Haywood sign and trade done

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Post by kdp59 Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:25 am

a quick list or players who fall under that TPE

note: I am only listing players who have been rumored be available or have been traded on salary dumps and am not saying we should trade for any of them. Also  we appear to be about $26M UNDER the tax line and I believe the owners want to stay there.

enjoy!


Bigs:

A. Horford (Okl)- $27.5M
M. Turner (Ind)- $18M
C. Capela (Atl)- $16M

A. Gordon (Orl)- $18M
L. Nance (Clev)- $11.7M

Wings:

D. DeRozen (SA)- $27.7M
T. Ariza (Okl)-  $12.8M
D. Green (Okl)-  $15.3M
T. Snell (Atl)-  $12M
V. Oladipo (Ind)- $21M
E. Gordon (Hou)- $16.8M

Ballhandlers:

T. Rozier ( Char)- $18.9M
E. Bledsoe (NO)- $16.8M
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Post by bobheckler Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:14 am

This deal isn't "in the books" until we know what Danny does with the TPE.  Having said that we can still do a quick review of where we are right now.  (Looking back after writing this maybe it wasn't such a "quick" review)

The offer on the table from Indy was, allegedly, Turner + a rotation player + a 1st round pick.  I say "allegedly" because both sides have an interest in making themselves look like it wasn't their fault it didn't go through.  The rotation player most mentioned was Doug McDermott.  Was this a deal Danny should have taken?


The Indy Offer

Going from back to front we'll start with the pick.  Without a big trade any Indy pick is likely to be in the 18-22 range.  They're good enough to make the playoffs in the East but not good enough to be in the top 3 or 4.  A #18 pick can get you a good player but probably not much better than that.  It can happen, of course, Avery Bradley was a #19 pick, but if they were all that obvious they would be a lottery pick.  So, ok but not awesome.  

I am not a McBuckets fan and never have been.  I have always thought he was too slow, too much of a tweener, too one-dimensional to make it in the NBA.  He's a good catch-and-shoot from 3 player and a good frito shooter, I'll give him that, but he's a lead-footed liability on defense.  He's the 3 without the D.  Prove me wrong.  The rumors were that Danny wanted TJ Warren or Oladipo and that wasn't flying in Pacerland.  Well, if that's so, then it wasn't "a rotation player" it was for a lesser rotation player.  $7.33M worth of expiring contract to a useless player going to a team that was over the salary cap.  Not for me, thank you very much.

Which leaves us with Myles Turner, clearly the centerpiece of this offer.  Zach Lowe reported Danny asked around about Turner's trade value.  Doesn't sound like something someone would do with a player he coveted, does it?  Should he covet Turner?  Turner is another 3-and-D player, except that he's a 5.  His 3pt fg% is a little above Theis', and he takes more 3pt fgas than Theis, but below Marcus Smart's.  Do we really need/want a slightly better (as in 34.4% vs 33.3%) big who launches even more from outside?  I don't.  The other strength of Turner's is his rim protection.  That is, admittedly, why he is in the league and he's pretty good, better than Theis.  But, once again, is that what we need?  Theis isn't bad, just not as good as Turner, but Robert Williams is as good as Turner at this.  Do we need another Time Lord?  I say no.  I say we need to give RWill more minutes.  So, what do we need?  With the departure of Enes Kanter we needed beef.  Theis is not a big center, Williams is a toothpick too and Turner wasn't going to be able to handle Embiid etal.  So Turner isn't really what we want and need and if his trade value around the league is weak then that's a bad deal.

Another point to be made here is this:  Because this deal fell apart and Gordon left without players coming here our salary dropped down to where we had the full MLE and not just the mini MLE.  That extra money was used to sign Tristan Thompson, who is what we want/need.  He's beef.  His offense is as limited as Kanter's, it's all around the basket.  His rebounding is elite, as is Kanter's, but his defense is lightyears ahead of Kanter's (not saying anything given that Kanter's pnr and low post defense is the worst I've seen in a big in a very, very long time...maybe ever).

