Hot take: trade kemba now

Well, we’re all reeling after losing a third major free agent in two years and netting zero, zilch, nada, in return. Our competition in the East has gotten basically uniformly better, and our roster has taken a massive step back. Whereas before, there were two generations contributing to make the Celtics contenders NOW, the elder generation of veterans is down to one: Kemba Walker. Does anyone think using the trade and free agent exceptions available to the Celtics will help them contend in a top heavy east? I’d like to see the argument.

Assuming not, the Celtics should trade a recently injury prone Kemba Walker now, while he’s still got time on his contract and spring in his step. They should pursue a big (Clint Capela?) who fits better with the young guns’ timelines. Let Smart run the point, give the young bench players tons of time to improve, and free up cap space for a free agency move in the next year or two.

Does this shift our championship window back? Sure. But, frankly, that’s already happened, like it or not. Let’s not put ourselves in the position, a couple years from now, of wondering how Ainge could let Walker—coveted in his time—walk without getting anything in return. Let’s lean into the cards we’ve been dealt, and build a dynasty.

Convince me I’m wrong.

Well I think the most compelling argument would be that if you remove GH from the team (which is the reality now), that same team went to the ECF where they had the talent and could + should have won against the Heat. With another year of growth and maybe some emergence from someone in the young bench they could very well be the contenders we hope they are.

On the other hand 3 out of 4 lost ECFs. Kemba uncertainty with his knee. The fact that even if they went on to the finals they would have been heavily overmatched (at least the betting odds would have been against them). Also anyone we get with the MLE - does he move the needle enough?

What I am trying to say is - I see you point and find it very good. Just not sure if I agree with it or not

Vankisa wrote:Well I think the most compelling argument would be that if you remove GH from the team (which is the reality now), that same team went to the ECF where they had the talent and could + should have won against the Heat. With another year of growth and maybe some emergence from someone in the young bench they could very well be the contenders we hope they are.

On the other hand 3 out of 4 lost ECFs. Kemba uncertainty with his knee. The fact that even if they went on to the finals they would have been heavily overmatched (at least the betting odds would have been against them). Also anyone we get with the MLE - does he move the needle enough?

What I am trying to say is - I see you point and find it very good. Just not sure if I agree with it or not

Thanks for the reply!

You’re definitely that we came most of the way without Gordon. But that’s because the Bucks lost in a freakishly weird way and the Nets were no good.

I think we’re a good team, but I just don’t see us being competitive with the best of the league as constituted. (Our most experienced non-starter is Semi, and he’s never quite made the jump...)

That’s not such a bad thing! We’re incredibly young. Most of our roster is years from its prime. I say we double down on youth, fill roster needs, and enjoy watching these guys grow together without championship expectations making the stakes unreasonably high.

no one liked this when I originally said it. and once again a max value contract is going to be traded for pennies on the dollar.

https://thesportsdaily.com/2021/06/09/report-kemba-wants-out-of-boston-unhappy-with-alleged-trade-attempts-r1a1/

NESportsfan12 wrote:

Vankisa wrote:Well I think the most compelling argument would be that if you remove GH from the team (which is the reality now), that same team went to the ECF where they had the talent and could + should have won against the Heat. With another year of growth and maybe some emergence from someone in the young bench they could very well be the contenders we hope they are.

On the other hand 3 out of 4 lost ECFs. Kemba uncertainty with his knee. The fact that even if they went on to the finals they would have been heavily overmatched (at least the betting odds would have been against them). Also anyone we get with the MLE - does he move the needle enough?

What I am trying to say is - I see you point and find it very good. Just not sure if I agree with it or not  

Thanks for the reply!

You’re definitely that we came most of the way without Gordon. But that’s because the Bucks lost in a freakishly weird way and the Nets were no good.

I think we’re a good team, but I just don’t see us being competitive with the best of the league as constituted. (Our most experienced non-starter is Semi, and he’s never quite made the jump...)

