Time To Turn the J's Loose

For me it's all about team superioity in EFG%  - which I consider to be the best stistical stat line predictor of success. Brown and Tatum hopefully will be able to put up high efg% numbers to help the Celtics to a high EFG% ranking.

 swish

Swish - I agree. When I think about increased fga per game I can’t get rid of the picture of the ball crossing mid court and someone quickly launches a 3. I believe this team plays better when the ball moves quickly and efficiently resulting in a quality fga. I do think that spreading around the attempts is a direct result of ball movement rather than hero or isolation ball.

I'm greedy. I want both an increase in fgas and fg%.  But how to do it?

Run, baby, run.

Run on missed shots, we have the rebounders now to feel confident we will have possession.

Run on made shots, if nothing else we'll get into our offense sooner which will put more pressure on the defense.  When the shot clock goes under 5 seconds it becomes the defense's best friend.  We want to not give them that.

Running will create opportunities because the defense won't be set.  Running creates opportunities because we're going downhill towards the rim and layups, or at least shots in the restricted area, are higher fg% shots.  An uptempo game will give me the higher fgas and fg% I want, and we have to youth to play this game. Jaylen, Jayson, Carsen, Romeo, even Hayward all can run. Strong rebounding, outlet passes and everybody else running and not worrying about pacing themselves for the minutes.

Run, baby, run.


bob


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bobheckler wrote:I'm greedy.  I want both an increase in fgas and fg%.  But how to do it?

Run, baby, run.

Run on missed shots, we have the rebounders now to feel confident we will have possession.

Run on made shots, if nothing else we'll get into our offense sooner which will put more pressure on the defense.  When the shot clock goes under 5 seconds it becomes the defense's best friend.  We want to not give them that.

Running will create opportunities because the defense won't be set.  Running creates opportunities because we're going downhill towards the rim and layups, or at least shots in the restricted area, are higher fg% shots.  An uptempo game will give me the higher fgas and fg% I want, and we have to youth to play this game.  Jaylen, Jayson, Carsen, Romeo, even Hayward all can run.  Strong rebounding, outlet passes and everybody else running and not worrying about pacing themselves for the minutes.

Run, baby, run.


bob


.

+1

cowens/oldschool wrote:

bobheckler wrote:I'm greedy.  I want both an increase in fgas and fg%.  But how to do it?

Run, baby, run.

Run on missed shots, we have the rebounders now to feel confident we will have possession.

Run on made shots, if nothing else we'll get into our offense sooner which will put more pressure on the defense.  When the shot clock goes under 5 seconds it becomes the defense's best friend.  We want to not give them that.

Running will create opportunities because the defense won't be set.  Running creates opportunities because we're going downhill towards the rim and layups, or at least shots in the restricted area, are higher fg% shots.  An uptempo game will give me the higher fgas and fg% I want, and we have to youth to play this game.  Jaylen, Jayson, Carsen, Romeo, even Hayward all can run.  Strong rebounding, outlet passes and everybody else running and not worrying about pacing themselves for the minutes.

Run, baby, run.


bob


.

+1

Bob and oldschool

 The champ in the last 19 years has excelled in EFG% (ranking 4.6th out of 30 teams) while it's FGA ranking IS A MIDDLE OF THE PACK 16.7TH OUT OF 30 TEAMS. No indication
here that high fga is common to high EFG% as in 10 of the 19 years the champ ranked 19 twice, 21th, 24th twice, 26th twice,  27th twice, and 30th.

  swish

Swish interesting, good to know, good research....well glad we’re gonna be a better rebounding team, hopefully we will be a beast on the boards.

swish wrote:For me it's all about team superioity in EFG%  - which I consider to be the best stistical stat line predictor of success. Brown and Tatum hopefully will be able to put up high efg% numbers to help the Celtics to a high EFG% ranking.

 swish

Swish the EFG is an excellent stats but I prefer TS percentage because it combines 2P FG's, 3P FG's and FT

Playing with pace can help a team that may not be a great shooting team.  

How well this team shoots is one important element of having a great offense.  How they get their points is another.  

I think Boston will see improvement in scoring in the paint and also on fast break opportunities and from the line.

The theme of this thread centers around getting the J's more scoring opportunities.   I think they can become 18 PPG players provided they get more shot attempts.  The Celtics should also get GH a lot more shot attempts.

dboss wrote:

swish wrote:For me it's all about team superioity in EFG%  - which I consider to be the best stistical stat line predictor of success. Brown and Tatum hopefully will be able to put up high efg% numbers to help the Celtics to a high EFG% ranking.

 swish

Swish the EFG is an excellent stats but I prefer TS percentage because it combines 2P FG's, 3P FG's and FT

Playing with pace can help a team that may not be a great shooting team.  