So, in the interim, this came down to a player we didn't need (and couldn't get good trade value in from other GMs) + an expiring contract attached to a player that will be a veteran's minimum next year (if that) and a mediocre pick.  Not much value for us here, in my opinion, and we'd have player contracts we don't want weighing us down.  Turner's contract is $18M/year for 3 more years, a total of $54M.  We got Tristan Thompson for $9.5M/year for 2 years, a total of $19M.  Thompson, the player I'd rather have, is half the money year-by-year and a smaller total contract outstanding.  Cheaper, more contract flexibility, smaller salary cap impact, better trade value, much better rebounder.  Put simply, a deal that swapped out Turner for Thompson would have been the better deal for us, so what does that say about Turner and Indy's deal when the other two components were a poison pill and a mediocrity?


The Charlotte Deal

We still lose Gordon, that was a given no matter where he went, but what did we get in return?  We got a $28M TPE.  That is, potentially, a massive win by Danny.

kdp provided a list of player that could fit into this TPE, I won't go over that list, but there is one that wasn't included that may be doable and that makes sense, and that player is Buddy Hield.  We know Buddy wants out of Sacto.  That's key.  It's all very fine and good to come up with some fantasy basketball wish list but the other team has to want to do the deal.  He is under contract for the next 4 years.  He makes $24.4M this season and then declines the next 3 years until he's only making $18.6M.  That is a very favorable team-friendly contract.  Sacramento is a small-market team and money is always an issue with them.  


Conclusion

Hard to draw one until we see who Danny gets with the TPE, but he gained flexibility by not having to take players and contracts he doesn't want and would look to flip.  He buys time putting together a trade that works and that doesn't have to get done before training camp starts or even before this year's trade deadline.  With a 2nd straight year of lower league revenues, the season is only 72 games this year, the impetus for teams to shed salary might be even greater this summer.  He can use the TPE on multiple good players ($28M is a lot of money.  $14M players are pretty decent players and Danny can get two of them.  Two veterans, he says as he licks his chops...) or he could get lucky and catch a team in a bind and get a potential future All-Star.  Buddy Hield, for example, could start on just about any NBA team.  He would, at the minimum, be a candidate for 6th Man if he came off the bench.  That would be a nice haul for a player who was going to leave anyway because MJ was willing to throw crazy money at him.  Whether this was just Fool's Luck-O-the-Irish or Cool Hand Danny not panicking and grabbing at some boat anchors thrown to him by Indy, which they claimed to be life preservers, I don't know but all could be very well that ends well.  


Bob


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Post by worcester Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:32 am

I have an even better idea for using the TPE. When the Nets get tired of Kyrie's disruptive dramas, we could use the TPE to sign him!

And the heads started exploding all across the Celtics universe...
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Post by bobheckler Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:35 am

worcester wrote:I have an even better idea for using the TPE. When the Nets get tired of Kyrie's disruptive dramas, we could use the TPE to sign him!

And the heads started exploding all across the Celtics universe...


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Bob


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Post by worcester Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:41 am

A perfect meme Bob, and of course I was joking. Otherwise I should be institutionalized. BTW, you made a very cogent argument about why Danny did the right thing and how this could all work out for us.
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Post by bobheckler Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:09 pm

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2020/11/gordon-hayward-trade-who-boston-celtics-can-target-what-a-traded-player-exception-is-how-to-use-it.html



Gordon Hayward trade: Who Boston Celtics can target, what a traded player exception is, & how to use it


Updated 11:00 AM; Today 7:00 AM


By John Karalis | JKaralis@masslive.com



The Boston Celtics were able to get something for Gordon Hayward after all. After all the consternation about Danny Ainge missing out on whatever the Indiana Pacers offered, he was able to pivot and get a valuable asset from the Charlotte Hornets.

