The trickle-down implications of Gordon Hayward’s departure on the Tristan Thompson signing

https://www.celticsblog.com/2020/12/4/22149243/boston-celtics-gordon-haywards-departure-on-the-tristan-thompson-signing-nba-free-agency



The trickle-down implications of Gordon Hayward’s departure on the Tristan Thompson signing


The impact of the Celtics’ newest addition may be muted.


By Greg Brueck-Cassoli  

Dec 4, 2020, 10:00am EST




Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports



The Boston Celtics officially signed veteran big man Tristan Thompson to a two-year deal this week. The team’s new center brings a skillset that overlaps in many ways with their current starter at the five, Daniel Theis. Where Thompson relies on his athleticism, Theis gets by a bit on guile, but the end results aren’t dissimilar.

Both players provide solid defensive instincts, above-average mobility for their position, and a willingness to fill a low usage role on the offensive end. Both offer nominal rim protection, but provide their greatest value as switch defenders and reliable lane cloggers capable of mucking up driving lanes and recovering to roll men and cutters with enough quickness to position themselves between would be scorers and the rim.

Theis thrived as the lone true big in the Celtics’ starting unit last year. His nimble feet did enough to delay ball handlers in the pick-and-roll and as a help defender to give Boston’s army of long athletic wings just enough time to wreak havoc via rearview contests and as helpers away from the ball.

https://streamable.com/h6o0fu

The formula worked beautifully. The Celtics allowed a very stingy 105.4 points per 100 possessions in the non-garbage time minutes in which Theis played, per Cleaning the Glass. Offensively Theis was an effective screener and ball mover who soaked up very few possessions that weren’t layups, dunks, or occasional looks from beyond the arc.

Theis lost his touch from deep last year, connecting on just 34.0% of his three point attempts, after posting a far more encouraging 37.7% mark the year prior. His hesitancy to shoot the ball cramped the Celtics spacing a bit at times in the Playoffs, but on the whole Theis’ willingness to take a backseat to his more talented teammates was a major plus.

Thompson has the tools to fill a similar role in Boston this year. Gone are the days of shifting to a drop scheme to accommodate Enes Kanter and praying that other teams don’t notice the plodding big man with a giant target on his chest. Thompson has shifty feet and short-range quickness to match Theis’ impact, and even brings a bit of additional heft to the table that should serve him well in dealing with the league’s biggest behemoths on the block.

https://streamable.com/vqbau0

The Celtics can rely on quality minutes from the center position for a full 48 minutes every single night, without having to worry about adjusting their playing style based on personnel. That’s a huge immediate dividend that adding Thompson to the rotation will pay in Boston, but jubilation over the team’s new addition may need to be tempered.

Part of what made Theis such a spectacular fit for the Celtics last year was the broader ecosystem in which he existed. His defensive gifts accentuated the talents of Boston’s trio of big, smart wings in Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Gordon Hayward. Sprinkle in a dash of Marcus Smart, and the Celtics could essentially ensure that at least two versatile, athletic defenders were on the court with Theis at all times.

Hayward is gone, and the options to replace his minutes all come with warts. Smart will likely slide into a starting role, which will give Boston’s defense a boost if anything, but the bench is filled with pieces that won’t fit so snugly next to whomever fills the backup center spot among Theis and Thompson, despite their duplicity of skills.

Grant Williams may be able to offer enough defensive ability, but playing him as a power forward alongside a non-shooting big is a recipe for offensive disaster. Semi Ojeleye remains a train wreck doing anything other than taking shoulders to the chest from huge opponents. Jeff Teague is a defensive minus who could benefit more from a traditional rim protector cleaning up messes than a more mobile option like Theis or Thompson.

Barring an unexpected leap from the Celtics’ fringiest “veterans,” that leaves Javonte Green (an intriguing athlete lacking in consistency), Romeo Langford (likely out due to injury until mid-season), and Boston’s two rookies, Aaron Nesmith and Payton Pritchard, none of whom inspire all that much confidence.

Nesmith holds the most long-term potential to help build back up the Celtics’ ecosystem of wings, but he’s unlikely to help cover Hayward’s absence in a particularly meaningful way this year. The trickle-down effects of losing an All-Star caliber player are wide ranging, and include the negation of some of the benefits of Boston’s biggest free agency signing. There’s not much that can be done about it at this point.