That’s not such a bad thing! We’re incredibly young. Most of our roster is years from its prime. I say we double down on youth, fill roster needs, and enjoy watching these guys grow together without championship expectations making the stakes unreasonably high.

Couple of questions and an important item to ponder.
Question 1: Exactly what do you mean ‘double down on youth’
Question 2: While some of us may (and many of us may not) sit back and enjoy watching these guys grow together without championship expectations, what makes you think that our 2 stars are willing to toil through the beginning of their prime years without hopes of winning a chip?

Item to ponder: We have to keep in mind that if the 2 stars aren’t happy, contract or no, they’re going to leave. That could be as soon as 2-3 years from today.

KP for KW...that's my first stab at a solution.

Dear Infinite, Divine, and Timeless Holy Spirit, knowing that You are omnipotent. omniscient, and omnipresent,

Knowing that we are all part of Your great creation and knowing that Kemba's departure to the NY Knicks will bring great joy to both Knicks and Celtics fans alike,

I affirm that this is a better world as Divine Power and Intelligence brings this to pass, and I tender my respectful gratitude for this manifestation of Spirit.

I release this prayer into the Universe.

And so it is.

Regarding all talk of roster moves this summer and going into next season, we are NOT hard capped. We won't be unless we transact a triggering event, such as receiving a player in a sign-and-trade, use the BAE or use the larger taxpayer's MLE.

The hard cap shenanigans resets after every season.

NESportsfan12 wrote:no one liked this when I originally said it. and once again a max value contract is going to be traded for pennies on the dollar.

https://thesportsdaily.com/2021/06/09/report-kemba-wants-out-of-boston-unhappy-with-alleged-trade-attempts-r1a1/

NESportsfan12,

You should come back and be right more often. You can't have too many people being right.


Bob


.

Ktron wrote:

NESportsfan12 wrote:

Vankisa wrote:Well I think the most compelling argument would be that if you remove GH from the team (which is the reality now), that same team went to the ECF where they had the talent and could + should have won against the Heat. With another year of growth and maybe some emergence from someone in the young bench they could very well be the contenders we hope they are.

On the other hand 3 out of 4 lost ECFs. Kemba uncertainty with his knee. The fact that even if they went on to the finals they would have been heavily overmatched (at least the betting odds would have been against them). Also anyone we get with the MLE - does he move the needle enough?

What I am trying to say is - I see you point and find it very good. Just not sure if I agree with it or not  

Thanks for the reply!

You’re definitely that we came most of the way without Gordon. But that’s because the Bucks lost in a freakishly weird way and the Nets were no good.

I think we’re a good team, but I just don’t see us being competitive with the best of the league as constituted. (Our most experienced non-starter is Semi, and he’s never quite made the jump...)

That’s not such a bad thing! We’re incredibly young. Most of our roster is years from its prime. I say we double down on youth, fill roster needs, and enjoy watching these guys grow together without championship expectations making the stakes unreasonably high.

Couple of questions and an important item to ponder.
Question 1: Exactly what do you mean ‘double down on youth’
Question 2: While some of us may (and many of us may not) sit back and enjoy watching these guys grow together without championship expectations, what makes you think that our 2 stars are willing to toil through the beginning of their prime years without hopes of winning a chip?

Item to ponder: We have to keep in mind that if the 2 stars aren’t happy, contract or no, they’re going to leave. That could be as soon as 2-3 years from today.  

Question 1: well, at the time, I was hoping to get some young big (I'd long been a fan of Clint Capela). Now it's pretty clear that we'll be hard-pressed to get any significant assets in return.

Question 2: It's a fair question. They're both under contract for awhile and while both seem interested in winning, neither seems interested in joining a superteam. I think you have to get buy-in from them. That's a job for Danny Ainge Brad Stevens.

So yeah, I'm not entirely sure where you go from here. But letting Kemba limp around for an entire season and put up disappointing numbers didn't really help.

bobheckler wrote:

NESportsfan12 wrote:no one liked this when I originally said it. and once again a max value contract is going to be traded for pennies on the dollar.

https://thesportsdaily.com/2021/06/09/report-kemba-wants-out-of-boston-unhappy-with-alleged-trade-attempts-r1a1/

NESportsfan12,

You should come back and be right more often.  You can't have too many people being right.


