Danny gets Draft Grade of 45% from me - Overall since 2003

I was thinking the same thing as Vankisa but wanted to wait until today to put the work in.  I didn't touch the Traded list because they are part of another story (they were drafted by us and traded away for something or someone, and that package determines whether trading them was a good thing or not)

Draft pick = ()

How good or bad a draft pick is likely to be depends upon where they are drafted.  Yes, it's a bit of a crap shoot and sometimes pearls drop to lower picks (e.g. Jimmy Butler @ 30 and DeAndre Jordan @ 35) but most of the time high draft picks turn out to be quality NBA players and lower draft picks turn out to be short-timers.  Here is 82games.com giving the probability of what they will be based upon where they are selected.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

If you are Top 5 there is a better than 50% chance you will be a star.  If you are 6-10 there is only a 16-20% chance of being a star.  If you compare players' draft spots with this analysis you get a better idea of how good Danny is at drafting quality based upon where he's drafting at.  Rondo, at 21, only had a 10% chance of being a star and a 40% chance of being a "solid starter".  That's a win for Danny.  He had misses in the mid-first round, but those are kinda crap shooty anyway.  Any player drafted in the 20s who turns out to be a solid rotation player is a big draft win.  The Time Lord could be that this year (it won't be long before we'll see if his self-confidence is misplaced).

Danny had two draft wins out of 5 Category A players, and 3 "well, yeah, of course! Look where they got drafted!".  In Category B he had another two draft wins out of 5, the other 3 were about what they should have been given their draft number. In Category C he had a loser in Kelly Olynyk, because a #13 pick should be better.  I think it's too soon to make a call on Romeo.  He missed a lot of games as a rook.  Same with the Williams boys, too soon (although the clock is running faster on RWill than GWill).  Category D has James Young and Yabby as busts.  That's two players out of 8 in that category.  The other 6 players should be expected to be busts, that's why they dropped that far.  It's either because they are perceived as limited in skills or have an injury history or something that makes them unappealing to every GM picking before then.


Category A (highest quality productive players drafted by Boston)

2004 Al Jefferson (15)
2006 Rajon Rondo (21) - drafted by Phx for us as part of multiple trades by Danny
2014 Marcus Smart (6)
2016 Jaylen Brown (3) - part of PP/KG trade.  Steal of the Century, SO good it got Nets GM Billy King fired.
2017 Jayson Tatum (3) - part of PP/KG trade.  Was #1 but Danny traded down and also got Romeo for free.


Category B (Solid starters and rotation players that may have become valuable trade assets)

2003 Kendrick Perkins (27) - straight out of High School
2004 Tony Allen (25) - Danny got his draft rights as part of a 3-team trade in 2/04
2005 Gerald Green (18) - traded to Minny as part of the KG trade
2010 Avery Bradley (19) - 1X All-Defense First Team, 1X All-Defense Second Team
2015 Terry Rozier (16)


Category C (Decent but Average players - limited or unknown upside)

2004 Delonte West (24) - future draft rights were part of Raef LaFrentz/Antoine Walker trade with Dallas
2013 Kelly Olynyk (13) - Danny traded up from 16 for Olynyk.  Dallas got Nogueira (not in NBA anymore)
2018 Robert Williams (27)
2019 Grant Williams (22)
2019 Romeo Langford (14) - a freebie because Danny fleeced Bryan Colangelo.  Playing with Sixers' money.

Category D (Way below average guys for one reason or another that should not have been drafted in the first round)

2008 JR Giddens (30)
2011 Jajuan Johnson (27) - rights traded to us by Nets for Marshon Brooks, who came to us in PP/KG trade.
2012 Jared Sullinger (21) - Could have been better but ate himself out of the league.
2012 Fab Melo (22) - draft rights came as part of Perk trade with OKC.  Soured me forever on Boeheim.
2014 James Young (17) - draft rights were part of the PP/KG trade with Brooklyn
2015 RJ Hunter (28) - was our compensation for allowing Doc to exit Celtic contract and sign with Clippers.
2015 Guerschon Yabusele (16) - draft rights part of trade that got us Jae Crowder and sent Rondo to Dallas.
2016 Anti Zizic (23) - sent to Cleveland as part of Kyrie trade


Bob

If we agree that it's unreasonable to look at a mid-to-late first rounder the same way you'd look at a top 10 pick then let's look at this list through a different type of prism.  Rather than ranking them by "Category of Quality" let's look at them in draft order and then consider whether they measure up to reasonable expectations for any player picked there.

