Healthy core creates 'big' issue for Celtics

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/finally-healthy-core-creates-big-man-position-problem-celtics



Healthy core creates 'big' issue for Celtics



22H AGO


BY CHRIS FORSBERG
CELTICS INSIDER



The Boston Celtics finally have a healthy core but the tradeoff for getting a glimpse of the Kemba Walker-Jaylen Brown-Jayson Tatum troika is a squeeze at the already complicated big-man position.

The Celtics essentially have 48 minutes now to split between Daniel Theis, Tristan Thompson, and Robert Williams, this while still trying to figure out which player(s) in that group best complement the team’s core 4 (Walker, Brown, Tatum, and Marcus Smart).

Thompson has struggled acclimatizing to his new team and the Celtics are giving him every opportunity to work through those bumps in the road with hopes that his championship experience can aid this team. Theis has shown the value of continuity and chemistry, thriving since Kemba Walker’s return and slotting as the starter in Wednesday’s debut of the green’s latest Big Three. Alas, early foul trouble and defensive tentativeness limited his playing time to little more than 12 minutes in that game.

Then there’s third-year big man Robert Williams, who is left chasing scraps of playing time but often offering intriguing glimpses when he is on the court. Williams now leads the NBA in offensive rebound percentage while collecting 16.9 percent of all Boston’s misses while on the floor. For the season, Williams is grabbing 6.1 rebounds in just 15.3 minutes per game, all while shooting 72.1 percent.

Celtics coach Brad Stevens tinkered with two-big lineups early in the season, in part to create as much playing time as possible for his big-man stable, but there are few obvious answers moving forward. Theis has earned the right to start with his recent play but early whistles often limit his defensive aggression. Thompson, after signing for the full value of the non-taxpayer midlevel exception, has seen opponents shoot a staggering 57.9 percent against him, or 10.8 percent above those players’ expected output per the NBA’s defensive tracking data.

All this while we’re left yearning for the Celtics to go all in with Williams and at least figure out what they’ve got. He might very well sink in bigger minutes and he’s rarely stayed healthy enough to build off any bit of momentum. But, with a healthy core and two veteran bigs, Stevens is going to be hard pressed to find even 10-15 minutes per night for Williams if Theis and Thompson split the available 48.

The data from the first 17 games doesn’t offer much in the way of guidance on how Stevens should handle the big-man rotation. The early struggles of the double-big lineup also makes the data noisy. Given that Walker just returned, we honed in on the performance of Boston’s bigs when paired with the Tatum/Brown combo this season and the defensive numbers for Thompson and Theis are underwhelming.

Celtics centers when paired with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum:

CENTER.............................MIN W/JAYS.....OFF RTG......DEF RTG.....NET RTG
TRISTAN THOMPSON...........163.................115.2..........114...........1.1
DANIEL THEIS....................171.................109.............112.8.......-3.7
ROBERT WILLIAMS..............31..................124.6...........70.8.........53.8

Williams’ numbers surely pop but in a super small sample but we wouldn’t use them to suggest that Timelord is any sort of answer. That said, we’d surely like to see more of him with lineups that includes the Jays to get a better idea if a positive impact is sustainable.

Celtics fans had high hopes for Thompson given his potential to add an experienced back-line presence. There are instances where he plays terrific defense only for an opponent to make a tough shot over him — DeMar DeRozan’s pull-up jumper in the final minute against the Spurs a good example.

The Celtics have a $28.5 million trade exception to tinker with their roster moving forward. The guess here is that it’s more likely that the team will seek wing depth, or someone that can offer 4/5 versatility, than look to upgrade the center spot. And to all of those sliding in our mentions, no, Andre Drummond is most certainly not the answer at the big-man spot (and he doesn’t fit into the trade exception anyhow).