How well this team shoots is one important element of having a great offense.  How they get their points is another.  

I think Boston will see improvement in scoring in the paint and also on fast break opportunities and from the line.

The theme of this thread centers around getting the J's more scoring opportunities.   I think they can become 18 PPG players provided they get more shot attempts.  The Celtics should also get GH a lot more shot attempts.

dboss

Last 19 years had the champs with an average FT% league ranking of 13.6 - not a big factor when compared to the EFG% ranking of 4.6
As to the J's and GH getting more shots - more importantly will be how high their EFG% turns out to be.

swish

swish wrote:

dboss wrote:

swish wrote:For me it's all about team superioity in EFG%  - which I consider to be the best stistical stat line predictor of success. Brown and Tatum hopefully will be able to put up high efg% numbers to help the Celtics to a high EFG% ranking.

 swish

Swish the EFG is an excellent stats but I prefer TS percentage because it combines 2P FG's, 3P FG's and FT

Playing with pace can help a team that may not be a great shooting team.  

How well this team shoots is one important element of having a great offense.  How they get their points is another.  

I think Boston will see improvement in scoring in the paint and also on fast break opportunities and from the line.

The theme of this thread centers around getting the J's more scoring opportunities.   I think they can become 18 PPG players provided they get more shot attempts.  The Celtics should also get GH a lot more shot attempts.

  dboss

Last 19 years had the champs with an average FT% league ranking of 13.6 - not a big factor when compared to the EFG% ranking of 4.6
As to the J's and GH getting more shots - more importantly will be how high their EFG% turns out to be.

 swish

Swish

FTA has been trending down for a long time

However I never suggested that FT% trumps EFG%.  I just believe that TS% is more inclusive because it does measure the impact of FT shooting and FT shooting still impacts the game.

Consider this.  Boston was 14th in the league last year in PPG.  Every team above them had more FTA per game than Boston

[url=https://stats.nba.com/teams/traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season]https://stats.nba.com/teams/traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season[/url]

This more than supports the offensive argument that Boston needs to get to the line more because they will average more points per game.

Nothing should be looked at in a vacuum.  FT attempts, rebounds and PITP are areas where Boston can get a lot better.  

As far as the J's are concerned, if you do not get x  numbers of shots you are only going to score y number of points.  The J's and GH are pretty damn good in their shooting and each needs to improve on that.  The bottom line, If GH and the J's are your best offensive players you need to get them more shots relative to other players on the team.

Kemba Walker is not as efficient as a shooter as any on the 3.

FTAs reduce the likelihood of an empty possession down to 43.3% at worst (Jaylen Brown is our worst frito shooter, a career 65.8%.  65.8% X 65.8% = 44.3%.  That's his odds of making at least 1 ftm out of 2 and therefore not having an empty possession.  Every other player has a better ft% and is more likely to walk away with something).  This obviously gets chucked out the window with Tacko.

Fewer empty possessions is what we want.  FGM are best but FTM, which require FTAs, are good too.


bob


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All stat line numbers play a role, to some degree, in a teams record - but it's a fact that EFG% does a SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER job of pointing out the best teams when compared to rebounds, fga's and ft%.

swish

Bob

I am 100% sure Boston will get more FT attempts this year.

Consider that last year AL 1.4 and Irving 3.7 are replaced by Walker at 5.5 and Kanter at 3.0

Also the interesting thing about  GW, RL and CE is that all 3 got to the line at a high rate in college.

GW 7, RL 6.1 and CE 6.1

Getting to the line is not just about scoring points.  It provides an important strategy to put the other team in a less aggressive defensive posture when they are at or over the limit.  It can also take a key player out of the game with foul trouble.

dboss wrote:Bob

I am 100% sure Boston will get more FT attempts this year.

Consider that last year AL 1.4 and Irving 3.7 are replaced by Walker at 5.5 and Kanter at 3.0

Also the interesting thing about  GW, RL and CE is that all 3 got to the line at a high rate in college.

GW 7, RL 6.1 and CE 6.1

Getting to the line is not just about scoring points.  It provides an important strategy to put the other team in a less aggressive defensive posture when they are at or over the limit.  It can also take a key player out of the game with foul trouble.