The expectations are, once again, being set by https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm.


TOP 10 picks - 25-85% chance of stardom, 15-40% chance of being a solid starter.  The 25% chance of being a star is a precipitous drop, specifically for the #6 pick.  1-5 are all 60% and up.

Jayson Tatum (3) - Likelihood of becoming a star = 85%?  Bingo.
Jaylen Brown (3) - Winner, winner, chicken dinner.  Everybody was second-guessing Danny on this pick.  Jaylen was projected to go around #7 but Danny saw something and he was right.
Marcus Smart (6) - Winner.  A perennial DPOY candidate.  25% chance of becoming a star, 30% chance of being a solid starter.  He's definitely a solid starter and is a defensive star.  

That's it for Top 10 picks for Danny in the last 17 years.  3 picks, all winners as we would expect picks that high to be.  Not a bad pick among them.  This isn't particularly laudatory, a GM cannot screw up picks this high unless they want to be unemployed, and Danny didn't.


Top 11-14 (the rest of the lottery).  15-20% chance of stardom, 15-20% chance of being a solid starter. So, a statistical ceiling of 40% of being either a star or a solid starter.  About a 25-40% chance of being a Role Player.

Kelly Olynyk (13) - A role player.  Played 19mpg last year and shot 40% from 3.  That's a role.
Romeo Langford (14) - Too soon to say, in my opinion, but unless he's a bust he has trade value and he was free (thanks to Trader Danny).
Aaron Nesmith (14) - Obviously WAY too soon to call.  He was payment for Jeff Green.  Unless he's a complete bust with no trade value he has to be better than Green.

So Danny's got 1 "role player", which is what draftees picked here should be expected to be, and 2 "we'll see".  The jury's out, if Romeo and Aaron work out then that's all 3 picks coming from draft spots that are likely to produce just role players being just that, and if Romeo and/or Aaron pleasantly surprise us (to do that they just need to become legit role players) then we have a solid draft pick winning record in this group too.


Top 15-22 (half of the rest of the 1st round).  20-40% chance of being a solid starter, 20-30% chance of being 'deep bench'.

Al Jefferson (15) - Solid Starter for many years.  Good enough to be the key to the KG trade.  Played 14 years.
Terry Rozier (16) - Starter for Charlotte
Guerschon Yabusele (16) - Bust.  Draft rights part of trade that got us Jae Crowder and sent Rondo to Dallas.
James Young (17) - Bust.  Draft rights were part of the PP/KG trade with Brooklyn
Gerald Green (18) - A role player.  Traded to Minny as part of the KG trade.  
Avery Bradley (19) - Role player, and a good one.  1X All-Defense First Team, 1X All-Defense Second Team.  Overachiever.
Rajon Rondo (21) - drafted by Phx for us as part of multiple trades by Danny.  Solid starter, champion
Jared Sullinger (21) - Could have been better, could have been a solid back up, but ate himself out of the league.
Fab Melo (22) - Bust.  Draft rights came as part of Perk trade with OKC.  Soured me forever on Boeheim.
Grant Williams (22) - too soon to call, but Brad likes him apparently.

