Is There A Lottery Pick In Our Future?

Portland beat the Nets and Memphis beat Milwaukee (no Giannis, and the head coach of Memphis used to be an assistant coach of Milwaukee so...). Portland and Memphis will play tomorrow, Saturday.

If Portland wins they are in the playoff and Memphis is out, which means Memphis will be in the lottery and we own their pick.

If Memphis wins Saturday they will be tied with Portland and the two teams will go again on Sunday for the tiebreaker.

Portland needs a split, Memphis needs a two-game sweep.


bob


.

Does a loss by Memphis count as a regular season loss?

Hi,
My bet is that we'd get #14 out of Memphis.
What I have no clue about is what Danny is going to do with 3 first rounders this year: keep them or do wheeling-dealing?

AK

I think Portland will get the final Playoff spot. We likely will have the 14th pick and I would prefer to have it this year.

We will probably lose a couple of guys to free agency. There will be one or two open roster spots.

I would draft a PF and a PG. The Celtics have 4 picks so he should be able to mover around the draft board.

Wanamaker will probably go and Enes Kanter. Maybe Theis. Does Daniel have an option or do we have him under contract for another year?

I'm not in favor of adding more draft picks to a roster already loaded with players whose future is at best, down the road away. I'll start to think dynasty if the time should ever come that we have a couple of rings in a row. Right now I hope Danny goes all in to put a team on the floor within the next 2 years or so that will be the preseason favorite to win it all. As of this moment 3 of the 5 top contenders this year are expected to  be the Celtics, Lakers and Clippers - and all of them will be relying on recently signed allstar free agents. And of course Toronto won it last year behind free agent Leonard. The way that free agency can change a teams prospect for the future so quickly is quite evident.

 swish

worcester wrote:Wanamaker will probably go and Enes Kanter. Maybe Theis. Does Daniel have an option or do we have him under contract for another year?

Celts have a QO on Brad.  So that would give them the leverage to match any offer.  How much they are willing to spend?  Theis is locked in for one more year.   Kanter has a player option.  VP is also locked in for one more year. Green has a non guaranteed contract for next year.   And we have our two 2 way guys.  Celts have $1.54 million qualifying offers on both of them.   I think they have a QO ON Semi as well.

$1.75 million team option on Semi.

Thanks dboss.

worcester wrote:Wanamaker will probably go and Enes Kanter. Maybe Theis. Does Daniel have an option or do we have him under contract for another year?

Hi,
It's team option for $5M for Theis for '20-'21. I'd keep him.
Kanter has player's option for '20-'21
Wanamaker is a FA.

AK

Good news on Theis. I'd like us to keep Wanny.

How old is Wannamaker? I assume 30? He spent years overseas so I assume he will go for the money wherever he can get it. His last/only decent contract? Maybe Danny will make the effort to keep him, I wonder? Kanter is a toss up, if he wants more playing time he will opt out if the money is somewhere else. If he is content, he will stay

Memphis just lost, so they are #14 in the loss column. They are in the lottery, and we get their pick if it falls out of 1 to 6.

worcester wrote:Memphis just lost, so they are #14 in the loss column. They are in the lottery, and we get their pick if it falls out of 1 to 6.

Boston will get the pick from Memphis even if it moves up to the top 4.
The pick is unprotected.

tjmakz wrote:

worcester wrote:Memphis just lost, so they are #14 in the loss column. They are in the lottery, and we get their pick if it falls out of 1 to 6.

Boston will get the pick from Memphis even if it moves up to the top 4.
The pick is unprotected.

TJ,

This is incorrect.

The pick is TOP 4 protected this year, it is unprotected next year if it doesn't convey this year.

The way the lottery works is that you can jump up to the top 3 or you are where you are.  So, Memphis is either 14th or #1, 2 or 3.  If they jump up they get the pick and we get a wholly unprotected pick in 2021.

The Celtics have a 2.4% chance of getting to the top 3.  There is, therefore, a 97.6% chance the pick conveys this year @ 14.


bob


.

The pick is top 6 protected this year.

https://sports.yahoo.com/odds-celtics-grizzlies-pick-nba-214330461.html

The Celtics own the Grizzlies' 2020 first-round draft pick, but it's protected for selections one through six. Therefore, if the Grizzlies get lucky and jump into the top four in the lottery, they will keep their pick in 2020 and instead send the team's 2021 first-rounder to Boston unprotected. If the Grizzlies don't vault into the top four, they will have the No. 14 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft and that selection will go to the C's.

Here are the Grizzlies' lottery odds:

--There's a 97.6 percent chance Memphis doesn't leap into the top four and sends the No. 14 overall pick to Boston.
--There's a 2.4 percent chance Memphis jumps into the top four and sends an unprotected 2021 first-round pick to Boston.

The draft lottery is scheduled for Aug. 20.

The ideal scenario for the Celtics probably is getting the Grizzlies' 2021 first-round pick unprotected.

It might be useful to remember how we got here.

In January 2015 there was a 3-team deal with NOP and Memphis.  Boston sent Jeff Green to Memphis and received Tayshaun Prince, Austin Rivers and this Memphis draft pick.

3 days later Rivers was traded to the Clips in a 3-team deal with Phoenix for Chris Douglas-Roberts, Shavlik Randolph and a 2017 2nd round pick that turned into the star-crossed Jabari Bird.

5 weeks later Prince was traded to Detroit for Luigi Datome and Jonas Jerebko.