Bob


.

Ha! I can come back more often, but being right is more of a broken clock kind of thing for me.

worcester wrote:KP for KW...that's my first stab at a solution.

Kristaps? He'd be great...if he weren't made of glass. I still think if this is on the table you probably roll the dice and hope.

dboss wrote:

worcester wrote:Dear Infinite, Divine, and Timeless Holy Spirit, knowing that You are omnipotent. omniscient, and omnipresent,

Knowing that we are all part of Your great creation and knowing that Kemba's departure to the NY Knicks will bring great joy to both Knicks and Celtics fans alike,

I affirm that this is a better world as Divine Power and Intelligence brings this to pass, and I tender my respectful gratitude for this manifestation of Spirit.

I release this prayer into the Universe.

And so it is.

With that prayer everything has got to work out

Amen. Here's a dream scenario not worth the gray matter it's printed on.

NYK get: Kemba, 3 1st rounders
BC get: Julius Randle and RJ Barrett

dboss wrote:ktron I want to weigh in on the question about Jayson and Jaylen wasted potential prime years.

The average age when a player enters his prime is 27 years old.

Jaylen is still almost 3  years from entering his prime and Tatum is 4+ years away.

The timeline for Boston to continue the process of building a championship level team anchored by them is still very much in play.

The Celtics remain well positioned although the next two years could be difficult.  The Celtics will eventually be looking to add that 3rd allstar level player.  That opportunity could present itself sooner if Boston is able to move KW now and they limit any new contracts for non-core level players to a maximum of 2 years.

This is exactly right in my view. Tatum and Brown spent their first years in the NBA gaining valuable playoff experience. Most young stars don't get that. Now they're both entering the early part of their prime and we have to find cheap veterans to build around and try to find a third player (either a distributing defensive guard who is durable or a four-five who can stretch the floor, defend, and rebound, IMO). Since we've already got Smart, I'd like to see a stretch big and give Smart the chance to run the offense. It might not happen next year (though it might), but these guys will be a force to be reckoned with if we can escape from under this bad contract.

And, look: don't get me wrong: Kemba is a great guy. I feel for him. He's exactly the right locker room presence for the team, and he is a good player when healthy. Hopefully now the front office knows to be careful with undersized guards nearing the end of their prime. Hopefully everyone can exit this relationship in a quick and mutually beneficial way.

dboss wrote:

gyso wrote:Regarding all talk of roster moves this summer and going into next season, we are NOT hard capped.  We won't be unless we transact a triggering event, such as receiving a player in a sign-and-trade, use the BAE or use the larger taxpayer's MLE.

The hard cap shenanigans resets after every season.

gyso

Thanks for the correction on that.  

If we used any of our remaining trade exceptions would that also trigger a hard cap?

The Knicks take on Kemba scenario is probably just another pipe dream.  If kemba wants out it would be great if his landing spot was there.  I would not mind seeing them (Knicks)  do a sign and trade with Alex Burks (FA) for Kemba.  I think we would have to part with a first round pick.  $73 million is a tidy sum.  

The three things that trigger a hard cap were listed above.  S&T, BAE and NTP MLE (Used on TT last season, that's why we were capped).  That's it, I did briefly look at Larry Coon to verify.  The rest of the exceptions are available for use without the hard cap penalty.

IMO, we will be taxpayers this season, so the Celtics will not be bringing in any players via S&T.  That's a hard stop sign for most fans to accept.  Many just blow right through it, as you just did for Burks.  LOL

This summer will show us and the players if the owners will spend for a contender.  The last two seasons were $h.it shows for sure, so how the owners didn't spend during that time is understandable to some and not to be much of a predictor going forward.