That doesn’t mean Thompson isn’t a good addition. He’s a reliable role player who knows what it takes to win a championship and will enable the Celtics to maintain strategic continuity between their starting lineups and bench and hybrid units. Boston is most assuredly a better team with Thompson on its roster, just not quite as good as if Hayward were still around.


Bob
MY NOTE:  Does losing an all-round good-to-elite player like Hayward hurt?  Of course, but Teague is an upgrade over Wanny (at least so they say) and Thompson is an upgrade over Kanter.  As I pointed out on another thread I expect organic growth from players from last year like the Williams boys and, while I hate relying on rookies, this opportunity is tailor-made for shooters like Nesmith and Pritchard.

Don't worry, you will be given plenty of opportunity to panic later...


.

If GH did not leave we would not have been able to sign TT using the full MLE or JT using the BAE.

That is a trickle UP effect.  The trickle down effect is trying to find a replacement for GH as it relates to a multi dimensional talent that had a full tool box at his disposal.  

There is no new additions to this roster that fill the void left by GH.  That is a fact and Celtics fans just need to accept that.

His replacement therefore most come in the form of a variety of players with varying skill sets.  None come with a complete package.  GH scored an efficient 17.5 PPG for us on offense while allowing 3 other guys to be high scorers.  The Celtics are a 3 point dependent team.  The biggest issue on replacement, centers around finding efficiency along with volume on shooting.   Second, ball handling and playmaking skills.  GH was a solid assist guy not because he was anything close to being an outstanding passer.  His assists came from his inherent unselfishness play and the willingness to move the ball over to the open man.  His ability to read defenses and understand what is happening in front of him and his ability to recognize things in a split second and make the right play.

We should expect Jayson Tatum to become more of a primary ball handler and playmaker.   Jaylen Brown needs to become more involved in playmaking situation and the best place to start is in the PNR situations.  I saw some stats not sure where but JB was pretty efficient running PNR from up top.  Brad limited his opportunities to do that but with GH gone expect the J's to take on that challenge.

Enter Aaron Nesmith.  Step right up young fella.  GH passed the ball to guys like JT and JB because they are reliable shot makers.  Now JT takes on a bigger roll running offense and finding open guys like the rookie Nesmith and his running buddy. Jaylen Brown.  If Jayson can expand on his play making ability and if Nesmith proves to be that dead eyed shooter we envision, the Celtics will not miss GH as much as we may think.

I want to say one more thing about this.  The Celtics added Jeff Teague.  Jeff Teague averaged 5.2 assists per game last year.  He is a pass first PG but has a nice balance and understanding to score as well.  His assist totals were more than any player on our team last year including Marcus Smart and Kemba Walker.

While GH brought solid playmaking ability, adding Teague combined with step up roles for Tatum and Brown should compensate for the loss of GH.  If Nesmith is a flop shooting the rock, and none of our other young players step up, we may be in trouble on offense.

dboss,

According to Spotrac, we signed JT2 using the vet minimum, not the BAE.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/

IMO, replacing the potential of GH will be hard, but replacing the reality of GH will not be as hard. We went "without" GH much more in the last three seasons than we went "with" him.

The void will be filled, as you say, a variety of players with varying skill sets. As in nature, a vacuum will be filled. A leak here and a leak there will eventually bring about equilibrium.

Is it time for Ubuntu?

gyso wrote:dboss,

According to Spotrac, we signed JT2 using the vet minimum, not the BAE.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/

IMO, replacing the potential of GH will be hard, but replacing the reality of GH will not be as hard.  We went "without" GH much more in the last three seasons than we went "with" him.

The void will be filled, as you say, a variety of players with varying skill sets.  As in nature, a vacuum will be filled.  A leak here and a leak there will eventually bring about equilibrium.

Is it time for Ubuntu?

Gyso

Thanks for correcting the record on what was used to sign JT.

Good point regarding availability. GH missed a lot of games yet Boston made it to the ECF. Without him 2 times. Also one time before he arrived. I guess that should tell us about this franchise and coach Steven's. Criticisms aside, he is no smuck. I think he is pleased with this roster.

Dboss,

I call him JT2 because we already have a JT.

I kept watching Spotrac to see how we signed JT2, it wasn't until after your post that I went back to verify how he was signed. They finally got around to showing "minimum" as the method.

For what it's worth, that means we still have the BAE. It's not much but it may come in handy later on in the season.

glad someone else pointed out that no matter how talented, a player that can't play is ZERO help in a game.