The $28.5 million traded player exception (TPE) Boston received in exchange for a pair of second round picks is the largest TPE in NBA history. It can be quite valuable for the Celtics, even, possibly, more valuable than what the Pacers were offering.

Here’s a full breakdown on what it is, how Boston can use it, and who they might target.


What is the TPE?

A traded player exception is basically a coupon a team receives in exchange for a player traded to a team that can absorb him into cap space or an exception.

In the NBA, salaries have to match in order for a trade to work. When a team, like Charlotte, can sign a player outright but decides to trade for him without sending players back, the sending team gets a TPE instead. It’s a way to match salaries but, basically, do it later.

So Boston gets a sort of coupon in the amount of Gordon Hayward’s first year salary, and they can use it to match salary in a trade or trades later on.


Why would Charlotte do that?

Because they got two second round picks for it, and those can be valuable either as cheap players to fill out a roster or as sweeteners for trades down the road.


How can Boston use it?

The fine print on this coupon reads “can’t be combined with any other assets.” They can split it up and trade for more than one player or in trades with more than one team. They can make a trade tomorrow with one team and in March with another. Some key rules:

It can’t be combined with anything else to increase its value. They can’t add a player making $5 million, or the $5 million TPE created by the Enes Kanter deal, to a trade and make it worth $33.5 million. This TPE stands alone.

It can’t be used past its expiration date. Typically it’s one year but because of the weird timing of this season, it will expire sometime before the next season starts.

It can’t be used to sign a free agent. It’s not money to spend. Maybe you can think of it as a sort of gift card instead, and it can only be used in the “trade store.” However, if there is a free agent they wanted to sign, they could probably easily negotiate a sign-and-trade with his original team and that team would create a TPE of its own.


Who can Boston get with it?

Step one: you can go here ( https://hoopshype.com/salaries/players/ ) and scroll down to D’Angelo Russell at 31 to start looking at who actually fits into the exception. Everyone above him is out (sorry, Bradley Beal fans).

From there, we can eliminate some obvious names. Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t getting traded into an exception. Also keep in mind that because Boston is signing Tristan Thompson to a full mid-level exception, they’ll be hard-capped at about $139 million, so using the full $28.5 million TPE might not be possible unless they move some other players.

Step two: Find realistic scenarios

I’m going to break this into a couple of tiers. The first is of players on whom the entire TPE would be used and the second is mostly guys who would take a piece of it.


Tier 1:

Otto Porter, $28,489,239
Nikola Vucevic, $26,000,000
Buddy Hield, $24,931,817
Harrison Barnes, $22,215,909
Gary Harris, $19,160,714

Personally, I think Boston should be targeting wings. Vucevic is on this list because he’s an intriguing stretch-5 option with a declining contract, but he’s still super-expensive and I’d be wary of that move.

Porter is 27 years-old and a career 40.4% shooter from 3. He’s overpaid in Chicago but it’s an expiring contract and trading for him brings his Bird rights in, so Boston can either sign him to a more reasonable deal next season, or trade him at the deadline. Hield and Barnes are candidates to move in Sacramento, but Hield is just starting a big five-year extension and that might be too much for Boston.

Barnes is a tremendous shooter who can fit Boston’s multi-positional style. He is also on a declining contract, Making $20.3 million next season and $18.3 the following season. Those are very tradeable numbers should Boston continue to retool.

Harris is an intriguing “change of scenery” guy who has one more season on his deal with the Denver Nuggets. Injuries have cost him opportunities and the team has done well without him. Their offseason moves have hard-capped them so a salary-clearing trade to create a TPE and fill his spot over the summer when the hard cap is gone makes sense. Boston would hope some good health and a new team could make him the 40% shooter that he was two years ago.


