Hollinger: The Play-Ins are a + no matter what Lebron says...

Self-serving commentary aside, what’s clear already from the lead-up to the play-in format is that 1) it’s working spectacularly well, and 2) there are virtually no negative unintended consequences.

This extra dash of salt in the NBA playoff race has produced excitement at nearly every level of the standings. The most important is that teams in the ninth through 12th spots are actually trying in late-season games because they have something to play for instead of resting veteran players with suspicious “tendinitis” cases in a quest for more ping-pong balls.

Teams like Toronto, Chicago, Washington and New Orleans would have given up a long time ago in the previous format because they’d have virtually no shot at the eighth seed. Instead, they have been fighting to try to reach the 10th position and the play-in. In the case of the Wizards in particular, it’s given us an unlikely dose of late-season magic and some rays of hope for one of the league’s most forlorn franchises.

Meanwhile, teams in the fifth through eighth positions can’t rest on their laurels either. A veteran team in the Lakers’ position, for instance, might have been content to glide into the playoffs as the seventh seed and deal with whatever the bracket handed them. A play-in tournament shifts that logic quite a bit, both in terms of risk (they could end up in eighth or not in the playoffs at all) and schedule (the top six teams get a week off).

As a result, we’ll likely be seeing the best of Portland, Dallas and L.A. during the home stretch, as each tries to avoid being sent to the play-in bracket. Friday’s tilt between Portland and the Lakers now looks particularly juicy. Ditto for Miami and Boston in the East, where last season’s conference finalists are battling the Knicks (!) for the five through seven spots. Boston and New York play each other the last day of the season, a game that previously would have had “we just want to be healthy for the playoffs” vibes but now could be massively important.

That, in turn, has greatly expanded the universe of late-season games where both teams are actually playing for something. While a few dregs about the bottom have been as tanktacular as ever, the fact that only six teams are truly out of playoff contention (even the Kangz remain alive!) has been a huge blessing overall. One of the league’s biggest scourges — depressingly bad late-season games featuring glorified G League rosters for both sides — has been much less of an issue this season.

In fact, one of the side benefits is what we’re not talking about: tanking. Most notably, we’ve hardly heard a peep about the Thunder’s mad dash for the third-worst record and maximum ping-pong balls, which has seen them go 2-22 with a staggering minus-18.5 scoring margin since March 23. They’re not trying to lose, of course, so much as playing rosters that make it impossible to win. OKC has mothballed perfectly healthy players (Al Horford, Mike Muscala) while letting teenage rookies Aleksej Pokusevski (PER 6.1 on 41.2 percent true shooting) and Theo Maledon (PER 8.1 on 49.5 percent true shooting) run amok.

The Thunder have thus far been outflanked in this department by a Houston team that is a breathtaking 5-39 in its last 44 outings. Nonetheless, the Thunder’s charge for the bottom three may succeed thanks to Minnesota’s inexplicable zest for winning and Orlando’s stubborn competence.

The Great Tanking Debate normally dominated the late-season discussion pre-play-in, and there’s a reason for that: The playoff race, for the most part, just wasn’t that exciting. That’s completely changed, and it will only heighten during these final games.

Moreover, we’re going to get some real excitement in the form of the play-in tournament itself. I’ve seen this described as a negative because if the ratings-boosting Lakers (and to a lesser extent, the Celtics) aren’t in the playoffs, then it seems like an own goal for the league.

The idea behind this is twofold: First, that we can’t possibly have the playoffs without the Lakers (news flash: We did every year from 2014 to 2019), and second, that the league would potentially be eliminating a championship-caliber team early via the play-in.

I see this dilemma much differently and much more positively. First of all, if the Lakers finish seventh and still can’t qualify for the playoffs, it means they weren’t good enough to earn a split against two .500-ish teams out West. Presumably, that also means they wouldn’t have good enough to last more than five games in the first round against the No. 2 seed. You’re not talking about missing out on a 20-game playoff run here.

