Why NBA Analyst Believes Payton Pritchard Will Exceed Expectations As Celtics Rookie

wideclyde wrote:I also thought that Pritchard had a very nice first exhibition game the other night.

The author thinks that this kid will perform better than his draft position, but he does not mention what should be expected from a 26th pick.  So, without setting some standards for the 26th pick it is difficult to be able to compare whatever Pritchard does this season.

If averaging 12 minutes per game with maybe 7 PPG or 2.5 APG or shoot 45% overall or have only one TPG equals out to out performing his draft spot Pritchard may or may not outperform his draft spot.

As a Cs fan forever, I certainly hope that this kid can continue to play like he did on Tuesday, but the Cs have not had such a high level of performance from any picks above #10 in quite some time. Even #3 picks (Tatum and Brown) or #6 pick (Smart) did not go beyond what Pritchard did in his first game for their entire first seasons.  Many others of the team's picks in the 20s were all close to washouts at best.

Go Pritchard!!

Bob Heckler wrote:Top 23-30 picks (the remainder of the first round).  The likelihood is that they will be "deep bench", about 40-60%.  They also have a 15-30% chance of being busts.  Pretty much anything better than a bust is acceptable.  The best idea is to trade out of those positions and not pick at all.

Anti Zizic (23) - Deep bench to Bust.  Let's just call him a bust.
Delonte West (24) - Solid back up player who started in 258 out of 432 games played.  This is a win.
Tony Allen (25) - Solid role player, NBA starter.  The Grind Master.  This is a big win.
Payton Pritchard (26) - Too soon to call.
Kendrick Perkins (27) - Starter on a Championship team.  Another BIG win.
Jajuan Johnson (27) - Bust.  But was Big 10 POY and Big 10 DPOY, so there was something there, it just never panned out.  
Robert Williams (27) - Role player or deep bench?  We'll know this year.  Either way he's not a bust and that makes him at least a decent pick at #27.
RJ Hunter (28) - Bust.  He was part of the Doc-to-LAC trade, so another freebie by Danny, but he never worked out.
JR Giddens (30) - Bust.  Drafting #30 has to be the absolute worst place to pick.  The dregs of the first round but without the contract flexibility you get with a 2nd rounder #31 pick.

Three winners (West, Allen and Perk), one ok (The Time Lord), one "too soon to call" and four busts.  If we give RWill the benefit of the doubt and exclude this year's rook that means four good picks, three of which were excellent picks, and 4 busts.  50/50 is pretty damn good this far down in the draft.