Tier 2:

Aaron Gordon, $18,136,364
Evan Fournier, $17,150,000
JJ Redick, $13,013,700
Kelly Olynyk, $13,598,243
Al-Farouq Aminu, $9,720,900
George Hill, $9,590,602
PJ Tucker, $7,969,537

If I’m Danny Ainge, I’m basically calling the Chicago Bulls and Orlando Magic and asking who on their roster is available in this situation. Gordon could do very well with the Celtics if he just plays within himself and a system that doesn’t expect too much from him.

Personally, I’d rather get Fournier if possible. He’s expiring this season and could provide immediate help. He’s 28 years-old and a killer shooter from deep, so Orlando could just be looking to dump him rather than pay him next season. The real questions with a Fournier trade are whether Orlando would ask for too much in return, and would Boston want to pay him moving forward.

There is no doubt in my mind that New Orleans would love to get an asset back for Redick. Boston can certainly use a dependable shooter like him off the bench.

Miami probably wouldn’t mind clearing cap space in an Olynyk trade if Boston was hoping to try out his floor-spacing ability one more time.

Aminu is a very low probability guy but if he’s healthy, can be a strong, versatile defensive wing. If he is able to recapture any of his Portland shooting magic, he’d be a good bench option.

Hill would be a very capable backup to Kemba Walker and he could step in and run the show if Walker’s knee became an issue. His $10 million salary next season is not guaranteed, but $10 million could make him a valuable trade chip next summer.

Tucker would make the frontcourt a bit more crowded, but there’s no harm in calling the financially strapped Houston Rockets and seeing if you can get a steal.

It’s important to note that guys in this tier are all also very tradeable, and could be valuable to the Celtics in future salary-matching scenarios. Right now, Marcus Smart is the only mid-sized contract on the team, which means he’d have to be included in most trade scenarios for a superstar. Getting players who are also around his contract size could help Boston keep him should a bigger trade materialize down the road.

However the Celtics play this, they will have some options. Some of these names make more sense than others, and some may not end up being available at all, but these are the types of players in play for Boston with the TPE.

Danny Ainge did get something in exchange for Gordon Hayward, and if he can make the right moves, his haul through the TPE could end up becoming much better than anything the Indiana Pacers had to offer.


Bob
MY NOTE:  I don't see Buddy Hield's extension as a negative, I see it as a positive.  He's talented, and locking him into a long-term contract that has years to run is a good thing.  The one big knock on Buddy is his trade request.  It's one thing to go quietly to your GM and ask that he start making inquiries, it's another thing to make it obvious he's disgruntled and it is obvious.  Another knock on Buddy is his defense.  His defensive rating is atrocious.  In the end a certain minimum amount of athleticism, and size, is needed in the NBA or you have to be a spectacular talent (see Young, Trae).


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Post by dboss Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:23 pm

I think the big issue for Boston today is the long term health of Kemba Walker and not if and when they use the TPE.

In many respects GH leaving was a blessing for Boston that gave them a year of tax relief. Next year Tatum hits the big bucks so that should be considered in terms of adding a long term contract. Smart has 2 years remaining on his underpaid contract.

On the surface having a sizeable TPE looks great on paper but this team is not going to add an expensive multi-year contract to the mix.

The elephant in the room is limping.

Danny freed up cap space and was able to add 2 quality free agents that play positions of need. That is the real value Danny got when GH left. The TPE looks like an insurance policy.



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Post by gyso Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:11 pm

I'm putting my money on "wait and see". Wait to see how our current roster plays out and see where our biggest holes are. Maybe even wait until the trading deadline. Cash strapped teams will want to dump salary. Other teams that want to prepare for the next off season free agency will also be dumping salary.

They will be less apt to want other assets coming back.

We do have a couple smaller trade exceptions, so look there for smaller upgrades.

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Post by dboss Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:11 pm

If teams see value in any of the players presented Danny is not going to be able to go in and steal them. Those teams would have to be in a dump salary mode.

Fit and salary considerations should be considered.

The one position we could really use is not on the list (A starting level PG)

I look for a minor addition down the road.



