What lies ahead for Brad Stevens this summer

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/checking-brad-stevens-offseason-do-list-and-sample-summer



What lies ahead for Brad Stevens this summer



JUL 2, 2021

BY CHRIS FORSBERG
CELTICS INSIDER



Boston Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens said this week that his team must improve to “get in the mix” with legitimate title contenders. Team owner Wyc Grousbeck suggested it could be a busy July as Stevens tinkers with the roster.

But what avenues do the Celtics actually have to adding impact talent this summer? Is there a road map to adding the sort of players that could truly aid Boston’s quest towards title contention?

The path to adding a new third star alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is prickly and could require the team to be patient with the way it constructs a roster in the near term. And Stevens himself acknowledged it’s a tricky puzzle to put together.


“The goal is to get in the mix, right? I think we have to get better to get in the mix. So we have some work to do this summer to do that. And we have, as [head coach] Ime [Udoka] mentioned several times, we've got a great foundation. We've got some people that are proven for sure. But I think, at the same time, we have to get better. And so that's the challenge.

"There are some things that we have to navigate from a financial perspective. With our limited ability to sign in free agency. We're gonna have to be creative, we're gonna have to continue to work, and we're gonna have to continue to see what's out there. But, listen, the competition is real. And being in the mix in the NBA is really difficult. And so that's our task, that's our goal. And this, by no means -- the first three weeks have been non-stop, they have been constant, and I don't see that changing any time soon. I think we're just gonna keep working at it and see what we can do.”

Here are a few of the avenues -- outside of a big-splash trade -- that Stevens can navigate to bolster this roster and the pitfalls that come with them:


Non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($6 million)

Even with the savings from the Kemba Walker-for-Al Horford swap, the Celtics still project as a taxpaying team and, short of renouncing their rights to free agent Evan Fournier, are likely limited to utilizing the non-taxpayer midlevel exception.

That $6 million won’t go far, at least when trying to compete for the more attractive veteran names on the open market, especially when others will have the $9.7 million non-taxpayer midlevel to chase the same players. Could Udoka work his previous relationships and lure Patty Mills here on the cheap with the promise of a robust role?

Unless the Celtics can snag a title-chasing veteran on a sweetheart of a deal, we’d assume Boston is more likely to use smaller chunks of the non-taxpayer mid-level to add end-of-the-roster talent. For instance, Boston could use the exception to sign both 2020 second-round pick Yam Madar and whoever they snag at No. 45 in this year’s draft to longer-term deals than the typical two-year minimum that most second-rounders sign for.


NBC Sports Boston Illustration/Getty Images
Could 2020 2nd Round pick Yam Madar make the roster?


This simply protects Boston if either player pans out. The 6-foot-3 Madar has played professionally in his native Israel since 2018 and could add deep point guard depth behind Marcus Smart and Payton Pritchard.


Trade exceptions

The Celtics are swimming in trade exceptions with the most notable being the $11 million remaining on the Gordon Hayward exception and a new $6.9 million exception generated from the Walker trade.

Here’s the tricky part: Boston cannot take back a player in a sign-and-trade this summer without invoking the hard cap, which would limit the team to spending to the apron. That wouldn’t be ideal both because of salary committed this year and because it could complicate the path to adding a third star if a desirable trade became available.

Boston’s ability to use those exceptions would likely be limited to acquiring players currently under contract. Here’s one example to consider: Could the Celtics engage the Chicago Bulls on veteran point guard Tomas Satoransky, who is on a partially guaranteed $10 million deal this season? The Bulls could use some financial flexibility and Boston could take Satoransky back into the remainder of the Hayward exception while adding some needed size and experience at the point guard spot.

Boston might desire to chase a higher grade of talent with its exceptions but the long-term quest for star talent complicates any short-term pursuit. For instance, the Celtics could engage the Cavaliers on Larry Nance Jr.’s availability with the goal of utilizing the rest of the Hayward TPE to nab an impact player at a position of need. But the Cavaliers would likely be seeking draft capital in return and Boston cannot sacrifice first-round picks without hindering potential deals for a third star.



Can the Celtics add a veteran with one of their many trade exceptions?


Tristan Thompson's expiring deal

With the addition of Horford and Moses Brown, and the fingers-crossed hope that Robert Williams can stay healthy next season, the Celtics should have motivation to move off Tristan Thompson’s $9.7 million salary.

The question, though, is whether there’s any way to utilize him as a positive asset that, again, wouldn’t require sending out draft capital in order to move. The Celtics had to spend a late first-round pick last season to get off Enes Kanter’s final year.