Two starters (Big Al and Rondo).  Those are big-time wins for where they were drafted.  Two role players (GG and AB).  Both very good at what they do.  So, two more wins for Danny, just not BIG wins.  You either swing for the fences here or you go for the solid "I know I can find minutes for them just doing what I know they can do" players, and that describes both Green and Bradley.  I'm not sure how to describe Sully, other than as a disappointment.  He could have had a nice, long NBA career if he could have just pushed himself away from the buffet table.  Danny also had 3 busts (Young, Yabby and Fab).  Players drafted in this range have a 10-20% chance of being busts.  10 draft picks in this range, 3 busts.  Not so good for Danny, but did anybody legitimately expect James Young to be that bad?


Top 23-30 picks (the remainder of the first round).  The likelihood is that they will be "deep bench", about 40-60%.  They also have a 15-30% chance of being busts.  Pretty much anything better than a bust is acceptable.  The best idea is to trade out of those positions and not pick at all.


Anti Zizic (23) - Deep bench to Bust.  Let's just call him a bust.
Delonte West (24) - Solid back up player who started in 258 out of 432 games played.  This is a win.
Tony Allen (25) - Solid role player, NBA starter.  The Grind Master.  This is a big win.
Payton Pritchard (26) - Too soon to call.
Kendrick Perkins (27) - Starter on a Championship team.  Another BIG win.
Jajuan Johnson (27) - Bust.  But was Big 10 POY and Big 10 DPOY, so there was something there, it just never panned out.  
Robert Williams (27) - Role player or deep bench?  We'll know this year.  Either way he's not a bust and that makes him at least a decent pick at #27.
RJ Hunter (28) - Bust.  He was part of the Doc-to-LAC trade, so another freebie by Danny, but he never worked out.
JR Giddens (30) - Bust.  Drafting #30 has to be the absolute worst place to pick.  The dregs of the first round but without the contract flexibility you get with a 2nd rounder #31 pick.

Three winners (West, Allen and Perk), one ok (The Time Lord), one "too soon to call" and four busts.  If we give RWill the benefit of the doubt and exclude this year's rook that means four good picks, three of which were excellent picks, and 4 busts.  50/50 is pretty damn good this far down in the draft.

Not all draft picks are equal.


Bob


.

bobheckler wrote:If we agree that it's unreasonable to look at a mid-to-late first rounder the same way you'd look at a top 10 pick then let's look at this list through a different type of prism.  Rather than ranking them by "Category of Quality" let's look at them in draft order and then consider whether they measure up to reasonable expectations for any player picked there.

The expectations are, once again, being set by https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm.


TOP 10 picks - 25-85% chance of stardom, 15-40% chance of being a solid starter.  The 25% chance of being a star is a precipitous drop, specifically for the #6 pick.  1-5 are all 60% and up.

Jayson Tatum (3) - Likelihood of becoming a star = 85%?  Bingo.
Jaylen Brown (3) - Winner, winner, chicken dinner.  Everybody was second-guessing Danny on this pick.  Jaylen was projected to go around #7 but Danny saw something and he was right.
Marcus Smart (6) - Winner.  A perennial DPOY candidate.  25% chance of becoming a star, 30% chance of being a solid starter.  He's definitely a solid starter and is a defensive star.  

That's it for Top 10 picks for Danny in the last 17 years.  3 picks, all winners as we would expect picks that high to be.  Not a bad pick among them.  This isn't particularly laudatory, a GM cannot screw up picks this high unless they want to be unemployed, and Danny didn't.


Top 11-14 (the rest of the lottery).  15-20% chance of stardom, 15-20% chance of being a solid starter. So, a statistical ceiling of 40% of being either a star or a solid starter.  About a 25-40% chance of being a Role Player.

Kelly Olynyk (13) - A role player.  Played 19mpg last year and shot 40% from 3.  That's a role.
Romeo Langford (14) - Too soon to say, in my opinion, but unless he's a bust he has trade value and he was free (thanks to Trader Danny).
Aaron Nesmith (14) - Obviously WAY too soon to call.  He was payment for Jeff Green.  Unless he's a complete bust with no trade value he has to be better than Green.