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Post by dboss Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:13 pm

gyso wrote:I'm putting my money on "wait and see".  Wait to see how our current roster plays out and see where our biggest holes are.  Maybe even wait until the trading deadline.  Cash strapped teams will want to dump salary.  Other teams that want to prepare for the next off season free agency will also be dumping salary.  

They will be less apt to want other assets coming back.

We do have a couple smaller trade exceptions, so look there for smaller upgrades.

gyso

This makes perfect sense. Keep your powder dry.

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Post by dboss Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:17 pm

I think we will find out which teams are interested . Everyone one looking to dump salary will be calling Danny. Philly basically had to pay OKC to take on AH contract.

By the way if KO came back Cowens would need some form of intervention!
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Post by RosalieTCeltics Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:49 pm

I wonde if Dinwiddie wants to stay in Brooklyn with the two ball hogs. He really was playing well while these two were out. I am surprised that Joe Harris did not look for greener pastures too.
This is just my opinion, I have read nothing about either player wanting out. I guess it comes from the fact that Kyrie irritates the hell out of me. Anyway, just my head rattling off little to nothing!!!

I believe Danny will wait it out for a bit, if he determines he definitely is going to need a good point guard, maybe he will go shopping to see what he might be able to get
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Post by cowens/oldschool Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:30 pm

Of all the players I’ve seen, the 2 that jump out that could really help us are Aaron Gordon and Dinwiddie, but don’t see why Magic would give up Gordon. Dinwiddie could be a possibility, as they have Kyrie now.

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Post by RosalieTCeltics Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:40 pm

At one point there were rumors about Gordon being traded (deadline time) but that was just it, rumors. Why would they give up on a young guy like him? They are building down there, it would be foolish.
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Post by cowens/oldschool Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:10 pm

RosalieTCeltics wrote:At one point there were rumors about Gordon being traded (deadline time) but that was just it, rumors. Why would they give up on a young guy like him?  They are building down there, it would be foolish.

Right don’t think it could happen, but love his game. He could be the ultimate athletic 4 playing off the 2 J’s, dunks alley opps galore.

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Post by kdp59 Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:40 am

Believe it or not but Gordan has been in the NBA for SIX season now. His game has sort of leveled off or even declined a bit. With his game based on extreme athletic ability, those type of players decline as age hits faster.

so all that and the fact that Orlando has other/younger options on their roster now is why they "could" have been looking to move him.

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Post by cowens/oldschool Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:19 am

kdp59 wrote:Believe it or not but Gordan has been in the NBA for  SIX season now. His game has sort of leveled off or even declined a bit. With his game based on extreme athletic ability, those type of players decline as age hits faster.

so all that and the fact that Orlando has other/younger options on their roster now is why they "could" have been looking to move him.


Him just as an uber athletic role player would be great. He’s not a first option scorer type of player, but his all around game could obviously blossom playing with all our talent.

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Post by bobheckler Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:56 am

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Bob


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Post by NYCelt Tue Dec 01, 2020 12:05 pm

Class shown by Ainge on this.

Maybe a good lead for everyone in Celtic-World to follow and allow this now tired subject to be put to bed.
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Post by bobheckler Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:48 pm

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2020/12/gordon-hayward-trade-boston-celtics-anticipated-hayward-leaving-in-free-agency-for-the-last-few-months.html



Gordon Hayward trade: Boston Celtics anticipated Hayward leaving in free agency ‘for the last few months’


Updated 1:29 PM; Today 1:29 PM


By John Karalis | JKaralis@masslive.com


Now that the Gordon Hayward saga is complete, the last bit of housekeeping is figuring out why Hayward is waking up in Charlotte instead of Boston this Tuesday morning.

“Well, we set out to try to get Gordon to come back,” Boston Celtics President of Basketball Operations Danny Ainge said on 98.5′s Toucher and Rich this morning. “That was our number one goal in the offseason was to get Gordon back with the Celtics. He’s a terrific player. And I just think that he preferred to go somewhere else, and made his choice to go to Charlotte... I think he preferred to be a more featured player, and Charlotte was paying him a lot of money. And he chose to go there.”

