Celtics Snipers

I find it hard to consider Jeff Teague a "meaningful" Celtic sniper considering he isn't a Celtic.  As a Buck he's shooting 25% from 3.  Better them than us.

Same with Theis.  A HUGE fan of his when he was here.  I was on the Daniel Theis bandwagon when I first watched film of him before he even showed up for camp.  He's shooting 25.5% from 3 with Chicago.  Unlike Teague, Theis had value for other parts of his game but his 3pt fg% wasn't one of them and it's gotten worse under a different coach's system, just like Teague's.

I took your list, deleted the former Celtics, reordered it in terms of 3pt fgas rather than %, and added mpg to see who's shooting has the most impact on the game because they're the ones taking the most shots and how long they're on the court to take those shots, it looks like this:

Player 3 point attempts per game

Player.........................3pt fg%........3pt fgas........mpg.........Total minutes
Kemba Walker----------.360-----------8.1------------31.7-------1331 (4)
Jayson Tatum-----------.385-----------7.5------------35.9-------2189 (1)
Jaylen Brown-----------.397-----------7.1------------34.5-------1999 (2)
Marcus Smart-----------.330-----------5.9-----------33.0-------1549 (3)
Evan Fournier----------.451------------5.5-----------29.1-------378 (10)
Payton Pritchard-------.414------------3.6-----------19.0-------1180 (5)
Semi Ojeleye-----------.380------------2.9-----------17.3-------899 (7)
Aaron Nesmith---------.385------------2.3-----------14.0-------587 (eight)
Grant Williams---------.361------------2.1-----------17.7-------1043 (6)
Carsen Edwards-------.302------------1.9------------8.3--------232 (9)
Luke Kornet------------.296------------1.8-----------11.9-------178 (12)
Romeo Langford-------.267------------1.0-----------14.6-------219 (11)


The NBA 3pt fg% average this season is 36.7%


Bob


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worcester,

I'd draw the Mendoza Line at 33.3%. Below which, you might as well be shooting from inside the stripe as your expected value using this number is 1 point.

This 36.7% number BobH references is why everyone is hoisting 3's like there is no tomorrow. The expected value is greater than 1 point. I'm going to guess the league average for 2 point shots is right around 50% or maybe just a little less. But using 2 points and 50% you get 1 point expected value or less.

3-point shots are worth more, statistically speaking. So bombs away!!

BobH, please send a copy of this to Brad with all of our regards!

db

worcester wrote:Bob, however one slices and dices your numbers, these conclusions are inevitable:

1. Carsen, Luke, and Romeo are not good shooters.
2. PP and Aaron are underutilized.
3. Grant ad Semi are pretty much redundant.
4. Evan needs starter minutes.
5. Marcus shoots too many three's, and perhaps up for debate,
6. Kemba does too.

Worcester,

I agree with your conclusions.  I'd just be careful when dealing with small statistical populations, such as what we're seeing from Carsen, Luke and Romeo (although I'd be willing to bet Romeo would still be a poor 3pt shooter if he shot more).

Pritchard has been playing rotation minutes all along, which is astonishing for a low draft pick rookie.  I'm not sure how many more than 19mpg you can give him if he's not having one of those games where he's really kicking some butt.  Aaron's minutes have exploded out of the box this past month.  He may be averaging 14mpg season-to-date but he has been averaging 16.5mpg over the last 10 games.  Furthermore, in his last 10 games, he's shooting 59.6% from 3!  Trending upward, clearly.  Brad has been calling plays for Nesmith in ATOs.  That's respect and confidence in the rook.  27 of his total 96 3pt fgas have been in the last 10 games alone, and he's played in 42 this year.

Fournier is averaging 29mpg.  That's starter minutes.

Smart needs to shoot more open 3s and not just chuck'em up early in the shot clock, even if he is open.

Kemba needs to drive more, bomb away less.


Bob


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Kemba has shot the three extremely well lately. I want him to keep shooting them. Tatum and Smart are good passers, but they both make some of the laziest passes I've ever seen. The next time one of them tosses the ball across court to the defender in the passing lane, I may break the tv. Smart has been a turnover machine since he came back and JT is right there with him.

bobheckler wrote:

worcester wrote:Bob, however one slices and dices your numbers, these conclusions are inevitable:

1. Carsen, Luke, and Romeo are not good shooters.
2. PP and Aaron are underutilized.
3. Grant ad Semi are pretty much redundant.
4. Evan needs starter minutes.
5. Marcus shoots too many three's, and perhaps up for debate,
6. Kemba does too.

Worcester,

I agree with your conclusions.  I'd just be careful when dealing with small statistical populations, such as what we're seeing from Carsen, Luke and Romeo (although I'd be willing to bet Romeo would still be a poor 3pt shooter if he shot more).

Pritchard has been playing rotation minutes all along, which is astonishing for a low draft pick rookie.  I'm not sure how many more than 19mpg you can give him if he's not having one of those games where he's really kicking some butt.  Aaron's minutes have exploded out of the box this past month.  He may be averaging 14mpg season-to-date but he has been averaging 16.5mpg over the last 10 games.  Furthermore, in his last 10 games, he's shooting 59.6% from 3!  Trending upward, clearly.  Brad has been calling plays for Nesmith in ATOs.  That's respect and confidence in the rook.  27 of his total 96 3pt fgas have been in the last 10 games alone, and he's played in 42 this year.

Fournier is averaging 29mpg.  That's starter minutes.

Smart needs to shoot more open 3s and not just chuck'em up early in the shot clock, even if he is open.

Kemba needs to drive more, bomb away less.


Bob


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Agree. But Kemba driving more here lately has been (A) an inability to finish and not get fouled in the process on many occasions (B) Getting caught in middair not knowing what he's going to do next. Ugg