So, in the end, we gave inconsistent Jeff Green, a #5 pick who has been passed around more than a party girl, for the #14 pick this year.  The other players are inconsequential.

If you were to look at Jeff Green's career and redrafted him using 20/20 hindsight he probably would have been a mid-1st rounder, but when you consider he was THE key piece of the Ray Allen trade, and the Ray Allen trade convinced KG to reopen trade talks with Boston, Jeff Green's disappointment of a career makes the Allen trade another Trader Danny heist.


bob


.

I liked Jabari - too bad he was mentally ill. I also liked Jerebko. Is he still in the NBA? Just checked. No.

gyso wrote:The pick is top 6 protected this year.

https://sports.yahoo.com/odds-celtics-grizzlies-pick-nba-214330461.html

The Celtics own the Grizzlies' 2020 first-round draft pick, but it's protected for selections one through six. Therefore, if the Grizzlies get lucky and jump into the top four in the lottery, they will keep their pick in 2020 and instead send the team's 2021 first-rounder to Boston unprotected. If the Grizzlies don't vault into the top four, they will have the No. 14 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft and that selection will go to the C's.

Here are the Grizzlies' lottery odds:

--There's a 97.6 percent chance Memphis doesn't leap into the top four and sends the No. 14 overall pick to Boston.
--There's a 2.4 percent chance Memphis jumps into the top four and sends an unprotected 2021 first-round pick to Boston.

The draft lottery is scheduled for Aug. 20.

The ideal scenario for the Celtics probably is getting the Grizzlies' 2021 first-round pick unprotected.

Gydo,

I agree with everything but the conclusion.  Memphis almost made the WC playoffs this year without Jaren Jackson.  Imagine them next year with a top 3 pick and Ja Morant with another year of experience and Jackson back.  I cannot see them being worse and, therefore, the pick will be unprotected but worse than 14.


bob


.

I agree Bob. Memphis will probably be better next year.

https://www.nba.com/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

Under the revamped format, the NBA Draft Lottery will ensure that the team with the worst record will receive no worse than the fifth pick. Under the pre-2019 system, the team with the worst record would pick no lower than fourth.

Let's break that down.

Under the revamped format, the NBA Draft Lottery will ensure that the team with the worst record will receive no worse than the fifth pick.

The first four draft picks are available to be won and the worst team can be leap-frogged over and end up picking fifth.

Under the pre-2019 system, the team with the worst record would pick no lower than fourth

The first three draft picks are available to be won and the worst team can be leap-frogged over and end up picking fourth.

That is why the Grizzlies can win picks 1-4 or stay at pick 14, which then the Celtics get the pick.

Pick #14 two years in a row is pretty good GM'ing by Danny for giving up bupkis.

bobheckler wrote:

gyso wrote:The pick is top 6 protected this year.

https://sports.yahoo.com/odds-celtics-grizzlies-pick-nba-214330461.html

The Celtics own the Grizzlies' 2020 first-round draft pick, but it's protected for selections one through six. Therefore, if the Grizzlies get lucky and jump into the top four in the lottery, they will keep their pick in 2020 and instead send the team's 2021 first-rounder to Boston unprotected. If the Grizzlies don't vault into the top four, they will have the No. 14 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft and that selection will go to the C's.

Here are the Grizzlies' lottery odds:

--There's a 97.6 percent chance Memphis doesn't leap into the top four and sends the No. 14 overall pick to Boston.
--There's a 2.4 percent chance Memphis jumps into the top four and sends an unprotected 2021 first-round pick to Boston.

The draft lottery is scheduled for Aug. 20.

The ideal scenario for the Celtics probably is getting the Grizzlies' 2021 first-round pick unprotected.

Gydo,

I agree with everything but the conclusion.  Memphis almost made the WC playoffs this year without Jaren Jackson.  Imagine them next year with a top 3 pick and Ja Morant with another year of experience and Jackson back.  I cannot see them being worse and, therefore, the pick will be unprotected but worse than 14.


bob


.

Bob,

Probably true.  BTW, the last sentence was copied from the article.

If the odds hold true:
This year we can pick 14, 26 and 30.  Is that correct?

If the Grizzlies buck the odds and land in the lottery:
Then next year we get our pick (wherever that ends up, probably mid to high 20s again) and the unprotected Grizzlies pick (likewise in the mid to high 20s).

So yeah, I agree.  One #14 pick is arguably worth more than all the other four picks combined (26, 30, 25ish and 25ish).

It is difficult to put a numerical value on picks.

Here is one from the 2018 NBA draft

https://www.dangerc.art/post/2018-nba-draft-pick-value-card.

I hope Boston is willing to trade up if there is a guy available that can help us next year.

bobheckler wrote:

tjmakz wrote:

worcester wrote:Memphis just lost, so they are #14 in the loss column. They are in the lottery, and we get their pick if it falls out of 1 to 6.

Boston will get the pick from Memphis even if it moves up to the top 4.
The pick is unprotected.

TJ,

This is incorrect.

The pick is TOP 4 protected this year, it is unprotected next year if it doesn't convey this year.

The way the lottery works is that you can jump up to the top 3 or you are where you are.  So, Memphis is either 14th or #1, 2 or 3.  If they jump up they get the pick and we get a wholly unprotected pick in 2021.

The Celtics have a 2.4% chance of getting to the top 3.  There is, therefore, a 97.6% chance the pick conveys this year @ 14.


bob


.

I got mixed up thinking we are in the next year.
Yes, it is top 6 protected this year.
Most likely Boston will get the #14 pick this year.