In a conversation with reporters this morning, Ainge admitted that he “was anticipating the possibility” of Hayward leaving in free agency “for the last few months.” When it turned out that Hayward wanted out of Boston, the focus shifted to finding a mutually beneficial situation, including Hayward’s rumored desire to play for his hometown Indiana Pacers.

“Indiana was one of a handful of teams, maybe three or four teams would probably be a more accurate description, that we talked about the potential of sign and trades,” Ainge said. “And, as you know, with sign and trades the player controls that because, if we work out a deal with another team but Gordon doesn’t want to go there, then he doesn’t have to go there. It takes all three parties to be pleased.”

One perception that has persisted is that Ainge overplayed his hand with the Pacers, who were rumored to be offering Myles Turner and a first round draft pick as part of the package. Ainge wouldn’t comment directly about those talks, but says that perception is not accurate.

That’s not even close to fair,” Ainge said on 98.5. “I understand that perspective from because if you don’t know what I know, then you really don’t know, at all, what happened... We knew all four of those options and what they were so any trade that came on, it had to be a trade that we wanted, not a trade just to let Gordon go somewhere where he wanted to play, it had to be something that was good for the Celtics, and good for our business, for our luxury tax, for our personnel and, and the cost of their contracts.”

Part of Hayward finding a new home appears to be his desire for a bigger role.

“I think he just wants to be involved in the offense more, having the ball in his hands to dribble and pass and participate in the offense a little bit more,” Ainge said. “I think it’s very common, and I think we’ve had some good players. Kemba (Walker), Jaylen (Brown) and Jayson (Tatum), Marcus (Smart), those guys demand the ball some, and I think if you ask each one of them, they’d probably like to have a little bit more of a featured role. But that’s the nature of our business that we’re in, that’s not any knock on Gordon in any way shape or form.”

So Hayward will pursue that in Charlotte while Boston, and his former college coach Brad Stevens, try to piece together a way to make up for what he brought to the team.

”At the end of the day, free agency is free agency for a reason,” Stevens said. “You get a chance to decide what you want to do and where you want to spend your next step of your career, and there’s usually a lot of factors that go into that... Our goal is obviously to be a little better than we’ve been, but I’m certainly happy for anyone that gets a chance to make a decision that they think is right for themselves.”


Bob
MY NOTE:  I give credit to Gordon for giving us a chance to work out a sign-and-trade, and I give Danny credit for getting value out of a situation where he had limited control over after the trade deadline.  IF what Danny is saying is true, that he believed for months that Gordon was going to move on to a team where he could be "the guy" again, then why didn't he trade him by the deadline last year?  One answer might be that Gordon's agent might pull the acquiring GM aside and say to them "so, how much will you be willing to pay to retain my client in the coming years?" and if the answer isn't something along the lines of "$25+M for 4 years" the agent might tell that GM "well then you probably shouldn't do this deal with Danny because Gordon will walk after the season".  Trading a highly desired player in their final contract year is perilous.  We got to stare into that abyss when Danny was trying to work out a trade with New Orleans for Anthony Davis.  Davis didn't want to resign with us, and that killed that. Would Indy have been willing to trade for Gordon in February before the trade deadline, giving up Turner etal, if they weren't confident Gordon would resign with them? I wouldn't, not if I was Indy's GM.


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Post by gyso Tue Dec 01, 2020 3:27 pm

BobH,

"IF what Danny is saying is true, that he believed for months that Gordon was going to move on to a team where he could be "the guy" again, then why didn't he trade him by the deadline last year?"

I don't believe that's a fair statement.  Danny actually said, “for the last few months.”

The league shut down in March.  The trading deadline was in February.  That is over nine months ago.