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2021/06/kemba-walker-trade-scenarios-for-celtics-examining-nine-realistic-deals-for-boston-to-consider.html



Kemba Walker trade scenarios for Celtics: Examining nine realistic deals for Boston to consider



Updated 11:31 AM; Today 11:31 AM





Boston Celtics guard Kemba Walker ( during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Tuesday, May 11, 2021, in Boston.AP


By Brian Robb | brobb@masslive.com




The Celtics are going to consider some big changes to their roster this offseason and one place it makes sense to look is with point guard Kemba Walker. The 31-year-old veteran has battled constant knee issues during his last two seasons in Boston and his hefty salary limits Boston’s spending options to improve for the next two years.

MassLive reported last week that league sources expect Boston to explore moving the former All-Star in order to create more payroll flexibility and find a better fit next to the team’s All-Stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

However, trading Walker will not be a slam dunk due to his contract and injury situation. He is currently projected to be the 12th highest-paid player in the NBA next season, earning $36 million in 2021-22 and $37.6 million in 2022-23 (player option). Walker’s camp also negotiated a 15 percent trade kicker into his original deal so the Celtics would be on the hook to pay out an additional $3.3 million dollars to Walker as a part of any deal (unless Walker agreed to waive the trade kicker to help facilitate a deal). Walker’s trade bonus would also factor into the cap math of dealing him since it would require the Celtics to take back more salary (around $3 million) in any trade.

Due to these factors, finding a deal involving Walker that makes sense for Boston and a trade partner in both the long and short term is going to be a big challenge for Brad Stevens, and there’s no guarantee a good match is found. However, there are a few paths Boston’s front office should be looking at if they are motivated to get a deal done. Let’s examine some of these hypothetical trade partners and possible proposals.


REBUILDING TEAMS AS POTENTIAL TRADE PARTNERS

Walker still has enough in the tank to help a good team. However, most playoff teams aren’t going to want to pay Walker $36 million to be a third or fourth option, particularly with his injury concerns. That fact should limit most of Boston’s potential trade partners to asset collecting teams at the bottom of the NBA standings. Boston gets some salary relief and/or easily movable players and a trade partner gets draft picks and/or young players for helping out. A few teams to monitor on this front:


Houston Rockets

Proposal: Kemba Walker and a protected first-round pick for Eric Gordon, DJ Augustin and Avery Bradley

Purpose: Long-term cap relief, movable contracts

Houston already has one of the worst contracts in the NBA at the point guard spot in John Wall so adding another wouldn’t make a ton of sense. However, the Rockets should be in asset collection mode here and landing a good first-round pick to move off some of their own overpriced, albeit less expensive deals (Gordon, Augustin) could be seen as a win-win for them. The problem for Boston is that Gordon is injury prone and his size (6-foot-4), age (32) and defense shouldn’t help much in the short term when it comes to getting the Celtics back contending. This trade would reduce Boston’s payroll but doesn’t necessarily build a better supporting cast. Augustin’s contract is also partially guaranteed for 2022-23 so this transaction would free up about $17 million in cap space for next summer.

Likelihood? Low due to Wall’s contract.


Orlando Magic

Proposal: Kemba Walker and the No. 16 pick for Gary Harris and Terrence Ross

Purpose: Adding useful role players, reducing payroll

One of the more appealing possibilities on this list from Boston’s perspective, in my opinion. The team would get a pair of useful players in Harris and Ross for next season on the wing, reducing the need to pay big money to Evan Fournier over a long-term deal. Additionally, Harris is on a $20 million expiring contract so Boston would be set up to have tremendous cap flexibility next summer if they avoid long-term deals this summer. Ross is a useful spot-up shooter with a couple years left on his deal, so he could either be kept or moved.

The problem here for the Celtics will be getting the Magic to bite. They have a pair of young point guards already in Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony so they simply may be uninterested in having Walker taking some of those minutes while they try to rebuild his value (a buyout could be possible here too). A mid-first round may not be enough for Orlando to make that sacrifice for adding so much extra payroll for the next two years so the Celtics may have to sweeten the deal here with another draft pick or a young player with promise (Aaron Nesmith?). Finding an appealing enough package for Orlando will be a challenge but there is a deal to be made here if the Celtics find the right mix of assets to satisfy the Magic.