In the absence of a deal, it might be better for Boston to ride out the season with Thompson on the roster as deep depth. But the desire would certainly be to move him to a team that needs a veteran big with hopes of adding at a position of higher need (and, ideally, at a lower cost). The Celtics could always fill out the big-man depth chart with a bruiser or floor-stretcher on a minimum deal (maybe Aron Baynes is available if Toronto elects to punt on the non-guaranteed second year of his deal).


Paying to keep their own players

The next big domino for Boston this offseason is Fournier. The Celtics have his Bird rights and can splurge to retain him but there should be limits in what they are willing to spend -- or at least how long they are willing to spend.

The Celtics can potentially put themselves in position to sign a third star with cap space in the summer of 2023 but it would likely require the team to be prepared to move on from both Fournier and Smart by the end of the 2022-23 season.

Boston could pay a heftier price tag with hopes of enticing Fournier into a two-year pact that would put him back into free agency at age 30. Or, if Boston is convinced the path to a third star will certainly require a trade, they have a bit more flexibility to sign players to longer-term deals that could make the price tags a bit more digestible.

In that instance, Boston could bring back Fournier on something like a four-year, $72 million pact. It could engage Smart about an extension with potential to tack as much $77.2 million over four years onto the final year of his current deal. The Celtics could also try to lock up Robert Williams on a rookie extension that could be a value play if he stays healthy and blossoms in the starting role this season.

The Celtics would then move forward with a whole bunch of desirable players on modest pacts that would give them increased flexibility in chasing any big star that comes onto the market, all while getting an opportunity in the short term to see how the current parts work together in a more normal season.


So what could the summer actually look like?

Let’s finish this exercise by dummying what a potential busy-but-not-a-lot-of-big-waves summer might actually look like:

Over the next few months, Stevens and the Celtics …

Re-sign Fournier
Extend Smart and Robert Williams
Sign Madar and the No. 45 pick using mid-level exception
Trade for Satoransky using Hayward TPE
Trade Thompson and Carsen Edwards without taking back guaranteed salary
Sign Baynes (or center of his ilk) to minimum salary deal
Waive Jabari Parker’s non-guaranteed salary
Here’s what Boston’s depth chart would look like in the aftermath:

Ball-handlers: Smart, Satoransky, Pritchard, Madar
Wings: Tatum, Brown, Fournier, Nesmith, Langford
Swings: Grant Williams, No. 45 pick?
Bigs: Horford, Robert Williams, Aron Baynes, Brown


The Celtics would be committed to roughly $145.6 million in salary -- about $13 million above the tax line, a digestible number for ownership with potential to wiggle down if Boston wasn’t a surefire contender at the trade deadline -- and would have two 2-way slots to fill.  

A breakdown of 2021-22 salaries …

JAYSON TATUM...............$28.1
AL HORFORD..................$27.0
JAYLEN BROWN..............$25.3
EVAN FOURNIER.............$18.0
MARCUS SMART..............$14.3
TOMAS SATORANSKY.......$10.0
ROMEO LANGFORD..........$3.8
ROBERT WILLIAMS..........$3.7
AARON NESMITH............$3.6
GRANT WILLIAMS...........$2.6
ARON BAYNES................$2.4
PAYTON PRITCHARD........$2.1
MOSES BROWN..............$1.7
YAM MADAR...................$1.5
45TH PICK (2021)...........$1.5


The glaring need in this demo is adding a more surefire option at the 4, something the Celtics sorely lacked last season. Yes, Horford could play some power forward in double big lineups but Boston either needs Grant Williams to figure out how to thrive at that spot or upgrade (they could also retain Parker instead of Williams and hope they tap into his unfulfilled potential). Madar could also stay overseas one more season if the Celtics were content with their point guard depth but his desire to make the jump could force Boston’s hand.

The road map to making more impactful summer moves that doesn’t involve roster players from last season is a bit more challenging -- at least, again, without using first-round picks that could compromise chasing star-caliber talent further out.

Boston’s brain trust has to get creative with its trade exceptions. Otherwise the Celtics are left hoping they are an attractive enough team to snag intriguing veterans on below-market deals. In the absence of that, the team might be left pondering the Gorgui Diengs and Ish Smiths of the world to otherwise fill out the roster while banking on a more normal season and internal development will thrust this team forward.

But maintaining flexibility is vital if the end game is, sooner than later, adding a legitimate game-changing third star next to Tatum and Brown.