Even if you extend "for months" back to six months, that leaves us at end of May, early June.

gyso

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Post by Shamrock1000 Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:51 pm

bobheckler wrote:https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2020/12/gordon-hayward-trade-boston-celtics-anticipated-hayward-leaving-in-free-agency-for-the-last-few-months.html

MY NOTE:   IF what Danny is saying is true, that he believed for months that Gordon was going to move on to a team where he could be "the guy" again, then why didn't he trade him by the deadline last year?  One answer might be that Gordon's agent might pull the acquiring GM aside and say to them "so, how much will you be willing to pay to retain my client in the coming years?" and if the answer isn't something along the lines of "$25+M for 4 years" the agent might tell that GM "well then you probably shouldn't do this deal with Danny because Gordon will walk after the season".


.

That is the essence of any potential criticism of how Ainge handled the situation. Your explanation for Danny's inaction seems unlikely - in this day and age, it is hard to believe that such hypothesized conversations could have taken place without any leaks. That being said, I am withholding judgment on GH's leaving until I see what Danny gets with the TPE. If he hits a homerun, then he has outsmarted us all. Again. If we get nothing in return (possible)or even a middling player, then Danny underperformed in this situation. It happens...even to great GMs...no one wins every transaction...

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Post by dboss Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:54 pm

gyso wrote:BobH,

"IF what Danny is saying is true, that he believed for months that Gordon was going to move on to a team where he could be "the guy" again, then why didn't he trade him by the deadline last year?"

I don't believe that's a fair statement.  Danny actually said, “for the last few months.”

The league shut down in March.  The trading deadline was in February.  That is over nine months ago.

Even if you extend "for months" back to six months, that leaves us at end of May, early June.

gyso

You beat me to it. I was going to make the same comment.

Also the TPE will not be used right now. Danny is in no hurry.

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Post by gyso Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:29 pm

"That's not even close to fair" Ainge said. I'll second the motion. Rolling Eyes

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Post by Ktron Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:12 pm

bobheckler wrote:This deal isn't "in the books" until we know what Danny does with the TPE.  Having said that we can still do a quick review of where we are right now.  (Looking back after writing this maybe it wasn't such a "quick" review)

The offer on the table from Indy was, allegedly, Turner + a rotation player + a 1st round pick.  I say "allegedly" because both sides have an interest in making themselves look like it wasn't their fault it didn't go through.  The rotation player most mentioned was Doug McDermott.  Was this a deal Danny should have taken?


The Indy Offer

Going from back to front we'll start with the pick.  Without a big trade any Indy pick is likely to be in the 18-22 range.  They're good enough to make the playoffs in the East but not good enough to be in the top 3 or 4.  A #18 pick can get you a good player but probably not much better than that.  It can happen, of course, Avery Bradley was a #19 pick, but if they were all that obvious they would be a lottery pick.  So, ok but not awesome.  

I am not a McBuckets fan and never have been.  I have always thought he was too slow, too much of a tweener, too one-dimensional to make it in the NBA.  He's a good catch-and-shoot from 3 player and a good frito shooter, I'll give him that, but he's a lead-footed liability on defense.  He's the 3 without the D.  Prove me wrong.  The rumors were that Danny wanted TJ Warren or Oladipo and that wasn't flying in Pacerland.  Well, if that's so, then it wasn't "a rotation player" it was for a lesser rotation player.  $7.33M worth of expiring contract to a useless player going to a team that was over the salary cap.  Not for me, thank you very much.

Which leaves us with Myles Turner, clearly the centerpiece of this offer.  Zach Lowe reported Danny asked around about Turner's trade value.  Doesn't sound like something someone would do with a player he coveted, does it?  Should he covet Turner?  Turner is another 3-and-D player, except that he's a 5.  His 3pt fg% is a little above Theis', and he takes more 3pt fgas than Theis, but below Marcus Smart's.  Do we really need/want a slightly better (as in 34.4% vs 33.3%) big who launches even more from outside?  I don't.  The other strength of Turner's is his rim protection.  That is, admittedly, why he is in the league and he's pretty good, better than Theis.  But, once again, is that what we need?  Theis isn't bad, just not as good as Turner, but Robert Williams is as good as Turner at this.  Do we need another Time Lord?  I say no.  I say we need to give RWill more minutes.  So, what do we need?  With the departure of Enes Kanter we needed beef.  Theis is not a big center, Williams is a toothpick too and Turner wasn't going to be able to handle Embiid etal.  So Turner isn't really what we want and need and if his trade value around the league is weak then that's a bad deal.