Likelihood? Dependent on Orlando’s willingness to sacrifice cap room for draft assets


Oklahoma City Thunder

Proposal: Kemba Walker and the No. 16 pick for Al Horford

Purpose: Reducing salary, adding a stretch option

There is no other team that’s done better in the asset collection game than the Oklahoma City Thunder in the last two seasons. They’ve acquired an incredibly long list of future draft picks while serving as a dumping ground for bad contracts and have even rebuilt the value of some veteran players (Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder) for more assets after stops in OKC.

The Thunder will eventually make a push toward competing, but that won’t happen until another year or two down the road. For now though, they have a high-priced former Celtic on the roster in Al Horford who would love to return to Boston, according to league sources. Moving a first-round pick with Walker to bring back Horford to Boston would potentially help on a couple of fronts. First, it would significantly reduce the payroll for the next two years as Horford only makes $27 million next season and his 2022-23 salary is only partially guaranteed ($14.5 million). Horford also would fit a big hole as a stretch big in the frontcourt in the interim, although it remains unclear how much he has left in the tank after flaming out in Philadelphia.

Once again, this proposal will come down to a price point on draft compensation. Will Horford have other suitors around the league? Is moving one injury-prone veteran for another a good idea when it costs a draft pick to do so? Realistically, this is an option will be on the table though if Boston is willing to meet Sam Presti’s price.

Likelihood? Very possible but dependent on Horford’s market and Boston’s willingness to add more assets


Detroit Pistons

Proposal: Kemba Walker and two first-round picks (2021, 2023) for Cory Joseph, Mason Plumlee, Rodney MacGruder and Jahlil Okafor

Purpose: Cap relief and movable contracts

One final rebuilding team to consider. Same logic as the others except this time, it costs Boston an extra first round pick since they get massive cap relief in 2022 with this proposed swap. Detroit would be sacrificing a ton of future cap space in 2022 to take Walker’s deal so there’s no guarantee they would be interested in limiting their future offseason maneuvers. However, Boston could try to sell Walker as a mentor to the team’s young talent and point guard of the future in Killian Hayes. However, the odds are here the Pistons decline to take on a big-money star that will likely be looking for a buyout (see: Blake Griffin) for the second straight season.

Likelihood? Dependent on Detroit’s willingness to sacrifice cap room for draft assets


BAD CONTRACT FOR BAD CONTRACT?


Dallas Mavericks

Proposal: Kemba Walker for Kristaps Porzingis

The money works here for a straight-up swap. Porzingis at age 26 is much younger than Walker and would align with the timetables of Tatum/Brown better on paper. However, this is a deal to stay away from for the Celtics since Porzingis does not turn this roster into a contender due to his drop-off in play in Dallas, particularly on the defensive end of the floor. The big man would also add an extra year of money onto Boston’s payroll beyond when Walker’s deal expires in 2023, essentially blocking Boston from having any meaningful cap room for another year with their young core. If building a long-term contender around Tatum and Brown is the goal, adding Porzingis to the roster would be a step in the wrong direction if he isn’t a viable third option. His play this past season suggests he’s not.

Likelihood? Not happening


Cleveland Cavaliers

Proposal: Kemba Walker for Kevin Love

Love makes only $60 million total over the next two years, about $13 million less than Walker and that’s where the positives end in this deal for Boston. Walker is the more productive player at this stage of his career as Love has been riddled with injuries since 2018. Cleveland also has a fully stocked backcourt already with Colin Sexton and Darius Garland, which probably makes this a no for both sides.