Bob
MY NOTE:  Why do we need Satoransky if we have Fournier, and vice versa?  Aren't they effectively the same player?  Forsberg has Satoransky as a "ball handler".  I never thought of him as a point guard, but that might just be me.  And if money is tight, and we need a 4, why would we spend on Satoransky instead of acquiring a 4?  And the #45 pick is not guaranteed, so that salary inclusion is superfluous unless we can draft a 4 that is far, far better than his #45 selection would suggest.  Al Horford played 28mpg last year in OKC until they shut him down to develop Moses (NOT because of injuries or decline in skills).  If Al can play 28mpg for us this year it can mostly be at 4, then we're doing better there.  I'm not a fan of Parker's defense (what defense?) but he can play 4, and maybe Ime can get more out of him.  If Ime can get Harden to buy into playing defense why not Parker too?  Forsberg's pieces tend to be pretty good but I don't like this one.  It makes assumptions I don't agree with.

Final FINAL note:  Brad's ability/willingness to resign Fournier (even if it's a sign-and-trade) and his ability to use what's left of the Hayward TPE will be the coda on Danny's legacy.  We have Fournier because of the Hayward TPE.  If all we get is a few months of Fournier because he leaves (because he wants more money than we can pay him or because actually having Evan Fournier on the team isn't as good as we thought it would be), then that was wasted TPE money.  If the rest of the TPE goes to waste then Hayward left for nothing.  He traded Theis to Chicago for two players, one of whom is gone and the other maybe soon be.  If we kept Theis and paid him the money for the 4, and we had Bird Rights on Theis and could go over the cap to do it, then we wouldn't be having this discussion about a 4, we'd have Horford and Theis.


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Bob, Saty has a much better career assist to turnover ration (4.2/1.4) than Evan's 2.7/1.7 - BUT
Evan is a much better shooter and scorer, although both shoot fritos well. Three years ago when Saty played PG for Washington he averaged 5.0 assists to 1.5 turnovers and 8.9 ppg in 27.1 mpg. Not quite CP3's 9.4/2.4 career average with 18.3 ppg in 34.6 mpg, but not bad. Kemba, in comparison, averaged 4.9/2.0 this season, so Saty is definitely not an upgrade there, and Kemba scored 19.3 ppg. A big dropoff, but Kemba's getting $36M this coming season vs. Tomas' $10M.

Meanwhile Payton averaged 1.8 assists, 0.8 turnovers, and 7.7 points in 19.2 mpg.

Marcus this year averaged 5.7 assists, 2.0 turnovers, 13.1 ppg in 32.9 mpg. Marcus and PP are IMHO better point guards than Tomas Satoransky.

I never heard of Satoransky

Do not have much time these weeks to post, but let me jump in quickly with the following:

Satoransky is a very solid back up PG. Used to have a couple of great seasons in Washington I think. No idea where he is now though.

Fournier is a "wing" or perhaps SG/SF to compare with above. Fournier has almost no "PG" skills. So they are different players fulfilling different needs indeed

Why would Boston sign Baynes.

Also, AH is no 4.  He cannot defend today's 4's.

Boston does not need to add a 3rd star.

The Celtics are not going to sign both EF and MS.

BU PG remains the #1 need.  They should be able to find someone for $6 million.

dboss wrote:Why would Boston sign Baynes.

Also, AH is no 4.  He cannot defend today's 4's.

Boston does not need to add a 3rd star.

The Celtics are not going to sign both EF and MS.

BU PG remains the #1 need.  They should be able to find someone for $6 million.

Totally agree that AH is not a 4 but a 5. In fact, KG was moved to 5 later in his career.

Intrigued by "Boston does not need a 3rd star." You mean that they don't need to trade for a 3rd star? Are you hoping for internal player development or that the roster is good enough. Based upon the next comment, I am guessing "good enough."

Totally agree that both EF and MS are not happening. Since you list BU 1 as the critical need, I am assuming that you see MS as staying and EF leaving.

prakash wrote:

dboss wrote:Why would Boston sign Baynes.

Also, AH is no 4.  He cannot defend today's 4's.

Boston does not need to add a 3rd star.

The Celtics are not going to sign both EF and MS.

BU PG remains the #1 need.  They should be able to find someone for $6 million.

Totally agree that AH is not a 4 but a 5.  In fact, KG was moved to 5 later in his career.

Intrigued by "Boston does not need a 3rd star."  You mean that they don't need to trade for a 3rd star?  Are you hoping for internal player development or that the roster is good enough.  Based upon the next comment, I am guessing "good enough."

Totally agree that both EF and MS are not happening.  Since you list BU 1 as the critical need, I am assuming that you see MS as staying and EF leaving.

I am expecting significant roster improvement from the pups plus a very solid center rotation.  Yes MS stays for at least the year.  EF defense is hideous so I see no good reason to overpay for a 3rd or 4th Best scorer.

