more patient with, but they are going to play an important role."

"We'll see what minutes [Tatum] will earn. I'm not worried about how they will play when the lights go on. It will be unlikely that Jayson is Rookie of the Year because it will probably come from a team that starts their rookies and plays them 35 minutes per night."

Looking at the Celtics' depth chart right now, this makes perfect sense.

Most of the time, the favorites for ROY are the guys drafted at the top of the draft by bad teams who have plenty of minutes up for grabs. Playing more minutes equals more production, and the ROY award is pretty much only about production. In the last decade, the only ROY who didn't play over 30 minutes a game was Malcolm Brogdon, who won the honor last season in what was a pretty weak field. And even then, he was getting over 26 minutes a night.

As for Tatum, barring injury there's really just no way he's playing anywhere near 30-35 minutes a night this season. He'll have to compete with the likes of Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Morris for minutes on the wing. And that doesn't even take into account other youngsters such as Guerschon Yabusele and Semi Ojeleye, who will be trying to get into the rotation.

In his rookie campaign last season, Brown played about 17 minutes a night, and that's probably a fair estimate for how much Tatum will play this season as the Celtics try to work him into their system.



bob
MY NOTE: I expect Tatum to get about the same minutes this year that Brown got last year, about 17mpg, unless he over-focuses on his offense and not enough on his defense, then he'll get fewer. With Irving and Hayward and the rest of the scorers we have on this team if Tatum thinks his ticket to the floor will be by shooting then he doesn't understand what it will take. He is a very talented offensive player for his age, he now has to use his length to become a talented (or, at least, learn the defensive rotations well) defender.

And, no, he won't win ROY for the reasons Danny said. Simmons (if he's healthy), Ball, Fox and others will get the minutes that will produce the numbers.


.

Kevin McHale didn't win RoY in his first year, but you could see how good and effective he was right from the start.

I have a feeling, just a hunch with no stats to back me up that Tatum will show that he belongs from the get go and be much more polished and effective than Jaylen was at the start of his rookie year.

cowens/oldschool wrote:Kevin McHale didn't win RoY in his first year, but you could see how good and effective he was right from the start.

I have a feeling, just a hunch with no stats to back me up that Tatum will show that he belongs from the get go and be much more polished and effective than Jaylen was at the start of his rookie year.

Cow,

I agree, I think Tatum will look better in the beginning than Jaylen did. My reasoning is that Brown sucked on defense in the beginning, he looked lost, and so will Tatum but Tatum will score more buckets.

But how about the post All-Star part of the season? Brown's defense gelled and his offense flowed a bit better. This is because he is a naturally more defensively-oriented player and his offense is good not great (as of last year) and he gained confidence. If Tatum's defense does not improve, and he is not a naturally defensively-oriented player, then he will not end up next year as well as Brown ended up his rookie year because Brad will be hesitant to use him as anything other than how he used Gerald Green, who was a "In Case of Emergency, Break Glass" player.


bob


.

I'd expect more minutes than Brown had last year and that he would have the opportunity off the bench to score, maybe 12 points in 25 minutes. Obviously that shouldn't be enough to win ROY with Ball, DSJ, Simmons, and Fox likely getting more minutes. He's the best scorer outside of Kyrie and Hayward on our team. As long as he plays good enough individual defense, he'll get opportunities.

Awards are not about the Celtic's, its about titles. If any player wins one that's great.

I wouldn't worry about ROY either.

My expectation is that Tatum will earn more minutes than Brown did last year simply because I think Tatum is going to be much stronger on both ends than Brown was.  As long as Stevens doesn't sit on Tatum because he's a rookie, I'm betting we're going to see a very fast developing NBA player.

If it goes as I think it can, I believe Tatum will prove Ainge wrong on at least the amount of playing time.

Wouldn't it be great if this kid could surprise both Ainge and Stevens and earn more minutes than they are apparently thinking about at this time?

He certainly seems to have a lot more offensive skills going into his first year than any other Cs first round picks in a long, long time. Far ahead of where Jaylen Brown was on offense at the beginning of last season, and maybe talented nough to over look a few extra defensive mistakes along the way.

He will learn the defense as he goes along, but if he can score 15 a game he may not have to sit as much as Ainge is thinking. Of course, scoring 15 per game is not easy for anyone in the NBA, but if any rookie can do it Tatum may be able to accomplish this task off what I saw in the summer games.

Tatum is also coming in at an absolutely great time for him as well. With only four returning players it would seem that there will be more competition for minutes than with last year's squad returning over ten players from the 2016 season. Yes, I understand that Irving and Haywood will get spots/minutes, but the rest of the squad may be more unsettled at least early in the season. Really, only Horford returns with a totally solid hold on a starting spot from my view with Brown, Smart and Rozier still not guaranteed specific roles or minutes at this time.

I do not look for Tatum to average 15.  I would be very happy with double digits.

I do agree that playing time is wide open.

Dboss

wow, I guess I don't see who is sitting no the bench while Tatum is playing 25 min/game and scoring those 15 points.

not Hayward for sure (at $30M....nope).