Also, even if we only get two Lakers playoff games, those two games will surely deliver a lot more bang for the buck. A Lakers-Warriors single-elimination game for the playoffs, for instance, might outdraw an entire first-round beatdown in the 1-8 or 2-7 brackets.

Meanwhile, there’s the best-case scenario of the league of the Lakers going through the play-in and still making the playoffs, which is by far the most likely scenario, and the one that generates the most eyeballs for the league.

Do the math: If the games are coin flips, the Lakers would have a three-in-four chance of making the playoffs even if they end up in the play-in bracket. Additionally, calling the games coin flips is being very, very generous to L.A.’s potential opponents, especially if we assume some level of home-court advantage on top of that.

In reality, a seventh-seeded Lakers team would get two home games, likely with LeBron and Anthony Davis, against .500-ish opponents (probably Golden State and then Memphis) and would need to lose both to miss the playoffs. If that were the case, they almost certainly weren’t good enough to do anything noteworthy in the postseason anyway.

Also, to the larger point, why should we care so much about how this impacts the 2020-21 Lakers in particular? Wouldn’t we all be saying how amazing this was for the league if the Lakers and Knicks were both in ninth?

Overall, I’d say the play-in tournament’s impact on regular-season incentives has been about as positive as the league could possibly have imagined. Whoever came up with that s*** needs to be promoted

last year the play in was introduced because the Coronavirus shut the NBA down and in so doing, reduced the number of games played.  Revenue from TV and gate receipts were all negatively impacted.

So the play in is first about money and secondly it is about money and thirdly it is all about the money.

I do not like it one bit.  In a normal 82 game season there is more than enough games to determine the 8 teams in each conference that should qualify.  this play in round is a sudden death event.  If a top 8 team gets hit with a key player going down for a few games they may not have enough time  recovery unlike in a 7 games series when a guy could be out a game or 2 and then come back.

This season has been a physical and mental wear and tear on a lot of players.  16 out of 30 teams have been going to the playoffs up until last year.  The addition of 4 more teams really expands that number to 20 of 30 but basically makes 7 - 10 play a series of wild card games.

In the East, both the 9th and 10 seeded teams are below .500. I do not think either of them deserve to be in the playoffs.

My own view is 8 teams per conference is more than enough.

Early rounds often have too many sleeper series; 5 - 8 usually aren't going too far anyway.

If money weren't the big factor I'd say they should cut it to 4 from each conference.

Suppose you're the #10 team. You're in the "play in" tournament with the opportunity to win and continue onwards through the playoffs and, if you keep winning, could even win a Championship (100% of the teams that do not make the playoffs do not win a Championship).

How does this affect the draft? If you are #10 you are in the playoffs, do you still pick where you would have picked if there was no play-in and you were just out? And suppose you win and move on? Does your draft position suffer as you move up in the playoffs? The #10 team in the East is Washington. They have the 11th worst record in the NBA. Do they still get the #11 pick in the draft even if they win the Championship?


Bob


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Bob h

Yes draft position would change.  If you make it to #8 then you would no longer be a lottery team.  

Now I could be wrong about this but I cannot imagine a have your cake and eat it too option.

dbrown4 wrote:My point is, why, now all of the sudden, does anyone care about the 7th and 8th seeds in the NBA Playoffs?  

Have they knocked off a top 1 or 2 seed in the past? Yes.  4 times for #8, 6 times for #7 under the current format.  But remember, you have two conferences.  Significant?  I'll have to get back to you on that!  Who knows what the league looks at.  Probably the bottom line and I'm not privy to that information!  I merely assist in its calculations by adding to the bottom line!  

db

As NYcelt said 4 from each conference makes the most sense but we know it ain’t happening.
Let’s not waste time trying to figure out best case.
We all know this is all about TV and $. If it ever came down teams again , we’d probably be back to seeing them on tape delay.