Is the No. 2 seed in reach for restart Celtics?

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/no-2-seed-reach-restart-celtics



Is the No. 2 seed in reach for restart Celtics?



By Chris Forsberg

June 26, 2020 8:17 PM



Can the Boston Celtics catch the Toronto Raptors for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference?

As you digest Friday’s schedule release, which mapped out the eight games that all 22 teams will play when the NBA restarts in Orlando next month, the lingering question is whether Boston has any chance to shimmy up the East standings before the playoffs begin.

The schedule-makers have at least given the Celtics a chance to climb, all while secure that they won’t fall lower than the No. 3 spot.

Boston (43-21) will enter the restart three games back of Toronto (46-18) with a potentially pivotal head-to-head matchup looming on August 7. The Celtics’ will be challenged out of the gates in seeding games — drawing the East-leading Bucks in their opener, playing a Portland team that will be fighting for its playoff lives in Game 2, and trying to fend off the nearby Heat in Game 3.

But the rest of the schedule, outside of the Toronto game, is especially agreeable and will give Boston a chance to build some momentum before the playoffs arrive.

Toronto, meanwhile, has one of the more challenging slates. Not only do the Raptors play the Heat and Bucks, but there are games against Philadelphia, Denver, and the West-leading Lakers.

Making up three games over an eight-game schedule will be no easy chore for Boston. Losing that Toronto game would almost surely lock up the No. 2 spot for the Raptors. Think of it this way: Even if Toronto goes a meager 3-5 during its eight-game schedule, Boston would have to go 6-2 AND win the head-to-head matchup to jump in front of the Raptors.

It means Boston has to come flying out of the gates without much of the rust that teams will undoubtedly exhibit. But if Boston plays to its potential, it can at least make the Raptors sweat a bit.

Before the season paused, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index favored the Celtics in 10 of their next 11 games. The only projected loss was a trip to Toronto. Playing on a neutral court could be a benefit to Boston considering their struggles north of the border in recent years.

Just how hard should Boston push for that No. 2 seed? That might ultimately hinge on the Celtics' preferred first-round matchup. If the Sixers linger in the No. 6 spot, the 3-6 matchup becomes a bit more of a challenge than a top seed might prefer in Round 1 because of Philadelphia’s talent and potential. Again, playing on a neutral site negates the usual homecourt advantage a 2 seed might enjoy in Round 2, so it might not be worth emptying the tank. It doesn’t matter who is the 2 seed if Boston and Toronto both win their first-round matchups and draw each other in Round 2.

Still, it’s something to keep an eye on.

If the Celtics struggle, it’s prudent to remember that they still have work to do to lock up the 3 seed. Miami enters the restart 2.5 games back of Boston, but three in the loss column due to an extra game played. Say the Celtics go 4-4, Miami would have to go 7-1 to leapfrog based on the extra loss. Yet again, a head-to-head matchup looms big in that quest.

The motivation for the Heat in any pursuit of the 3 seed would be avoiding a team like Philly if they were to shimmy up to No. 5. Only two games separate the 4-6 spots with the Heat, 76ers, and Pacers.

One Miami writer parsed strength of schedule by looking at how teams fared against only the 22 teams competing in Orlando. Toronto ended up with the second most difficult schedule, behind only Denver. Miami had the fourth-hardest schedule.

Boston slotted 18th on that list of toughest schedules.

That we’re even contemplating how the standings might shake out is the best sign of all that basketball is truly back. It won’t be the same and it’s impossible to know how teams will respond in such a unique environment but it’s going to be fascinating to watch how the standings shake out.


bob
MY NOTE:  Personally, I'd like to watch Philly to see how they play.  They are an incredibly weak road team but this is a neutral setting, so who knows how they'll respond?  If the lack of hostile crowd let's them focus, they will be tough.  If it isn't the presence of a hostile crowd that makes them such a shitty road team but rather their need for a friendly crowd then they'll suck in this setting too. Miami will be tough, but we've seen Jimmy Butler try to take over and shoot his team out of the playoffs with low fg% shooting. The difference with this restart is that we won't get more "home" series with a higher seeding, but we will play weaker teams and that's a serious advantage.


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If we go 12-0 during our eight-game schedule, we control our own destiny. That way we don't have to depend on the record of any other team.

Mannix has Philly taking the East. I disaree with him but he thinks he is right. There are many out there picking the Celtics. I love my team, let's see what comes of these first eight games.

He is ans always has been in love with Ben Simmons. Let's just see how good he comes back.. His coach has said he is not completely ready but will play??? This kid has a bad back, if this continues through his career, he has a problem. Their locker room was a horror show before everything hit the fan. I am of the wait and section state of mind there.

I wonder if there isn't some way to at least partially simulate the home/away dynamic?? It should be easy to train an AI system to watch a game and generate crowd noise accurately.

Shamrock1000 wrote:I wonder if there isn't some way to at least partially simulate the home/away dynamic?? It should be easy to train an AI system to watch a game and generate crowd noise accurately.

Another possibility is an app. To get the app, fans would need to declare "their team" 3ven before games start. In a game, cyber tickets would be awarded to duplicate realistic crowd populations - e.g. 89.5% home team fans, 9.5% away team fans, 1% other. Those fans could click a cheer or boo button in real time, and the sum of cheers and boos converted to proportional realistic crowd noise.

They did it in a soccer game that was shown on television news yesterday, so there has to be a way. Now if we could get Mike and Tommy's voice dubbed over that ESPN crew we would be all set. I wonder if there will be any radio coverage, aka Sean Grande/Max??? Or does ESPN have it all locked down. With the games they will be playing, there are going to be many non basketball people that it is going to be easier to shut the voice off and just watch the game

RosalieTCeltics wrote:They did it in a soccer game that was shown on television news yesterday, so there has to be a way.  Now if we could get Mike and Tommy's voice dubbed over that ESPN crew we would be all set.  I wonder if there will be any radio coverage, aka Sean Grande/Max???  Or does ESPN have it all locked down.  With the games they will be playing, there are going to be many non basketball people that it is going to be easier to shut the voice off and just watch the game

Excellent points - would be great to be able to tune into home team radio coverages. Of course Tommy covers the games from the comfort of home - he is getting on in years and we need to keep him safe from Covid-19.

That is great......Mike. And.............Scal, I don’t know about him!!!!!

usually the bench is shortened for the playoffs, but under the circumstances, I think Brad will utilize those he feels will help in certain situations. I do see them getting huge minutes, but they will be used. At the end of the games before shutdown, Langford was coming off the bench early. I wonder if he will take a seat behind Wanamaker and Kanter. As usual, Marcus will be the first off the bench unless he is put in the starting line up and Hayward sits, which I doubt very much

Rosalie, Yes I am in Sarasota and sweltering when outdoors, but staying healthy. What happened to Scal? He's never on Sirius XM anymore, and like Wally Pipp, he may never get back into the lineup. His replacements are so much better.

I see him now and again on NBC/sports when he is reporting on the Celtics. They have a new show on Thursday nights so he is on that too. Maybe he is doing just Celtic stuff??  Tommy will not be involved in these games in the bubble. Tom is getting pretty up there in age, I see him sitting a lot of games out next year if not retiring. Maybe guest appearances here and there. Even Mike, he is about my age or a year or so younger.  He will run out of steam sooner or later.  

My biggest fear is that Draper steps into one of those jobs. It will really be lousy. But he has wormed his way on that channel and is on some nights reporting, so it is inevitable that he will get a job.  I really hope the Celtics think long and hard before handing him the mike