Smart and Brown?

that's the only other options this year.


nothing much has changed for me since "the Trade", when it comes to minutes this year;

Horford-2400
Morris-2400
Hayward-2400
Smart-2400
Irving-2400

bench rotation:
Jaylen-2000
Baynes-1400
Rozier-1400
Tatum-1400
Theis and/or Yabusele- 1000-1200

deep bench the other 200-400 minutes

kdp59 wrote:wow, I guess I don't see who is sitting no the bench while Tatum is playing 25 min/game and scoring those 15 points.

not Hayward for sure (at $30M....nope).

Smart and Brown?

that's the only other options this year.


nothing much has changed for me since "the Trade", when it comes to minutes this year;

Horford-2400
Morris-2400
Hayward-2400
Smart-2400
Irving-2400

bench rotation:
Jaylen-2000
Baynes-1400
Rozier-1400
Tatum-1400
Theis and/or Yabusele- 1000-1200

deep bench the other 200-400 minutes

kdp,

Looks good, although I would question a few points:

1.  Terry Rozier played 1263 minutes last year.  You think he's only going to play another 138 this year?  If that's the case, with Bradley gone, then he's going to be traded because that is unacceptable growth.

2.  Assuming Morris misses no games due to his legal problems I find it hard to see him playing as many minutes as Hayward, Thomas and Horford.  He played 2565 minutes last year on a team going nowhere.  His only serious competition for minutes at his position was Tobias Harris, who usually plays 3 anyway.  Predicting him to play only 165 minutes fewer this year strikes me as pretty aggressive (and I know something about being aggressive).

3.  Al Horford only played 2193 minutes last year.  That was, in large part, because he missed a bunch of games due to injuries (he only played in 68).  Injuries, however, should be anticipated again this year just because, well, shit happens.  He's a year older and the oldest player on the team, a KEY player, one of the few starters with a SIGNIFICANT drop off in talent behind him on the depth chart (I would say Kyrie might be another.  We don't have another gunner coming off the bench at his position.  Defenders?  Yeah, TRo comes immediately to mind, but shooters?  Shane Larkin could run an offense but he isn't known for lighting people up.  Still, better depth behind him than behind Al) and it is absolutely essential for him to be fresh when the playoffs come around.  He averaged 32.3mpg during the season, in the 68 games he played.  I'm expecting that to come down to 30mpg or so.  Last year we had Kelly and Zeller and Amir playing back up center.  This year we have Baynes and Theis, with Baynes being a legit NBA backup center.  Baynes played 1163 minutes last year.  He came here for more minutes and I'll bet 238 more isn't going to make him happy, nor should it.  He's not only the only legit back up center he is also the only real beef (Drummond could fill that role on Detroit) on a team that desperately needs a rebounder and who got pushed around on the boards last year.  

4.  I'm also going to go out on a limb and predict more minutes for Theis.  Unless Danny signs or trades for a veteran big Theis will be playing more minutes than Jonas Jerebko last year because Jonas was caught in a numbers crunch.  We are so thin at big about the only thing that will hold him back, in my opinion, will be his ability to flatten out his learning curve.

4 days to camp, 11 days to the first pre-season game.


bob


.

all my projections assume no injuries. so adjust accordingly.

if Bradley were still here , one would assume he only plays about 60 games.

Leuer played a lot of minutes for Detroit last year also, you forgot. and while you are laughing at that, Detoit gave him a $10M salary.

kdp,

I'm not a big stats guy, unless it comes to batting averages and ERAs.  I think you've done a thoughtful job on projections, however.

If I may take a different slant, using your work (I'm being lazy here), I can see more minutes going to Tatum by subtraction of minutes you've allotted to Morris, Smart, Brown, Theis and Yabusele.  I'm not as good as you at crunching the numbers, so I'm not going to even try.  All I can add is that I expect Tatum has enough game coming out of the gate to earn more minutes than Baynes.  I don't expect to see Theis or Yabusele much this year, despite our need for bigs.  I'm guessing not much more than 600 each for those two.  I think Morris goes maybe 2,000 tops.  Lots and lots of small-ball coming IMO.  I believe Tatum has what's needed to at least even up minutes with Brown this year, given their respective skill-sets and probable fit in Stevens' schemes.

I'm venturing this guess without Tatum yet having played a single minute, completely awake, and still on my meds.  Well, I take vitamin D anyway.

Either way, I like your work.

Regards

kdp59 wrote:all my projections assume no injuries. so adjust accordingly.

if Bradley were still here , one would assume he only plays about 60 games.

Leuer played a lot of minutes for Detroit last year also,  you forgot. and while you are laughing at that, Detoit gave him a $10M salary.

Kdp,

Leuer played 1944 minutes last year.  Holy Guacamole!!  No wonder Baynes left!  When you are 3rd on the depth chart behind Jon Leuer there is nothing left for you there except despair and slow death.  Leuer is like Hawes without the manbun (which is to say a marshmallow without any distinguishing characteristics).  Jon Leuer playing against Spencer Hawes is non-violent white-on-white crime where the victims are the fans...


bob


.

well Bob, check out his contract the Pistons gave him last year.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/detroit-pistons/jon-leuer-8092/

4year/$42MILLION!!