Dboss,

Absolutely.  100%.  There is no downside to more frito attempts.  In the case of Kemba and Kanter they will both get a lot of minutes, so their higher fta rate will matter.  The rooks?  Who knows how much they will play.

We need the J's to up their rates because they will be playing heavy minutes.


bob


.

bobheckler wrote:

dboss wrote:Bob

I am 100% sure Boston will get more FT attempts this year.

Consider that last year AL 1.4 and Irving 3.7 are replaced by Walker at 5.5 and Kanter at 3.0

Also the interesting thing about  GW, RL and CE is that all 3 got to the line at a high rate in college.

GW 7, RL 6.1 and CE 6.1

Getting to the line is not just about scoring points.  It provides an important strategy to put the other team in a less aggressive defensive posture when they are at or over the limit.  It can also take a key player out of the game with foul trouble.

Dboss,

Absolutely.  100%.  There is no downside to more frito attempts.  In the case of Kemba and Kanter they will both get a lot of minutes, so their higher fta rate will matter.  The rooks?  Who knows how much they will play.

We need the J's to up their rates because they will be playing heavy minutes.


bob


.

  Bob

Here again we have a stat (fta) that has a 14.1 ranking average over the last 19 years.

  swish

Swish

We need for the Boston Celtics to be above average in a lot of areas.  A focus on areas where Boston is below average (Offensive Rebounds, PITP and FTA) will have a positive impact.

The makeover that has occurred addresses all 3 of the areas mentioned above.   

Our new starting center was 5th in the NBA in offensive rebounds.  The rookie VP is supposed to also be a strong rebounder and can score at the rim as can Kanter.  Second year player RW looks ready to contribute.  Boston is going to improve their rebounding performance and we should see an improvement in points in the paint.  Boston will get to the line more because we have guys that will do a lot of damage at the rim.

I cannot recall a Celtics draft where they added 3 guys each of whom has the ability to get to the rim at a high rate and get to the line.

This team will look different in many respects but they will still have the ability to score from the perimeter.  That will still be a major part of their offense however more second chance points off offensive rebounds, more trips to the line and more fast break opportunities due to improved rebounding on the defensive glass will further enhance the offense.

dboss wrote:Swish

We need for the Boston Celtics to be above average in a lot of areas.  A focus on areas where Boston is below average (Offensive Rebounds, PITP and FTA) will have a positive impact.

The makeover that has occurred addresses all 3 of the areas mentioned above.   

Our new starting center was 5th in the NBA in offensive rebounds.  The rookie VP is supposed to also be a strong rebounder and can score at the rim as can Kanter.  Second year player RW looks ready to contribute.  Boston is going to improve their rebounding performance and we should see an improvement in points in the paint.  Boston will get to the line more because we have guys that will do a lot of damage at the rim.

I cannot recall a Celtics draft where they added 3 guys each of whom has the ability to get to the rim at a high rate and get to the line.

This team will look different in many respects but they will still have the ability to score from the perimeter.  That will still be a major part of their offense however more second chance points off offensive rebounds, more trips to the line and more fast break opportunities due to improved rebounding on the defensive glass will further enhance the offense.

 dboss

 Being proficient in any stat line figure is a plus - and any improvement in your above named stats will be welcome - but the biggest stat with out question and the one to keep your  eye on for the Celtics is the EFG% stat - both offense and defense. Its the trump card that has the champ in the last 19 years having an offensive or defensive EFG% average ranking of 2.5. In this modern generation it's all about excellence in shooting or stopping it defensively.

 swish

Swish

I can see that you love that measurement.

I still prefer the more inclusive TS% stat. The TS tends to be higher than the EFG

I think the most inportantant things are the underlying proficiencies that contribute to achieving hifh rankings for the EFG and TS.

dboss wrote:Swish

I can see that you love that measurement.  

I still prefer the more inclusive TS% stat.  The TS tends to be higher than the EFG

I think the most inportantant things are the underlying proficiencies that contribute to achieving hifh rankings for the EFG and TS.

dboss

Your right about my love for the EFG as a predictor of champs. I've just completed charting the last 19 years - ranking 8 different stat categories as to league ranking each of the nineteen years - EFG(OFFENSE), EFG(DEFENSE), REBS, FGA, FT%, FTA, AST, AND 3PA. It's really an eye opener. Now I'm trying to figure out how to post this document - help.

swish

Swish as you examine the data it would be interesting to see what the trends look like.

Maybe apply a moving average to your numbers.  For example how about a 5 YMA (average years 1-5 and then 2-6 and them 3-7)  

I have nothing better to do than pass out assignments, lol

dboss wrote:Swish as you examine the data it would be interesting to see what the trends look like.