Another point to be made here is this:  Because this deal fell apart and Gordon left without players coming here our salary dropped down to where we had the full MLE and not just the mini MLE.  That extra money was used to sign Tristan Thompson, who is what we want/need.  He's beef.  His offense is as limited as Kanter's, it's all around the basket.  His rebounding is elite, as is Kanter's, but his defense is lightyears ahead of Kanter's (not saying anything given that Kanter's pnr and low post defense is the worst I've seen in a big in a very, very long time...maybe ever).

So, in the interim, this came down to a player we didn't need (and couldn't get good trade value in from other GMs) + an expiring contract attached to a player that will be a veteran's minimum next year (if that) and a mediocre pick.  Not much value for us here, in my opinion, and we'd have player contracts we don't want weighing us down.  Turner's contract is $18M/year for 3 more years, a total of $54M.  We got Tristan Thompson for $9.5M/year for 2 years, a total of $19M.  Thompson, the player I'd rather have, is half the money year-by-year and a smaller total contract outstanding.  Cheaper, more contract flexibility, smaller salary cap impact, better trade value, much better rebounder.  Put simply, a deal that swapped out Turner for Thompson would have been the better deal for us, so what does that say about Turner and Indy's deal when the other two components were a poison pill and a mediocrity?


The Charlotte Deal

We still lose Gordon, that was a given no matter where he went, but what did we get in return?  We got a $28M TPE.  That is, potentially, a massive win by Danny.

kdp provided a list of player that could fit into this TPE, I won't go over that list, but there is one that wasn't included that may be doable and that makes sense, and that player is Buddy Hield.  We know Buddy wants out of Sacto.  That's key.  It's all very fine and good to come up with some fantasy basketball wish list but the other team has to want to do the deal.  He is under contract for the next 4 years.  He makes $24.4M this season and then declines the next 3 years until he's only making $18.6M.  That is a very favorable team-friendly contract.  Sacramento is a small-market team and money is always an issue with them.  


Conclusion

Hard to draw one until we see who Danny gets with the TPE, but he gained flexibility by not having to take players and contracts he doesn't want and would look to flip.  He buys time putting together a trade that works and that doesn't have to get done before training camp starts or even before this year's trade deadline.  With a 2nd straight year of lower league revenues, the season is only 72 games this year, the impetus for teams to shed salary might be even greater this summer.  He can use the TPE on multiple good players ($28M is a lot of money.  $14M players are pretty decent players and Danny can get two of them.  Two veterans, he says as he licks his chops...) or he could get lucky and catch a team in a bind and get a potential future All-Star.  Buddy Hield, for example, could start on just about any NBA team.  He would, at the minimum, be a candidate for 6th Man if he came off the bench.  That would be a nice haul for a player who was going to leave anyway because MJ was willing to throw crazy money at him.  Whether this was just Fool's Luck-O-the-Irish or Cool Hand Danny not panicking and grabbing at some boat anchors thrown to him by Indy, which they claimed to be life preservers, I don't know but all could be very well that ends well.  


Bob


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I hope all ends well. We all do. A well thought out piece Bob but again, Hayward no longer belonged to us so Gordon doing us “a solid” by allowing negotiations to go on is just that. A solid. We had no leverage because we had no player any more. Who the Hell does Danny think he is? More than likely thats the thought going around the league and thats why we are where we are. Maybe we end up getting lucky but our GM has played out.

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