So Danny's got 1 "role player", which is what draftees picked here should be expected to be, and 2 "we'll see".  The jury's out, if Romeo and Aaron work out then that's all 3 picks coming from draft spots that are likely to produce just role players being just that, and if Romeo and/or Aaron pleasantly surprise us (to do that they just need to become legit role players) then we have a solid draft pick winning record in this group too.


Top 15-22 (half of the rest of the 1st round).  20-40% chance of being a solid starter, 20-30% chance of being 'deep bench'.

Al Jefferson (15) - Solid Starter for many years.  Good enough to be the key to the KG trade.  Played 14 years.
Terry Rozier (16) - Starter for Charlotte
Guerschon Yabusele (16) - Bust.  Draft rights part of trade that got us Jae Crowder and sent Rondo to Dallas.
James Young (17) - Bust.  Draft rights were part of the PP/KG trade with Brooklyn
Gerald Green (18) - A role player.  Traded to Minny as part of the KG trade.  
Avery Bradley (19) - Role player, and a good one.  1X All-Defense First Team, 1X All-Defense Second Team.  Overachiever.
Rajon Rondo (21) - drafted by Phx for us as part of multiple trades by Danny.  Solid starter, champion
Jared Sullinger (21) - Could have been better, could have been a solid back up, but ate himself out of the league.
Fab Melo (22) - Bust.  Draft rights came as part of Perk trade with OKC.  Soured me forever on Boeheim.
Grant Williams (22) - too soon to call, but Brad likes him apparently.

Two starters (Big Al and Rondo).  Those are big-time wins for where they were drafted.  Two role players (GG and AB).  Both very good at what they do.  So, two more wins for Danny, just not BIG wins.  You either swing for the fences here or you go for the solid "I know I can find minutes for them just doing what I know they can do" players, and that describes both Green and Bradley.  I'm not sure how to describe Sully, other than as a disappointment.  He could have had a nice, long NBA career if he could have just pushed himself away from the buffet table.  Danny also had 3 busts (Young, Yabby and Fab).  Players drafted in this range have a 10-20% chance of being busts.  10 draft picks in this range, 3 busts.  Not so good for Danny, but did anybody legitimately expect James Young to be that bad?


Top 23-30 picks (the remainder of the first round).  The likelihood is that they will be "deep bench", about 40-60%.  They also have a 15-30% chance of being busts.  Pretty much anything better than a bust is acceptable.  The best idea is to trade out of those positions and not pick at all.


Anti Zizic (23) - Deep bench to Bust.  Let's just call him a bust.
Delonte West (24) - Solid back up player who started in 258 out of 432 games played.  This is a win.
Tony Allen (25) - Solid role player, NBA starter.  The Grind Master.  This is a big win.
Payton Pritchard (26) - Too soon to call.
Kendrick Perkins (27) - Starter on a Championship team.  Another BIG win.
Jajuan Johnson (27) - Bust.  But was Big 10 POY and Big 10 DPOY, so there was something there, it just never panned out.  
Robert Williams (27) - Role player or deep bench?  We'll know this year.  Either way he's not a bust and that makes him at least a decent pick at #27.
RJ Hunter (28) - Bust.  He was part of the Doc-to-LAC trade, so another freebie by Danny, but he never worked out.
JR Giddens (30) - Bust.  Drafting #30 has to be the absolute worst place to pick.  The dregs of the first round but without the contract flexibility you get with a 2nd rounder #31 pick.

Three winners (West, Allen and Perk), one ok (The Time Lord), one "too soon to call" and four busts.  If we give RWill the benefit of the doubt and exclude this year's rook that means four good picks, three of which were excellent picks, and 4 busts.  50/50 is pretty damn good this far down in the draft.

Not all draft picks are equal.


Bob


.

Bob,

I started a post yesterday about how these picks should be graded on a curve, yadda, yadda, yadda.  I didn't like how my post came off, how it sounded, how much work I had to put into it to make it right.  So in the trash it went.  Like most of the stuff I write. Time and time again.

flip* A, Bob.  Nail, meet hammer.

+1 Million.

You're a gem.  Thanks again.