Maybe apply a moving average to your numbers.  For example how about a 5 YMA (average years 1-5 and then 2-6 and them 3-7)  

I have nothing better to do than pass out assignments, lol

dboss

Stiil no success with posting my info - but I have help coming this weekend - so here goes with 4 of the eight stat categories to give an idea of the variations between stats.

Starting with the most recent champ with the stats listed by column. TEAM RANKING FOR THAT YEAR

TEAM,,,,, EFG-OFFENSE,,,,,EFG-DEFENSE,,,,,REBS,,,,,FT%
TOR,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,17,,,,,,,,8
GS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,17,,,,,,,,,1
GS................1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,7,,,,,,,,,,8
CLE,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 4,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,13,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,9,,,,,,,,,,21
GS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6,,,,,,,,,,9
SPURS,,,,,,,,, 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,12,,,,,,,,,4
MIA,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,9,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,30,,,,,,,,,17
MIA,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,9,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,21,,,,,,,,,7
DAL,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,9,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,14,,,,,,,,,11
LAL,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,15,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,7,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,12
LAL,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,3
BOS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,13,,,,,,,,,8
SPURS,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,16,,,,,,,,,17
MIA,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,10,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,6
SPURS,,,,,,,,,,6,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,12,,,,,,,,,26
DET,,,,,,,,,,,,,,20,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,11,,,,,,,,15
SPURS,,,,,,,,, 4,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,11,,,,,,,,26
LAL,,,,,,,,,,,,,4,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3,,,,,,,,,,29
LAL,,,,,,,,,,,,,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,13,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5,,,,,,,,,,29
I'll post the other 4 later.
By the way - TS has just about the same ranking as the EFG-offense stats.

swish

	EFG	TS
Raptors	3	4
GS	1	1
GS	1	1
cavs	3	4
GS	1	1
Spurs	2	2
Heat	1	1
Heat	3	4
Mavs	4	2
LAL	15	16

Swish here is a 10 Year snap shot of EFG and a team's corresponding TS.  The team with the best EFG won 4 out of 10 titles.  In 5 of 10 years teams had identical rankings for EFG and TS.  In 6 out of the last 10 years the team with the best EFG did not win.

I am not sure looking at a 19 or 20 year spread is helpful because of the proliferation of 3PA and + 3PM.

The EFG however looks to be a better overall indicator than the TS as Toronto, Cleveland, Miami and LA all won in situations where their EFG ranking was higher than their TS percentage.  It would be interesting to look at how those teams shot FT.   

More numbers crunching needed.

dboss wrote:

	EFG	TS
Raptors	3	4
GS	1	1
GS	1	1
cavs	3	4
GS	1	1
Spurs	2	2
Heat	1	1
Heat	3	4
Mavs	4	2
LAL	15	16

Swish here is a 10 Year snap shot of EFG and a team's corresponding TS.  The team with the best EFG won 4 out of 10 titles.  In 5 of 10 years teams had identical rankings for EFG and TS.  In 6 out of the last 10 years the team with the best EFG did not win.

I am not sure looking at a 19 or 20 year spread is helpful because of the proliferation of 3PA and + 3PM.

The EFG however looks to be a better overall indicator than the TS as Toronto, Cleveland, Miami and LA all won in situations where their EFG ranking was higher than their TS percentage.  It would be interesting to look at how those teams shot FT.   

More numbers crunching needed.

dboss

Somethings have just not changed over the years - even with the 3 point shot being so much more popular now than back in the 80's.  It was all about the EFG THEN - like it is now. Data on the 80's to follow shortly.

Note my stats on FT% IN MY previous CHART.

 SWISH

Here's the chart for the 80's - 1979-80 through 1989-90

  TEAM,,,,,,,,,,EFG-OFFENCE,,,,,,,EFG-DEFENCE,,,,,,REBS,,,,,,,FT%
LAKERS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,7,,,,,,,,,,,,6
CELTS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,13,,,,,,,,,,,11
LAKERS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,11,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,22
76ERS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,9
CELTS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3,,,,,,,,,,,,2
LAKERS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,9,,,,,,,,,,,,12
CELTS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,2
LAKERS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,11,,,,,,,,,,4
LAKERS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,9,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,11,,,,,,,,,,5
PISTONS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,7,,,,,,,,,,,15
PISTONS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,13,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,10,,,,,,,,,,13

  Between the efg offense and defense - It was dominance in both the 80's and now.

  swish