Likelihood? Very low


New Orleans Pelicans

Proposal: Kemba Walker and a future protected first-round pick for Eric Bledsoe and Steven Adams

An uninspiring deal for both sides. The Celtics get another overpaid big who can’t shoot and a guy in Bledsoe who has always struggled under the postseason spotlight. However, Bledsoe’s deal is only partially guaranteed ($3.4 million) for 2022-23 so this would be a path to some cap relief for Boston (albeit at the price of a draft pick). The Pelicans would simply be looking to land a draft asset here and hope Walker stays healthy as a pick-and-roll partner with Zion Williamson. However, the Pelicans may prefer the flexibility of more cap space next summer rather than an additional draft pick.

Likelihood? Very low


PLAYOFF TEAMS THAT COULD CONSIDER UPGRADE?


Los Angeles Clippers

Proposal: Kemba Walker and a first-round pick for Luke Kennard and Patrick Beverley

Purpose: Cap relief for 2022 and more movable contracts

There are a few teams in the NBA with payroll flexibility, the need for an upgrade at point guard and desperation to improve. The Clippers may be on that list if they ended up as a second-round out for the second straight season. With no draft assets or cap space to improve, they could be willing to take a talent upgrade on an overpriced contract in Walker for a couple of overpaid role players. Steve Ballmer has shown a willingness to pay a monster tax bill before so the Celtics would benefit from that here to put a 20-point scorer next to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The problem for Boston? The Clippers could find less pricy paths in trades to achieving the same goal. A disappointing exit to the playoffs is the only way this becomes a feasible plan for Boston.

Likelihood? Depends on how the Clippers finish their season.


New York Knicks

Proposal: Kemba Walker and a first-round pick for Norvel Pelle (i.e. filler)

Purpose: Cap relief for the long term

The Knicks were reportedly in the running for Walker when he was a free agent in 2019. Two years later, they are a team on the rise in the Eastern Conference and could have upwards of $50 million in salary-cap space this summer. Would they want to use it on Walker? Surely not for his current salary. However, is it possible the Celtics could incentive them to take on that money with draft picks or other young players? It’s a call Boston should make but the read here is that it wouldn’t go anywhere. New York has plenty of talent in the backcourt already with Derrick Rose and an emerging Immanuel Quickley. Clogging up cap space and opportunity for two years with Walker is probably not worth it for the franchise unless Boston is willing to hand over a lot of sweeteners (picks and young players) their way. Hard to envision Brad Stevens does that with a divisional rival, even if it would create a massive trade exception for Boston.

Likelihood? Knicks say no


FINAL THOUGHTS

There are a couple of feasible scenarios on this list (OKC, Orlando) but there are serious deterrents for both sides in the vast majority of these potential swaps. For that reason, it’s far from a sure thing the Celtics make a move with Kemba Walker this offseason, even if they are motivated to. Running it back with Walker and making some other tweaks to the roster may end up being preferable to giving up serious draft capital and/or young players to move Walker’s deal. Brad Stevens will need to weigh the risk and reward of those paths as he tries to map out Boston’s path back towards contention this offseason.


Bob


.

Author is overly negative on Kp KW trade.

dboss wrote:ktron I want to weigh in on the question about Jayson and Jaylen wasted potential prime years.

The average age when a player enters his prime is 27 years old.

Jaylen is still almost 3  years from entering his prime and Tatum is 4+ years away.

The timeline for Boston to continue the process of building a championship level team anchored by them is still very much in play.

The Celtics remain well positioned although the next two years could be difficult.  The Celtics will eventually be looking to add that 3rd allstar level player.  That opportunity could present itself sooner if Boston is able to move KW now and they limit any new contracts for non-core level players to a maximum of 2 years.

Dboss we can assume that the timeline for Boston to continue the process of building a championship level team anchored by them is still very much in play but that is predicated on some clever, smart maneuvering by our front office post haste. Like yesterday. These stars today are not going to stick around for any shenanigans by the front office. Contract or not they will force their way out so I don’t see the window being as open as the length of their contracts. Lets keep our fingers, toes and eyes crossed that Brad and Co. Work smart and with a quickness.

Down here in Dallas folks are saying that KP thinks he’s a 3 and is reluctant to play in the middle.