Would like to explore this more with you.

As far as that 3rd star not this year and if Celts do not ink more players to deals longer than two years they could be in the mix to make a big deal

"I am expecting significant roster improvement from the pups."

Well, that is one nice way of putting it. I also believe that if the Celts don't see a significant improvement from Langford and/or Nesmith, the franchise will be in trouble.

After trading Kemba and as currently constructed, the Celts don't have enough scoring for a 48 mins period. One contributor to this conclusion is Al's minutes restriction. And as for projecting significant offensive contribution I only see Nesmith as a potential. Langford is more of a defensive and floor sense guy. I still see PP as making spot contributions.

Basically, Kemba trade is a net positive for me as Kemba, along with limited play making skills, was also a defensive/rebounding liability. So when I look at the roster re-balancing, perhaps there will be more play making from 5 (Al and RWill) and better rebounding. Scoring is a net loss (less so because of Kemba's injury management and shooting issues last year).

How do we cover for the scoring loss? That is the question that I am not being able to answer. Realistically, I project that improving "pups" will cover that bench scoring deficiency. But just Tatum and Brown are not sufficient.

I know that you like MS and I do too, he is a perfect glue guy for a contending team. He does the needed stuff when called upon: distribute, rebound, defend and (fingers crossed) shoot. However, this roster is not a top-tier roster.

As for not inking players to long deals (or any deals), I am assuming that you are suggesting that the Celts will have the cap space to attract a free agent in 2022 free agency once the pups grow up a bit and Smart, TT and (possibly) AH are off the books.

Very intriguing idea. That means that they don't extend RWill and keep him a restricted free agent, his cap hold will be small. That is a dangerous game: free agency can be fickle. Tatum's relationship with Bradley Beal can be a draw but what if we strike out (look at Miami's pursuit of Giannis).

Perhaps it is worth the risk!

As long as we have our two proven studs the franchise will be fine.  Finding the right mix of rotation guys and not flipping the roster over every year can and will yield positive results.  Obviously the team needs to realize growth from several young players and purge several young players and address one or two positional needs.

dboss wrote:As long as we have our two proven studs the franchise will be fine.  Finding the right mix of rotation guys and not flipping the roster over every year can and will yield positive results.  Obviously the team needs to realize growth from several young players and purge several young players and address one or two positional needs.

Yes. Perhaps I am taking a rhetorical thought too far.

I am with you that it will be exciting to see younger players develop.

Just that the Celts are close enough though not a tier-1 team right now.

r/bostonceltics
•Posted byu/TubbsterTV

It’s all going to plan.






Bob


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Good one BobH!

prakash wrote:

dboss wrote:As long as we have our two proven studs the franchise will be fine.  Finding the right mix of rotation guys and not flipping the roster over every year can and will yield positive results.  Obviously the team needs to realize growth from several young players and purge several young players and address one or two positional needs.

Yes.  Perhaps I am taking a rhetorical thought too far.

I am with you that it will be exciting to see younger players develop.

Just that the Celts are close enough though not a tier-1 team right now.

prakash

The big decision they have to make real soon (8/2/2021 FA begins)  will be on EF.  According to Spotrac   https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cba/tax/   The Celtics  have been a tax payer 1 time during the last 8 years.  In 2018 they paid a low $3.4 million penalty.  

What that tells me as a fan is that the Celtics obviously have managed their salaries to avoid the tax penalty.  So what has changed?  I do not think anything has changed and I expect Boston to kick the can down the road for another year.  The owners know they can make more money by not paying the luxury tax.  I know this probably sounds cynical but keeping a guy like EF does not put us in the title game so why would I pay a penalty if I owned the team?  

I am not in the least pessimistic about this team but mistakes were made in putting this team together.  We are in a correction mode.  I think Boston should just accelerate the process of getting AN, RL and  PP significantly more playing time.  Move TT for a PF or quality PG or something else and make some trades to pair down the roster.  Begin the process of acquiring future picks.

I expect the Celtics will be a better team this upcoming season but I do not think that have the flexibility to complete a makeover before the season begins.

Were Jason Tatum and Bradley Beal roommates or something?
The assumption that these guys are close and would love to play together and because of that we have an edge is just that..an assumption.
S**t, how confident are we that Tatum even wants to stay here longggggg term? I mean really, outside of Lobster rolls, dude doesn’t give me any hint of a clue as to what he wants and likes. Ummm JT says very little.
I’m hopeful that somehow we can get another player like Beal or someone without having to give up a Brown but this kissy kissy poo poo relationship thats portrayed regarding Beal and Tatum may be just a skosh overblown.