At the start of the season, we wondered about Theis as a potential trade option because he’ll be a free agent after the season and it’s hard to envision how the team can splurge to keep him at much above his current price tag ($5 million). That possibility required the team being able to lean on Thompson and Williams, maybe with a healthy dose of Grant Williams at smallball 5 mixed in, too. But, at least for now, Theis’ play and Thompson’s struggles make it more likely the team rides it out and figures out Theis' future after the season.

Ultimately, the answer here might be that this is just going to take time. Having the core finally healthy will give a better idea of who fits best alongside them. But if Stevens is going to experiment with lineups, we’d like to see him pick spots to get a longer look at Rob Williams. Maybe find an opportunity to give Thompson a night off and get a longer look at Williams in longer stints with the core.

Nearing the quarter post of the season, there hasn’t been enough separation amongst the big men and there’s a lot of lingering questions about who the team can lean on most. A healthy core has complicated matters but having the team’s stars back might eventually help Stevens solve this ‘big’ riddle.




Bob
MY NOTE:  Time Lord's stats will surely feed the fire for people who think he should play more, but Forsberg makes a solid argument for not rushing to conclusions based upon only 31 minutes of team play.  We should give him more minutes but keep an eye on this stat to see if it continues to stand up.


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I disagree with any premise that says we only have 48min/game to split between Thompson, Theis and Williams. Brad has used two of them together a lot so far, and i don't see that changing (especially come playoff time).

Even with Tatum, Brown, Walker and Smart all playing 32-34min each there is plenty of minutes for all three of them.

Great article. What I heard? Paging Mr. Stevens?! Paging Mr. Stevens?! Pick up Line 1, Mr. Ainge is holding!

Figure this all out, Bo!

kdp59,

All those other guys you mentioned their positions are interchangeable for the most part based on Brad's scheme and if you want to stretch it 3 positions (1-3) vs. 1 maybe 2 max positions (4-5) for 3 guys plus GWill. 4 guys at 48 minutes leaves 24 minutes per guy max if both playing together for the whole game. Now GWill has been in the doghouse lately. Last game Theis had 12 minutes, TT 23 minutes, GWill 11 minutes and RWill 13. These will tighten up as we get closer to the playoffs. Right now it's a free-for-all for minutes under the current "Everybody gets to play" Brad Stevens Rule.

4/5 Position is crowded for sure. To get everyone "equal" playing time at the 4/5, you have to double up at times like Brad has been "forced" to do.

db

Start Kemba Jaylen Jayson Theis RWill

Stop f..king around Brad you intellectual midget!!

Give RWill at least 25 minutes a game!!!

Fosberg is amazingly obtuse.  Does he not know that someone has been playing both PF and center.  Therefore there are more than 48 minutes for our 3 centers.

Brad Stevens has yet to give RW the minutes that he deserves and has earned.  Robert sets excellent screens and rarely gets called for offensive fouls (AKA...daniel theis)  Robert gives us verticality on the glass and he is our best shot blocker.  He is also a very astute passer.  The ball never sticks as he makes split second decisions to find open men.  I do not know what more is needed to determine that RW should be playing more then 16 MPG at center.  

I would play Theis at center for maybe 10 minutes and maybe 8-10 minutes at PF.  That leaves 36 minutes at center and I would split that between TT and RW.  whichever guys is most productive over X number of games gets a few more minutes than the other guy.  Semi should be able to give us some minutes at SF.  He is certainly quick enough to defend the 3 and he should be able to make his share of baskets from distance.   Foul trouble can and will alter rotation minutes but that is to be expected.

There are NO 30 MPG centers in the NBA.  Imagine that as the trend has been towards more small ball lineups.  

I think it is time to turn the page on our center situation so let's give 23 year old RW a real shot.  Someone is not going to be happy but so what.  It is time to finish the youth movement by actually changing our starting unit.  It's time.  I would do it now.

I can see the future for this team where PP is our starting PG and RW is our starting center.   I like KW but I would trade him at our earliest convenience.  He cannot play a lick of defense and he was never worth $34 million.   I said it before and I will say it again.  Strike while the fire is hot and the knees are strong!